Regulators forced banks into what’s perceived safe, thereby forcing the usually most risk adverse into what’s perceived risky.

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth writes “Many investors such as pension funds and insurers [are] pushed towards the only other option: venturing into the riskier corners of the bond market, such as fragile countries, heavily indebted companies and exotic, financially engineered instruments. These are securities they would normally shun — or at least demand a much higher return to buy.” “Negative yields force investors to snap up riskier debt” August 16.

As an example he mentions “Victoria a UK-based company that issued a €330m five-year bond that drew more than €1bn of orders [because] the relatively high 5.25 per cent yield it offered, helped investors swallow misgivings over its leverage.”

Clearly liquidity injections, like central banks’ huge QEs, has helped to move interest rates much lower everywhere, but, as I see it, much, or perhaps most of what Wigglesworth refers to is the direct consequence of the risk weighted capital requirements for banks.

That regulations allowed banks to leverage much more their capital with what’s perceived (decreed or concocted) as safe, than with what’s perceived as risky, which meant that banks can more easily obtain higher risk adjusted returns on equity with the safe than with the risky… and those incentives were as effective as ordering the banks what to do. That made banks substitute their savvy loan officers, precisely those who would be evaluating and lending to a Victoria, with equity minimizing financial engineers.

As a result the interest rates charged to the safe… little by little forced those who did not posses savvy loan officers to take up the role of banks.

Will it stop there? Not necessarily. Banks, and their regulators, are now slowly waking up to the fact that the margins that the regulation benefited “safes” offer, are not enough for banks to survive as banks. 

But how to get out of that mess will not be easy. Solely as an example, when in 1988 bank regulators assigned America’s public debt a 0.00% risk weight, its debt was about $2.6 trillion, now it is around $22 trillion and still has a 0.00% risk weight. How do you believe markets would react if it increased to 0.01%? 

@PerKurowski

Venezuela’s undernourished children urgently need a huge public debt into oil extraction conversion plan

Sir, Colby Smith and Robin Wigglesworth report that Venezuela’s “opposition government plans to hold all its foreign creditors to the same terms no matter the kind of debt held, which public entity issued it, and whether or not the creditor had previously gone to a courthouse and received a judgment.” But also “Claims connected to the alleged corruption of the Chávez or Maduro regimes will be excluded” as will be those presenting “pricing inconsistencies or pending arbitration claims [until] would investigated further” “Venezuela’s opposition sets out debt restructuring plans” July 4, 2019.

On that I agree, 100%. And Venezuela presents a golden opportunity for the citizens of the world, to be able to reach a clear definition on what should be considered odious credits, and to agree on their consequences.

But, what I do not see yet, is the real understanding that Venezuela’s most urgent problem is not debt restructuring, it is that its people are dying and foremost that its young are growing up undernourished.

Let’s face it; no matter how much humanitarian aid can come to Venezuela, the problems with lack of food, medicines and basic day to day needs will not be solved, until sufficient oil extraction generates sufficient oil revenues. And of course until sufficient oil extraction generates sufficient oil revenues, neither will there be enough money to pay off creditors.

So all my gut instincts, acquired by having actively and frequently participated in large debt restructurings in the private sector, but also by having promoted and completed projects of Venezuelan public debt to equity conversions into industry and tourism projects, tells me the following:

Venezuela needs to sit down with its creditors, today, and come up with a plan of how to convince qualified oil extractors to put their money into Venezuela and begin extracting oil as fast as possible. Of course for that to happen there would have to be a reasonable agreement on how to share the net oil revenues between oil extractors, creditors and the Venezuelan citizens.

I do not mention the Venezuelan government since I am convinced that the only way we Venezuelans can end up living in a nation, and not in somebody else’s business, is to have our government work exclusively with what we citizens provide it with by means of taxes. And because I have learned to utterly dislike redistribution profiteers, of all sorts.

That said of course I understand the need for some type of transition agreement, like a period in which more and more of those net oil and other natural resource revenues are turned over by the government to citizens. Like reaching 100% of it in ten years.

Sir, here's a tweet I have been sending out now and again for about two years: “So Venezuelans can eat quickly, hand over Pdvsa (and Citgo) to Venezuela’s creditors quickly, to see if they put all that junk to work quickly, to see if they collect something quickly, and pay us Venezuelans, not the bandits, our oil royalties quickly.

