Jesus said, “Put out in the deep”. Regulators tell banks “Fish in shallow waters… preferably from the shore”

Sir, Martin Wolf writes, “Mr Trump’s narrowly transactional approach, driven by ignorance and resentment, risks disaster” “Donald Trump’s war on the liberal world order” July 3.

I agree there is room for serious concern with respect to what President Trump might do but, for the time being, for the umpteenth time, much more than what he might be sabotaging the liberal world order, bank regulators already did.

This Sunday, in the Swedish church in New York, they read us how Jesus invited the Apostles to "put out into the deep" for a catch: "Duc in altum" (Lk 5:4). "When they had done this, they caught a great number of fish" (Lk 5:6).

With their risk weighted capital requirements for banks, more perceived risk, more capital – less perceived risk, less capital, the regulators de facto told our banks to fish in shallow waters… preferably from the shore.

To assign a 20% risk weight to a corporation rated AAA to AA, and 100% to an unrated corporation 100%, and "generously" permitting the possibility of risk weighing small entrepreneurs with only 75%, has absolutely nothing to do with a liberal world order.

Moreover to assign a 0% risk weight to sovereigns and one of 100% to citizens, reads just like a communist world order.

“Armoured by ignorance”? Indeed, those regulations guarantee excessive exposures to what is especially dangerous as it is perceived, decreed or concocted as safe; against especially little capital… in other words it dooms our banks to especially severe crises.

Good job Basel Committee!

@PerKurowski

The financial-elite’s reluctance to ask bank regulators for clear explanations, seriously threatens the west’s liberal democracy and global order

Sir, Martin Wolf asks and answers: “What has created sharp (and usually unexpected) slowdowns? The answers have been financial crises, inflation shocks and wars” “The world economy hums as politics sour” January 10.

Indeed, but currently our economies are also suffering a slow but steady state slowdown as a consequence of the insane risk weighted capital requirements for banks, which were created in the name of making banks more stable. It all boils down to the following:

If a “safe” AAA rated offered a correct risk adjusted net interest margin to a bank, a loan to it could, according to the Basel Committee’s Basel II of 2002, be leveraged 62.5 times but, if that correct risk adjusted net interest margin was offered by a “risky” unrated entrepreneur or an SME, then a loan to these could only be leveraged 12.5 times.

As a direct result bank credit has been used to finance “safer” present consumption; to inflate values of mostly existing assets; and way too little to finance “riskier” future production.

In summary it amounts to having placed a reverse mortgage on our past and present economy, in order to extract all of its value now, not caring one iota about tomorrow, and much less about that holy social intergenerational contract Edmund Burke spoke about.

But Wolf could argue that this is evidently not true because: “Yet the world economy is humming, at least by the standards of the past decade. According to consensus forecasts, optimism about prospects for this year’s growth has improved substantially for the US, eurozone, Japan and Russia”

Sir, it’s all a debt financed economic growth. Like a family having a great Christmas by racking up debt on their credit cards. How much of the enormous recent growth of debt everywhere has gone to finance future builders like entrepreneurs and SMEs? The answer is surely a totally insignificant fraction.

Wolf here anew identifies threats: “The election of Donald Trump, a bellicose nationalist with limited commitment to the norms of liberal democracy, threatens to shatter the coherence of the west. Authoritarianism is resurgent and confidence in democratic institutions in decline almost everywhere.”

Sir, sincerely, what is all that compared to the fact that the world’s financial elites, either because it is not in their interests, or because lacking self confidence they are afraid they might have overlooked something, do not have the gut to firmly ask regulators: “Why do you want banks to hold more capital against what has been made innocous by being perceived risky, than against what is dangerous because it is perceived safe?”, and not accepting any flimsy nonsensical answer veiled in sophisticated voodoo technicalities.

Martin Wolf has moderated numerous important conferences on financial regulations, but not one has he dared to ask that simple question. Could it just be because he is scared he would then not be invited again as a moderator? Or is it that he just doesn’t get it.

And Sir, you have really not been living up to your motto either. Shame on you!

PS. And all that risk adverse regulations for nothing, since, as I have told Wolf and FT time after time, major bank crisis, like that of 2007/08, never ever result from excessive exposures to what is ex ante perceived as risky.

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2016/04/here-are-17-reasons-for-why-i-believe.html

@PerKurowski

In terms of causing the undoing of the west’s liberal democracy and global order, Trump (until now) is nothing compared to the Basel Committee

Sir, Martin Wolf holds that: “political developments have fractured the west as an ideologically coherent entity” “Global disorder and the fate of the west”, January 3.

I argue that much more than recent political developments the west, as we knew it, at least as I thought of it, was fractured in 1988 when regulators, with the Basel Accord, came up with risk weighted capital requirements for banks.

