Mr. Martin Wolf, what do you mean, is liberalism not broken?

Sir, I refer to “Liberalism is battered but not yet broken” Martin Wolf, FT January 10, 2024.

Since 1988, with Basel I, non-elected by the citizens bank regulators, with risk weighted bank capital requirements, in the name of making our banks safe, have allowed themselves to distort the allocation of bank credit to the economy. 

Wolf opines: “What liberals share is trust in human beings to decide things for themselves.” So, Mr. Wolf, why have you been silent on this clear breach of free market liberalism?

These days, in reference to the farmer’s protests in Berlin I have tweeted/Xd: “Would now John F. Kennedy have wanted to deliver his 1963 ‘Ich bin ein Berliner’ speech? - If the Berlin Wall was still up, would Ronald Reagan now have needed to tell Putin, ‘Tear down this wall’?”

My answer in both cases is NO! US and Russia – West and East Berlin, have been too long exposed to communistic weakening. But it’s coming to an end. More and more nations now need more public debt in order to service their current public debts, and are thereby, de facto, becoming zombie nations.

I pray someone with real political standing would dare to stand up and order: “Basel Committee, tear down your regulations.” I fear that might not happen until this “wall” has crumbled on its own. Those regulations have empowered bureaucracy autocracies, and way too many want to be members or beneficiaries of it. And by the way, if they speak up, they risk not being invited to the World Economic Forums in Davos; and we would not want to risk that, would we?

Sir, how can we make sure to capitalize on the opportunity of artificial intelligence helping to empower a citizens’ democracy? I mean before AI regulators decide to send it to Gulag too.

PS. I tweeted - Xd: "If there’s anything that could help focus on what has happened in the world, and on what’s going on, that is to have a record of all those who, since 1971, have assisted World Economic Forum #WEF meetings in #Davos."

For our grandchildren sake we must recover the “democratic capitalism” we inherited and lost too much of.

“We have inherited democratic capitalism from the struggles of our predecessors. We must reform and protect it for our descendants.” Martin Wolf, “In defence of democratic capitalism” FT January 21, 2023

Yes, indeed, but Sir, sadly, we’ve already lost too much of it. When I see bank capital requirements with decreed risk weights of 0% government and 100% citizens, I see Hitler/Stalin/Mao/Mussolini decreed weights… I see populism… I see the empowerment of an authoritarian bureaucracy autocracy… I see the dangerous and weakening distortion of the allocation of bank credit.

And that’s why, even to the point of obsession (as Wolf once mentioned) I’ve been fighting the risk weighted bank capital (equity / shareholders’-skin-in-the-game) requirements, first introduced 1988, as Basel I. These allow banks to leverage more their shareholders’-skin-in-the-game, and thereby earn higher risk adjusted returns on equity when financing what’s perceived (or decreed) as safe, than when financing what’s perceived as risky.

That de facto decreed the more creditworthy as more worthy of credit and the less creditworthy as less worthy of credit.

Wolf opines “It is possible for example to limit macroeconomic instability by reducing reliance on debt-fuelled demand and making the financial system more robust”. Yes, but for that Wolf must try to understand that what’s “safe” e.g., government debts and residential mortgages are more like demand-pushing-carbs while, what’s “risky” e.g., loans to small businesses and entrepreneurs, could be classified as supply-producing-proteins.

These regulations were sold as making our bank systems safer. What nonsense. The large exposures that have caused all major bank crises have always been built up with assets perceived (or now decreed) as safe, and never ever with assets perceived as risky.

The real reason for it all was confessed by Paul Volcker in his 1988 autobiography “Keeping at it”: “Assets for which bank capital requirements were nonexistent, were what had the most political support; sovereign credits and home mortgages… A ‘leverage ratio’ discouraged holdings of low-return government securities.”

Were those regulations agreed upon in a democratic way? Absolutely not. For a starter these should not be able to clear the American Founding Fathers’ US Constitution. 

Wolf mentions his family’s history: “In May 1940, as the Nazis invaded the Netherlands, my mother escaped from the country in a trawler hijacked by her father, a self-made fish merchant. Her father, one of nine, asked all his wider family to join them on the journey to England. None did: they were all slaughtered in the Holocaust.”

The morning after, everything’s clear but, the night before, who was the real risk-taker, Martin Wolf’s grandfather or the other eight who stayed behind?

In the same way the morning after a bank crisis, what’s dangerous becomes crystal clear. But what’s usually forgotten by Monday morning quarterbacks, is that the large exposures that caused the crisis were built up with assets perceived (or now decreed) as very safe. 

PS. My first ever Op-Ed 25 years ago was on this subject

The history I’ll tell my grandchildren has little to do with Philip Stephens’ history.

Sir, Philip Stephens writes: “Twenty-five years ago… the world belonged to liberalism. Soviet communism had collapsed. Historians will record the 2008 global financial crash as… the moment western democracies suffered a potentially lethal blow. The failure of laissez-faire economics was visible before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.” “The west is the author of its own weakness” Financial Times, October 1, 2021.

The history I will be telling my grandchildren is quite different.

Thirty-three years ago, the world belonged to liberalism and Soviet communism was collapsing. Historians will record how in 1988, one year before the Berlin Wall fell, the western world’s bank regulators introduced risk weighted bank capital requirements that distorted the allocation of credit. That put an end to any laissez-faire economics. With risk weights of 0% the government and 100% citizens, as if bureaucrats know better what to do with credit than e.g., entrepreneurs, communism took over. 

The 2008 global financial crash resulted from banks being allowed to leverage their capital/equity/skin-in-the game a mind-boggling 62.5 times, with assets that human fallible credit rating agencies had assigned a AAA to AA rating.

Yes, the west is the author of its own weakness… it much renounced to the willingness to take risks that had made it great. 

Sadly though, there are way too many interested in not disclosing what really happened… and therefore our banks are still in hand of insane risk aversion. “Insane”? Yes, because those excessive exposures that could become dangerous to our bank systems, are always built-up with assets perceived as safe, never ever with assets perceived as risky.

PS. My 2019 letter to the Financial Stability Board