Venezuela’s undernourished children urgently need a huge public debt into oil extraction conversion plan

Sir, Colby Smith and Robin Wigglesworth report that Venezuela’s “opposition government plans to hold all its foreign creditors to the same terms no matter the kind of debt held, which public entity issued it, and whether or not the creditor had previously gone to a courthouse and received a judgment.” But also “Claims connected to the alleged corruption of the Chávez or Maduro regimes will be excluded” as will be those presenting “pricing inconsistencies or pending arbitration claims [until] would investigated further” “Venezuela’s opposition sets out debt restructuring plans” July 4, 2019.

On that I agree, 100%. And Venezuela presents a golden opportunity for the citizens of the world, to be able to reach a clear definition on what should be considered odious credits, and to agree on their consequences.

But, what I do not see yet, is the real understanding that Venezuela’s most urgent problem is not debt restructuring, it is that its people are dying and foremost that its young are growing up undernourished.

Let’s face it; no matter how much humanitarian aid can come to Venezuela, the problems with lack of food, medicines and basic day to day needs will not be solved, until sufficient oil extraction generates sufficient oil revenues. And of course until sufficient oil extraction generates sufficient oil revenues, neither will there be enough money to pay off creditors.

So all my gut instincts, acquired by having actively and frequently participated in large debt restructurings in the private sector, but also by having promoted and completed projects of Venezuelan public debt to equity conversions into industry and tourism projects, tells me the following:

Venezuela needs to sit down with its creditors, today, and come up with a plan of how to convince qualified oil extractors to put their money into Venezuela and begin extracting oil as fast as possible. Of course for that to happen there would have to be a reasonable agreement on how to share the net oil revenues between oil extractors, creditors and the Venezuelan citizens.

I do not mention the Venezuelan government since I am convinced that the only way we Venezuelans can end up living in a nation, and not in somebody else’s business, is to have our government work exclusively with what we citizens provide it with by means of taxes. And because I have learned to utterly dislike redistribution profiteers, of all sorts.

That said of course I understand the need for some type of transition agreement, like a period in which more and more of those net oil and other natural resource revenues are turned over by the government to citizens. Like reaching 100% of it in ten years.

Sir, here's a tweet I have been sending out now and again for about two years: “So Venezuelans can eat quickly, hand over Pdvsa (and Citgo) to Venezuela’s creditors quickly, to see if they put all that junk to work quickly, to see if they collect something quickly, and pay us Venezuelans, not the bandits, our oil royalties quickly.

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-simple-but-complex-question-from.html”

PS. Instead of oil production I prefer to use the term oil extraction, since I feel that to be more respectful and grateful to that hand of the providence that placed oil under Venezuelan land.

PS. “Living in somebody else’s business” was how a woman from a Uganda described to me in 2013, her and our case.

https://theoilcurse.blogspot.com/2013/04/we-oil-cursed-citizens-we-do-not-live.html

@PerKurowski

To stand a real chance, Venezuela needs a solution that inspires at least a million of its emigrants, to immediately return to their homeland.

Sir, Ricardo Hausmann writes that for Venezuela “there is no road to recovery without the freedoms that underpin the market mechanism and without international financial assistance to kick-start imports and output. That will only happen after Mr Maduro leaves and this regime ends” “Maduro will not reverse an unprecedented economic collapse” August 24.

Indeed, but since so many of our landsmen are dying because of hunger and medicines, and the country is losing so much of its educated youth and that might find opportunities in other nations and never return, we need something much faster, much more drastic.

Hausmann states “by over-borrowing during the [oil] boom years: at over 600 per cent, Venezuela has the largest foreign public debt to export ratio in the world." If we include all the accounts payable hanging around it could even be much worse than that. 

My proposal is to capitalize on our creditors weaknesses. After excluding all those who clearly have no legal enforceable claims, and there are many of them, I would call all Venezuela’s creditors and tell them:

“Here, take all Venezuela’s oil extraction and refinery assets. Put these to work as fast as you can, so you have a chance to collect something of your credits, as fast as you can; and pay out all royalties that will be due for any oil extracted, directly, in equal parts, to all Venezuelans living in Venezuela, as fast as these can be deposited in their respective debit cards.

Then the Venezuelans would, with that money demand what they most want and need, and the market forces, in a country so blessed with so many other resources than oil, and freed from the interference of its odious redistribution profiteers, would respond, almost instantaneously.

