Professor Summers. Keeping mum on how sovereign public borrowings are currently subsidized is cheating on the future

Sir, Lawrence Summers writes: “Borrowing to pay for tax cuts is a way of deferring, not avoiding, pain. Ultimately the power of compound interest makes even larger tax increases or spending cuts necessary. But in the meantime debt-financed tax cuts raise the trade deficit, and reduce investment thereby cheating the future.” “A Republican tax plan that would help the rich and harm growth” November 6.

Sir, Prof Summers is entirely correct in that “Borrowing to pay for tax cuts is a way of deferring, not avoiding, pain”. But, one major reason for why such borrowing can occur is that it is currently contracted at artificially low rates.

With the regulatory subsidy imbedded in the capital requirements for banks’ 0% risk weighting of sovereign debt; and with the stimuli provided by the Fed with its low interest policy and huge quantitative easing programs, America’s current government’s borrowing costs do not reflect the real undistorted rates.

Without these non-transparent help from their statist colleagues, there is no doubt the interest rates would be higher, the current fiscal deficit higher, and the adjustments needed much clearer.

Sir, since Professor Summers has been consistently ignoring this, he is willing or unwittingly helping to cheat the future too.

@PerKurowski

Martin Wolf, to keep the welfare state alive, before considering taxes, look at what real economy you need for that.

Sir, Martin Wolf asks: “Will the UK public sector be able to provide the benefits the public expects in return for the taxes it is willing to pay? The answer to that question seems to be “no”. If so, will the promise to provide some universal services be abandoned? Will taxes be raised? Or will debt be allowed to grow until it has to stop?” Wolf answers: “With current commitments, [fiscal] revenue must rise relative to GDP… The alternative is to abandon pillars of the welfare state.” “It is time to talk about raising taxes” May 19.

That starts from the wrong end. The real question should be what future economy do we need so that it will allow fiscal revenues or other means by which not having to abandon the pillars of the welfare state? The answer to that question might be increasing taxes as Wolf recommends but it could also require many other means, not necessarily including extreme ones like to “choose a collapse in life expectancy”

For many decades I have argued the best and most sustainable pension/health plan to be that of having children who love you and are working in a healthy and functioning economy.

I have been blessed with loving children, thank God, but I do fret about the future economy, as there is no way on earth for it to be either healthy or functionable with regulators distorting the allocation of bank credit, with their insane risk weighted capital requirements.

Since 1988, with Basel I, that set the risk weight of the sovereign at 0% and the citizens at 100%, public indebtedness has been artificially subsidized.

Unless that distortion is eliminated it will guarantee to deliver unsustainable public debt levels and an unhealthy economy. That is because whether the statists like it or not, reality is that government bureaucrats do not know how to use bank credit more productively than the private sector’s SMEs and entrepreneurs.

Having allowed the banks to run up such huge exposures to what is perceived as safe, the past and the present, while refraining from financing the riskier future, will cost our aging society much, because frankly, why should our children and grandchildren ignore that regulatory discrimination against them.

If we do not rectify, there will come a day where the young will show the elderly the finger… pointing at the closest “ättestupa”

PS. My decades long insecurities on the debate about social security

PS. Of course immigration and emigration could also help.

PS. A 2022 letter in Washington Post: “Before the debt ceiling is lifted, Congress must dare to at least pose a question.”

@PerKurowski

When “Eurozone sovereigns rush to lock in rates”… whom are they locking out?

Sir, I refer to Thomas Hale’s “Eurozone sovereigns rush to lock in rates” March 20.

It reads like the sovereigns were totally disconnected from their subjects. Like if they are able to lock in low rates, this would not be paid by, for instance, those pension funds that will earn less?

And if sovereigns have some inside information that rates will shoot up, and still sells a long-term bond to a citizen (a bank or an insurance company) is that not stealing? Would a citizen not be fined and sent to jail if he did something like that?

Bank regulators decided for instance that banks and insurance companies need to hold less capital when lending to sovereigns than when lending to citizens. That of course leads to sovereigns being able to borrow at lower rates than what would have been the case in the absence of such regulatory favor. And who pays for that regulatory subsidy? The “risky” SMEs and entrepreneurs pay for it; by means of less and more expensive access to bank credit. 

Sir there is such an amazing disconnect between the sovereigns and its subjects. It is as if the sovereigns have totally forgotten that their future is absolutely dependent on the future of its subjects. Or is it that current technocrats are just too statists or too dumb to understand what they are doing.

It does not help of course when influential papers like the Financial Times refuses to ask the questions that should be asked… like these:

@PerKurowski

God, help my descendants live out of reach of high priests of complacency, like Basel Committee’s bank regulators

Sir, Martin Wolf writes: “China can help give Mr Trump what he wants. The US president wants greenfield industrial investments in parts of his country damaged by deindustrialisation. This can never be reversed. But Mr Xi can surely find Chinese businesses happy to invest in the US. Mr Trump likes such announcements. Mr Xi should help him.” “An odd couple doomed to co-operation” March 22.

