December 04, 2019

Bank regulators rigged capitalism in favor of the state and the “safer” present and against the “riskier” future.

Sir, Martin Wolf with respect to needed financial sector reforms mentions “Radical solution: raise the capital requirements of banking intermediaries substantially, while reducing prescriptive interventions; and, crucially, eliminate the tax-deductibility of interest, so putting debt finance on a par with equity.” “How to reform today’s rigged capitalism” December 4.

What has rigged capitalism the most during the last decades is the introduction of risk weighted bank capital requirements which rigs the allocation of credit in favor of the sovereign and that which is perceived, decreed or concocted as safe, and against the credit needed to finance the riskier future, like SMEs and entrepreneurs.

That distortion is no eliminated with general higher capital requirements like the leverage ratio introduced with Basel III, but only by totally eliminating the credit risk weighting.

Wolf expresses great concern “over the role of money in politics and way the media works” I agree. The reason why media in general, and FT in particular, have refused to denounce the stupidity with credit risk weighted bank capital requirements based on that what bankers perceive risky being more dangerous to our bank systems than what bankers perceive safe, is most probably not wanting to trample on bankers’ toes. As is, bankers are allowed to leverage the most; to earn the highest risk adjusted return on equity, on what they think safe. Is that not a bankers dream come true? As is, we are facing the dangerous overpopulation by banks of all safe havens, while the rest of us are then forced out to the risky oceans in search of any returns. 

“A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for.” John A. Shedd.


@PerKurowski

November 30, 2019

Artistic inheritance does not cause excessive centralized powers, as too often natural resources do...though intellectual inheritance could

Sir, Janan Ganesh discussing the possible effect on Europe of its “intellectual and artistic inheritance” refers to the natural“resource curse” in terms of retarding development, as “The temptation is to coast on the proceeds from the natural assets.” Clive James and Europe’s culture curse” November 29,

Indeed, that could play a role but the by far worst part or the “resource curse”, is the fact that its revenues are way too often way too much centralized in way too few hands. 

Take my homeland Venezuela. Had its (geographical) liberator Simon Bolivar not accepted to impose in Venezuela in 1829 Spain’s mining ordinances, which deemed all natural resources under earth to be the property of the King/state, our destiny would have been quite different. As is, as someone from another oil cursed nation mentioned to me years ago, “we do not live in a nation, we live in somebody else’s business”, the redistribution profiteers’.

And this does not apply to the artistic inheritance’s culture curse. The Museum of Louvre might centralize a lot of cultural treasures, but it does not remotely benefit as much from it, as do the citizens of Paris.

Of course, when it comes to an “intellectual culture curse”, which could result from handing over too much influence to too few intellectuals, like to Ph.D.’s and opinion makers, that can contain all the inheritance in a silo, in a mutual admiration club, all bets are off, in Europe and everywhere.


@PerKurowski

November 27, 2019

Beware when issues, no matter how important, like climate change, become discussed because of their distraction value

Sir, Martin Wolf, after taking on a history tour argues: “A positive-sum vision of relations between the west, China and the rest has to become dominant if we are to manage the economic, security and environmental challenges we face”. That said Wolf frets our chances our small “given the quality of western leadership, authoritarianism in China and rising tide of mutual suspicion”, “Unsettling precedents for today’s world”, November 27.

Indeed, use history to illuminate the present, but never allow it to hide it. In the same vein let’s also include the caveat of not using any of those challenges to distract us from other just as important issues, like the very delicate state of our financial system.

Consider the following facts: 

1. As a response to the 2008 (AAA securities) and the 2011 (Greece) crises, by means of QEs and similar, there were/are huge injections of liquidity. 

2. Since the distortions produced by the risk weighted capital requirements were not eliminated, our banks have dangerously overcrowded all “safe” harbors, like sovereigns and residential mortgages.

3. As a result the rest of market participants had to take to the risky oceans like highly leveraged corporates debts and lending to emerging countries.

4. To top it up plenty of other high debt exposures abound, e.g. student and credit card debts.

5. Finally there are huge unfunded social security and pension plans all around the world.

And I refer to ”distraction” because everywhere we turn, we find regulators and central banks frantically looking for excuses to talk about other things, so as not have to answer some basic questions like:

Why do you believe that what bankers perceive as risky, is more dangerous to our bank system than what bankers perceive as safe?

Do you understand that allowing banks to leverage differently different assets distorts the allocation of credit to the real economy?

Do you understand that the other side of the coin of decreeing a zero risk to sovereigns, just because they can print the money to repay, is that it implies bureaucrats know better what to do with bank credit they are not responsible for, than for instance entrepreneurs?

EU you assigned a zero risk to all eurozone sovereigns’ debts even though none of these can print euros. What do you think would have happened to the USA’s union, if it had done the same with its 50 states, even though none of these can print US$ on their own?

Sir, when an architect takes on a project, he usually signs a contract by which he assumes personal responsibility “for the facility and its systems' ability to function and perform in the manner and to the extent intended” Should not bank regulators sign similar contracts?


@PerKurowski

November 16, 2019

Current bank regulations are evidence free rather than evidence based

Tim Harford suggests, “Pick a topic that matters to you”, “How to survive an election with your sanity intact” November 16.

Ok. Bank regulations. And Harford argues, “Politics… is now evidence-free rather than evidence-based”. Indeed but so are current bank regulations. 

What has caused all big bank crises was something ex ante perceived very safe that ex post turned out very risky… in other words incorrect risk assessments.

But instead of basing the capital requirements based on this empirical evidence, regulators concocted risk-weighted capital requirements based on credit risks being correctly perceived. And so they assigned a meager 20% risk-weight to dangerous AAA rated, and 150% to the so innocous below BB- rated. 

If I were a regulator I would consider my role to guard against the possibility that bankers could perceive risks incorrectly, instead of, like the Basel Committee has done, betting our bank systems on bankers always being correct. Sir, wouldn’t you too?

Harford suggests, “When someone expresses an opinion, whether you agree or disagree, ask them to elaborate. Be curious.”

Unfortunately, when thousand of times I’ve asked the question “Why do you believe that what’s perceived as risky by bankers is more dangerous to our bank systems than what they perceive as safe?” that has not generated much curiosity. What it has generated is a lot of defensive circling of the wagons. “There again goes Kurowski with his obsession”

Harford also reminds us of Alberto Brandolini’s “bullshit asymmetry” principle, “The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it.” With soon 3.000 letters to FT on the topic of “subprime banking regulations”, I can sure attest to that being true.


@PerKurowski

November 15, 2019

If Brexit goes hand in hand with a Baselexit, Britain will at least do better than now.

Sir, Martin Wolf titles, [and I add], “Irresponsible promises will hit brutal economic reality" November 15.

Just like the irresponsible and populist promise of “We will make bank systems safer with our risk weighted bank capital requirements" and that is based on that what bankers perceive as risky is more dangerous than what they perceive as safe, brutally hits our real economies.

