Central banks, when targeting, should start by making sure they are targeting the correct target; and the last thing they should do, is to promote distortions in the allocation of bank credit.

Sir, Marie Owens Thomsen writes: “Today, governments tend to run only budget deficits, making them rather structural. This leads to ever-rising debt levels and poses a potential policy dilemma. Thanks to the blissfully low rate of inflation, it is possible to ignore this fact. But should inflation hypothetically shoot up, it would quickly become apparent. Central banks could find themselves unable to raise policy rates enough to combat price increases without causing a debt sustainability crisis at home.” “Central banks need to be less dogmatic on inflation targeting” May 8.

Scary stuff, but even more so when one considers the following:

First, that the targeting of inflation is based on an entirely subjective measure of inflation. Just as an example it is based on the cost of renting houses but not the price of houses.

Then second, the artificially imposed risk weighted bank capital requirements, which among other much favor “safe” sovereign debt over “risky” loans to entrepreneurs and SMEs, is distorting the allocation of bank credit to the real economy, and sends out the wrong interest rate signals. For instance had the EU authorities not assigned a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone sovereigns, even though these were getting indebted in a currency that de facto is not their domestic (printable) one, Greece would never have been able to build up the exposures to German and French banks that doomed it to a crisis.

@PerKurowski

What do we all have left to counter any major new round of debt-failures with?

Sir, Jonathan Wheatley reports that according to the Institute of International Finance “Total debt owed by households, governments, and financial and non-financial corporations were $247.2 tn at the end of March 2018 and, relative to gross domestic product, exceeded 318 per cent” “EM exposure Surging debt puts pressure on global financial system” July 12.

Emerging markets? What about all of us?

Households count on their income and worth of assets, basically houses, to pay back their debt… and their increased debt, anticipated demand, means they cannot help each other as much as they used to.

Non-financial corporates, which have become much more leveraged, count on business remaining healthy, though indebted households and governments will find it harder to keep up the demand they need.

Governments depend mostly on tax revenues, and these will depend on how it goes for households and non-financial corporations.

Financial corporates depend on deriving some profitability intermediating for the other three sectors, and on In God We Trust 

Looking at the harrowing figures three questions come to my mind.

The first, where would we all be if we in 2007-2008 had gone for the hard landing I suggested in 2006, instead of pushing the crisis can forward?

The second, where would our banks and all our debts be if banks had needed to hold for instance 10% in capital against all assets?

The third, WTF do we all have left to counter any major new round of debt-failures with?

@PerKurowski

The worst problem with the dangerously growing debt is what it has not financed

Sir, Pascal Blanque and Amin Rajan write: “for central banks, global debt is like the sword of Damocles — an ever-present danger. It stands at about 330 per cent of annual economic output, up from 225 per cent in 2008… No one knows all the cracks into which excess liquidity has seeped — or what risks are being stored up”, “Beware the butterfly: global economies are on borrowed time” January 7.

Sir, if central bankers are only now waking up to this fact, then you must agree with that we are in much bigger problems that we thought.

Central bankers, lacking in character and not wanting to live up to their own responsibilities, dared not do anything but to push the 2007/08 crisis cart down the road, with their QEs and low interest rates. For someone who argued back in 2006 the benefits of a hard landing, that is bad enough.

But it’s so much worse than that. Blanque and Rajan argue that “Debt means consumption brought forward while low rates mean the survival of zombie borrowers and companies… High debt is not intrinsically bad so long as it is used to fund investments that deliver profits or create financial assets worth more than the debt. Data on this score are hard to come by.”

And there lies the fundamental problem. Because of risk weighted capital requirements for banks, bank credit has been used to finance “safer” present consumption; to inflate values of mostly existing assets; and way too little to finance “riskier” future production. It amounts to having placed a reverse mortgage on our past and present economy, in order to extract all of its value now, not caring one iota about tomorrow, and much less about that holy social intergenerational contract Edmund Burke spoke about.

It is clear the experts Blanque and Rajan have yet not understood what happened as they write: “The origins of the current worries predate the 2008 crisis which was caused when lending standards went from responsible to reckless: the siphoning of money into dodgy ventures such as subprime mortgages, covenant-light loans or sovereign lending based on creative accounting.”

The truth is that without truly reckless regulatory standards, those which allowed banks to leverage over 62.5 time to 1 with securities rated by human fallible rating agencies AAA; and, at least in Europe, allowing banks to lend to a 0% risk weighted sovereign like Greece against no capital at all, nothing of the above would have happened.

What to do? In my mind, in order to extricate the world of this problem, we need first to rid us completely of the credit distorting risk weighted capital requirements; and second, to be able to manage the transition to for instance a 10% capital requirements against all assets, including sovereigns, without freezing the whole credit machinery, perhaps bank creditors would have to accept, in partial payment of their credits, negotiable non redeemable common fully voting shares issued by the banks. If that helps to bring back undistorted bank vitality, it might be the best shares to have ever.

