A “Council of Historical Advisers” should advice the Council of Economic Advisers, on the origins of bank crises

Sir, Gillian Tett discussing Afghanistan’ Gandamak writes about the importance of knowing where you come from to know where you would want to go. “History lessons would be good for the White House” September 3.

Indeed, and I sure hope the “Council of Historical Advisers” comes to fruition, since the Council of Economic Advisers, and the Basel Committee, sure need some history lessons about the origins of bank crises.

Currently the pillar of bank regulations, is the risk weighted capital requirements for banks; more perceived risk more capital – less risk less capital.

And there is absolutely nothing in history that points to a banking crisis ever having resulted from what was, ex ante, when incorporated in their balance sheets, perceived as risky.

These have only resulted from unexpected events, or from the accumulation of excessive financial exposures to something erroneously perceived as safe. In fact the safer something is perceived, the worse the unexpected consequences that could result. Motorcycles are correctly viewed as much riskier than cars… and therefore much more people die in car accidents than in motorcycle accidents.

To sum it up, the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, dangerously distort the allocation of bank credit to the real economy, for no good reason at all. 

@PerKurowski ©

Jason Furman, things are not starting to go right. With the current distortion of bank credit, that’s impossible

Sir, Gillian Tett quotes Jason Furman, chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisors in that a “Greek exit would be taking a risk with the global economy just when things are starting to go right” “America fears a European sequel to Lehman”, April 24. 

Where does he get that “starting to go right” from? While regulators allow banks to earn higher risk adjusted returns on equity on what is perceived safe than on what is perceived as risky, things simply cannot go right. 

But of course there could be a sequel to Lehman. That, while banks are made to finance too much what is perceived as safe, is guaranteed. Excessive exposures to what is ex ante perceived as safe but that ex post turns out to be risky, is precisely the stuff major bank crises are made off. 

But, following this line of argument, Greece will not cause it. Greece has been perceived as risky, for a sufficient long time, so as to pose a major threat.

PS. I assume of course that the equity banks are required to hold when lending to Greece has been increased… and is no longer zero J

@PerKurowski