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-simple-but-complex-question-from.html”

PS. Instead of oil production I prefer to use the term oil extraction, since I feel that to be more respectful and grateful to that hand of the providence that placed oil under Venezuelan land.

PS. “Living in somebody else’s business” was how a woman from a Uganda described to me in 2013, her and our case.

https://theoilcurse.blogspot.com/2013/04/we-oil-cursed-citizens-we-do-not-live.html

@PerKurowski

The more voluminous data is, and the faster it is transmitted, the faster we can be sent over a cliff.

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth writes: “The amount of digital data around the world is unimaginably vast. As more of our social and economic activity migrates online, the quantity and quality is going to increase exponentially. The potential is mind-boggling”,“Big Data’s power to illuminate leaves public sector in the shadows” April 20.

In April 2003, when as an Executive Director of the World Bank I formally commented on its strategic plan I wrote: "Nowadays, when information is just too voluminous and fast to handle, market or authorities have decided to delegate the evaluation of it into the hands of much fewer players such as the credit rating agencies. This will, almost by definition, introduce systemic risks in the market"

And it sure happened. The AAA rated securities backed with mortgage to the subprime sector in the US, send us straight into the 2007/08 crisis. 

In other words it is not just a question of data availability, in real time, but also on how we respond to it. It might behoove us all, to take a long time to digest it, before we react to it.

For example, and I quote from a BBC report: “On the 26 of September 1983, in the early hours of the morning, the Soviet Union's early-warning systems detected an incoming missile strike from the United States. Computer readouts suggested several missiles had been launched. The protocol for the Soviet military would have been to retaliate with a nuclear attack of its own. But duty officer Stanislav Petrov - whose job it was to register apparent enemy missile launches - decided not to report them to his superiors, and instead dismissed them as a false alarm. This was a breach of his instructions, a dereliction of duty. The safe thing to do would have been to pass the responsibility on, to refer up. But his decision may have saved the world.”

Sir, so what delay factor do we need to introduce before we respond to any real time data? I have no idea. You tell me.

@PerKurowski

Venezuela poses a unique opportunity, for all citizens of the world, to clearly define what should be considered as odious credits, and how these should be treated.

Sir, Colby Smith and Robin Wigglesworth quote a holder of Venezuelan debt with: “The ultimate objective is to reach a point where [Venezuela] regains market access at market-determined terms without the risk of renewed default”,“Venezuela debt fight pits veterans against hot-headed newcomers” March 13.

It is absolutely clear Venezuela needs much financing to reconstruct its entire run down basic infrastructure but, as a citizen, having seen how much public indebtedness goes hand in hand with corruption and waste, and how it so often makes it harder for the private sector to finance its needs, I would not mind Venezuela not reaching that “ultimate objective” for a long-long time, especially not as long as the government already receives directly all oil revenues.

Our Constitution clearly establishes that all “Mineral and hydrocarbon deposits of any nature that exist within the territory of the nation… are of public domain, and therefore inalienable and not transferable” and yet 99% of the debt it contracts is implicitly based on its creditors having access to the revenues produced by extracting Venezuela’s non-renewable natural resources, mainly oil. 

So now, the least our legitimate creditors could do, is to help us extract oil; and to that effect the following is a message I have been tweeting for about two years: “For Venezuelans to be able to eat quickly, starts by quickly handing over PDVSA’s junk to its and Venezuela’s creditors, so that they quickly put it to work, to see if they are able to quickly collect something, so to pay us citizens, not bandits, some oil royalties quickly”

But, that said, what is most important is to classify all Venezuela’s debts. Many of these were not duly approved; others had a large ingredient of corruption and lack of transparency and so all these must be scrutinized in order to establish their legitimacy.

For example, when Goldman Sachs in May 2017 handed over $800 million cash in exchange for $2.8billion Venezuelan bonds paying a 12.75% interest rate, to a notoriously corrupt and inept regime that was committing crimes against humanity. Especially since Lloyd Blankfein cannot argue an “I did not know”, that to me is as odious as odious credits come.

Sir, it behooves all citizens of the world to use this opportunity to set up an adequate defense against governments anywhere, mortgaging their future with odious credit/odious debts.