PS. Blanque and Rajan reference “S&P 500 corporates… stashing cash reserves outside the US.” What cash? Treasurers have not stacked away cash under corporate mattresses. Those surpluses are all already invested in assets, of all sorts, and which could suffer losses just like any other assets.

@PerKurowski

Jockeying for position to currently advise Venezuela on its debt restructuring could have serious legal, or at least reputational consequences

Sir, Robin Wigglesworth, with respect to Venezuela’s debt writes: “Any restructuring will be a Herculean task, given US sanctions” “Debt restructuring battle brews over Venezuela” November 21.

It is not only the US sanctions. Since many, or probably most Venezuelan consider those debt origination in odious or at least totally non-transparent credits we have not the faintest trust in that negotiators helping the government to restructure is helping us.

So any negotiator now would have blacklisted himself, for those restructuring negotiations that can only begin in earnest when the Maduro government is gone.

Also I cannot understand that, for instance one of the prime renegotiation advisors you mention like the “mysterious art-loving Mexican billionaire called David Martinez”, can be so naïve so as to believe that the threat of US sanction to Americans will not be extended to anyone substituting for Americans.

In summary you do not advise governments that are violating basic human rights without the possibility of facing very serious consequences for that. As a minimum they should be aware that many of us Venezuelan will, when we can, try to recoup any odious restructuring fees paid to them… and keep them away forever from Venezuela

Personally I am much in favor of the Venezuelan Supreme Court of Justice in exile, requested by the Venezuelan National Assembly, initiates the first stage of any debt restructuring, namely classifying all those debts in bona-fide, dubious or odious. 

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/search?q=Venezuela+debt

@PerKurowski

How much will the fewer younger be willing to give up in order to help the larger number of older?

Sir, John Dizard argues that It is hard to have a tax cut-driven jobs boom for the ‘real Americans’ if there are fewer of them around” “Financial world’s promises impossible to meet within an ageing demographic” October 22.

Indeed, demographics will make all so much serious, but let us not assume things are going so as to be a rose garden without that factor.

The kicking the 2007-08 crisis can forward with QEs; the ultra low interest rates that makes it easier to take on debt and in some ways introduces economic laziness; getting equity out of homes like with reverse mortgages in order to spend; risk weight of 35% on financing residential houses and of 100% when lending to the riskier SMEs and entrepreneurs who have the best chances of building future and create jobs; a mindless 0% risk weight for so many sovereigns only based on that these can print money to repay… is driving the world towards a crisis not only because of the lack of young workers, but also because of excessive unpayable debts.

There will come a day when all those young living in the basements of their parents’ houses will say “Hey ma-and-pa, you go downstairs, now it is our turn to live upstairs”… and that is perhaps even the best case scenario. Things can get to be truly ugly (ättestupa)… except perhaps if we are able to put billion of robots to productive uses (like they are trying in Japan) and tax them and share out those revenues with a universal basic income.

I have always argued that the best pension plan that exists is having children and grandchildren that love you, and who are able to work in a workable economy. Thank God I got the first… but I am beginning to seriously doubt achieving the second. 

@PerKurowski

So now Brussels's technocrats want to issue AAA rated securities backed with European subprime sovereigns? When will they ever learn?

With “subprime sovereigns” I do not intent to classify any sovereign in a derogatory way. I use the term strictly with reference to the fact that for the sovereigns’ creditors being able to collect their credits, some sovereigns seem, are, safer than others.

Sir, Jim Brunsden a Guy Chazan write: “Brussels has called for sovereign debt from across the eurozone to be bundled into a financial instrument and sold to investors as part of a plan aimed at strengthening the single currency area… the move would require regulatory changes to make the securities attractive. One idea would be to grant the bonds the same “zero-risk weighting” that applies to government debt in the EU, which would exempt them [banks] from capital requirements.”... “We see this in the form of preferential regulatory treatment.” “Brussels seeks new asset class of eurozone sovereign debt” June 1.

Amazing! The European Commission has not woken up to the fact that “preferential regulatory treatment” distorts the allocation of bank credit to the real economy, which is one of the prime reasons Europe got into trouble and finds it so hard to grow out of it.

Had banks needed to hold as much capital when lending to sovereigns than when lending to for instance “risky” SMEs and entrepreneurs, Greece would never ever, no matter how much it might have cheated with information, have been able to accumulate such massive amount of sovereign debt.

Were banks required to hold as much capital when lending to sovereigns than when lending to for instance “risky” SMEs and entrepreneurs, then the latter would have found it easier to satisfy their credit needs, and European growth and employment would be higher and foremost much sturdier.