A dream? Perhaps, but also the last thing I want for my country is a bailout a la Greece, one that leaves all our youth indebted forever.

And who knows, perhaps then even Ricardo Hausmann would leave Harvard Kennedy School and return home. I sure would!

http://theoilcurse.blogspot.com

http://unsustainabledebtsustainability.blogspot.com

http://petropolitan.blogspot.com

@PerKurowski

Should/will the holders of Venezuela’s “Hunger Bonds” have priority over the hungry?

Sir, John Dizard, in reference to the current financial difficulties of the state of Illinois points out that Judge Joan Lefkow of the Federal District Court in Chicago made the point of “Bondholders do not have priority over welfare recipients”. That according to a muni portfolio manager would signify that the judge “is starting the process of reprioritizing the primacy of debt service under state law and the state constitution.” “Illinois’ journey to junk credit is sending shockwaves through the muni industry” June 17.

Let me apply that to Venezuela. Would that judge order that those many Venezuelans, including children, who die because of lack of food and medicines would have the same pari-passu rights as the holders of what Ricardo Hausmann has named “Hunger Bonds”?

It really does not sound so farfetched, or unjust, considering that the holders of those “Hunger Bonds” must be, as reflected in the risk premiums, perfectly aware of the tragedies in Venezuela resulting from widespread corruption and violations of human rights, including the current violent repression of those demonstrating against the government.

Sir, many have argued that the world urgently needs a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism, SDRM. I agree but for more than a decade I have held that must start by defining clearly what credits are clearly bona-fide, doubtful or plain odious.

Dizard writes: “One of the key questions to ask about distressed sovereign credits is whether the paper is owned by locals. Even during Nigeria’s troubles in the 1970s and 1980s, the central bank continued to pay its promissory notes, even as its bank loans went into default. Nigerian officials owned some of the notes.”

Clearly in a case like Venezuela the Venezuelans should have a right to know exactly who were the financiers of their malign regime, and of how they came into holding these credits.

The “need” for holding Venezuelan paper so as to conform to some Emerging Market portfolios might have entrapped some investment funds. In such cases no much shame falls on them but of course they should voluntary submit their investments to a debt to food and medicines conversion program, and the product donated to the poor.

Personally I am trying to motivate a constitutional reform in Venezuela that would assign the property of its natural resources directly to the citizens. I wonder what judges would then authorize the embargo of a tanker that carried oil to be exchanged for food and medicines for the hungry owners of the oil.

I do that not for the purpose of getting away from onerous financial commitments but for the much more important mission of not having future Venezuelan governments to have a chance to do, ever again, what this XXI Century Socialistic revolution has done to my homeland.

Whether this would make it “more difficult and expensive to sell bonds if the state wants to fund pension obligations or fix its highways” is of little or no concern to me. In fact, the more I look around in the world and read of unfunded pension obligations that might be satisfied with debt to be paid by future generations… those limitations sounds like great news.

@PerKurowski

Redistribution profiteers who committed economic crimes against humanity sequestered Venezuela

Sir, I refer to Ricardo Hausmann’s sadly true “It could be too late to avoid catastrophe in Venezuela” February 4.

These days when so much is said about fighting inequality, Venezuela is a tragic example of what happens when a country falls into the hands of shameless redistribution profiteers. All countries need to develop more transparent government accounts that allows us them to measure the real costs of redistributing wealth.

For instance in the case of Venezuela the fact that the prices of petrol (gas) have not increased once since Chavez came to power 17 years ago has signified that just in free petrol the country has over the last years given away more than in all their other social programs put together… if that is not an economic crime against humanity (and environment) what is. I have tried to denounce it to the Organization of American States but they are more interested in conventional and traditional crimes against humanities.

Over the last 15 years the poor of Venezuela might not have received even 10 percent of the oil wealth that was redistributed… which would indicate a redistribution commission of 90 percent.

Clearly if other methods like direct oil revenue sharing with citizens had been used, the 10-90% figures here could have been 98-2%. And of course, had the oil revenues belonged to the citizens, the government could not have “used it to quadruple the foreign debt.”

Set into this context it is obvious that all should closely study experiments like Finland’s substituting with a basic monthly income for all the bureaucrats’ management of benefits.

PS. One of the most sad events in my lifetime has been when the US did not follow through on the idea of promoting oil revenue sharing in Iraq. Had it done so the whole middle east, and of course Venezuela, if following the example, could have been facing much better realities.