That also includes stopping statist regulators from distorting with a 0% risk weight the allocation of bank credit in favor of the sovereign, against the 100% risk weighted citizens. 

@PerKurowski

When restructuring Venezuela’s debt, start with identifying all odious credits.

Colby Smith writes “analysts reckon Venezuela has some $140bn debt outstanding with over $65bn owed to bondholders and another roughly $40bn due to China and Russia.” “Venezuela’s welter of debt will mean a messy restructuring” February 2.

The key word here is “reckon”… because the indebtedness of Venezuela has clearly not followed a transparent process. Frequently there are references to odious debts, but very rarely or never to the fact that these most often arise from odious credits that should never have been awarded. That “odiousness” extends from a shameful lack of due diligence to outright participation in corrupt acts.

All citizens in the world would greatly benefit from having a clear definition of what should be considered odious credits, and of its consequences. Without it, any Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM) similar to the one proposed 2002 at the IMF by Anne O. Kruger, would be found wanting.

PS. Because Robin Wigglesworth has touched on this theme I am copying him. 

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/05/06/2161045/donald-trump-and-the-sovereign-debt-restructuring-mechanism-revisited/

https://www.ft.com/content/fa6850cc-96c3-11e7-b83c-9588e51488a0

Bank regulators would do well reading up on Shakespeare (and on conditional probabilities)

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth writing about risk and leverage quotes Shakespeare in Romeo and Juliet, “These violent delights have violent ends”, and argues “It is a phrase investors in the riskier slices of the loans market should bear in mind.” “Investors should beware leveraged loan delights that risk violent ends” August 25.

Sir, we would all have benefitted if our bank regulators had known their Shakespeare better. Then they might have been more careful with falling so head over heels in love with what looks delightfully safe.

The Basel Committee, Basel II, 2004, for their standardized approach risk weights for bank capital requirements, assigned a risk weight of 20% to what was AAA to AA rated, and one of 150% to what is below BB- rated. 

That meant, with a basic requirement of 8%, that banks needed to hold 1.6% in capital against what was AAA to AA rated and 12% against what is rated below BB-.

That meant that banks were allowed to leverage 62.5 times if only a human fallible rating agencies awarded an asset an AAA to AA rating, and only 8.3 times if it had a below BB- rating.

That meant that banks fell for the violent delights of the AAA to AA rated, which of course caused the violent ends we saw in 2007/08.

Sadly, from what it looks like, our current regulators might not have it in them to understand what Shakespeare meant, just as they have no idea about the meaning of conditional probabilities… if they could they might be able to understand that what is ex ante perceived as risky is really not that dangerous.

@PerKurowski

Predictability, in bank regulations, is more a dangerous threat than help

Sir, I refer to Robin Wigglesworth’s excellent discussion on the difficulties and hard choices central banks face when communicating their feelings and policies “Central banks might benefit from a healthy dose of ‘constructive ambiguity’”. May 14.

But let me focus (for the umpteenth time) on the concluding note “Predictability may be a hindrance rather than a help”

The Fed’s Governor Laid Brainard, in a recent speech “An Update on the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Agenda” said: “The primary focus of financial stability policy is tail risk (outcomes that are unlikely but severely damaging) as opposed to the modal outlook (the most likely path of the economy).”

That is how it should be, but it is not! That the riskiness of bank assets, for instance with the help of credit rating agencies, could be somewhat predicted, tempted regulators into creating risk weighted capital requirements for banks; but that same “predictability” also blinded them completely to the fact that the safer something is perceived, the more dangerous does its fat-tail-risk become. For instance they assigned a risk weight of only 20% to the AAA rated and one of 150% to that which was rated below BB-. Is not the fat-tail-risk of what has been rated below BB- almost inexistent?

Governor Leal Brainard also writes: “Treasury yields reflect historically low term premiums--. This poses the risk that term premiums could rise sharply--for instance, if investor perceptions of inflation risks increased.” 

Indeed, but to that we must also add the possibility of the investor perceptions of Treasury infallibility changes for the worse.

When in 1988 the regulators, with Basel I, decided to assign a 0% risk-weight to some sovereigns they painted these into a corner. If that risk weight is not increased, then sovereigns will become, sooner or later over-indebted, and risk will grow until it hits 100%. If that risk weight is increased, ever so slightly, markets will be very scared. How to get out of that corner is the most difficult challenge central banks and bank regulators face. Let us not forget that in 1988 US debt that was $2.6 trillion. Now it is US$21 trillion, growing, and still 0% risk weighted.

