The battle between capital and labour may be surpassed by the battle between the working class and the not working class.

Rana Foroohar announces, “The age of wealth distribution is coming and will have major investment consequences”, “The age of wealth accumulation is over” August 5.

Indeed, but two questions stand out. 

First, for wealth to be redistributed some assets of the wealthy must be sold and, since precisely because of that there might be less interest among other to acquire those assets, the value of these could fall… with unexpected consequences. Here’s an example, what is best for New York City keeping property taxes and property values at current values, or increasing the taxes running the risk that property values fall and wealthy property owners run away somewhere else?

The second question is who is going to redistribute? Will a mechanism like an unconditional universal basic income be used, or will the usual redistribution profiteers be in charge of it?

Foroohar also announces, “Another battle will be between capital and labour.” That battle will always be present but, in these times when robots and AI seem to threaten jobs, the real battle could end up being between the working class and the not working class.

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2012/04/we-need-worthy-and-decent-unemployments.html

@PerKurowski

Should the tax on robots be high or low?

Sir, John Thornhill writes that Carl Benedikt Frey’s “The Technology Trap” informs us that “the number of robots in the US increased by 50 per cent between 2008 and 2016, each of them replacing about 3.3 jobs” “The return of the Luddites” July 13, 2019.

Those who are so replaced must surely have been generating some non-wage labour costs, like social security, that robots don’t. Therefore I frequently pose a question that, with the exception of some Swedes, no one wants to give me a definite answer to. It is:

Should we tax robots low so they work for us humans, or high so that we humans remain competitive for the jobs?

In an Op-Ed from 2014 titled “We need decent and worthy unemployments” I wrote: “The power of a nation, and the productivity of its economy, which so far has depended primarily on the quality of its employees may, in the future, also depend on the quality of its unemployed, as a minimum in the sense of these not interrupting those working.”

And over the years I have become convinced that in a universal basic income, large enough to help us out of bed to reach up to what is available, and low enough to keep us from staying in bed, lies our best chances to find the basic social stability we need to avoid societal breakdown,.

The financing of that UBI could include that those who exploit data on us citizens shared with us part of their ad revenues, a high carbon tax, and perhaps taxing robots and AI (though I do not know with how much)

PS. I case you wonder why some Swedes answered the question that has primarily to do with the existence in Swedish of the magical word “lagom”, meaning something like not too much not too little but just right. J

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/02/here-some-disorderly-lose-cannon.html

@PerKurowski

So if the taxman/(Big Brother) is now to get a share of the revenues some Big Tech obtain exploiting our personal data… who is going to defend us citizens?

Sir, you deem “The ability of some of the world’s most profitable companies to escape paying fair levels of tax…unfair both to other businesses which do not trade internationally and to governments, which lose substantial revenue” “France leads the way on taxing tech more fairly”, July 12.

It might be unfair to us taxpaying citizens but “unfair to the government”, what on earth do you mean with that? That sounds like something statist redistribution profiteers could predicate but, frankly, the government has no natural right to any income.

And since Big Techs like Facebook and Google obtain most of their revenues by exploiting us citizens’ personal data, then if there were some real search for fairness, a tax on ad revenues from such exploitation should better be returned directly to us, perhaps by helping to fund a universal basic income.

But what ‘s the worst with these taxes is that now effectively governments will be partners with these companies in the exploitation of our data. With such incentives do you really believe our interest will be duly defended? We, who are afraid of what all our data could feed with information a Big Brother government, must now recoil in horror from that we will also be suffering an even richer and more powerful Big Brother.

PS. Sir, it is not the first time I have warned you about this.

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/2018/03/our-need-to-concern-ourselves-about-use.html

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2019/05/i-have-some-ideas-about-what-could.html

@PerKurowski

Should we tax robots low so they work for us humans, or high so that we humans remain competitive?

Rana Foroohar references “a recent report into the US labour market conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute found that… the biggest reason for the declining labour share, according to the study, is that supercycles in areas such as commodities and real estate have made those sectors, which favour capital over labour, a larger part of the overall economy”, “The silver lining for labour markets”, July 1.

