What if the Norwegian citizens had had the chance to manage their own individual oil funds or share of oil revenues?

Sir, I refer to David Sheppard’s “Norway fund to sell off oil shares” November 17

At first sight we are of course all impressed with that the Norwegian Oil Fund has been able to accumulate US$200.000 per Norwegian. 

The question is though, had the Norwegian oil revenues been paid out to and invested directly by the Norwegians, would they in average have more or less than US$200.000, and would the Norwegians, in average, have been stronger citizens as a result of having to take on that responsibility on their own?

And when we read that what we always thought as the Norwegian Oil Fund or the Norwegian Government Petroleum Fund, is now known officially as the Government Pension Fund Global, the natural question we have is if all that money is now only to go to pensioners? If I was a young Norwegian with ideas of my own and in need of capital, I am not sure I would look too favorably at that possibility.

And let’s be honest about the results. Much of it, or perhaps even most of the financial returns obtained, which are perhaps more than the oil proceeds injected, have been direct consequences of US and Europe having kicked the 2007-08 crisis can down the road, injecting huge amount of liquidity with QEs which, together with the ultralow interests maintained, have inflated all financial assets.

Sir, I was appointed the first diversification manager of the Venezuelan Investment Fund created in 1974, basically a fund very similar to the Norwegian Oil Fund. It took me only two weeks to become convinced it would not work, and so I left.

All this sort of centralized accumulations of wealth sooner or later loose contact with the final beneficiaries and with their original purpose and fast (Venezuela) or little by little (Norway) begin functioning more in terms of the wants and needs of those managing it.

When we now start reading about how that Norwegian fund begins to assign more and more value to issues like sustainability and ethics, which of course is good, we do wonder though how much of that is more based on managerial show-off than on a real mandate from its final beneficiaries.

Again, if I was that young Norwegian in need of capital, or just wanted to construct my own retirement nest, I can easily hear me saying… Great, you do all that but, before you start, give me my share. 

And let’s face it. One reason Norway’s government have been able and willing to set aside oil revenues in the fund is that they receive other type of compensations, like gas/petrol consumption taxes. Norway has the highest gas prices in the world, about $2.40 per liter (Venezuela less than $1 cent per liter)

I hear you Sir. “Here is just a Venezuelan being envious of the $200.000”.

Of course I am envious but, believe me when I say, that as a defender of oil revenue sharing, I would much have preferred my fellow citizens to have only a tenth of that amount, but in the process have learned more of how to stand on their own, and freeing themselves from having to depend on redistribution profiteering governments or fund managers.

PS. What about the Norwegian Fund selling off oil shares? Sounds reasonable but their current 6 per cent invested in the oil and gas sector is not that exaggerated either. Can you imagine what the Norwegians would say if Norway runs out of oil and the Fund stands there with no investments in oil?

@PerKurowski

As a bare minimum the real Venezuela should now create a Recovery Inc., to get back what’s been stolen from it.

Sir, I read John Paul Rathbone’s and Shawn Donnan’s “Markets urged to prepare as IMF weighs exceptional Venezuela rescue” October 17. Sadly it misses some important points.

Suppose that there is a new government… because with the current one there is nothing to be done, there should be nothing to be done.

Then you can initiate a worldwide recovery effort of what was stolen from Venezuela and that could, should, yield let us estimate at least $50bn, and that after the bounty hunters or whistleblowers have been paid their commissions.

If you stop giving away gas in Venezuela, something I am trying for the World Bank or the IMF to declare as a punishable economic crime against humanity, then you would release, in a sustainable way, billions in resources year after year. Look at it this way, Venezuela sells gas (petrol) at less than $1 cent per gallon, Norway sells it at $2.07 a gallon.

Also, just clearing the air of the current bandits, would release the energies of at least a million of Venezuelans full of initiatives that are dreaming of returning to their country.

And, if there is not a new government, then an exiled government, like De Gaulle’s French government in London during World War II, and which counts with a legitimate National Assembly, and a legitimate Supreme Court (in exile), could, should, at least get going with Venezuela’s Recovery Inc.