Wolf quotes the Institute for Fiscal Studies with, “over the last 11 years [before any Brexit], productivity — as measured by output per hour worked — has grown by just 2.9 per cent. That is about as much as it grew on average every 15 months in the preceding 40 years.”

And I ask, could that have something to do with that Basel II that introduced capital requirements that allowed banks to leverage their equity much more with the “safer” present than with the “riskier” future, for instance 62.5 times with what has an AAA to AA rating while only 12.5 times with a loan to an unrated entrepreneur? Of course it has. With it regulators gave banks the incentives to dangerously overpopulate safe havens, and to abandon their most vital social purpose, which is to allocate credit efficiently to the real economy.

So compared to the damage done by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision any foreseen negative consequences of Brexit seem minuscule.

And with respect to obtaining financial resources for financing the investments in infrastructure that Wolf so much desires, and which would cause larger fiscal deficits he argues “a necessary condition would be the confidence of the world’s savers and investors in the good sense, self-discipline and realism of British policymakers.”

Indeed, what if British policymakers stated. “We abandon the Basel Committee’s regulations. Not only are these with their 0% risk weight to the sovereign and 100% the citizens outright communistic, but these also introduced a risk aversion that truly shames all those British bankers who in past times daringly took risks and with it bettered Britain’s future”. 

Sir, I hold that would be a much-needed example for the whole world of good sense, self-discipline and realism. “A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for.” John A. Shedd.

Sir, Wolf seemingly thinks that remaining in a EU in which its authorities assigned a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone’s sovereign debts, even though none of these can print Euros is better for Britain. As I see it, that is a reason for running away from it even more speedily.

PS. Should not bank supervisors be mostly concerned with bankers not perceiving the risks correctly? Of course! So, with the risk weighted capital requirements, what are they doing betting our bank system on that the bankers will perceive credit risks correctly?

@PerKurowski

November 03, 2019

If US’s 50 states had been assigned a 0% risk weight, as was done in the Eurozone, where would America and the US dollar be?

Sir, Gyorgy Matolcsy opines: “Two decades after the euro’s launch, most of the necessary pillars of a successful global currency — a common state, a budget covering at least 15-20 per cent of the Eurozone’s total gross domestic product, a eurozone finance minister and a ministry to go with the post — are still missing.”, “It is time to recognise that the euro was a mistake”, November 4.

Bad as that is, it’s still much worse. Even if all those “necessary pillars of a successful global currency” were present the euro would still be in serious trouble. This a result of the sovereign debt privilege of the 0% risk weight that for purposes of bank capital requirements was assigned to all Eurozone nations, even though none them can really print euros on their own.

Sir, if all USA’s 50 states had been assigned a similar 0% risk weight, as was done in the Eurozone, where would America and the US$ be?


@PerKurowski

November 01, 2019

Who is going to fact check the political ads on social media fact checkers? Big Brothers?

Sir, you opine: “The spread of political advertising on social media requires companies fact-check political ads in collaboration with trusted, independent organizations”, “Online political ads are in urgent need of regulation” November 1.

“Trusted, independent organizations”, does that not ring a bell with respect to trusting the human fallible credit rating agencies with so much power to decide on the risk weighted bank capital requirements?

I am reminded of an Op-ed I wrote in 1998 in which I argued, “In many cases even trying to regulate banks runs the risk of giving the impression that by means of strict regulations, the risks have disappeared” 

And in it I opined “in matters of financial regulations, the most honest, logical and efficient is simply alert to alert about the risks and allow the market, by assigning prices for these, to develop its own paths”

Sir, if I was concerned then, how much more concerned should I not be with the possibility of social media, fact checkers and Big Brothers entering joint ventures. 

So no Sir! Much better is a continuous reminder that: “Nothing advertised here has been fact checked and so even though it sounds interesting and correct, it is quite possible that it is all fake, even an outright shameful lye”

@PerKurowski

October 30, 2019

Well-invested small savings surpluses are better than big ones thrown away at fluffy sovereign spending projects.

Sir, Martin Wolf correctly points out “Without the shelter of the eurozone, the Deutschmark would have greatly appreciated in a low-inflation world” “How Germany avoided the fate of Japan” October 30.

Indeed it would have appreciated, but that does not necessarily mean that it would have been bad for Germany… or for the rest in the eurozone.

Wolf holds that Germans need to realize “that the euro is already working to their benefit, by stabilising their economy, despite its huge savings surpluses.”

Q. Without the euro would those huge savings surpluses exist? A. No!

Q. Without the euro could not whatever smaller saving surpluses have resulted much better invested? A. Yes!

Wolf points out: “Even at ultra-low interest rates, domestic private investment in Germany fell far short of private savings. [And] since the government too ran fiscal surpluses, in Germany, capital outflows absorbed all the private surplus [much through] German financial institutions, with their huge foreign assets”

And that’s their problem. Because of risk weighted bank capital requirements that favors financing the safer present over the riskier future, plus that insane debt privilege of a 0% risk weight assigned to all Eurozone’s sovereign debts, even though none of these can print euros, most of those German saving surpluses ended up financing mediocre eurozone governments… and building up such unsustainable huge debt exposures, that it will come back to bite all, the euro, perhaps the EU, and of course Germans too.

The day when Germans citizens realize the real meaning of that their banks need to hold around 8% of capital when lending to German entrepreneurs, but need zero capital lending to eurozone sovereigns, and that they will not be able to collect on those loans, those German citizens are going to be very wütend.

.And Sir, again, for the umpteenth time, Wolf returns to his: “The chance to borrow at today’s ultra-low long-term interest rates is a blessing, not a curse.” 

Wolf just refuses to accept that today’s ultra-low long-term interest rates, is an unsustainable artificial concoction that mainly benefits public debts, in other words, pure unabridged statism, based dangerously on that government bureaucrats know better what to do with credit, for which repayment they are not personally responsible for, than for instance the private entrepreneurs. When it comes to bank regulations a Communist Wall was constructed in 1988, one year before the Berlin Wall fell.


@PerKurowski

October 29, 2019

What the Eurozone would need a common budget the most for, is to help rescue many of its members from their huge risky 0% risk weighted sovereign debts.

Sir, Martin Arnold reports that Mario Draghi, “the outgoing ECB boss repeated his call for eurozone governments to create a sizeable common budget that could be used to provide greater economic stability in the 19-member currency zone by supporting monetary policy during a downturn.” “ECB chief Draghi uses swansong to call for unity” October 29.

As I see it the eurozone, unwittingly, already had a sizable non transparent common budget, namely that of, for purposes of risk weighted bank capital requirements, having assigned to all eurozone sovereigns’ debts, a 0% risk-weight, even though none of these can print euros on their own.

Some of these sovereigns used that privilege, plus ECB’s QE purchases of it, to load up huge debts at very low interest rates, so as to spend all that money. Now things are turning hard for many of these. Greece was small and walked the plank, and had to mortgage its future. Italy might not be willing to do so. There is a clear redenomination risk, and it is being priced more and more. 