When will the hubris filled obviously statist technocrats in Brussels ever learn? Europe, get rid of them!

“No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it” Albert Einstein.

@PerKurowski

If we want debt to earn the credit it merits, we need to get rid of current bank regulators.

Sir, I refer to Nigel Dodd’s, a professor at LSE, “Cast aside the moral judgment and give debt the credit it deserves”, November 1.

Unfortunately it seems that professor Dodd has not heard about the arguments against odious and stupid bank regulatory discrimination based on perceived credit risks. Had he done so, I believe his article would have taken a different form.

I say this, especially when reading his conclusion: “Credit is morally neutral. As an institution, it is neither good nor bad; and it is a grievous error to confuse creditworthiness with moral probity. Credit should be available to those who need it most. The price should be reasonable, and it should entail neither stigma nor penury.”

Indeed, professor Dodd, but one of the most important reasons for why this is not so, is the bank regulations that have been in place for about three decades; most especially since Basel II was approved in June 2004.

Those regulations order the banks to hold much more equity when lending to those perceived as “safe” than when lending to those perceived as “risky”; which of course allows banks to earn much higher risk-adjusted returns on equity when lending to the safe, than when lending to the risky.

And that means that regulators, on their own, without our approval, decided that bank credit should primarily be available to what from a credit risk point of view was perceived as “safe”, like financing house purchases, or lending to “the infallible sovereigns” or to the members of the AAAristocracy.

And which also means that anyone perceived as “risky”, would have to pay even more risk premiums, or have even less access to bank credit.

And that means denying fair access to bank credit to those we, who depend the most on the real economy, most need and want should have fair access to it, like the medium and small businesses, the entrepreneurs and the start-ups.

If we want debt to get the credit it deserves, we need to get rid of these regulators.

Too well tuned?

Sir, John Plender in “It’s time to rewrite fashionable finance ideas”, May 4, refers to the need for some redundancy in the system so as to be able to respond better to unforeseen events. Below is how I addressed that issue in my Voice and Noise of 2006.

Too well tuned?: Martial arts legend Bruce Lee, whom many people regarded as immortal, died at the age of only 32 of a cerebral edema, or brain swelling, after taking some sort of aspirin. I have not the faintest idea whether that pill actually had anything to do with his death but I have frequently used (or misused) this sad death as an example of how an organism could be in such a highly tuned and perfect condition that it could not resist a small external shock. And I used this metaphor to explain why companies nowadays, pressured by the stock market’s expectations for the next quarterly results; the latest theories in corporate finance as to how squeeze out the last drop in results; and, perhaps, even some bit of creative accounting, might be so well-tuned (no little reserve fat left) that they would not be able to withstand any minor recession. (Whenever I expose this theory, I can see in my wife’s eyes that she believes this is just my preparing an excuse for my growing—ok, grown—midline.)

And US, get yourselves some more helpers too!

Sir Ricardo Hausmann tells the US “Stop behaving as whiner of first resort”, January 31; do not give “the US consumer more rope with which to hang himself”. Hear hear!

But as Hausmann says not only should the US not bet all on finding a dream-adjustment like reducing the over-consumption in the US “in a way that does not hurt longer term growth” by looking at what others (China) could do for it; it also needs “to keep on growing”.

The US has to be careful that the reduction of consumption does not diminish its size, since it is not only a matter of getting back into equilibrium; it is also about being able to take care of the outstanding stock of debt. And so “Stop behaving as a whiner and get yourself some 40 million more working immigrants to help you out!” could also be a valid message.

I ask why industrial China should be able to use rural China for their growth and not North America Central America.

Should not Higher Education be more of a joint venture?

Sir, hearing so many young professionals in the USA describing their problems with debts they incurred while studying, I guess that soon some of them could be suing their Alma Maters for misrepresentation or plain failure in delivering the services offered.

Perhaps the incentive structure of the education system needs to be revised so that at least some of the higher education providers offer to collect a part of their fees through a profit participation scheme, like for instance by receiving a small percentage of the student’s future earned gross income that is above the level that the student could have been estimated to earn without further education, during his first 20 years of work.

How are then the universities going to pay for their professors now? Easy, that is what the financial markets are for. These participations in the future of our youngsters could be securitized and sold in the markets, perhaps even as a good investment for a professor’s retirement fund… of course, that is if the professor delivers on his promises.

For a university to show a willingness to invest in their own students, because they are sure of what they are giving them, might be a better marketing tool than outright grants and “we invest our money in your future” is my slogan. Also, for students, the question of what university offers to invests the most present dollars against the smallest percentage of the expected future earnings... should rank among the first when selecting an Alma Mater into which to invest their own future.