Of course, at the end of the day, the oil revenues must begin to be shared out directly to all Venezuelans, instead of being manipulated by the chiefs of turn, because a tragedy in waiting like Venezuela’s current one, should never be permitted to happen again. 

http://radicaldelmedio.blogspot.com/2009/10/recuperadora-inc.html

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/10/world-bank-please-dare-tackle-issue-of.html

https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/archive/policy_innovations/commentary/000083

@PerKurowski

Should it be required for a sovereign to be placed on a “The Bad” list, for its financiers to be morally concerned?

Sir, Jonathan Wheatley and Eric Platt write: “Just how much room for manoeuvre does cash-strapped Petróleos de Venezuela have? It is the question that has dogged investors, economists and the South American country’s own people as the government of Nicolás Maduro struggles to manage a crippling debt burden and cling to power” “Debt swap respite for Venezuela state oil group” October 25.

No! I can assure you Sir that most Venezuelan’s, are much more concerned with where they will get food or medicines for today, and about whether they should dare to walk out on the street, than with PDVSA’s debt.

And that should also concern PDVSA’s creditors, because it is truly a shame if they are totally uninterested in what human right violations they might be financing.

For instance, petrol (gas) is still being sold at about US$ 1 cent per liter, only so that government partners can make a killing smuggling it over the borders.

Really, it surprises me that these type of issues seem so irrelevant to FT. 

@PerKurowski ©

FT, where’s the real hurdle? In PDVSA’s debt swap, or in PDVSA and Venezuela’s government?

Sir, Eric Platt and Jessica Dye write: “Analysts and bankers remain optimistic that a deal will be clinched, as a default would cut both Venezuela’s and PDVSA’s credit lines with lenders and deepen the country’s recession.” “PDVSA debt swap plan hits hurdle” October 11.

Really? Could it not be so that helping to finance one of the demonstratively most inept governments ever could only deepen and prolong a recession that, right after a huge oil boom, in a country that states it holds the largest oil reserves in the world, has its citizens starving and without access to medicines?

Venezuela is in utter disorder, and its people in utter despair, and still its government sells gas at less than US$ 4 cents a gallon, thereby allowing some to smuggle it out and make juicy profits. That, no matter how you look at it, is a de facto economic crime against humanity.

So “T Rowe Price owned $274m worth of the 2017 bonds”. Does T Rowe Price really think that its clients, though they might make huge speculative profits in the short term, are truly benefitted long term by financing an entity as mismanaged as T Rowe Price knows PDVSA is? Would T Rowe Price’s investors have liked it if Venezuelans had financed a PDUSA and thereby helped keep a hypothetical authoritarian regime in power? When is what is being financed going to be an issue? Or is it really that you can finance anything at all, as longs as the risk premiums are juicy?

Sir, to be clear, I am not writing this solely in “opposition” to the current Venezuela government. For decades, long before the Chavez years, I have been opposed to odious debts, odious credits and odious borrowings… anywhere.

PS. I am supposing no one would dare to expose such naiveté as arguing that lending to PDVSA is distinct from lending to the Venezuela government.

@PerKurowski ©

In Venezuela there’s much human suffering because of lack of food and medicines; but petrol is 1 US$ CENT PER LITER!

Sir, I refer to your editorial "Venezuela’s problems can no longer be ignored" August 19.

Of course as a Venezuelan I pray for my country to get out of that tragic black hole into which crooks or naïve fools has submerged it controlling 97% of its export revenues. 

When we get out of it, which we will, we must see to never to fall into it again. And what we must do for that is to share out all oil revenues directly among the citizens, so to have our governments operate solely with the tax revenues provided by We the People.

But for the rest of the world, there also are important lessons to be learned. One is that stupid and irresponsible economic policies can cause just as much violation to human rights than any of those other sources usually identified. And when those economic crimes are especially grievous, those responsible for them should be prosecuted in international courts.

For instance, right now when there is huge human suffering in Venezuela, because of the lack of food and medicines; petrol (gas), even after it was raised a mindboggling 6.000 percent in February this year, is still being sold at less than ONE US$ CENT PER LITER - FOUR US$ CENTS PER GALLON.

That petrol should be sold, as a minimum, at its world price as a commodity. And the resulting revenues shared out equally to all, so that its citizens could be better positioned to deal with the de-facto state of emergency that exists; and petrol consumption would go down, and more petrol could be exported, and more food and medicines imported.