So when Draghi now says “We need a euro area fiscal capacity of adequate size and design: large enough to stabilize the monetary union” it is clear he is very subtle referring to the dangers of the euro breaking down.

But when Draghi mention that fiscal capacity should be designed as not “to create excessive moral hazard”, then its harder to understand how that moral hazard could be worse than that already present in that idiotic 0% risk weighting.

What is clear is that for a eurozone common budget to serve any real purpose, those privileged 0% risk weights have first to be eliminated.

Just like it is hard to see some states with good credit standing accepting a 0% risk weight of other in much worse conditions, it would be difficult to explain for instance to Germans why their banks need to hold around 8% in capital when lending to German private entrepreneurs, but no capital at all when lending to the Italian or Greek governments.

How to do that? Not easy but my instincts tell me it begins by allowing banks to keep all their current eurozone sovereign debts exposures against zero capital, but require these to put up 8% of capital against any new purchases of it. That would freeze bank purchases, put a pressure on interest rates to go up, and allow the usual buyers of sovereign debt to return to somewhat better conditions.

But, of course, that might all only be pure optimistic illusions, and all eurozone hell could break out. 

@PerKurowski

October 07, 2019

The dangerous distortions in the allocation of credit that risk weighted bank capital requirements cause, is seemingly something that shall not be discussed.

... not even by those former central bankers who refuse to fade away

Sir, with respects to “the attack on the European Central Bank’s by six former central bankers” you write “Only one thing can match the stature of the complainants and that is the hollowness of their complaint.” “The euro’s guardians face a roar of the dinosaurs” October 7.

In their memo we read: “The negative impact of the ultra-low interest environment extends from the banking system, through insurance companies and pension funds, to the entire financial sector. The re-distribution effects in favour of owners of real assets, create serious social tensions. The young generations consider themselves deprived of the opportunity to provide for their old age through safe interest-bearing investments… and also furthers a ‘zombification’ of the economy”

Of course in the short run low and even negative interest rates benefit those who borrow more than those who save but, hopefully, one always hopes that will be made up in the future, by means of increased productivity and economic growth.

Significantly though the “dinosaurs” left out mentioning the distortions in the allocation of credit produced by the risk weighted bank capital requirements, which benefits especially the borrowings of sovereigns, that which FT does not want to discuss either. 

I ask. Where would the Europe/Eurozone’s interest rates on sovereign be if banks, as it was for around 600 years before 1988’s Basel Accord, needed to hold the same amount of capital against loans to the sovereigns, currently 0%, than against loans to unrated European entrepreneurs, currently 8%? Dare try thinking about that. Ask your own journalists to try to answer that question.

And neither do they discuss the special case of the 0% risk weight assigned to all Eurozone sovereigns’ debts, even though none of these can print euros. Could it be because of a bad conscience?

And with respect to the young generation what it really should be up in arms against, are the much lower capital requirements for banks when financing the safer present than when financing that riskier future on which its good outcome the young really depend on.

@PerKurowski

September 23, 2019

The Basel Committee jammed banks’ gearboxes… not only in India


Amy Kazmin reporting on India quotes Rajeev Malik, founder of Singapore-based Macroshanti, in that “A well-oiled, well-functioning financial system is the gearbox of the economy”, “Financial system is ‘like a truck with a messed-up gearbox’” September 23.

The financial system’s gearbox got truly messed up when regulators decided that banks could leverage differently their capital based on perceived risk… more risk more capital, less risk less capital… as if what is perceived as risky is more dangerous to bank systems than what is perceived as safe.

And Kazmin writes: “The financial companies that had provided much of India’s credit growth in recent years are now struggling with access to funding themselves after the shocking collapse of AAA-rated infrastructure lender, IL&FS, last year.”

Could that have something to do with the fact that since 2004 Basel II regulations banks needed to hold only 1.6% in capital when human fallible credit rating agencies assigned an AAA to AA rating to a corporation?

And Kazmin writes: “With its own voracious appetite for funds to finance its fiscal deficit, New Delhi is now mopping up much of the country’s household savings through a clutch of small schemes such as post office savings that offer higher rates than commercial banks.”

Could that have something to do with the fact that since 1988 Basel I regulations, banks need to no capital at all against loans to the government of India… but 8% when lending to Indian entrepreneurs.

Sir, risk taking is the oxygen of any development so, with such a dysfunctional gearbox, how is India going to make it? None of the richer countries would ever have developed the same with Basel Committee’s bank regulations… and all their bank crises, those that always result from something safe turning risky, would have all been so much worse, as these failed exposures would have been held against especially little capital. 

Here is a document titled “Are the bank regulations coming from Basel good for development?” It was presented in October 2007 at the High-level Dialogue on Financing for Developing at the United Nations. It was also reproduced in 2008 in The Icfai University Journal of Banking Law. 

@PerKurowski

September 21, 2019

In banking, the worst worse case scenario by far, is something perceived as very safe turning out to be very risky

Sir, Tim Harford writes “We don’t think about worst-case scenarios in the right way.” “To help us think sensibly about it, Gary Klein has argued for conducting ‘pre-mortems’ — or hypothetical postmortems. Before embarking on a project, imagine receiving a message from the future: the project failed, and spectacularly. Now ask yourself: why? Risks and snares will quickly suggest themselves — often risks that can be anticipated and prevented.” “We need to be better at predicting bad outcomes” September 21.

Indeed and what would that pre-mortem suggest as the worst-case scenario for banks regulated by means of risk weighted bank capital requirements?

1. That what was perceived as risky turned out to be risky? No bankers already knew it was risky and, if they anyhow took a chance on it, that would be with a small exposure and a high risk-adjusted interest rate.

2. That what was perceived as risky turned out to be safe? Of course not! What great news, perhaps the bank had helped a successful entrepreneur.

3. That what was perceived as safe turned out to be safe? Of course not!

4. That what was perceived as safe turned out to be risky? Holy Moly! Like those AAA rated securities.

So since that “hypothetical postmortem” was not done, the risk weighted bank capital requirements, besides seriously distorting the allocation of credit to the real economy, also produce especially large exposures to what’s perceived or decreed as especially safe, and is held against especially little capital, risking thereby especially big crises… Good job regulators!


@PerKurowski

September 18, 2019

For capitalism to refunction, first get rid of the risk weighted bank capital requirements.

Sir, Martin Wolf quotes HL Mencken with “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” “Saving capitalism from the rentiers” September 18.

Indeed, and the most populist, simplistic and wrong answer to how our banks should function, are the risk weighted bank capital requirements. These are naively based on that what’s perceived as risky is more dangerous to our bank systems than what’s perceived as safe; and, with risk weights of 0% the sovereign and 100% the citizens, de facto also based on that bureaucrats know better what to do with credit they are not personally responsible for, than for instance entrepreneurs.