The following were Basel II’s capital requirements for banks on exposures to sovereigns according to their credit ratings: AAA to AA = 0%; A+ to A = 1.6%; BBB+ to BBB- = 4%; BB+ to B- = 8%; Below B- = 12%; Unrated = 8%.

What have that regulation to do with “A liberal democracy [where] the participants recognise the legitimacy of other participants common…[and] rests on a neutral rule of law”?

That someone like Walter Wriston could argue, "Countries don't go bankrupt," does not mean that some sovereigns have the right to declare themselves infallible. That was never part of any (recent) global order… nor was that those citizens who perceived as safe were already so more favored than those perceived as risky when accessing bank credit, would gain additional advantages by generating lower capital requirements for banks.

The development of the west like all development does required a lot of risk-taking. The day regulators layered on their purposeless risk aversion on top of already risk adverse banks… they doomed the west to a standstill, a “relative decline”, which, with time, will turn into a fall unless we can stop that dangerous nonsense. God make us daring!

Sir, what Trump, until now at least, might be doing to cause the undoing of the west’s global order is chicken shit when compared to what the Basel Committee has done. Martin Wolf does not think so because he considers it the duty of bankers to do what is right and ignore the incentives they are given to provide a high risk-adjusted return on equity to their shareholders.

And talking about populism, is not “We have risk weighted the banks’ capital for you so that you can now sleep calm” pure outrageous technocratic populism?

@PerKurowski

Bank regulators, imposing irresponsible insane rules, are prime destroyers of the rational liberal rules-based world order

Sir, Martin Sandbu writes of “opponents of the liberal, rules-based world order built up over 70 years” and that “The anti-liberal front’s undisputed leader, is the US under President Trump”, “The battles of ideology for our age”, December 27.

Sir, forget it, whatever President Trump might have done until now with respect to breaking down a rules-based world order, is nothing when compared to the damage bank regulators have done when trying to impose their own petit committee concocted regulatory rules on the world.

What they did, namely to allow banks to leverage more with assets perceived as safe than with assets perceived as risky; something which allows banks to earn higher risk adjusted returns on equity on assets perceived as safe, is something absolutely irresponsibly insane.

First, because that distorts the allocation of bank credit with serious consequences for the real economy, like favoring “safe” financing of houses over “risky” financing of “risky” entrepreneurs; which results in many basements for the young to live with their parents but few jobs for them to afford their own upstairs.

Second, by decreeing the risk-weight of the sovereign to be 0%, while that of the citizens on which that sovereign depends were weighted 100%, they effectively, 1988, one year before the fall of the Berlin wall, introduced through the backdoor, a mechanism to provide the financing to sustain (for some time) runaway statism.

Third, because since major bank crisis never ever result from excessive exposures to what was ex ante perceived as risky, it all serves absolutely no stability purpose at all.

Sir, if the “liberal internationalist camp working to defend a multilateral system of collaborative rules-based governance for economic openness to mutual advantage” is to go anywhere, that must begin by forcing bank regulators to satisfactorily respond the very straightforward question of: Why do you require banks to hold more capital against what has been made innocous by being perceived as risky than against what’s made dangerous by being perceived as safe?

Sandbu correctly argues: “In a global battle of ideas, liberals must show urgently that the existing order can be made to work for everyone”. But, injecting quantitative easing liquidity and low interest assistance, while such distorting regulations are in place, guarantees these will not be made to work for everyone, but only for those already in possession of safe assets, like the parents’ houses.

@PerKurowski

No one saw how the liberal/free-market 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall was pitted against the statist 1988 Basel Accord

Sir, ‘end of history’ Francis Fukuyama, when referring among other to that “systems designed by elites — liberalised financial markets” writes: “Today, the greatest challenge to liberal democracy comes not so much from overtly authoritarian powers such as China, as from within” “US against the world? Trump’s America and the new global order”, November 12.

If Fukuyama, like most other discussing the post 1989 world had taken notice of the 1988 Basel Accord, their conclusions would have been quite different. As a minimum they would not be referencing a liberal world order.

That is because the introduction of risk-weighted capital requirements for banks, which set a risk weight of 0% for the sovereign and 100% for the We the (risky) people, has obviously nothing to do with a liberal order, and much more to do with runaway statism.

Sir, the so often mentioned and disavowed neoliberalism is simple froth on the surface. Pure and unabridged statism is the real undercurrent that guides our economies.

If only researchers, for instances at the IMF, had researched what those bank regulations have signified to lower the interests on public debt, and to make it harder for SMEs and entrepreneurs to access bank credit, our current financial policies, and consequently our economies, would have looked quite different.

@PerKurowski