PS. The only way to solve the 0% sovereign risk weight conundrum that I see, is to increase the leverage ratio applicable to all assets, until that level where the risk weighted capital requirement totally loses its significance.

PS. Brainard also stated “Regulatory capital ratios for the largest banking firms at the core of the system have about doubled since 2007 and are currently at their highest levels in the post-crisis era.” Regulatory capital ratios, when risk weighted, might mean zilch.

@PerKurowski

Venezuela faces a restructuring between odious creditors and odious debtors, so it behooves us ordinary Venezuelans citizens to intervene and block any odious deals.

Sir, Jonathan Wheatley and Robin Wigglesworth when reporting on the surreal sort of restructuring of Venezuela’s debt by the equally surreal Maduro government write: “Venezuela is already a serial defaulter. It has defaulted on miners, oil companies and other enterprises whose assets it has seized without compensation. It has defaulted on unpaid suppliers to PDVSA, the national oil company. Most seriously, it has defaulted on its people, denying them access to basic foods and medicines, causing an epidemic of weight loss and turning injury or illness into a mortal danger.” “Venezuela bond repayments: dead and alive” November 28.

Sir, the creditors, if they had carried out any minimum due diligence, would have been perfectly aware their financing would not be put to any good use, so for me, all their loans, given only because of juicy risk-premiums or other profit motives, are just odious credits.

And the borrowers, knowing very well they were contracting that debt for no good purposes at all, defines all these borrowings to be odious debts.

So here we are Venezuelans citizens, with children, parents and grandparents dying for lack of food and medicines. Are we now just supposed to sit down and allow this restructuring to happen on whatever odious terms the creditors and the debtors agree on in a petit committee?

No way! As a minimum, for a starter, our General National Assembly not yet in exile needs to authorize our Supreme Court of Justice in exile, to take charge so as to at least determine what could be deemed to be bona fide, dubious, or outright odious credits.

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/search?q=odious+credit

@PerKurowski

A former Executive Director of the World Bank, for Venezuela (2002-2004)

What would you as a bare minimum call creditors knowingly financing a government that in itself constitutes a brutal violation of human rights? Odious?

Sir, John Paul Rathbone, Robin Wigglesworth and Jonathan Wheatley, with respect to the surrealistic debt-restructuring initial steps in Venezuela quote Hans Humes of Greylock Capital, who is forming an investor committee with “Ultimately, there is going to be more money made in Venezuela than even in Argentina”. But the authors also rightly conclude in “The geopolitical and humanitarian consequences are likely to be larger still”, “Caracas plays its last cards” November 22.

Sir, “Food is in short supply” does not even begin to describe the tragedy.

Look at Venezuela as a prison. The food and medicines supplies it receives should be more than enough to keep all inmates healthy, but, since the guards have stolen so much of it, many prisoners, many children among them, are dying. And, in order to be able to steal more, the guards also took on huge debts in the name of the prison. And now the original creditors, or those who bought in at a later stage, and who all had all the possibilities of knowing very well what was going on, but that turned a blind eye to it when the interest rates offered by the guards were so irresistibly juicy, they want to be repaid. Will the guards do so? Will the prisoners allow that?

I have for decades called for Venezuela’s oil revenues, lately around 97% of all Venezuela’s exports, to be shared out to all its citizens, as the only way to guard against any odious or just plain dumb exercises of centralized statist power.

So what would happen if now the Venezuelans agree, in a referendum, on doing just that and then proceed to carry out the necessary changes in its constitution; and asks the IMF or the World Bank, with the assistance of other banks, to set up an oil revenue distribution system that keeps all oil exports invoiced in the name of Venezuela’s 30 and so million citizens? I am no lawyer but would a judge in New York approve the embargo of Simoncito’s part of oil, that if received would help to feed and keep Simoncito healthy?

Desperate times calls for desperate solutions, but perhaps some desperate solutions carry the potential of turning into magical solutions. For an oil cursed nation like Venezuela, that might just be what opens up its future to a much better tomorrow.