@PerKurowski ©

Former Executive Director at the World Bank, for Venezuela, 2002-04

We citizens need an international tribunal where we can have our odious sovereign debts recognized as odious credits.

Sir I refer to Ricardo Hausmann’s “Venezuela’s economic collapse owes a debt to China” January 21. It reflects much of what I have been writing for years as a columnist in Venezuela… before I was censured in July 2014

Hausmann writes: “the debt was never authorised by the Venezuelan parliament due to the specious argument that it was not debt, but “finance”, because it was not to be paid in dollars but in oil. As a consequence, spending the money was never part of the national budget, thus escaping all forms of control and bypassing oil-revenue sharing rules, which would have transferred part of the income to opposition state and local governments.”

He is absolutely right but, it is even worse than that, since Venezuela’s Constitution explicitly prohibits encumbering not extracted oil that way.

And so now the real question is: In the future, when these odious credits from China are declared odious debts not to be paid, how much is the rest of the world going to support us Venezuelans?

Should there not exist an international tribunal were citizens can go and have their grievances on odious debts be recognized as odious credits? I mean we could be talking about much more than China.

Are those who lend to a morally bankrupt government not just as morally bankrupt themselves

Sir, FastFT reports “Venezuela bonds yields are shooting higher” September 11.

It refers to a recent article by Ricardo Haussman’s and Miguel Angel Santos’ that said: “The fact that [the government] has chosen to default on 30 m Venezuelans, rather than on Wall Street, is not a sign of its moral rectitude. It is a signal of moral bankruptcy”.

And FastFT states “Investors are clearly little concerned”… something which is quite ok with me.

Most investors in Venezuelan debt, perhaps all, have for a very long time been perfectly aware that things in Venezuela were not as they should be, but they have decided to look away, because of the high risk premiums offered. And so as I see it, they are just as moral bankrupt.

And I repeat questions I have often made: Would it be right to buy bonds to finance the building of concentration camps... if the price, the risk premium, is right? Where do you draw the line on what is morally admissive lending? Where do you draw the line on what kind of intermediation fine reputable investment banks can do before they become morally repulsive?

The way I see it, the world, at least us citizens, need good governance ratings and ethic-ratings, much more than what it needs credit ratings

If Venezuela defaults, two have tangoed, an incompetent government and highly irresponsible lenders.

Sir, I refer to John Paul Rathbone’s “Call for default underscores Venezuelan incompetence” September 8.

In it Rathbone analyses Ricardo Hausmann’s and Miguel Angel Santos’ recent “Should Venezuela default?” where they so correctly argue that Venezuela’s government, though being current on its debt service, has already de facto defaulted in so many ways on “its people”, something which signals a “moral bankruptcy”.

Venezuela’s government has clearly shown absolute incompetence, the highest disdain for Venezuela’s constitution and for instance, according to Human Right Watch, has also committed crimes against humanity. And facts like gasoline-petrol being given away at US$ 1 cent per gallon, 278 times less than the price of milk… makes all of the above as evident as can be.

But, let it us be very clear, all equally points to highly irresponsible lenders who do not care one iota, as long as the price, the risk-premiums, are right.

Rathbone reminds us that “Venezuelan bond yield on average 12.3 percentage points more than US treasury”. Let us then suppose a bond issue yielding 20% that is going to finance the building of some concentration camps. Where do you draw the line on what is morally admissive lending? Where do you draw the line on what kind of intermediation fine reputable investment banks can do before they become morally repulsive?

As I have been arguing for some time, anyone investing in a bond that (when rates are as low as the current) pay for instance 4% more than the risk free rate, should know he is buying morally questionable pre-defaulted bonds… and that he must renounce to the possibility of having the cake and eat it too, meaning aspiring to get 100% of risk premiums and 100% of principal.

As a Venezuelan citizen let me also remind all that currently the government receives directly 97 percent of all the nation’s exports and, while so, as I see it, has no right to take on any debt whatsoever.

PS. During the Venezuelan default in the 80s I asked a foreign banker “How come you lent especially much to this entity that is emblematic of all non-transparency, corruption and mismanagement in Venezuela?” His answer was: “At the end of the day it is all going to be government debt, and this entity pays the highest interest rates”. I felt like slapping his face, I wish I had!

The safe-haven must recycle its waters.

