What if prejudices in India had caused banks having to hold more capital when lending to women than when lending to men?

Sir, Martin Wolf, discussing India’s prospects mentions the “striking structural feature of India, whose significance goes far beyond economics, is social preference for sons.”, “Modi’s India is on course for rapid growth” February 7.

But the western world, by means of their bank regulators, also imposed on India that nutty preference for what is perceived as safe over what is perceived as risky. And that, for a developing country, given as risk taking is the oxygen of any development, is bloody murderous; as I have insisted on during the last two decades, in statements at the World Bank, in statements at the UN republished by an Indian university, in hundreds of Op-Ed and articles, and in innumerable letters to FT and to Martin Wolf.

Before these distorting regulations, banks invested in assets based on their risk adjusted yields; after, they now also adjust for the allowed leverages in order to maximize their returns on equity. That means overpopulating “safe”-havens and under exploring those “risky” bays, like entrepreneurs and SMEs, which all countries need to be explored if they are going to develop, or keep their development from regressing.

To think that what is perceived as safe (cars) is more dangerous to our bank systems than what is perceived as risky (motorcycles), only reminds me of that mutual admiration club of besserwisser experts that defended geocentricity… and of Martin Wolf as one of the inquisitors.

https://subprimeregulations.blogspot.com/2007/10/are-bank-regulations-coming-from-basle.html

@PerKurowski

Amazing how an anthropologist, like Gillian Tett, can believe that our financial markets are driven by lust for risks

Sir, Gillian Tett writes: “if we want to avoid a replay of 2007, we must keep questioning our assumptions — and peering at the parts of the system that seem “boring”, “geeky” and “dull”. Our mental bins can sometimes hold time-bombs” “The next crash risk is hiding in plain sight” August 10.

Indeed! And one of the greatest drivers of such time-bombs is confusing ex ante perceived risks with ex post risks.

But Ms. Tett also writes “Sometimes, market shocks occur because investors have taken obviously risky bets — just look at the tech bubble in 2001”. What? Does FT’s in house anthropologist really believe investors were taking “obviously risky bets”? Was it not much more the illusion of very high-risk adjusted returns that caught the investors’ attention?

But Ms. Tett also writes: “Most investors assume that Treasuries are the risk-free pillar of modern finance”. What? If there is anyone who has really assumed that, it is the bank regulators when they, in 1988, with Basel I, began to assign 0% risk-weights to sovereigns.

Ms. Tett also writes “precisely because the system has become so flush with cash — and seemingly calm — there is complacency; and not just about the dangers of clearly risky bets (say, Argentine bonds), but about the perils of “safe” assets too”.

Not really, the complacency about clearly risky bets is almost non-existent when compared to that related to safe assets.

As an example of riskiness Tett points out “an obscure “Inverse Vix” ETF that benefits from low volatility… the world’s 34th most actively traded equity security…[and] that has returned almost 100 per cent this year. What? Is she really arguing that something which offered the expectations of large returns and that has actually provided almost 100 per cent return this year, is riskier than holding 10 year German bunds yielding certain negative rates?

Sir, it is so hard to understand how Ms. Tett, and most of you, even when acknowledging that “The next crash risk is hiding in plain sight”, seem unable to wrap your minds around the fact that what is really dangerous, for instance to our banking system, is what is perceived as safe… and that therefore the current risk weighted capital requirements, besides dangerously distorting the allocation of bank credit to the real economy, are incredibly dumb.

Sir, were you a part of the inquisition, you would most certainly be prosecuting Galileo.

@PerKurowski

Current bank regulating technocrats posing as scientifically knowledgeable are just vulgar impostors.

Sir, Anjana Ahuja refers to how Galileo was imprisoned by the Roman Catholic Church for his conviction that the Earth went round the Sun, and warns scientists may well feel the heat from those in power once again, referring here clearly to Donald Trump. “Echoes of Galileo in the populist retreat from reason” December 7.

Sir, careful there, often those in power masquerade as scientists. For instance bank regulators of the Basel Committee and the Financial Stability Board, behave much more like theologians than the scientists they purport themselves to be. Their creed is: Assets perceived ex ante perceived as risky are ex post risky, and so banks should therefore hold more capital against these.

And if a third, or much lesser class Galileo like me, dares to argue that what is perceived as risky, becomes less dangerous precisely because of that ex ante perception; while what is perceived as safe becomes more dangerous precisely because of that ex ante perception, then he has to be ignored and his questions should not be answered. 

Sir, you want further proof about these fake scientists? Ahuja writes: “Why is science under siege? One possible explanation is that it favours objective evidence over subjective experience.” Well, the Basel Committee never even researched in order obtain objective evidence of what has caused all previous major bank crises, before adopting their own subjectivity as their guiding light.

Lately I have been wondering whether I need to go on a hunger strike or take similar extreme actions, in order to get some response to some very basic questions from the impostors. But perhaps I should refrain from doing so, since I could be burned at the stake… and without the science respectful FT, perhaps also feeling alleviated, not even reporting on the incident.

Like Martin Luther I might just nail my questions on some Church door in Basel, and take it from there.

PS. Let us not forget that Galileo's views were at one moment considered "alternative facts" or "fake news"

@PerKurowski

We the rest also want Galileo

Sir we, the rest of the world, fully agree with Pierre Bartholomé and Kevin Madders´ “Why the Galileo project must go ahead” November 19, for reasons of our own. Just to be on the safe side we prefer two navigational systems so that we can either average out their results or concern ourselves with any differences. Can you imagine having to rely on just one source to tell you where you find yourself? What horrific systemic errors could ensue. In fact why should we not have at least three systems to tell us where to go, especially when seeing how the financial sector, even with their three credit rating agencies sextant, so utterly lost itself?