But the rest of the world could also benefit immensely. We quite frequently hear about the need for a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism, SDRM. If such mechanism started by clearly establishing the fact that most odious debts have its origins in odious credits. There often is prohibition against usury, but even more important for all us citizens all around the world, and especially for those generations of citizens coming after us, to have some sort of mechanism that disincentive the award of odious credits to governments.

In reference to that I am begging Venezuela’s National Assembly to request that Venezuela’s Supreme Court of Justice in exile initiates a process destined to carefully revise the origin of all Venezuela’s credits to see if they can be deemed legitimate or not.

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2014/05/risk-premiums-and-ethic-ratings.html

@PerKurowski

Jockeying for position to currently advise Venezuela on its debt restructuring could have serious legal, or at least reputational consequences

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth, with respect to Venezuela’s debt writes: “Any restructuring will be a Herculean task, given US sanctions” “Debt restructuring battle brews over Venezuela” November 21.

It is not only the US sanctions. Since many, or probably most Venezuelan consider those debt origination in odious or at least totally non-transparent credits we have not the faintest trust in that negotiators helping the government to restructure is helping us.

So any negotiator now would have blacklisted himself, for those restructuring negotiations that can only begin in earnest when the Maduro government is gone.

Also I cannot understand that, for instance one of the prime renegotiation advisors you mention like the “mysterious art-loving Mexican billionaire called David Martinez”, can be so naïve so as to believe that the threat of US sanction to Americans will not be extended to anyone substituting for Americans.

In summary you do not advise governments that are violating basic human rights without the possibility of facing very serious consequences for that. As a minimum they should be aware that many of us Venezuelan will, when we can, try to recoup any odious restructuring fees paid to them… and keep them away forever from Venezuela

Personally I am much in favor of the Venezuelan Supreme Court of Justice in exile, requested by the Venezuelan National Assembly, initiates the first stage of any debt restructuring, namely classifying all those debts in bona-fide, dubious or odious. 

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/search?q=Venezuela+debt

@PerKurowski

Could investors in Venezuelan liabilities have thought its government was up to something good? No! So don’t pay them

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth writes: “S&P last week downgraded Venezuela’s rating to the second-lowest rung possible without actually being in default, arguing there is an even chance of a full default within the next three months… Can Venezuela extricate itself from this mess? “Investors left guessing over Venezuela’s liabilities” November 8

Sir, if somebody financed a bank heist should those creditors get their money back if the heist was unsuccessful?

This is not just about Venezuela. It behooves all citizens everywhere to make sure that if creditors finance something they know is bad for the people of its country, only to obtain high risk premiums, they should not be able to expect the people of that country to sacrifice themselves in order to repay that debt.

Or in even clearer terms, should the freed prisoners of a concentration camp be expected to repay those who financed the building of it? 

Sir, we often hear the term “odious debt”. It is high time we concentrate in defining what should be considered as odious credits… because that is where it all starts. 

PS. There could also be reasons to think of “odious regulations”. If European bank regulators had not risk-weighted the capital requirements for banks when lending to Greece at 0%, then Greece would have saved itself much suffering.

@PerKurowski

Worse than odious debt that some might feel urgently needed, is odious credit that needs not to be given

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth writes: “An archaic, often-mentioned but never-invoked legal doctrine called “odious debt” could be tested for the first time in history in Venezuela should the regime be ousted from power.” September 12.

I feel that for us citizens, everywhere, even more important than the concept of odious debt, is to define a legal doctrine on “odious credit”, this for the simple reason that the first would not exist without the latter.

In other words, are we to hold an uneducated trying to survive day-by-day thug like Nicolas Maduro, to higher moral standards than those highly educated in Goldman Sachs’ who, if their education is worth anything, should be able to survive without financing badly masqueraded violations of human rights? I think no!

Sir, we do need a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism, urgently, but if such an SDRM is really to mean something good for the world, then the concept of odious credit has to be an integral part to it.

http://unsustainabledebtsustainability.blogspot.com/2004/04/odious-credit.html

@PerKurowski

Feeble regulatory minds, seeing risks in what’s perceived risky, doom our banks to die trapped in the last safe-haven

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth quotes Paul Singer of Elliott Management with: “Given groupthink and the determination of policymakers to do ‘whatever it takes’ to prevent the next market ‘crash’, the low-volatility levitation magic act of stocks and bonds will exist until it does not. And then all hell will break loose” “Calm waters raise fears of a leverage comeback” June 7.