“Do we have a supercycles that favour capital over labour”? At least with respect to real estate, especially houses, the “supercycle” we have is caused by bank regulators much favoring credit to what’s perceived as safe over credit to what’s perceived as risky, without one iota of importance assigned to the need of allocating credit efficiently to the real economy.

Then Foroohar refers to the problem: “shifting labour market dynamics will sharpen the political divides that already exist. Many “left behind” cities are home to more Hispanics and African Americans. Job categories that will be automated fastest are entry-level positions typically done by the young. Meanwhile, the over-50s are at the highest risk of job loss from declining skills”. As “The solution” Foroohar writes; “shift policy to support human capital investment, just as we do other types of capital investment”

Sir, unfortunately it is so much more complicated than that. Just the problems with student debts we currently hear about, evidences that we might not really know about how “to support human capital investments”.

Before social order breaks down, we need to start considering the need to generate decent and worthy unemployments, creating an unconditional universal basic income that serves somehow as a floor and decide what to do with AI and robots. Should we tax these low enough so that they do as much jobs as possible for us humans, or should we tax them high enough for us humans to remain competitive for the jobs they do?

PS. On “a mere 25 cities and regions could account for 60 per cent of US job growth by 2030”, may I venture those cities will not include those with the largest unfunded social benefit plans.

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2007/01/should-not-higher-education-be-more-of.html

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2012/04/we-need-worthy-and-decent-unemployments.html

http://myubi.blogspot.com/2017/01/my-universal-basic-income.html

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/02/here-some-disorderly-lose-cannon.html

@PerKurowski

A Universal Basic Income deserves to be implemented fast but carefully, little by little.

Sir, Lex writes:“Either the Universal Basic Income (UBI) has to be unrealistically low or the tax rate to finance it is unacceptably high. Suppose the US provided its 327m inhabitants with $10,000 a year. That would be less than the 2018 official poverty threshold of $13,064. But it would cost 96 per cent of this year’s federal tax take.”“{Universal basic income: } money for nothing” May 20.

Let’s face it, the UBI, being an unconditional payment, eats into the franchise value of the redistribution profiteers, and so there are many out there wanting it never to be launched or, if it is, to be unsustainable. The usual way to sabotage it, is precisely arguing that if it is too small it does not solve anything, or if it is too large, it is fiscally unsustainable.

In my mind UBI, the basing building block for the decent and worthy unemployments we need before social order starts to break down, and therefore such an immensely valuable social experiment, deserves to start small, but fast, and grow, slowly, to where the future will and can take it. 

The tricks for a successful launch of a Universal Basic Income are:

1. That it helps all to get out of bed but that it never is so big so as to allow anyone to stay in bed. In other words that it is a stepping stool that helps everyone to reach up to whatever there is in the real economy.

2. That it starts small enough and grows little by little so as to guarantee its absolute revenue sustainability. It should never be an UBI for the current generation paid by future generations.

3. That its revenue sources should as much as possible be aligned with other social interests, like a carbon tax that helps fight climate change; or sources aligned with the new times, like taxes on robots, intellectual property and exploitation of citizens’ data.

Sir, the UBI should have as little as possible to do with government and politics, that because it should foremost be as a citizen to citizen’s affair.

PS. In countries blessed with high natural resource revenues, these should feed a much larger UBI, but that is because of the importance of reducing the concentration, in the hands of a centralized government, of income that does not come from taxes paid by citizens.

@PerKurowski

Will there now be opportunities for gig unionists?

Sir, Sarah O’Connor thinks the unions might have a good chance to adapt to the gig economy “Gig economy deals promise a brighter future for trade unions” February 27.

I am not so sure. There is a de facto class war in the real economy between those with jobs wanting better conditions and those just wanting a job. And that is what nourishes the gig economy.

Imposing on the gig economy benefits, is just like raising minimum wages, it just raises the bar for the offer of jobs. An unconditional universal basic income would instead provide a step stool to better reach up to whatever jobs are offered.

Of course those who benefit, politically or financially, from a conditional redistribution, or from negotiating on behalf of workers, do not like that option as it clearly erodes their job opportunities. 

How will unions handle it? I have no idea; perhaps there will be some gig unionists.