And so when that what’s “super-safe”, like AAA rated securities backed with mortgages to the subprime U.S. sector exploded in 2008, this distorted bank credit mechanism, wasted away the immense amount of liquidity that were injected, creating asset bubbles, morphing houses from being homes into being investments assets, paying dividends and buying back shares.

“Tall trees deprive saplings of the light they need to grow. So, too, may giant companies”? Yes Mr Wolf, but so too does these stupid bank regulations.

“A capitalism rigged to favour a small elite” Yes Mr Wolf, but that small elite is not all private sector. The difference between the free market interest rates on sovereign debt that would exist absent regulatory subsidies and central bank purchases, and current ultra low or even negative rates, is just a non-transparent statist tax, paid by those who invest in such debt.

“We need a dynamic capitalist economy that gives everybody a justified belief that they can share in the benefits.” Yes Mr Wolf, but that should start by getting rid of the risk weighted bank capital requirements, so that banks ask savvy loan officers to return, in order to substitute for the current equity minimizing financial engineers.

“Corporate lobbying overwhelms the interests of ordinary citizens” Yes Mr Wolf, but silencing the criticism of current bank regulations could also be the result of some journalists having been effectively lobbied. Or not?

"Capitalism"? No Mr. Wolf, what we really have is Crony Statism

My 2019 letter to the Financial Stability Board
My 2019 letter to the IMF

@PerKurowski

September 16, 2019

Warning! Big Tech might be drawn into a too close too dangerous for us relation with Big Brother.

Sir, Ms. Rana Foroohar writes: “Whatever their size, the winning companies will be those that are profitable. That may sound obvious, but it hasn’t been for the past decade, as easy money has dulled investor senses.” “Activist’s critique of M&A is right” September 16.

But where did that “easy money” come from? Was it not central banks injecting immense amounts of money, and which effects were much distorted by the risk weighted bank capital requirements, which low capital requirements allowed that liquidity to multiply manifold? Has Ms. Foroohar tried to put the breaks on such easy money, or the contrary has she not been egging it on? 

And Ms. Foroohar concludes: “Meanwhile their Big Tech competitors are already being circled by regulators… Attorneys-general from 50 US states and territories in the US have launched an antitrust investigation into Google’s dominance of search and advertising, while New York is leading a probe of Facebook’s monopoly power… in Europe, the EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager… has been given a broader remit that includes digital policy.”

Should we cheer that? Absolutely not! For two reasons:

First that it might lead to Big Tech entering into too close too dangerous relation with Big Brother.

Second we, whose personal data is being exploited by Google, Facebook and similar, should be compensated long before redistribution profiteers and neo-ambulance chasers… for instance by having 50% of their ad-revenues to help fund an unconditional universal basic income.

@PerKurowski

Expert technocrats, like those in the Basel Committee, can be shameless and dangerous populists too.

Sir, Takeshi Niinami writes “Japan’s populism leads to mounting government debt and short-term solutions for immediate issues without a clear long-term vision for recovery. This is not unique to Japan. I believe that the US and EU will begin taking quite a similar path” “Japan has a unique form of populism” September 16.

1988’s Basel Accord gave officially birth to the risk weighted bank capital requirements. This regulation, with its much lower decreed risk weight of sovereign debt than of private debt, set all who applied it on a firm course to too much debt and too little growth. 

Just its denomination “risk weighted”, as if the real risks could be known, is of course just another sort of shameless populism. That the world fell for it, is clearly because the world wanted it so much to be true, that it never found in itself the sufficient will to question its basic fallacy; that it considered that which ex ante is perceived as risky to be more dangerous ex post to our bank systems than what is perceived as safe, something which obviously is not so, as all major bank crises in history evidence. 

As I so often have said, that faulty regulation imposed a de facto reverse mortgage on the economy, which extracted the value it already contained, as banks focused more on refinancing the safer past than the riskier future. By refusing those coming after us the risk-taking that brought us here, the intergenerational holy bond that Edmund Burke wrote about was violently violated.

@PerKurowski

September 15, 2019

Anything your populist can do mine can do better; mine can do populism better than yours.

Sir, Gillian Tett, when discussing populism and populists writes, “Nor is it obvious that Mr Trump will lose in 2020. If you look at recent opinion polls, these offer as much reason for alarm as for cheer.” “Is the populist wave in the west here to stay?” September 14.

Clearly populism is in the eye of the beholder. For instance, if Hugo Chavez had hosted “The Populist Apprentice” he might very well have told President Donald Trump. “You’re fired!” 

As for me Sir, you know very well I opine that one of the worst and most destructive populism ever, was when the expert bank regulators in the Basel Committee told us that with their risk weighted bank capital requirements, our banks would be safer… not caring one iota about how that would distort the allocation of credit to the real economy and, to top it up, based these on that loony idea that what is perceived as risky is more dangerous to our bank system than what is perceived as safe 


@PerKurowski

September 14, 2019

What a pity Martin Weitzman did not chair the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision. If he had we would surely not have suffered the 2008 crisis.

Sir, Tim Harford when referring to an economic paper by Martin Weitzman on climate change classifies it as a “this changes everything” paper, leading him to conclude “extreme scenarios matter. What we don’t know about climate change is more important, and more dangerous, than what we do”, “How this economist rocked my world” September 14.

So I must ask why is it possible to understand that and yet so hard to understand the mistakes of bank regulations based on that what’s perceived as risky being much more dangerous to our bank systems, than what might be lurking behind that which is perceived as safe?

“The truly eye-opening contribution” — for Tim Harford — “was Weitzman’s explanation that the worst-case scenarios should rightly loom large in rational calculations.”

In January 2003 you published a letter in which I said, “Everyone knows that, sooner or later, the ratings issued by the credit agencies are just a new breed of systemic error to be propagated at modern speeds. Friends, please consider that the world is tough enough as it is”. 

Sir was it not clear I was warning about big crises resulting from some human fallible credit rating agencies assigning a very safe rating to something very risky? Like that in 2008 caused by the AAA to AA rated securities backed with mortgages to the subprime sector? European banks and US investment banks, loaded up with because with those credit ratings they were allowed according to Basel II, to leverage their capital a mind-blowing 62.5 times.

Ten years later, when it comes to bank regulations, Martin Weitzman’s wisdom about “worst case scenarios”, is still blithely ignored.

PS. In April 2003, as an Executive Director of the World Bank, in a formal statement I wrote "Nowadays, when information is just too voluminous and fast to handle, market or authorities have decided to delegate the evaluation of it into the hands of much fewer players such as the credit rating agencies. This will, almost by definition, introduce systemic risks in the market"


@PerKurowski

September 13, 2019

Two regulations will turn the beautiful dream of the European Union into a nightmare.

Sir, Ignazio Angeloni writing that “The ECB houses hundreds of experienced, dedicated [bank] supervisor” blames “fundamental weakness in the underlying laws and the “resolution” framework for dealing with ailing banks” for many of EU’s bank troubles. “A common thread runs through diverse EU financial misfortunes” September 13.