Indeed, only an intellectual degenerating incestuous groupthink can explain current bank regulators fixation with what is perceived risky. Their risk weighted capital requirements are based on the perceptions of risk being correct, while as all logic screams for, these should be based on the possibilities of these perceptions being incorrect. The riskier something is perceived, the safer it is; and the safer something is perceived, the more dangerous it can become. “May God defend me from my friends, I can defend myself from my enemies”, Voltaire dixit.

Those regulations, by favoring so much what is perceived, (concocted) or decreed as safe, like assigning a 0% risk weight to sovereigns, cause sovereigns to be getting too much credit on too easy terms; and that banks could end up holding only sovereigns on their balance sheets. When that happens who is going to be able to kick the can forward to another safe-haven (gold?), sovereigns or their central bank agents?

Sir, our whole banking system is set on a path that with signs of “follow this safe route”, leads directly to a precipice.

You insist in keeping mum about that. There will come a day you, or at least your children, will deeply regret that.

When will regulators stop feeding us fake tranquilizers?

“Risk weighting” So we are to suppose risks have been duly considered?

“Living wills” So we are supposed to think that trustees are capable to enforce these?

“Stress tests” Tests that ignore the stress to the real economy because of what should be on bank’s balance sheets but is not, like “risky” loans to SMEs?

Dodd-Frank’s “Orderly Liquidation Authority” “Orderly”? No Sir, when the last safe haven runs out of oxygen, I assure you it is going to be anything but orderly… then all hell will really break loose.

Per Kurowski

@PerKurowski

With the Venezuelan bonds purchase, has Goldman Sachs committed an act punishable under Foreign Corrupt Practices Act?

Sir I refer to Robin Wigglesworth’s and Gideon Long’s “Goldman hit by ‘hunger bond’ storm after Venezuela deal” June 2.

There are plenty of persons currently in jail in the US because of acts committed against the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). You can read about many cases in http://www.fcpablog.com

Goldman Sachs, has just handed over about US$865 million cash to the notoriously corrupt and human rights violating government of Venezuela, in order to obtain $2.8billion Venezuelan bonds, which according to some calculations seen, if repaid, would provide GS with about a 48% internal rate of return.

So, has Goldman Sachs, de facto, unwittingly, committed the mother of all corruptions acts punishable under the FCPA? 

http://perkurowski.blogspot.ca/2017/05/goldman-sachs-lloyd-blankfein-should.html

@PerKurowski

The Sovereign’s footmen, the regulators, are force-feeding the economy public debt. When will the liver explode?

Sir, Sam Fleming and Robin Wigglesworth report: “The Fed will need to operate with a much larger balance sheet than before the crisis — at least three times as big, say some investors — in part because of regulatory and other changes governing institutions’ appetite for safe assets” “Fed edges towards paring back its balance sheet” May 2.

Of course, in 1988 the Sovereign had his bank regulation footmen declare him risk free, 0% risk weight, while the citizens, they got a 100% risk weight.

When kicking with QEs the 2007/08 crises can down the road, the Fed as well as some other central banks, purchased enormous amounts of public debt.

With Basel III the regulators kept going at it introducing liquidity requirements that much favored “marketable securities representing claims on or guaranteed by sovereigns”.

Insurance companies’ regulators, with their Solvency II, are closely following the same path.

Now when they are thinking of reeling the 2007/08 can in, to sort of prepare for the next crisis, how is the Fed to do that? Well the authors report that accordingly to Mr Rajadhyaksha, head of macro research at Barclays: “Assuming that it wants to get rid of all its $1.8tn of mortgage bonds as it retreats from the home loan market, it may have to start buying Treasuries again at the tail-end of the process” which means more sovereign debt will be purchased.

In other words the Sovereign’s foot soldiers are de facto force-feeding public debt down the economy’s throat. When will the economy’s liver explode?

And the craziest thing is that most experts still take the interest rates on such debts to be market fixed, and to reflect the real risk-free rate.

How could so much statism have been injected in our system without it being noticed?

This statism de facto presumes that government bureaucrats know better what to do with credit than the private sector. That presumption leads of course to disaster. 