PS. In the same vein, perhaps Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a gig politician. We’ll see if she lands a second term. Having helped New York lose Amazon’s 25.000 well paying jobs does not bode well for here there. Perhaps she will get a call from another state.

PS. Amazon is one of those entities automating and robotizing the most. So it is a bit surprising to read that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez opines “We should not be haunted by the specter of being automated out of work. . . . We should be excited by that”

@PerKurowski

More than between left and right, the division is between tax paying citizens and witting or unwitting possible redistribution profiteers

Sir, Wolfgang Münchau writes, “Liberal democracy is in decline for a reason. Liberal regimes have proved incapable, of solving problems that arose directly from liberal policies like tax cuts, fiscal consolidation and deregulation: persistent financial instability and its economic consequences” “The future belongs to the left, not the right” February 25.

The risk weighted capital requirements placed on top of any natural risk aversion distorts the allocation of bank credit in favor of what is perceived as safe and against what’s perceived as risky, has nothing to do with liberal policies. The risk weights of 0% the sovereign and 100% the citizens, just puts crony statism on steroids.

Münchau also “The euro, too, was a liberal fair-weather construction.” That could be but when EU authorities assigned a 0% risk weight to all public debt of eurozone sovereigns, denominated in a currency that is not their domestic (printable) one no one could call that a liberal construction. It was idiotically dooming the euro to failure.

Sir, I feel left or right labels do not really define what we citizen are up against. Our real adversaries are those I have come to call redistribution profiteers. In my home land Venezuela, where the central governments some years has received 97% of all export revenues, that is easy to see. But even in the rest of the world that is happening, unfortunately without being sufficiently understood. Much of it is the result of citizens lacking the most basic societal information, namely how much their central and local government receive in income, from all taxes, per citizen. 

Of course taxes are needed but such per citizen data, published regularly, would also put pressure on improving the day-to-day quality of government bureaucracy. I mean we want our taxes to be spent well. Don’t we?

PS. As a self declared radical of the middle, or extremist of the center, I feel the best hope we now have to improve our societies is by means of an unconditional universal basic income. That UBI should be 100% paid for, be large enough to help all reach up to jobs in the real economy and be small enough so as not allow anyone to stay in bed.

@PerKurowski

For social harmony, in our time, we need a big enough and a small enough universal basic income.

Sir, Chris Giles refers to a “1994 OECD study [which] contained a warning of the dangers in store for countries that failed to tackle problems in their labour markets. “It brings with it unravelling of the social fabric.” “Improve employment rates to tackle inequality” February 15.

Giles opines, “Flexibility and social protection is a winning combination for advanced economies. While it does not prevent all employment problems, whether you take a right-of-centre “work not welfare” attitude or a left-of-centre “a hand up not a handout” stance, in general the combination works.”

I agree! An unconditional universal basic income, large enough to allow many to reach up to whatever jobs are available, is “a hand up not a handout”.

And an unconditional universal basic income, small enough so as not allow many to stay in bed, is also “work not welfare”.

So what’s keeping an UBI from being implemented?

To begin there’s not sufficient recognition of the real conflicts, basically a class war, between those who having a job want better pay and those who want a job at any pay.

But, first and foremost, it is those who profit, politically and monetary, on imposing their conditionalties when redistributing tax revenues, who strongly oppose a UBI, since it, naturally, would negatively affect the value of their franchise.

PS. The Chavez/Maduro regimes are clearly outliers among the redistribution profiteers but just as an example I once calculated that the 40% poorest of Venezuela had received less than 15% from the Bolivarian Revolution than what should have been their allotment had Venezuela’s net oil revenues been shared out equally to all. On the other side many of the odious profiteers pocketed many thousand times what should have been their share.

@PerKurowski

There's a new class war brewing, that between employed and unemployed.

Sarah O’Connor, discussing the challenges of the Gig economy writes, “Offering employment benefits to drivers might well help to snap up the best workers and hang on to them. But if customers were not to shoulder the cost, investors would have to.”“Uber and Lyft’s valuations expose the gig economy to fresh scrutiny” January 2.

Sir, to that we must add that if the investors were neither willing to shoulder that cost, then the gig workers would have to do so, or risk losing their job opportunities.