The lack of a good resolution framework is a problem when trying to solve difficulties but much worse is that which causes the problems, in this case two regulations that are endangering Europe and the euro. Seemingly none of EC’s experts were capable of doing anything about it.

First, something that also affects most other economies, the Basel Committee’s risk weighted bank capital requirements. These seriously distort the allocation of credit, and, to top it up, are stupidly based on that what’s ex ante perceived as risky is more dangerous ex post to our bank systems than what’s perceived as safe. 

And second, in this case only a homemade EU concoction, the lunacy of all times of having assigned a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone sovereigns’ debts, even though all that debt is not denominated in  their local/printable/fiat currency.

@PerKurowski

September 07, 2019

Ms. Gillian Tett, what is that we really have, capitalism or statism?

Sir, Gillian Tett lectures us interestingly with “If you want to understand what is at stake in this debate, it pays to consider the original meaning of the word ‘company’”... “a society, friendship, intimacy; body of soldiers”, “one who eats bread with you” “in other words initially synonymous with social ties”. “Capitalism — a new dawn?” September 7.

Yet, over the years I cannot rememer Ms. Tett saying a word about that our banks are regulated exclusively so as to be safe mattresses in which to put away our savings, without one single consideration given to their vital social purpose of allocating bank credit efficiently to the real economy. “A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for”, John A Shedd.

And Ms. Tett also writes “the 2008 financial crisis had undermined faith in unfettered free markets.” What? Like those “unfettered free markets” with Basel II regulations that when in order to borrow from banks, borrowers would have to remunerate an amount of bank capital of 0% if sovereigns, 1.6% if AAA rated, 2.8% if residential mortgages and 8% if unrated entrepreneurs?


@PerKurowski

Regulators instructed banks to compete with small savers and insurance companies for whatever was perceived as safe.

Sir, Michael Mackenzie writes “the concern that investors will extend their embrace of riskier assets and of private markets that are far less liquid and transparent, in an effort to boost returns over time.” “Contrarians gain confidence amid fog of future predictions” September 7.

Of course, how can it not be? Small savers and insurance companies face huge new competition for what’s perceived as safe as a consequence of regulators, with risk weighted capital requirements, telling banks to stay away from what’s perceived as “risky”, and to maximize their risk adjusted returns on equity with what’s perceived, or decreed, or concocted, as “safe”. 

Out went the savvy loan officers, in came the equity minimizing financial engineers.

So what’s the threat now? A new crisis resulting from excessive exposures to “the safe”, like some 0% risk weighted Eurozone sovereigns deciding it cannot pay back debt that is not denominated in its own printable currency, or regulators waking up to the fact that what is really dangerous to our bank systems is that which bankers might perceive as safe.

Sir, when in 1988 bank regulators assigned America’s public debt a 0.00% risk weight, its debt was about $2.6 trillion, now it is around $22 trillion and still has a 0.00% risk weight. When do you think it should increase to 0.01%? 


@PerKurowski

August 28, 2019

How can Eurozone’s sovereigns’ debts, not denominated in their own national/printable fiat currency, be considered 100% safe?

Sir, Laurence Fletcher in Tail Risk of August 28, writes: “Yields on German Bunds and other major government bonds have been moving steadily lower, as prices rise. That has burnished their credentials… as a safe haven in uncertain times”

Sir, how can Eurozone’s sovereigns’ debts, which are not denominated in their own national/printable fiat currency, be considered safe? 

The reasons the interest rates on that debt is low is the direct result of regulatory statism.

Risk weighted bank capital requirements that much favor the access to bank credit of the sovereign over that of the citizens.

That the European Commission assigned a Sovereign Debt Privilege of a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone sovereigns, even when these de facto do not take on debt in a national printable currency.

That ECB’s, with its QEs, have bought up huge amounts of Eurozone sovereign debts.


@PerKurowski

August 22, 2019

With respect to Eurozone sovereign debts, European banks were officially allowed to ignore credit ratings.

Sir, Rachel Sanderson writes, “Data from the Bank of Italy on holdings of Italian government debt, usually the prime conduit of contagion, suggests any Italian crisis now will be more contained than in the 2011-12 European debt and banking crisis, argue analysts at Citi” “Rome political climate is uncomfortable even for seasoned Italy Inc.” August 22.

“But Citi [also] warns of sovereign downgrades. Italy is now closer to the subinvestment grade rating threshold compared with 2011, according to all three main rating agencies.”

But the European authorities, European Commission, ECB all, for purposes of Basel Committee’s risk weighted bank capital requirements, officially still consider Italy’s debt AAA to AA rated, as they still assign it a 0% risk weight.

So in fact all the about €400bn of Italian government debt Italian banks hold, and all what the European financial institutions hold of about €460bn of Italian sovereign debt, most of it, are held against none or extremely little bank capital. Had EU followed Basel regulations they would have at least 4% in capital against these holding, certainly way too little. Lending to any private sector Italian would with such ratings would require 8% in capital… the difference is explained by the pro-state bias of the Basel Committee. 

And that is a political reality that must also be extremely uncomfortable for the not sufficiently seasoned European Union Inc.


@PerKurowski

August 19, 2019

Risk weighted bank capital requirements are anathema to neoliberalism

Sir, Rana Foroohar writes “we have spent decades of living in the old reality — the post-Bretton Woods, neoliberal one.” "Markets are adjusting to a turbulent world" August 19.

There are many definitions of neoliberal policies out there but they always include a large role for the hands of the free market and the reduction in government spending in order to increase the role of the private sector in the economy.

In 1988, for the banking sector, one of the most important economic agents, credit risk capital requirements were introduced by means of the Basel Accord. It gave incentives that distorted the allocation of bank credit to the real economy. For instance lower risk weights for the sovereign (0%) and for residential mortgages (35%) signifies subsidizing the sovereign and the safer present, by taxing the access to credit for the riskier future, like to entrepreneurs (100%). So I do not know what neoliberalism Ms. Foroohar refers to.

Ms. Foroohar, speculating on the possible “impact of an Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders victory in the US primaries?” mentions a 13D Global Strategy and Research note that holds that such event would “fit perfectly into the cycle from wealth accumulation to wealth distribution”, something that Foroohar also believes “will be the biggest economic shift of our lifetimes.”

Sir, at the very moment income, through the purchase of assets, is transformed into accumulated wealth; there cannot be any significant redistribution of it, which means having to sell many of those same assets, without any significant destruction of wealth. If you’re scared of a deep recession, as we all should indeed be, then the last think you’d want to do is to deepen it with a wealth redistribution cycle.

So we cannot redistribute? Yes, we can, but that’s best done getting hold of the income before it is converted into assets, and then, preferably, sharing it out equally to all, by means of an unconditional universal basic income.

@PerKurowski

August 15, 2019

Regulators forced banks into what’s perceived safe, thereby forcing the usually most risk adverse into what’s perceived risky.

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth writes “Many investors such as pension funds and insurers [are] pushed towards the only other option: venturing into the riskier corners of the bond market, such as fragile countries, heavily indebted companies and exotic, financially engineered instruments. These are securities they would normally shun — or at least demand a much higher return to buy.” “Negative yields force investors to snap up riskier debt” August 16.