We now read in IMF’s Fiscal Monitor 2017 (page x), with IMF acting like the Sheriff of Nottingham for King John, that “the case for increasing public investments remains strong in many countries in light of low borrowing costs” and that “the persistent decline in the interest rates may have relaxed government budget constraints in advanced economies; if the differential between interest and GDP growth were to remain durably lower than it has been in past decades, countries could be able to sustain higher levels of public debt.” “Low borrowing costs” IMF? Do your research and dare to figure out why. Others are paying for that by having less access to credit.

Sir, IMF has the galls to title 2017 Fiscal Monitor as “Achieving More With Less”, while completely ignoring that over the last decades, Sovereigns, have been Achieving So Much Less With So Much More.

@PerKurowski

Do not odious debts derive directly from odious credits or odious borrowings?

I refer to Jonathan Wheatley’s, Andres Schipani’s and Robin Wigglesworth’s FT: Big Read on the finances of Venezuela “A nation in bondage” November 11. I am taken aback by its distant coolness to what are life and death issues. “revenue-to-payments ratio”?

Sir, I have often asked, and not only in reference to Venezuela: does not what is being financed have anything to do with financing… is it only a matter of risk premiums being right? Let me go extreme to make my case. Should a bond issue that financed some extermination chambers be repaid? And should it then matter whether those chamber use Zyklon B, or the lack of food or medicines. Of course, whether those responsible for any deaths did it with intent, or only because of sheer ineptitude, matters a lot. But for informed financiers? How much “We didn’t know” can you really claim these days?

Sir, the world would be well served by having a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism but, for such a SDRM to also serve We the People well, and not only governments and their financiers, it would have to start to identify very clearly what should be considered odious debt derived from odious credits and odious borrowings.

And it should also define very clearly how much financiers could aspire to have their cake and eat it too. The article quotes Siobhan Morden, a Latin American strategist at Nomura saying “Investors who this year bought a PDVSA bond maturing in April 2017, for example, have made a 70 per cent profit, thanks to coupon payments and a price rise of 50 cents on the dollar as the bond approaches maturity” 

Two questions stand out: The first: should these bondholders be repaid the same as those who purchased the issue originally and held on to it? Perhaps yes, perhaps no. 

The second: Anyone out there thinks this 70% profit over a short period was just a result of a strict financial analysis, or did it contain some inside information that could affect its legal validity.

FT, yes I am Venezuelan, and so I might very well be too much on the crying side on this issue, but what would you in FT say if UK fell into the hands of a totally inept government and this one is kept in place by financiers out for a quick buck?

Sir should only a non-payment cause a default of sovereign bonds? Are there not implicit moral negative covenants that could be called on by the world, such as not letting your people starve only to serve the debt?

PS. Just to make my arguments clearer and therefore hopefully stronger in Venezuela I have been on this issue long before the Chavez/Maduro times.

@PerKurowski

Compared to the poor of Venezuela, PDVSA’s bondholders, as a group and over time, have benefitted way too much

Sir, Eric Platt and Robin Wigglesworth write that PDVSA’s Rafael Rodriguez, Mr del Pino’s chief of staff, appealing to the investors to take part in the proposed swap said: “We hope investors will support PDVSA in the same way that we have supported them for many years”, “Caracas piles on pressure for $5.3bn bond swap” October 19.

For the poor of Venezuela, who demonstratively might not have received more than 15 percent of their per capita share of Venezuela’s oil revenues, that is an insult. I don’t care one iota about these bondholders; as a group and over time they have benefitted way too much.

As an example, Elaine Moore and Simeon Kerr when recently reporting on an upcoming international bond issue of Saudi Arabia wrote: “a banker not involved in the (US$ 20bn) deal, estimates that Saudi Arabia will price at 150bp above US Treasuries for a five-year bond and 160 to 165 for 10-year debt”. “Saudi debt pitch focuses on youth and reform” October 18. Sir, compare that with what the land that advertises itself to have the largest oil reserves in the world, has to pay.

Sir, very high risk premiums paid by a sovereign debtor, might evidence that a government and its financiers, are in cahoots for some mutually benefitting corruption.

And please do not tell us PDVSA is not Venezuela, as like if Aramco is not Saudi Arabia.

@PerKurowski ©

BoE, if you really believe jobs come first, why not capital requirements for banks based on job creation ratings?

