Showing posts with label easy financing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label easy financing. Show all posts

November 18, 2018

These are the houses that Jack built, baby, and their prices reaches up into the sky

Sir, I refer to Merryn Somerset Webb’s “UK property: The recent gains could turn out to be a huge historical anomaly” House and Home, November 17.

I would argue that more than an anomaly we are living the results of a humanly understandable political mistake of historical proportions, namely that of trying to make houses affordable by means of many preferential conditions.

After society, God knows why, decided that a home owned was much more valuable than a home rented, many different favors were awarded the purchasing of houses, many like those Somerset Webb describes, but also some other much harder to detect.

For instance, regulators decided that since they perceived residential mortgages as very safe, banks would be allowed to hold comparatively little capital against these. Since banks could therefore leverage much more with residential mortgages than with many other assets, banks had higher incentives to give a house buyer, who otherwise would not be able to buy a house, an easy credit.

That easy credit to the first buyer increased the demand of houses, so houses prices in general went up; and so the next time when a second buyer also wanted help to afford the house, you had to supply him with even more easy credit than what you helped the first buyer with… and so up and up and up it goes…

And those who own houses benefit and feel enriched by the increase in the price of houses are happy, while those who have not been able to jump on that bandwagon feel more and more frustrated, because the see their dream of a “real” home being made less and less affordable. That is of course something that the redistribution and polarization profiteers try to capitalize on.

And parents, so as to get their children out of the basement, now have to use their house to obtain the finance needed in order to help their children to make the down payments on the houses they want to buy. The sad story is that if banks had not invested so much in “safe” residential mortgages and had perhaps invested more in loans to entrepreneurs who could give them jobs, the children would have been able to afford, on their own, the lower priced houses. 

And so houses morphed from being only homes into also being investment assets. How much of current high house price is represented by the home value and how much by the easy credit value is anyone’s guess, but it sure would be interesting to see how much of their prices.

Whatever, the moment all those investment assets are to be cashed in by too many at the same time, for instance to cover some retirement costs, it will be ugly, for house owners, and for the banks, and for the taxman who has also been so much financed by the house bubble, in fact it will be ugly for all.

It all makes me remember Alan Price’s “Oh my, my, my, my, my, my, my, it makes you wanna cry. This is the house that Jack built, baby, and it reaches up into the sky”

These were the houses that Jack built... with plenty of easy credit, and which were taxed by the taxman


@PerKurowski

July 25, 2018

More important than giving millenials affordable housing, is to help them afford houses. C'est pas la même chose.

Sarah O’Connor writes, “Home ownership rates for young people have been declining for decades as house prices have detached from incomes.” “It’s time for millennials to fight for our rights” July 25.

Not really so! It is the price of homes that have become detached from the price of houses, as these have turned into investment havens.

Access to credit in preferential terms (like generating for the banks low capital requirements) and the support O’Connor mentions of “Bank of England [with low] interest rates and quantitative easing [tried] to shore up the economy, in part by propping up house prices” has made houses “safe” investments in a turbulent world.

When O’Connor mentions, “Loosening credit standards to help more millennials buy homes would be one method” my answer would be in the form of the following riddle:

How much easy financing has now to be provided to house buyers, only in order to finance the easy finance provided all house buyers previously? 

O’ Connor recommends “It would be better to build more houses in areas of high demand, including more social housing” and to “take measures to boost productivity so incomes rise”.

The first is indeed a sensible recommendation, for all times, but the second requires among other to stop favoring with the risk weighted capital requirements for banks the access of credit for the safer present (consumption - houses) which means de facto disfavoring that of the “riskier” future (production - entrepreneurs).

Let me be clear much more important than helping to give the young access to affordable housing, is to help them to afford houses; which of course c'est pas la même chose.

What I most miss though in O’Connor’s article is a reference to a Universal Basic Income. If the society is not able to generate decent and worthy unemployments, then increasing social conflicts will prove to be the greatest menace to the millennials (and to us oldies too)

@PerKurowski

March 21, 2018

Preferential access to bank credit for those buying houses have also turned houses in attractive investments, and so a house is no longer just a house

Sir, I refer to Sarah O’Connor’s “Cities only work if they accommodate rich and poor” March 21.

She is correct although it would be more precise saying that cities only work if they accommodate all those workers required to make a city work.

Here is my take on this issue.

By politicians and regulators giving so much preference to the purchase of houses, the prices of houses have been inflated beyond reflecting the need of houses, and so have also turned houses into attractive investments. That has created a financial disequilibrium because most workers who would anyhow struggle to pay for just houses, will find it impossible to service mortgages that also reflect the value of investment assets.

Most politicians would naturally want to be seen as helping people buy affordable houses, but they do wrong in that. What they should do is to help people to be able to afford housing, something which is absolutely not the same thing.

Before we clear out this distortion, our cities will suffer from what O’Connor’s describes. Alternatively, current house asset owners, might be required to start building houses where they allow the indispensable workers to live at a reduced rate… something that could affect the value of their houses.

In many places that are too distant for the firefighters to arrive in time, we have already heard of building houses in order to provide homes close by to these.

PS. For the purpose of the capital requirements for banks regulators have risk weighted  residential mortgages with 35% and loans to entrepreneurs with 100%, which means bank can leverage much more with residential mortgages than with loans to entrepreneurs, which means banks earn much higher expected risk adjusted return on equity with residential mortgages than with loans to entrepreneurs, which mean we will end up sitting in houses without the jobs that could provide the income to service mortgages or utilities.

PS. How much of current house prices is the direct result of easy financing? I ask because it would be interesting to know how much we are financing with easy financing of houses the easy financing of houses.

PS. One of the biggest pension crisis will be when we see all those who trusted houses to be safe investments, trying to cash out in order to convert these back into main-street purchase capacity to use in older days L

PS. Too much preferential finance for the purchase of houses, which increases demand for houses, which increases houses prices, and turns safe homes into risky investment assets, also promotes inequality as those without a house are further left behind… until L


@PerKurowski