As an example he mentions “Victoria a UK-based company that issued a €330m five-year bond that drew more than €1bn of orders [because] the relatively high 5.25 per cent yield it offered, helped investors swallow misgivings over its leverage.”

Clearly liquidity injections, like central banks’ huge QEs, has helped to move interest rates much lower everywhere, but, as I see it, much, or perhaps most of what Wigglesworth refers to is the direct consequence of the risk weighted capital requirements for banks.

That regulations allowed banks to leverage much more their capital with what’s perceived (decreed or concocted) as safe, than with what’s perceived as risky, which meant that banks can more easily obtain higher risk adjusted returns on equity with the safe than with the risky… and those incentives were as effective as ordering the banks what to do. That made banks substitute their savvy loan officers, precisely those who would be evaluating and lending to a Victoria, with equity minimizing financial engineers.

As a result the interest rates charged to the safe… little by little forced those who did not posses savvy loan officers to take up the role of banks.

Will it stop there? Not necessarily. Banks, and their regulators, are now slowly waking up to the fact that the margins that the regulation benefited “safes” offer, are not enough for banks to survive as banks. 

But how to get out of that mess will not be easy. Solely as an example, when in 1988 bank regulators assigned America’s public debt a 0.00% risk weight, its debt was about $2.6 trillion, now it is around $22 trillion and still has a 0.00% risk weight. How do you believe markets would react if it increased to 0.01%? 

@PerKurowski

In 1988 one year before the Berlin Wall fell another wall was constructed, one which separated sovereign and private bank borrowings.

Sir, I refer to Ben Hall’s “State ownership back in vogue 30 years after fall of Berlin Wall” August 15.

The only real competitive advantage those in favor of SOEs can argue, is that governments usually have cheaper access to credit, so why put it in the hands of private investors who need to expect higher returns. 

But in 1988 by means of the Basel Accord 1988 the risk weighted bank capital requirements were adopted. With these banks were allowed to hold sovereign debt against much less, sometimes even zero capital, than what these had to hold against loans to the private sector. As a result the interest rate differences between private and public debt started to grow and with it, the SOE’s competitive advantage, and so we should not be too surprised about these being “back in vogue”. 

To illustrate my point just let me ask: Sir, where would the interest rates now be for the 0% risk weighted sovereign Italy, this even though it takes on debt not denominated in a domestic printable currency be, if Italian banks needed to hold as much capital against these as what they must hold against loans to Italian entrepreneurs?


@PerKurowski

August 12, 2019

Venezuela needs to extract its oil much more than what it needs Citgo.

Sir, Colby Smith and Gideon Long report that “Venezuela has long been fearful of missing a payment on Citgo’s debt — the country’s only bond not yet in default — since it could mean losing control of Citgo the jewel in the crown of PDVSA’s foreign assets” “Venezuela sanctions leave refiner’s future in doubt” August 13.

Let us be clear, in terms of helping Venezuelan’s being able to eat and buy medicines, which is what they most need right now, it is not Citgo that is worth the most, it is what it can extract in oil and sell in the markets, because that’s where the real money is. Moreover, if creditors would lay their hands on Citgo, they would most certainly love to continue refining Venezuelan oil.

Sir, what’s the worth of Citgo if Venezuela does not sell to it its oil in very favorable conditions? If I was a creditor that had my possibilities to collect based on Citgo, I would be very nervous about hearing a “Hear it is, take it!” 

And that might be why they so anxiously try to convince Juan Guaidó that he can´t afford to lose it. Personally I would, as I have many times said say “good riddance”. 

Why on earth are government bureaucrats running a normally very low margin’s refinery operation?

Sir, in 2000 I ended an interview in the Daily Journal in Caracas with: “I still can't understand the economic reasons for having bought and kept Citgo. There is evidence in the reports that it's being subsidized by PDVSA. And, for those who argue so much in favor of privatizing PDVSA, I challenge them to first make an IPO for Citgo, subject to their obligation to purchase oil products at market prices."

So, legitimate President Guaidó, don’t ever think of paying $913, in late October, to holders of a bond maturing in 2020 issued by PDVSA, which is backed by a majority stake in Citgo.

@PerKurowski

Any new IMF managing director should at least know, as a minimum minimorum, that two current important financial policies are more than dumb.

Sir, I refer to John Taylor’s “Choice of new IMF head must not be dictated by the old EU order” August 12.

I have no problems whatsoever with all what Taylor argues and neither with IMF changing its bylaws to allow someone over 65 years to take up the post of managing director.

But I do have two very firm ideas about what the next managing director should know.

First, that the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, based on that what’s perceived as risky, like loans to entrepreneurs and SMEs, is more dangerous to the bank system than what’s perceived as safe, like residential mortgages, is more than dumb. These only guarantee a weakening of the real economy and especially large bank crises, caused by especially large exposures to something perceived, decreed or concocted as especially safe, which turns into being especially risky, while held against especially little capital.

Second, that to assign a 0% risk weight, as that which has been assigned by EU authorities to all eurozone sovereigns, and this even though these take on debt that de facto is not denominated in their own domestic printable currency, something which could bring down the Euro and the EU with it, is also more than dumb. 

Sir, I wonder if anyone of the G20 Eminent Persons Group, international worthies and the names Taylor mention understand and know this. And if they do, why are they silent on it?

@PerKurowski

August 09, 2019

Before ECB does one iota more, we must get rid of the loony portfolio invariant credit risk weighted bank capital requirements.

Sir, Rick Rieder writes, “A thoughtful consideration of where and how capital is being applied could have a positive influence that lasts decades. The status quo cannot be satisfactory for anyone hoping to see the eurozone continue as a global economic force in the century ahead” “ECB’s conventional tools will not solve eurozone woes” August 9.

Absolutely but, before having ECB by buying equities entering further into crony statism terrain, what should be done, sine qua none, is to get rid of those risk weighted bank capital requirements that so dangerously, both for the bank system and for the economy, distorts the allocation of credit. 

Precisely because banks need to hold more capital when lending to the riskier future than when lending to the sovereign, and safer present “the return on debt is not matching the risk. So potential lenders have retreated, leaving more expensive equity financing as the sole source of funding. That increases the overall cost of project financing. As a result, growth-enhancing projects never get off the ground, exacerbating today’s negative economic velocity.”

Precisely for the same reason, we are not getting enough of “What is needed is to improved productivity, which comes from innovation and technology.”

Sir, if that immense source of distortion is not eliminated then whatever ECB does will only kick the can further down the road from which one day it will roll back with vengeance on all of us.


@PerKurowski

August 07, 2019

Central banks and regulators are wittingly or unwittingly imposing communism by stealth, at least in Japan.