That conundrum illustrates clearly the need for an unconditional universal basic income. Increasing minimum wages or offering other kind of benefits only raises the bar at which jobs can be created, while an UBI works like a step stool making it easier for anyone to reach up to whatever jobs are available.

Sarah O’Connor also mentions how a collective agreement was negotiated between a Danish gig economy company and a union. Great, but let us not forget that in the brewing class-war between employed and unemployed, the unions only represent the employed… and we do need decent and worthy unemployments too, before social order breaks down.

PS. There's another not yet sufficiently recognized neo-class-war too. That between those who have houses as investment assets and those who want houses as homes.

@PerKurowski

One country, setting the example of a very high carbon tax, and sharing out all its revenues equally among all its citizens, would be a real game changer, in so many ways.

Sir you correctly argue, “Time is running out for us to halt dangerous rises in temperature…this is no longer a scientific or technological challenge, it is far more a political and social one.”, “How to rescue the global climate change agenda” December 27.

But when you hold “The depressing reality about climate change is that we could solve the problem, at manageable cost” that is not necessarily so. Sir, let’s face it, the truth is that there are way too many whose real interest, more than solving the challenges of climate-change, is to profit from the process, whether financially or politically, whether they are aware of it or not.

I’m as concern as anyone with the problem but in my case I really did not mind so much president Trump’s blindness, since I have always thought of the Paris agreement in terms of being just an interesting photo-op that would serve as a very dangerous pacifier.

So to align political and social incentives; to allow the market signaling how the problems should be best tackled; and to keep costly profiteering out of the process, I have for years thought the best alternative is a very high carbon/pollution tax which revenues are shared out in their totality equally among all citizens.

Why does that idea not meet more interest? The answer is clearly that the redistribution profiteers see that route as one that could very dangerously affect the value of their franchise, since there could be pressure for the revenues to be redistributed to all, a sort of unconditional variable basic income, should also for instance include all income generated by any existing gas/petrol taxes.

Our planet that I often refer to as our pied-à-terre needs a champion that decides to go down this route to set an example to follow. My grandchildren are Canadian so I would love Canada showing the way.

PS. This is exactly what I proposed how Mexico City should tackle its serious pollution problems in a letter you kindly published in May 2016.

@PerKurowski

Let us issue shares fed with some results of our economy to all of us, and then worship these.

Sir, Rana Foroohar asking “At what point does bad corporate behavior become willful malfeasance?” writes, “Facebook is the natural culmination of 40 years of business worshipping at the altar of shareholder value.” “Facebook puts growth over governance” December 25.

Really? If all the incredible developments around Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft and similar, results from “worshipping at the altar of shareholder value” then perhaps we should issue a share to each citizens that feeds on a substantial part of profits, like those of Facebook, or taxes, like carbon taxes, and have us all worshipping these shares, instead of trusting the acts of genius politicians or bureaucrats with agendas of their own. 

Those shares, which would pay out an equal unconditional societal dividend to all of us, is by the way what a Universal Basic Income is all about. 

Of course, as usually comes with new developments, there are new and serious problems, and data privacy is one of them. Foroohar asks “ Have we reached one of those watersheds when US and European authorities are going to step up and do something about it? Let us beware, there’s no guarantee that would not be even worse. 

Foroohar says she is reminded of “bank executives who had no understanding of the risks built into their balance sheets until markets started to blow up during the 2008 financial crisis” 

I am though more reminded of regulators who allowed banks to leverage over 60 times their equity with what rated as AAA could be very dangerous to our bank system, and less that 8.3 times with what rated below BB- bankers do not like to touch with a ten feet pole. I am reminded of regulators who assigned a risk weight of 0% to the sovereign of Greece, and thereby doomed that nation to its tragedy.

@PerKurowski

Poor Italy! So squeezed between inept Brussels’ technocrats and their own redistribution profiteers.

Sir, I read Miles Johnson’s and Davide Ghiglione’s  “Italy’s welfare gamble angers Brussels and worries business” November 10, and I cannot but think “Poor Italy”, squeezed between inept Brussels’ technocrats and redistribution profiteers.

“Italy’s welfare gamble”? That welfare which Brussels’ technocrats, for the purpose of bank capital requirements have with their Sovereign Debt Privileges of a 0% risk weight helped finance? Italy’s public debt is now about €2.450 billion, meaning over €40.000 per citizen? 