@PerKurowski ©

http://theoilcurse.blogspot.com

In the midst of the Venezuelan pandemonium, is not selling petrol at less than $2 cents a liter a crime?

Sir, Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, describing Venezuela’s current plight writes: “Food and medicine are scarce. Anemic oil prices and a heavy debt load leave scant foreign exchange for the import sector. “Venezuela sets the stage for a chaotic and tragic exit” May 30.

What’s worse, within the pandemonium, few react to that petrol, even after it was raised a 6.000 percent in February this year, is still being sold at less than $2 cents per liter. Perhaps the most serious problem in Venezuela is not Maduro, but the lack of a responsible elite, that is willing to speak up on what is wrong and right.

If the price of petrol sold domestically was raised to its world value, and the resulting revenues all paid out in cash, to all citizens, that could provide them with what they might need to cover the basic food needs. And, to top it up, that would free a lot of petrol for exports.

I myself have tried for long to have the Organization of American States to look into if whether giving away petrol almost for free, while there is lack of food and medicines, does not qualify as an economic crime against humanity. Seemingly OAS/OEA prefer to look the other way.

@PerKurowski ©

Is the concept of economic crimes against humanity too much for governments to handle?

Sir, Andres Schipani writes that Henrique Capriles, with respect to the government’s actions on the recall referendum says: “they will be blocking the only democratic solution we have now. That will be throwing petrol on to the fire.” “Maduro rival rallies revolt in Venezuela”

But, what about throwing some petrol on the hunger in Venezuela? Even after it was raised a mindboggling 6.000 percent in February this year, petrol is still mindboggling being sold at less than $2 cents per liter.

Luis Almagro, the head of the Organisation of American States finally speaks out on the issue of Venezuela, good for him. The previous decade, under the chair of José Miguel Insulza, OAS’s silence was just too embarrassing.

But Almagro should also ask the Inter-American Commision on Human Rights: Is not the giveaway of petrol in a country where there is lack of food and medicines, an economic crime against humanity?

I formally asked IACHD that in 2015, and in 2009 by means of an Op-Ed in Caracas, but I never received any response. I wonder, is the sole concept of economic crimes against humanity just too much for governments to handle?

In Venezuela I have proposed to increase the locally sold petrol to at least its world price as a commodity, and share out with all citizens the new revenues. In this way most citizens would be a bit better positioned to deal with the de-facto state of emergency that exists. And petrol consumption would go down, and more petrol could be exported.

@PerKurowski ©

Redistribution profiteers who committed economic crimes against humanity sequestered Venezuela

Sir, I refer to Ricardo Hausmann’s sadly true “It could be too late to avoid catastrophe in Venezuela” February 4.

These days when so much is said about fighting inequality, Venezuela is a tragic example of what happens when a country falls into the hands of shameless redistribution profiteers. All countries need to develop more transparent government accounts that allows us them to measure the real costs of redistributing wealth.

For instance in the case of Venezuela the fact that the prices of petrol (gas) have not increased once since Chavez came to power 17 years ago has signified that just in free petrol the country has over the last years given away more than in all their other social programs put together… if that is not an economic crime against humanity (and environment) what is. I have tried to denounce it to the Organization of American States but they are more interested in conventional and traditional crimes against humanities.

Over the last 15 years the poor of Venezuela might not have received even 10 percent of the oil wealth that was redistributed… which would indicate a redistribution commission of 90 percent.

Clearly if other methods like direct oil revenue sharing with citizens had been used, the 10-90% figures here could have been 98-2%. And of course, had the oil revenues belonged to the citizens, the government could not have “used it to quadruple the foreign debt.”

Set into this context it is obvious that all should closely study experiments like Finland’s substituting with a basic monthly income for all the bureaucrats’ management of benefits.

PS. One of the most sad events in my lifetime has been when the US did not follow through on the idea of promoting oil revenue sharing in Iraq. Had it done so the whole middle east, and of course Venezuela, if following the example, could have been facing much better realities.

@PerKurowski ©

Former Executive Director at the World Bank, for Venezuela, 2002-04