What? Is the future wellbeing of America now beholden to China? Would Wolf really like this opinion of his to be quoted during a Trump rally?

If I were to give a recommendation of how to promote any type of greenfield investments in America, I would start with, of course, by telling America to get rid of those disastrous risk weighted capital requirements for banks that orders complacency with what we have, and de facto blocks bank lending to whatever smells as risky unknown future.

That regulatory risk aversion, which so odiously discriminates access to bank credit in favor of “the safe”, like the sovereign, the AAArisktocracy and residential housing; and so disfavoring the lending to risky SMEs and entrepreneurs… has no place in any country that wants to build future… much less in one that prides itself of being the Home of the Brave.

But there is much more to it.

On March 10, in “British business is starting to look more Italian” Martin Wolf drowned us in growth projections statistics that most probably are not based on an acceleration of any of those profound economic changes the world is going through. Sir, I wrote you a letter commenting on that.

On March 14, Wolf discussed the horrors of bilateralism and the blessings of multilateralism, trade agreements and globalization, reminding us of oldies like the Marshall Plan, “The folly of bilateralism in global trade”.

Today it is China and America, with Wolf referencing the “reform and opening up” proposed in 1978 by Mao Zedong’s successor, Deng Xiaoping.

Sir, about a month ago I had the chance to visit a wonderful small regional museum in Sweden, the Blekinge Museum. It lies very close to my recently deceased mother’s family house, in which I spent a lot of time in my youth. It was a shocking and a humbling experience. It was not a museum of very old times gone by; it was a museum of so much of my (1950), (and Wolfs) times gone by.

Images of heavy horses pulling carriages full of hay, Olivetti accounting machines, telephone exchanges with hundred of cables, old bicycles, wrinkled by rough seas rowing boats, and hundred similar items that I have lived with, but that mostly no longer exists, and are much less used, shouted out… “Per, what on earth do you know about tomorrow… what does anyone know?”

Coming out of the museum, more than ever, I felt like praying “God make us daring”; or at least God make my children, grandchildren and their descendants daring, so that they are not among the so many to be left behind… doomed (by automation and robots) to end up like the heavy horses of my time. God let them live free of that complacency Tyler Cowen writes about in “The Complacent Class”… faraway from the high priests of complacency.

And as for me, and as for Martin Wolf, as economists, as citizens, as parents and grandparents, if we only look back, and do not do our utmost to imagine what lies around the corners of tomorrow then, like old soldiers (and heavy horses) we might perhaps better fade away.

Does all what we older have lived not mean anything for the young? Of course it should signify a lot… but much more in terms of wisdom, than in terms of knowledge.

@PerKurowski

If Britain wants to prosper, it needs to rid itself of dangerously loony and useless bank regulation

Sir, Augustus Fukushima writes: “Britain must invest aggressively. Key sectors such as transport, education, and manufacturing suffer from chronic under-investment. The government must not relegate itself to the back seat by assuming a purely regulatory role but must instead lead investment” “Brexit Britain must go on the offensive to prosper” February 3.

Oh if only government had assumed a proper purely regulatory role. But, with their risk weighted capital requirements for banks they distorted the allocation of bank credit to the real economy.

First, with a risk weight of 0% for the sovereign and one of 100% for the citizens they guaranteed the government a too favorable access to bank credit.

Then, with for instance a 35% risk weight for financing houses and a 100% risk weight for SMEs and entrepreneurs; they allowed banks to leverage more their equity with loans to house buyers than with loans to SMEs or entrepreneurs; which de facto means banks earn higher expected risk-adjusted returns on equity on loans to house buyers than on loans to SMEs or entrepreneurs; which results in that banks will much prefer financing the “safe” basements in which kids without jobs can live with their parents, than the “risky” SMEs or entrepreneurs that could help the kids get the jobs they need to be able to afford buying a house and become parents too.

If Britain wants to prosper, it needs to get rid of this dangerously loony and useless bank regulation. Useless? Of course, as Voltaire would have put it if a regulator: “May God defend our banks from what they perceive as safe, from what they perceive as risky they can defend themselves.”

PS. FT’s Future of Britain Project would be much well served by asking the regulators some questions as those in the link below. But we can’t have that can we?

http://subprimeregulations.blogspot.se/2016/12/must-one-go-on-hunger-strike-to-have.html

@PerKurowski

The most stressful banks to me are those who least help the future of our real economy.

Sir, Laura Noonan, Rachel Sanderson and James Shotter present EU’s bank stress test results. “Bank stress tests single out the usual suspects” August 1.