That 0% risk weight is alive and kicking even though Moody’s recently downgraded Italy's debt to “Baa3”, one notch above junk status and that even though it might not have yet considered that the euro is de facto not a real domestic (printable) currency for Italy. If that is not a welfare gamble by statist regulators on governments being able to deliver more than the private sector, what is? Poor Italy.

But then I read about a government proposal that could increase welfare payments to poor and unemployed Italians to as much as €780 a month but which eligibility and distribution criteria remain unclear and again I shiver. That sounds just as one more of those conditional plans redistribution profiteers love to invent in order to increase the value of their franchise. Poor Italy. 

For me a way out that would leave hope for the younger generation of Italians would have to include a restructuring of their public debt with a big haircut for their creditors; hand in hand with an unconditional universal basic income, that starts low, perhaps €100 a month, so as to have a chance to be fiscally sustainable.

And if that does not help, then Italy will have to count (again… as usual) on its inventive and forceful strictly citizen based “economia sommersa”, something that is not that bad an option either.

PS. Oops! I just forgot that most of that Italy debt is held by Italian banks, so perhaps a type of Brady bonds EU version could be used. Like Italy issuing €2.4 trillion in 40 years zero-coupon debt, getting an ECB guarantee for a substantial percentage of its face value, and allowing banks in Europe to hold these on book on face value; all so that Italy can use it to pay off its creditors could be a shooting from the hip alternative… and then of course have all pray for some inflation to reduce the value of that debt.

PS. I am not the one first speaking about Nicholas Brady, then US Treasury Secretary, approach in 1989. Here is William R. Rhodes “Time to end the eurozone’s ad hoc fixes” in FT November 2012.

@PerKurowski

It suffices for one single nation to set a high tax on carbon emissions and share out its revenues among all its citizens, to really begin saving our pied-a-terre.

Sir, Martin Wolf, whether it is true or not, is absolutely correct calling out: “It is five minutes to midnight on climate change”. We have no right to ignore that threat, even if its possibilities were low. “Inaction over climate change is shameful” October 23.

Wolf asks and answers: “So what needs to change? Net global CO2, methane and nitrous oxide emissions would need to fall to zero” though he also observes. “This is very unlikely to happen. That is no longer because it is technically impossible. It is because it is politically painful.”

It should not be! If only one nation went ahead and placed a big tax on carbon emissions, and shared out all resulting tax revenues equally, unconditionally, among all its citizens that would be a game changer… many would be politically pressured to jump aboard saving the planet that way.

Why does it not happen? Quite simply, the redistribution profiteers, those who profit from negotiating conditions, won’t touch with a ten feet pole an unconditional pay like this, less it spreads to other areas of their franchise, for instance by means of a Universal Basic Income.

Do I know? I come from Venezuela where nothing similar to its current tragedy would have happened had its oil revenues been shared out equally to all Venezuelans, and yet that possibility is rarely mentioned by the opposition, because there’s always an infinite pool of aspirants to be the next redistributors on turn.

Paris Accord? To me it was just a great photo-op for redistribution and fight against climate change profiteers that would do little to improve the chances for my grandchildren to live better.

More than a year ago the Climate Leadership Council proposed a carbon tax along the lines of what I describe here… seemingly they were silenced!

PS. For Mexico City, to combat pollution, I proposed just that..

@PerKurowski

What’s the safest way to fight climate change: by centralized planning or through the market?

Sir, Tim Harford writes: We should do more to encourage innovation that attacks the climate change problem… The most obvious first step (among several worth trying) is a stiff tax on carbon dioxide emissions” “Let’s innovate a way out of our climate crisis” October 13.

I agree 100% with that. The real question though is what is to be done with the revenues of such stiff tax? There are different options. 

The first to allow governments to manage these, setting it up for good results, but also a quite likely having it much captured by the war-on-climate-change profiteers. 

The second to share out these revenues equally among all citizens, like by helping to fund a Universal Basic Income, and so that it is the market that will take the decisions on what’s to be done.

Of course there are also pseudo market solutions, like those carbon emission permits trading that handed over to speculators, a market in non-transparent carbon emission indulgences.

