Showing posts with label deficit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label deficit. Show all posts

April 19, 2017

Why do bank credit’ surpluses and deficits not attract the same concerns as does trade’s surpluses and deficits?

Sir, Martin Wolf writes: “What is frightening about the trade agenda of the administration is that it manages to be both irrelevant and damaging. A relevant agenda would focus on the imbalances in savings and investment across the world economy” “Dealing with America’s trade follies” April 19.

Of course Wolf, like IMF among others, is right to be concerned with growing trade protectionism. What I can’t understand is why he, and IMF among most others, is not at all concerned with the consequences of financial protectionism?

I ask because the risk weighted capital requirements for banks are just like any other sort of tariff. It benefits some, and hurts other… in all it dangerously distorts the allocation of bank credit to the real economy, for no good purpose at all, as it does not promote financial stability, much the contrary.

In November 2004 FT published a letter titled “Basel just a mutual admiration club of firefighters seeking to avoid crisis” In it I wrote: “We wonder how many Basel propositions it will take before they start realizing the damage they are doing by favoring so much bank lending to the public sector. In some developing countries, access to credit for the private sector is all but gone, and the banks are up to the hilt in public credits.”

Of course there I was referring to the fact that the Basel Committee had decreed that the sovereigns were safer than the private sectors on which usually the sovereign depended.

Could the problem be that Wolf does not understand that allowing banks to leverage their equity (and the societal support they receive) differently for different assets distorts?

Or is it that Wolf, and the IMF, also belong to that admiration club and therefore dare or cannot breakup with its own groupthink?


PS. If I am obsessed with the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, which I am, then Martin Wolf must be just as obsessed with his “macroeconomic imbalances”.

@PerKurowski

January 12, 2015

Europe, get rid of risk-weights, impose a 10% leverage ratio, and have ECB's helicopter drop equity on your banks

Sir, Wolfgang Münchau, as a tool to avert deflation in Europe, mentions the possibilities of a sizable QE helicopter drop in Europe, like €10.000 per citizen; and, sort of shamelessly using the tragic recent Paris as an excuse, argues for more fiscal stimulus, “Eurozone needs to act before deflation takes hold” January 12.

And I have to wonder, again, what goes on in his and other columnist minds, when they make suggestions like these, while at the same time they do not seem bothered by that Europe’s banks are ordered not to lend to those perceived as risky, like to small businesses and entrepreneurs. Because that is what de facto happens when regulators allow banks to hold less equity against exposures perceived as safe than against exposures perceived as risky.

What would I do? Perhaps order a 10 percent not risk weighted leverage ratio imposed on all European banks to substitute for all credit risk discriminating equity requirements; and then have the ECB to subscribe and pay in what new bank equity might be needed on a case by case basis, all with a firm-commitment to resell those shares to the market within a given period.

That would not only help to fight deflation, but, much more importantly, it would allow those tough risk-taking agents that the economy needs in order to grow when the going gets tough, to get going again.

July 18, 2007

About Banana Republics and the moments of reckoning

Sir in March 1999 I published and article where I held that the effects of the global warming might be more severe than we thought as it seemed to even have shifted the parallel of the tropical Banana Republics northward, since how could we otherwise explain the current enormous fiscal and commercial deficits in the United States.

Now, eight years later, when Kenneth Rogoff in “Americans will eventually learn that deficits do matter”, July 18, mentions that “continuing inflows are probably holding down interest rates by at least 1.5 per cent and possibly more” I cannot help but to think of those investors that quite recently thought they were doing splendidly, when valued by a model, but that now have to face some crude realities when marked to a market that sometimes does not even seem to exist.