And it ranks the banks based on their 2018 fully loaded common equity tier one ratio, which is CRD IV Common Equity Tier 1 capital divided by CRD IV Risk Weighted Assets. And so let us be very clear, if the risk weights used are wrong, the results are absolutely meaningless.

Sir, how long will you all play along with the current regulators as if they were geniuses setting risk weights, as if they had any idea of what they are doing? Are you totally deprived of intellectual honesty?

If you go to EBA’s stress result you will read “The EU banking sector has significant shored up its capital base in recent years leading to a starting point capital position for the stress test sample of 13.2 % CET1 ratio at the end 2015… 2% higher than the sample of 2014 and 4% higher than the sample in 2011”. 

That’s great!... sort of… because it also states that “the aggregate leverage ratio decreases from 5.2% to 4.2% in the adverse scenario”. In terms of real leverage what does from 5.2% to 4.2% leverage ratio mean? It means that in their “adverse scenario” the bank leverage of equity has increased from 19.2 to 23.8 to 1… and that’s just the average!

How is it possible, an increase of the CET1 ratio, at the same time the leverage increases? Easy, banks take on more of those assets perceived, decreed or concocted as safe that carry low risk weights, and less of those assets perceived by bankers and regulators alike like more risky that carry higher risk weights, such as loans to SMEs and entrepreneurs. The real economy will suffer the impacts of this stupid and short-sighted regulatory risk aversion.

We should of course be concerned with the safety of our deposits in our banks… but, should we not concerned with that these banks take the risks needed to offer our children and grandchildren a future at least as good as that one our parents offered us? I sincerely think so.

PS. And it not only about the young. The welfare of future pensioners depend very much too on the health of the economy.

@PerKurowski ©

There are many reasons we the aging should pray for the young allowing us to fade away with grace

Sir, Manoj Pradhan explores the question: “What will the future hold for the world’s ageing populations” and titles his article “Ageing economies will grow old with grace” October 14. That is indeed a sunny view; let’s pray for it.

When Pradham writes: “The elderly will resist moving out of their homes; a huge wave of construction will be needed to house the young and the millennials” some difficult questions linger: Are the young and the millennials willing to cast themselves as the downstairs and allow the upstairs elderly to stay in their homes? Will the savings and pension plans of the elderly be sufficient for them to stay in their homes? With retirement comes the wish to hold savings more liquid and so who is going to finance that huge wave of construction?

As I have argued for years, bank regulators, with their capital requirements based on perceived credit risk, which has given perceived credit risk too much weight, has caused a stagnant world… and to keep social structures amiable to all in a stagnant world is not an easy task. 

In March 2007 Peter Peterson, in FT, concluded his “Sacrifice can solve the entitlement crisis”, by citing the German theologian Dietrich on the ultimate test in moral society being the world it leaves for the children, and saying that “It is time for us to become worthy and moral ancestors.”

And in August 2006, finished an article I sent to FT, but that was not published with the following:

“It is said that in Scandinavia, a long time ago, when the older people felt that they stood in the way of the young, they threw themselves off steep cliffs known as an ättestupa. These days it could seem like quite the opposite, if we consider how our democracies might have been captured by us baby boomers. We need to revise urgently how our society deals with the next generations, before they throw us down an ättestupa—for damned good reasons!”

Sir, there are many reasons we the aging should pray for the young allowing us to fade away with grace.

@PerKurowski ©

More than the decline of individual countries, we are experiencing the decline of the world in general.

Sir, any country that signs up on the idea of allowing banks to hold less equity when lending to what is perceived as safe, than when ending to what is perceived as risky, has ordained a risk aversion that will cause it to decline. It will not longer finance sufficiently the more risky future, but will try to trot along for a while, by refinancing the safer past. Most of the world is currently implementing this type of Basel Committee regulations, China included.

And so any discussion on the decline of any country, like Gideon Rachman’s “Britain’s risky obsession with America’s wane” April 7, needs to be held against the perspective of a general decline.

For a starter no country with this type of regulations can aspire to reach world leadership based on its own efforts. Any increased leadership it could reach would only be based on someone else losing it faster.

Rachman refers to some having complained about Britain’s abandonment of “kith and kin” in the Commonwealth. Be that as it may it is much worse; like most of the world, it is abandoning its children, by refusing to take the risks needed for them to move forward, hiding in the very short-term safety of safe havens… soon to be dangerously overpopulated.

But again, of what importance can such minutia be to FT?

@PerKurowski

Should an 81 years old Scot, have had more right to vote on Scotland independency than a newborn Scot?

Sir, on your first page September 19, we saw the photo of a Jock Robertson, who from how he is dressed is undoubtedly a Scot, and who says: “I have waited all my life for this vote”.

He is 81 years old… and my first though was, I am sure he might deserve to vote, and I am truly happy for him… but, really, should an 81 years old Scot be allowed to vote for on the future of Scotland, when all those under 16, and who will be much longer affected by the outcome cannot?