Sir, I am totally for the sharing out all those tax revenues among the citizens option. That would minimize the distortions, and align everyone’s incentives in the fights against climate change and poverty.

PS. In May 2016 you published a letter I wrote on how to fight the pollution in Mexico City, which was based on these arguments.

http://ourpiedaterre.blogspot.com

@PerKurowski

The prime element of a Universal Basic Income is its unconditionality, and that’s why redistribution profiteers hate it the most

Sir, John Dizard titles“Sorry, but the world is not yet ready for universal basic income” October 11, but then he writes an article exposing exactly why we need a Universal Basic Income. Clearly he has not understood the real implications of UBI’s most important principle that of its unconditionality; never to be paid out because you are something different, like in jail.

I came to Universal Basic Income by means of my long fight for having all Venezuela’s net oil revenues shared out equally among all Venezuelans. That would have saved my homeland from its current tragedy. Instead those revenues fell into the hands of odious, besserwisser, corrupt redistribution profiteers… who paid it out generously to themselves and their friends… and with especially bad cheese to the rest of Venezuela.

“UBI…cannot be done within the bounds of the existing social contract in advanced countries.” Absolutely, as long as we allow redistribution profiteers to define those bounds.

Those redistribution profiteers who, circling their wagons in order to defend the value of their franchises, convinced Dizard of that “big tax rises and reductions in other benefits would be needed, even for a modest basic income”. Their most usual tool is using very high figures for that basic income. There is absolutely nothing that would stop advanced countries from beginning by paying out some US$ 200 per month to all its citizens. That would help oil the economy much more than a tax cut.

We urgently need something to help create decent and worthy unemployments in time, before all social order breaks down… and redistribution populists like Hugo Chavez and pals take over. 

@PerKurowski

The one most worthy and in need of a “teachable moment” is the European Union itself.

Gideon Rachman“fears that Britain is heading towards what counsellors call a “teachable moment”, otherwise known as a traumatic experience that forces people (or nations) into a fundamental reassessment.” “Britain is poised to learn a hard Brexit lesson” September 25

To that purpose Rachman mentions, “Greece experienced not triumph but humiliation – as its government was forced to accept the bailout that it had just rejected.”

Indeed, but the one who would best have been helped by a “teachable moment”, that would be the EU itself; which could have happened if only Greek citizens had sued EC, for allowing banks to lend to the Greek sovereign against zero capital of their own, which of course doomed the Greeks to their tragedy.

Does Britain or any EU nation really want to end up like Greece? I believe not. For that not to happen all Europeans need to call out their authorities on much more, instead of silently swallowing EU’s marketing efforts; thankful for being able to freely visit each other; something that when you get down to it does not really require a European Union for it, as neither does free trading, as neither does being able to work or reside in any EU nation for that matter.

How long will techno/bureaucrats, in EU or anywhere be able to extortionate more power for themselves, or increase the value of their redistribution franchises, by offering the citizens goodies these could obtain by other simpler means?

For instance the day an unconditional Universal Basic Income is adopted, that day we will be able to rebalance much more power in favor of citizens and lessen that of those all who engage in the crony statism that is killing us slowly. 

Does a teachable Brexit moment preclude something very good coming out from it? I don’t think so; I have too much respect for the Brits. Perhaps they can even help to save EU.

@PerKurowski

A Universal Basic Income could turn many marginal jobs into decent employments.

Sir, Sarah O’Connor writes: “One of the defining economic challenges for today’s policymakers is how to make service sector jobs more decent, with better pay, security training and opportunity for progression”, “Payday lender’s demise will not free workers from the labour trap” September 5.

I do not agree. Few years ago I wrote that before our policymakers invest (waste) scarce resources trying to guess were the markets are going and create jobs, we need to build the floor and create decent and worthy unemployments. 

“Better pays” raises the bar, something that could even kill jobs. A Universal Basic Income, that could start at a very low and absolutely sustainable level, could help many to reach up, more decently, to whatever jobs were available.

That would allow employment to be much more “the answer to financial distress, not the cause of it.”

@PerKurowski

We need to rethink productivity data, in light of so many “working hours” spent consuming distractions.