Sir, you refer to that Bank of Japan’s holdings of government bonds are already at more than 40 per cent of the outstanding stock… and to “massive equity purchases” [by means of buying into the ETF market], and to“the government is the biggest beneficiary of the BoJ’s low interest rate policy” “BoJ risks falling out of sync on global easing” August 7.

Add to that the lower capital requirements for banks when lending to the government than when lending to citizens, and it all adds up to a huge gamble on that government bureaucrats know better what to do with credit/money than private enterprises. It sure sounds too much like communism by stealth for my liking. 

In 1988 the Basel Accord assigned 0% risk weight to sovereigns and 100% to citizens and we all believed that when in 1989 the Berlin Wall fell we had gotten rid of communism for good. How can the world have been so naïve? It will of course end badly.

@PerKurowski

August 05, 2019

The battle between capital and labour may be surpassed by the battle between the working class and the not working class.

Rana Foroohar announces, “The age of wealth distribution is coming and will have major investment consequences”, “The age of wealth accumulation is over” August 5.

Indeed, but two questions stand out. 

First, for wealth to be redistributed some assets of the wealthy must be sold and, since precisely because of that there might be less interest among other to acquire those assets, the value of these could fall… with unexpected consequences. Here’s an example, what is best for New York City keeping property taxes and property values at current values, or increasing the taxes running the risk that property values fall and wealthy property owners run away somewhere else?

The second question is who is going to redistribute? Will a mechanism like an unconditional universal basic income be used, or will the usual redistribution profiteers be in charge of it?

Foroohar also announces, “Another battle will be between capital and labour.” That battle will always be present but, in these times when robots and AI seem to threaten jobs, the real battle could end up being between the working class and the not working class.


@PerKurowski

Don’t keep adding bank regulations for what is ex ante perceived risky. It is what is ex ante perceived as very safe that should concern us the most.

Sir, I refer to Sheila Bair discussion of how much banks are to set aside in order to cover for loan losses. “Congress should stay out of new bank rules for loan losses” August 5.

Bair mentions, “that FASB wants to switch to a new rule, known by the name of “current expected credit losses” or “CECL.” That rule “says that banks should set aside enough to cover expected losses throughout the life of a loan, taking into account a wide variety of factors, including historic loss rates, market conditions, and the maturity of the economic cycle.”

Bair argues the new rule has two key benefits. “First, banks will start putting aside money on day one of each loan so when trouble hits — as it did in 2008 — they will not be trying to play catch-up with their reserves.” 

Really, what money would they have had to put aside for the AAA rated securities gone bad? What money would they have had to put aside for loans with a default guarantee issued by an AAA rated entity like AIG?

Then “Second, it should make bankers a little more cautious in their lending decisions, as they will have to account for likely losses when the loan is made, not kick the can down the road until the borrower is actually in arrears.”

That all has me concerned with that we might be adding a new layer of discrimination against the access to credit of the risky.

Those perceived ex ante as risky already get less credit and pay higher risk premiums. Those perceived ex ante as risky already cause banks to have to hold more equity against loans to them. 

If those perceived ex ante as risky must now also require banks to set aside reserves earlier than what is required for those perceived as safe, banks might stop altogether lending to the risky, like to entrepreneurs, and that will absolutely hurt the economy.

And Sir, it would all be for nothing, because major bank crises are never caused by excessive exposures to what was ex ante perceived as risky when placed on banks’ balance sheets. 


@PerKurowski

July 31, 2019

If ECB’s original QEs stimuli had not been distorted by credit risk weighted bank capital requirements, there would be much less need for additional QEs.

Sir, Claire Jones writes: “EU treaties prevent the ECB from financing member governments by buying their debt, a tactic known as monetary financing. This rule aims to protect the central bank from political pressure and avoid stoking inflation. QE involves the central banks of eurozone states buying huge amounts of government bonds, financed by the ECB”… [Is QE legal?] “ECB argues that QE does not amount to monetary financing as it is only buying the bonds in secondary markets from other investors, rather than purchasing the debt directly from governments”, “Easing German constitutional court to rule on ECB bond buying” July 31.

Sir, as clearly the intent of ECB is to help financing member governments, and “stoking inflation” a publicized goal, I must say that sounds like a real weak defense.

But be that as it may, the question is also whether QE really helps the recovery in a sustainable way? ECB’s still so large outstanding ECB holdings of European sovereign debt suggest it does not. 

The main explanation for that is to be found in the many dangerous distortions in the allocation of bank credit that the risk weighted bank capital requirements produce.

Just an example, currently all Eurozone sovereigns, courtesy of EU authorities, have been assigned a Sovereign Debt Privilege of a 0% risk weight, and this even though not of them take on debt denominated in a currency that is their own printable one.

The sum of QEs, plus that regulatory favoring, basically premised upon the notion that European government bureaucrats know better what to do with money they are not personally responsible for than for instance European entrepreneurs is drowning Europe in way too much statism.

For the European Union to be saved financial power has to be taken away from its sovereigns (and Brussels) and devolved to its citizens.


@PerKurowski

July 18, 2019

What keeps IMF and World Bank so silent on bank regulations that go against their respective mission?

Sir, you argue, “If the IMF and the World Bank were to disappear, the absence of their combination of expertise, credibility and cash would soon be painfully obvious.” “Bretton Woods twins need to keep adapting” July 18.

Absolutely but they would also be sorely missed as the right places for having serious discussions on many serious issues that can affect our economies. 

But in that respect both have also been somewhat amiss of their responsibilities. The Basel Committee’s credit risk weighted bank capital requirements, which so dangerously distort the allocation of bank credit, have not been sufficiently discussed.

The World Bank, as the world’s premier development bank, knows that risk taking is the oxygen of any development. With this in mind it should loudly oppose regulations that so much favors the safer present’s access to bank credit over that of the riskier future. Doing so dooms our economies to a more obese less muscular growth. 

And IMF should know that all that piece of regulation really guarantees, is especially large bank crises, caused by especially large exposures to something perceived or decreed as especially safe, and that turn out to be especially risky, while being held against especially little bank capital. 

Why the twins’ silence? Perhaps too much group think, perhaps too close relations with regulators, something that could make this topic uncomfortable to discuss. 

July 17, 2019

With bank regulations biased against risk taking, the oxygen of development, emerging has been made so much more difficult for nations

Sir, I refer to Jonathan Wheatley’s report on emerging markets “Falling further behind” July 17. 

Banks used to apportion their credit between those perceived as risky, and those perceived as safe, based on their own portfolio considerations and risk adjusted interest rates. But that was before the Basel Committee’s risk weighted capital requirements.

Now banks apportion credit between those perceived as risky, and those perceived as safe, based on their own portfolio considerations, the risk adjusted interest rates, and the times bank equity can be leveraged with those risk adjusted interest rates, so as to be able to earn higher risk adjusted returns on equity.

That has leveraged whatever natural discrimination in access to bank credit there is in favor of the “safer present” against that of the riskier future. Since risk taking is the oxygen of any development, what might this have done to the emerging markets?


@PerKurowski

July 16, 2019

The case against insane globalism also remains strong.

