Tim Harford do not compare hurricane Katrina to our 2007/08-bank crisis. The first was nature the second was manmade

Sir, Tim Harford with respect to the global financial crisis, and referring to the fact that Hurricane Ivan of 2004 should have better prepared New Orleans for Katrina in 2005 asks: “even if we had clearly seen the crisis coming, would it have made a difference?” “Mental bias leaves us unprepared for disaster” August 19.

That is indeed a question, but a more precise one would be: “If we had clearly understood why a crisis had to come, would it have made a difference?”

Here is my simplified version of that issue.

Suppose a SME offered to pay the bank 6.5% in interest rate, which the bank saw as 2% for it’s cost of funds, 3% for the risk of the SME and 1.5% in net risk adjusted margin. Suppose also an AAA rated offering to pay 3.5% in interests, which the bank sees again as 2% for it’s cost of funds, 0.5% in risk premium and so therefore yielding a resulting risk adjusting net margin of 1%.

In all those more than 600 years of banking before the risk weighted capital requirements were introduced, bankers would lend to whom offered the largest risk adjusted net margin perceived, in the previous case to the SME.

But, after Basel II banks could leverage the SME’s offer 12.5 times, which would produce the bank an expected ROE of 18.75%, while the AAA rated could be leveraged 62.5 times, yielding an expected ROE of 62.5%.

Then of course the banks would naturally have to lend to the AAA rated, as not doing so would actually be ignoring their fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders.

So here is the real question. If that distortion in the allocation of bank credit had been duly understood, would it have made a difference? My answer would be a qualified “Yes!” That because, as a minimum minimorum, regulators would have understood that since their capital requirements were (loony) portfolio invariant, they would have to be especially careful with excessive growth of “safe” investments... like those AAA rated securities. 

Harford writes: “10 years on, senior Federal Reserve official Stanley Fischer is having to warn against ‘extremely dangerous and extremely short-sighted’ efforts to dismantle financial regulations.”

Sir, I warn instead against not dismantling entirely those financial regulations that caused the crisis… and that now keep sending all QE and low interest stimuli down unproductive roads.

PS. And not to speak about the 0% risk weighing of sovereigns, that which caused the excessive bank exposures to for instance Greece.

PS. One day Stanley Fischer, like most current central bankers and regulators will ask himself, why did I not see that?

@PerKurowski

One day, Stanley Fischer, like most current central bankers and regulators, will ask himself, why did I not see that?

Sir, Sam Fleming writes: “Fischer worries about attacks by lawmakers on global regulatory bodies such as the Financial Stability Board, arguing that the rules it proposes are good for the world if everyone adopts them.” “Lunch with the FT Stanley Fischer ‘It’s dangerous and short-sighted’” August 19. Like Gershwin wrote it, “It ain’t necessarily so!”

In November 1999 in an Op-Ed in Venezuela I wrote: “The possible Big Bang that scares me the most, is the one that could happen the day those genius bank regulators in Basel, playing Gods, manage to introduce a systemic error in the financial system, which will cause its collapse”

In April 2003 as an Executive Director of the World Bank I argued that Board that "A mixture of thousand solutions, many of them inadequate, may lead to a flexible world that can bend with the storms. A world obsessed with Best Practices may calcify its structure and break with any small wind."

And in January 2003, FT published a letter in which I stated: “Everyone knows that, sooner or later, the ratings issued by the credit agencies are just a new breed of systemic errors, about to be propagated at modern speeds”

Sir, had regulators not introduced their risk weighted capital requirements for banks, made worse by the importance given to some few human fallible credit rating agencies, the 2007/08 crisis would not have happened; and the economy, net of automation and demographic factors, and considering the outlandish stimuli, would not be as stagnant as it is now.

PS. That Op-Ed I referred to above also included: “I recently heard that SEC was establishing higher capital requirements for stockbroker firms, arguing that “. . . the weak have to merge to remain. We have to get rid of the rotten apples so that we can renew the trust in the system.” As I read it, it establishes a very dangerous relationship between weak and rotten. In fact, the financially weakest stockbroker in the system could be providing the most honest services while the big ones, just because of their size, can also bring down the whole world. It has always surprised me how the financial regulatory authorities, while preaching the value of diversification, act in favor of concentration.”

Let me translate that into the current risk weightings. “It establishes a very dangerous relation between risk and the right to access credit. The “risky”, like SMEs, could be providing the most important additions to the real economy, while sovereigns and AAA rated, just because of their perceived “safety”, could bring the whole world down.”

@PerKurowski