Sir, I refer to John Authers and Robin Wigglesworth “Big Read: Pensions: Low yields, high stress” August 23.

There we read that Baroness Altmann, the former UK pensions minister, said this month “The emergency to pension schemes has been caused by Bank of England’s quantitative easing policy of buying bonds…I don’t see how it is reasonable to ask companies with pension schemes to fill a £1tn hole and put money into their businesses as well. It doesn’t add up.”

BoE officials say they recognize the problem, but Andrew Haldane, its chief economist, says the central bank’s top priority must be to stimulate the economy. “I sympathize with savers, but jobs must come first”.

I don’t think so, from what BoE and their colleagues are doing, it seems much other, like keeping the values of assets high and borrowing costs for the government low comes first.

Sir, again, for the umpteenth time, the Basel Committee, the Financial Stability Board and other frightened risk adverse bank nannies, have mandated stagnation.

When you allow banks to hold less capital when financing what’s perceived as safe than when financing the risky; banks earn higher expected risk adjusted returns on equity when financing the safe than when financing the risky; so you are de facto instructing the banks to stop financing the riskier future and keep to refinancing the safer past… something which guarantees stagnation… a failure to develop, progress or advance… something which guarantees lack of employment for the young and retirement hardships for the old.

I would prefer not to distort the allocation of bank credit but, if I had to, then I would try to ascertain that bank credit goes to where it could do the society the most good; in which case I would consider basing these on job creation ratings and environmental sustainability ratings and not on some useless credit ratings already cleared for by banks with the size of their exposures and interest rates.

PS. If you want more explanations on the statist bank regulations that are taking our Western society down here is a brief aide memoire.

PS. If you want to know whether I have any idea of what I am talking about here is a short summary of my early opinions on this since 1997.

@PerKurowski ©

Statism, by way of bank regulations, marches on! Thou shall not hold anything but the Infallible Sovereign’s debt

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth in Short View August 11 writes: “New rules slapped on the US money market fund industry… are set to come fully into effect in October. The changes have spurred a gradual investor exodus from the funds, and the conversion of ‘prime’ MMFs which invest into corporate debt into ones that invest only in Treasuries (which are less affected by the new regulations).”

So clearly those statists that furthered their agenda by way of bank regulations, like in 1988 when the Basel Accord decreed a risk weight of zero percent for the government and 100% for We the People, keep marching on unabated.

And since Wigglesworth also refers to the Libor “Lie-bor” rate manipulation, let me also remind you that no private sector manipulation ever, has produced even a fraction of the costs for the society at large, as has the Basel Committee's outrageous manipulation of the allocation of bank credit to the real economy.

@PerKurowski ©

In sovereign debt should not moral and ethical issues be more important than collective and pari passu clauses?

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth discusses bond legalese, like collective and pari passu clauses, and rightly concludes “paying attention to the legal differences is [especially] important when a borrower runs into a brick wall.” “Venezuelan bond small print piques investors’ interest” June 18.

But we citizens would also appreciate that lenders gave some minimum minimorum considerations to what the funds they loaned out were going to be used for, whether the loans were being correctly and transparently contracted, and of the quality of the managers of the proceeds, the governments.

In many cases, like that of Venezuela, if creditors had done so they could easily have concluded they were giving odious credits, and that the government was contracting odious borrowings; and that they better refrain from giving the loans, no matter how juicy the risk premiums.

In a world were legislation against acts of corruption exists it is surprising how little consideration “connoisseurs” give to the moral and ethical aspects of sovereign debt. Very high interest rate risk premiums, is the currency in which the corrupter and the corrupted too often conclude their dirty dealings.

For instance, in Venezuela, though there are serious scarcities of food and medicines, the government sells petrol domestically for basically nothing; and blocks humanitarian international arguing that to allow it would infringe their sovereign right to have exclusive responsibility for the welfare of citizens. And besides the market is well aware of that there are Venezuelans imprisoned for political reasons.

In such circumstances should not lending to Venezuela qualify as odious credit? Should that not also be qualified as part of odious government borrowings?

Should not citizens have a collective clause rights with which they can authorize or not the payment of odious credits and borrowings?

What should a due diligence process for bond issues which proceeds might help finance human rights violations include?

If a corporation suspect of drug trafficking made a bond issue, who would begin by revising the clauses of its legal documentation?

@PerKurowski ©