And it is not that I suggest new born should vote… but I wonder if Jock Robertson, exercising a voting right in the name of perhaps a young grandchild of his, would vote the same as he voted his own vote.

In these baby-boomers’ days and when so many of those 18 to 25 year olds do not seem sufficient interested in elections so as to look up from their I-pads, I have often thought that democracy would be much more dynamic and responsible, if mothers, or fathers, were allowed to vote in the name of their children…

And I say this also because then perhaps we would be able to have governments who do not accept the risk aversion of regulators, and which have banks not financing the future but only refinancing the past.

In 2006 I published an Op-Ed in Venezuela that stated: “Whenever on television we see a desperately poor mother telling how she has been let down again by politicians, it just evidences that her voice and her vote does not count enough.

If that mother, or father, besides speaking in the name of her or his own voting rights, were also speaking on behalf of the votes of their children, her or his voice would carry much more power.

Since it is the young who will benefit, or suffer, for a longer time from what governments’ do or not do, they not only should have a vote but also perhaps have more votes than adults. In some countries, especially those who demographically are in the process of becoming real baby-boomer dictatorships, the lack of representation of youth can have serious consequences.

We see all around us how the short-term interest reigns, we even hear now about accounting in real time, while problems that are perceived as of a more long-term nature, such as protection the environment [and lack of jobs] accumulate everywhere.

To assign a voting right to the newborn, can be the most effective way to remind all other voters that there are also who are interested in what might happen in eighty years time.”

In summary, if the average life is eighty years, a new born should have 80 votes (exercised by his mother or older brother) someone like me would have 16 votes left, and someone over eighty should count his blessings and be glad if he is allowed to keep one as a memento. I do not want to owe the world to my children, I want to assure their rights as stakeholders and make it all more of a joint venture.

http://onechildonevote.blogspot.com

How can the west have faith in its own future when its banks are hindered to finance it?

Sir, Gideon Rachman writes “The west is losing faith in its own future” December 10.

Absolutely, but how could the west not? Capital requirements for banks that are much much lower for assets perceived as absolutely safe, than on assets perceived as risky, allow banks to earn much higher risk-adjusted returns on what is “safe” than on what is “risky” and that stops banks from financing the future and makes these concentrate on refinancing, while its worth something, the safer past.

Rest assured, with its current castrated banking system, the west would never ever have become what it became.

Regulation ordering brutish and silly risk avoidance by banks, only guarantees a sluggish future.

Sir, when you allow banks to hold much much less capital when lending to The Infallible than when lending to The Risky, this allows banks to earn much higher risk adjusted expected returns on equity when lending to the former than when lending to the latter.

And so those actors who we find on the margins of the real economy and who we most need to have access to bank credit, namely medium and small businesses, entrepreneurs and start ups, will get the least of it. And since the future is built upon risk taking and not upon risk avoidance that is the most important cause for “Why the future looks sluggish”. 

That does of course not diminish some of the other explanations put forward by Martin Wolf on November 20. When Wolf correctly writes that we need to “facilitate capital flows to emerging and developing countries” he shows he has failed to understand that there are many emerging opportunities waiting to be developed in developed countries, only because of these bank regulations.

Sir, when Wolf concludes “It will be better to risk mistakes than accept the costs of an impoverished future” he shows some indications of being on the right track but, in his world, he clearly prefers the public sector to take risks, for instance with “a surge in public investments”, before banks doing so.

And I do not. I firmly believe in the banks being the prime agents appointed by society in order to, with reasoned audacity, take the needed risks on its behalf.

But in order for our bankers to take risks on The Risky, we must of course get rid of regulation which de facto prohibits them to do so.

PS. Sir, just to let you know, I am not copying Martin Wolf with this, as he has asked me not to send him any more comments related to the capital requirements for banks, as he has already understood it all… at least so he thinks.

No Europe! Don’t listen to FT. Your only chance is to explore more productive bays, even risking more hitting hidden rocks.

Sir, you write “Steer Europe away from hidden rocks”. November 16… and there you hold: “The tide of cheap money that is lifting all boats will soon be on the ebb. Britain and Europe should navigate their economic challenges now, or risk being beached on the same shore.”

First the tide of cheap money has not and is NOT lifting all boats. “The Risky”, like medium and small businesses, entrepreneurs and start ups, those Britain and Europe most need to get into action, are immobilized for the lack of bank credit, only because bank regulators require banks to have more capital for exposures to them.

Second you are NOT risking being beached on the same shore, you are risking dying gasping for oxygen in the same dangerously overpopulated safe havens, those to which banks can have exposures to against minimum capital.

Britain and Europe, your only chance is to explore more productive bays, even though you risk more hit hidden rocks. Future is only built upon risk-taking, never ever on risk avoidance.