Sir you write of the need to “Reopen the taps of global finance” May 1, but that must surely be the responsibility of the current borrower of last resort, the USA.

Ricardo Hausmann, during the spring meetings of the World Bank, at a conference titled “Latin America and the Global Crisis: Towards a Rapid Regional Recovery” argued that the US should take on debt and relend to the world. Hausmann, coming from an oil rich country must have remembered that this was exactly what the oil countries did during the 1974-79 oil bonanza when foreign bankers virtually forced credits on them… and the oil exporting countries recycled and imported and recycled and imported... until.

But is this politically viable? Perhaps not, but even so there are major troubles brewing down the line.

First the US, as the safe-haven par excellence, cannot expect to crowd out the rest of the world from the financial markets, for a lengthier period, without its own waters becoming stale or even having the rest of the world starting to think in terms of sabotaging that safe-haven.

Second if the US, in order to reflate its own economy and which might also help to stop the world from deflating too much, for a while, does so by investing only in its own back-yard, then the returns from those overcrowded back-yards will not be sufficient to repay what will be owed, and so the US taxpayer will start to seriously object having to become the taxpayer of last resort…and with that, again, waive bye, bye to the sweet dollar safe-haven.

Let us not forget that in truth the dollar bill should have imprinted on it “In the American Tax Payer We Trust” but that the US Mint, more pragmatic, more marketing minded and much wiser preferred the much more fundamental “In God We Trust”.

Is now the US public sector falling for teaser rates?

Sir Ricardo Hausmann writes that “The crisis gives America new financial power” December 16, and though there is no doubt that is true, for the time being, we must also be clear that these powers derive mostly from the fact that the world is desperately seeking for a safe haven in this financial turmoil. To this effect the US faces now the extremely difficult balancing act of trying to remain a safe haven while allowing access to all. Let us not forget that the safest of havens can turn into a death-trap if overcrowded.

In this respect I am concerned that too little consideration is given to the maturity profile of the US debt since one would preferably like to minimize the risk of all wanting to leave simultaneously. When last week I ask a prominent US lady economist about this she mentioned that for her this was not of a major problem since the US debt markets are very deep and liquid. She might be right but, unfortunately, we have lately had enough of deep and liquid markets drying up overnight.

As I see it, the US should be issuing a very sizable portion of long term debt, 30 years so as to make sure that many anchor deep inside the haven. Instead we hear about the issuance of short term treasury paper to buy up long term bonds, so as to bring down the long term rates in order to help the mortgage sector. After such a recent mishap with the teaser rates to the mortgage sector… is now the US public sector falling for these?

And US, get yourselves some more helpers too!

Sir Ricardo Hausmann tells the US “Stop behaving as whiner of first resort”, January 31; do not give “the US consumer more rope with which to hang himself”. Hear hear!

But as Hausmann says not only should the US not bet all on finding a dream-adjustment like reducing the over-consumption in the US “in a way that does not hurt longer term growth” by looking at what others (China) could do for it; it also needs “to keep on growing”.

The US has to be careful that the reduction of consumption does not diminish its size, since it is not only a matter of getting back into equilibrium; it is also about being able to take care of the outstanding stock of debt. And so “Stop behaving as a whiner and get yourself some 40 million more working immigrants to help you out!” could also be a valid message.

I ask why industrial China should be able to use rural China for their growth and not North America Central America.

What we need is not to cap the oil prices but to give them a decent floor

Sir the real oil crisis occurred in 1998 when the price of barrel fell under $10 per barrel and the Economist wrote in "The next shock?" March 1999, that "in today's condition the price would head down towards $5", and this is what primarily explains the current high prices of oil. Had the consumer countries acknowledged the growth in demand that for instance China would bring to the market (IEA did not say a word about it for years) and expressed their willingness to enter into those reasonable long term contracts that would have allowed producing countries to make the massive investments needed we would most probably have faced a completely different energy outlook.

From this perspective Ricardo Hausmann "Biofuels can match oil production" November 7, and that has 95 countries investing billions of billions in cultivating 700m of acres just in order to cap the price setting capacity of OPEC seems to say the least an astonishing proposition. The question to ask Hausmann is what he will do with those 700m acres when oil having been at last given such a real price floor really starts the pumps. Why don't you give OPEC a price floor without having to go into the environmental and economic nightmare of cultivating 700m of acres that will have to be subsidized in the future and that we pray will not include the Amazon?