The purpose of the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision BCBS, established in 1974 is to encourage convergence toward common approaches and standards. That sure reads as it could qualify as that global cooperation Martin Wolf asks for in his “The case for sane globalism remains strong” July 16.

But what if it is not sane?

BCBS has basically imposed on the world the use of credit risk weighted capital requirements for banks.

Since perceived credit risks are already considered by bankers when deciding on the interest rate and the size of exposures they are willing to hold, basing the capital requirements on the same perceived credit risks, means doubling up on perceived credit risks. 

And Sir, as I have argued for years, any risk, even if perfectly perceived, causes the wrong actions, if excessively considered. 

I dislike the concept of any kind of weighted different capital requirements, because that distorts the allocation of credit with many unexpected consequences. But if we wanted to have perceived credit risk to decide bank capital, it would of course have to be based on the conditional probability of what bankers are expected to do when they perceive credit risks, and these might be wrongly perceived.

Would we in such a case assign a 20% risk weight to what is rated AAA and a whopping 150% to what is rated below BB- as in Basel II’ standards? Of course not!

And if we did not think that government bureaucrats know better what to do with bank credit they are not personally liable for, than entrepreneurs, would we then assign the “safe” sovereign a 0% risk weight and the “risky” not rated entrepreneur a risk weight of 100%, which would clearly send way too much credit to sovereigns and way too little to entrepreneurs? Of course not!

And if we thought having a job as important or even more so than owning a house, would we then allow banks to leverage so much more with residential mortgages than with loans to small and medium enterprises, meaning banks can obtain easier and higher risk adjusted returns on their equity by financing “safe” houses than by financing “risky” job creation? Of course not!

Sir, in 2003, when as an Executive Director of the World Bank I commented on its Strategic Framework I wrote: "A mixture of thousand solutions, many of them inadequate, may lead to a flexible world that can bend with the storms. A world obsessed with Best Practices may calcify its structure and break with any small wind."

Does this mean that I do not agree with Martin Wolf when he argues in favor of multilateral co-operation? Of course not! But it sure argues for being much more careful when going global with plan and rules.

By the way in those same 2003 comments at the World Bank I also wrote: “Nowadays, when information is just too voluminous and fast to handle, market or authorities have decided to delegate the evaluation of it into the hands of much fewer players such as the credit rating agencies. This will, almost by definition, introduce systemic risks in the market”. And it did not take the world long before drowning in 2007 and 2008 in the AAA rated securities backed with mortgages to the subprime sector in the U.S.

But have those who concocted those ill suited risk weighted bank capital requirements ever admitted a serious mea culpa? No, they have blamed banks and credit rating agencies.

And in EU the authorities assigned a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone sovereigns even though they all take up debt that is not denominated in their local printable currency. And no one said anything?

Sir, in the whole world, I see plenty of huge dangers and lost opportunities that can all be traced back directly to BCBS risk weighted bank capital requirements. 

So, besides having to be very careful when going global, we also have to be very vigilant on what the global rulers propose. Of course, for that our first line of defense are the journalists daringly questioning what they do not understand or like.

Has FT helped provide sufficient questioning about what the Basel Committee has and is up to? I let you Sir answer that question.


@PerKurowski

July 13, 2019

Should the tax on robots be high or low?

Sir, John Thornhill writes that Carl Benedikt Frey’s “The Technology Trap” informs us that “the number of robots in the US increased by 50 per cent between 2008 and 2016, each of them replacing about 3.3 jobs” “The return of the Luddites” July 13, 2019.

Those who are so replaced must surely have been generating some non-wage labour costs, like social security, that robots don’t. Therefore I frequently pose a question that, with the exception of some Swedes, no one wants to give me a definite answer to. It is:

Should we tax robots low so they work for us humans, or high so that we humans remain competitive for the jobs?

In an Op-Ed from 2014 titled “We need decent and worthy unemployments” I wrote: “The power of a nation, and the productivity of its economy, which so far has depended primarily on the quality of its employees may, in the future, also depend on the quality of its unemployed, as a minimum in the sense of these not interrupting those working.”

And over the years I have become convinced that in a universal basic income, large enough to help us out of bed to reach up to what is available, and low enough to keep us from staying in bed, lies our best chances to find the basic social stability we need to avoid societal breakdown,.

The financing of that UBI could include that those who exploit data on us citizens shared with us part of their ad revenues, a high carbon tax, and perhaps taxing robots and AI (though I do not know with how much)

PS. I case you wonder why some Swedes answered the question that has primarily to do with the existence in Swedish of the magical word “lagom”, meaning something like not too much not too little but just right. J

July 12, 2019

So if the taxman/(Big Brother) is now to get a share of the revenues some Big Tech obtain exploiting our personal data… who is going to defend us citizens?

Sir, you deem “The ability of some of the world’s most profitable companies to escape paying fair levels of tax…unfair both to other businesses which do not trade internationally and to governments, which lose substantial revenue” “France leads the way on taxing tech more fairly”, July 12.

It might be unfair to us taxpaying citizens but “unfair to the government”, what on earth do you mean with that? That sounds like something statist redistribution profiteers could predicate but, frankly, the government has no natural right to any income.

And since Big Techs like Facebook and Google obtain most of their revenues by exploiting us citizens’ personal data, then if there were some real search for fairness, a tax on ad revenues from such exploitation should better be returned directly to us, perhaps by helping to fund a universal basic income.

But what ‘s the worst with these taxes is that now effectively governments will be partners with these companies in the exploitation of our data. With such incentives do you really believe our interest will be duly defended? We, who are afraid of what all our data could feed with information a Big Brother government, must now recoil in horror from that we will also be suffering an even richer and more powerful Big Brother.

PS. Sir, it is not the first time I have warned you about this.

@PerKurowski

July 11, 2019

Many or perhaps most of our bankers would be much better off, at least happier, if they heeded George Bank’s “Let’s go fly a kite!”

Sir, John Gapper refers to “Two academics who studied investment bankers in London were surprised by their degree of cynicism and noted the absence of ‘meaningfulness, emotions and personal investment in work values’. “Bankers have been alienated from their jobs” July 11.

Call me a romantic if you want but, I know that when bankers who felt proud of being savvy loan officers were, with the introduction of the risk weighted bank capital requirements, pushed aside by equity minimizing and leverage maximizing financial engineers, there had to be a lot of frustrations.

Imagine if you as a loan officer had analyzed in depth the plan an entrepreneur presented in his credit application; and you had gotten to know him well; and you had agreed on a risk adjusted interest rate that made sense for both of you, and then your superiors told you: “No we can only leverage our equity 12.5 times with this loan so you either get him to accept a much higher interest rate, or we’re not interested”… and you knew that higher interest rate doomed the viability of the project? Would you not then feel like our beloved George Banks, that you’d better go and fly a kite?

Sir, most of those who became bankers during the last three decades must have a very hard time understanding what “It’s a Wonderful Life” is all about.


@PerKurowski