Sir, referencing Chris Giles’ and Gavin Jackson’s “Surge in low-value jobs magnifies UK productivity problem” of August 13, I believe that whenstating “increases in low-wage jobs in bars, social work and warehouses have served to hold back UK productivity growth” it hints at sort of causation that might not really be there.

I say so because we have entered a new era that requires redefining entirely the ways we measure productivity. 

Some months ago, in Bank of England’s “bankunderground” blog, we read a post by Dan Nixon titled “Is the economy suffering from the crisis of attention?”. It said, “With the rise of smartphones in particular, the amount of stimuli competing for our attention throughout the day has exploded... we are more distracted than ever as a result of the battle for our attention. One study, for example, finds that we are distracted nearly 50% of the time.”

Nixon, answering the question posed in the title wrote, “The most obvious place to look would be in productivity growth, which has been persistently weak across advanced economies over the past decade.”

But, what if instead of being recorded as distractions during working hours, these were to be recorded as a private consumption that reduces the effective working hours? Would that not increase GDP and reduce working hours, and thereby point instead to a dramatic increase in productivity?

In the same vein, would then not real-salaries, instead of stagnating, have been increasing a lot?

And what about our employment and unemployment data if the time used to consume distractions during working hours would not be counted as work? 

Sir, it behooves us to make certain how we measure the economy gets updated to reflect underlying realities. 

Perhaps then we are able to understand better the growing need for worthy and decent unemployments.

Perhaps then we are able to better understand the need for a Universal Basic Income, not as to allow some to stay in bed, but to allow everyone a better opportunity to reach up to whatever gainful employments might be left, like those “low-wage jobs” that it behooves us all, not to consider as “low value jobs”

@PerKurowski

Trade tariffs revenues should at least try to compensate those hurt the most.

Sir, John Authers writes of the facts of life that give “Free trade the strange ability to convince everyone, rich or poor, that they have lost by it”, “Nafta’s losers always drown out its winners” August 10.

Tariffs are used to supplant market decisions. Sometimes it could be good, like for instance when making sure your “Arsenal Of Democracy” is fabricated on homeland, but most often it is bad, only helping to enrich those capitalizing on crony statism.

Whatever, in any case there should be much more transparency on who are then going to decide, instead of the market, on the use of all revenues provided by the tariffs.

I argue this because, if for instance 100% of those tariff revenues went to finance a Universal Basic Income, then at least those most hurt would be partially compensated… and the redistribution profiteers would think less favorably of these tariffs.

@PerKurowski

A Universal Basic Income is a prime free market oriented “instrument of national togetherness”

Sir, Janan Ganesh writes about how the fact that “America has a large, complex and redistributive state…with some public assent”, has moved the floor for many traditional republicans, and has favored Trump”, “The end of the Republican free-market ticket”, August 2.

If you are a democrat or a republican who do not belong to the establishment, and who do not like the idea of having to court bureaucrats for any assistance that might be needed more and more, how do you deal with that?

As a Venezuelan, nauseated from seeing how its government has handled centralized oil revenues, I pray for all citizens to be in their own hands, using the free markets to decide what to do, than for them to be in the hands of odious redistribution profiteers. And so I do favor a Universal Basic Income.

And I believe an UBI could also signify a very important unifying bridge sorely needed in a world with so much polarization.

Of course since redistribution profiteering or the exploitation of crony statism exist in all political camps, we should expect all its enemies to circle their wagons and do what they can to stop UBI from reducing the value of their franchise. One of their first lines of defense, is helping to push an UBI into promising way too much, so that it clearly become fiscally unsustainable. Another one is arguing that would exacerbate social laziness.

I have no idea where long-term a UBI would lead us, but I wish we could start with one small enough to help everyone to get out of bed, but not so large so as to allow anyone to stay in bed. Around the corner, or probably in many ways even here, we will need decent and worthy unemployments, and UBI must surely be part of the toolbox for that. 

As a UBI does in fact represent a Societal Dividend, it should appeal to both those who want more free markets and those who focus more on social responsibilities. That sounds very much like an instrument for the centre-left-right to embrace the free market and “the state as an instrument of national togetherness”.

http://myubi.blogspot.com/2017/01/my-universal-basic-income.html

@PerKurowski