Should we tax robots low so they work for us humans, or high so that we humans remain competitive?

Rana Foroohar references “a recent report into the US labour market conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute found that… the biggest reason for the declining labour share, according to the study, is that supercycles in areas such as commodities and real estate have made those sectors, which favour capital over labour, a larger part of the overall economy”, “The silver lining for labour markets”, July 1.

“Do we have a supercycles that favour capital over labour”? At least with respect to real estate, especially houses, the “supercycle” we have is caused by bank regulators much favoring credit to what’s perceived as safe over credit to what’s perceived as risky, without one iota of importance assigned to the need of allocating credit efficiently to the real economy.

Then Foroohar refers to the problem: “shifting labour market dynamics will sharpen the political divides that already exist. Many “left behind” cities are home to more Hispanics and African Americans. Job categories that will be automated fastest are entry-level positions typically done by the young. Meanwhile, the over-50s are at the highest risk of job loss from declining skills”. As “The solution” Foroohar writes; “shift policy to support human capital investment, just as we do other types of capital investment”

Sir, unfortunately it is so much more complicated than that. Just the problems with student debts we currently hear about, evidences that we might not really know about how “to support human capital investments”.

Before social order breaks down, we need to start considering the need to generate decent and worthy unemployments, creating an unconditional universal basic income that serves somehow as a floor and decide what to do with AI and robots. Should we tax these low enough so that they do as much jobs as possible for us humans, or should we tax them high enough for us humans to remain competitive for the jobs they do?

PS. On “a mere 25 cities and regions could account for 60 per cent of US job growth by 2030”, may I venture those cities will not include those with the largest unfunded social benefit plans.

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2007/01/should-not-higher-education-be-more-of.html

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2012/04/we-need-worthy-and-decent-unemployments.html

http://myubi.blogspot.com/2017/01/my-universal-basic-income.html

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/02/here-some-disorderly-lose-cannon.html

@PerKurowski

If universities and professors had in payment to take a stake in their student’s future, you can bet students’ merits would mean more than parents’ wallets.

Sarah O’Connor writes: “Those in the top 1 per cent of the income distribution complain that the growing wealth of the “0.1 per cent” has priced their children out of the sort of private education and housing that they themselves enjoyed.”“We must stop fighting over scarce educational spoils” March 27.

They are wrong! All the income of the growing wealthy “0.1 per cent”, is immediately returned to the real economy, when they buy a lot of assets, like yachts, and services, like yacht crews, which are all really not of much real interest, or use, to the 99.9 per cent rest of the economy.

And if there is anything that really has helped price out private education and housing, that’s the excessive availability of financing. For instance if the risk weights for the bank capital requirements when financing residential mortgages, 35%, were the same as when financing an unrated entrepreneurs, 100%, houses would be more homes than investment assets, and people would have more jobs with which service mortgages or pay utilities.

But that truth does not stop polarization and redistribution profiteers from stoking the envy levels in the society, especially when it can often be done on social media in an anonymous way, and at zero marginal costs.

Now if you really want less discrimination against those who poor might use education better, align the incentives better, and don’t let universities and professors collect all upfront.

@PerKurowski

We need student debt service data, for each university, so as to allow the market to help correct some education failures.

Sir, Dennis Gerson, in reference to a recent article by Sheila Bair on student debts writes: “What she fails to address is the repayment of the income share agreements by college graduates earning the minimum wage, service industry minimum wage plus tips, or those who fail to graduate from college. A substantial portion of student debt and defaulted debt falls into these categories.” “US universities need to fix cost problem they created”

For a starter if university students end up earning too little or do not graduate, then that could be as much or more the failure of the university than the student’s. By just putting out information of each university indicating the respective overall default rate of their students, the market would help to correct much of what is going on... not all.

PS. Higher education should be much more of a joint venture.

@PerKurowski

If you want real profound gender diversity at company boards, think of nominating housemothers

Sir, Daniel Thomas discusses the issue of having more women on corporate boards “Shareholders can do more to bring about boardroom diversity”, June 2.

More than a decade ago, as an Executive Director at the World Bank, I told my colleagues “We all have, more or less, quite similar backgrounds. If we were by means of a lottery substitute a plumber and a nurse, for two of us directors at the board, I am sure we would have a much wiser board”. I do not remember what my colleagues replied… or if they did.

Now, hearing the currently so frequent demand for more gender diversification, I feel the same. Having women educated similarly to the men they are to substitute for, brings much less diversity into the boardroom than what could be expected. 

If you want deeper meaning gender diversification, then invite housemothers to work some hours as board directors. The challenges mothers have to confront in their daily routines are way often much harder and much different from those that their then men board colleagues face.

Also, as an economist, to guarantee more gender income equality, start by arguing for parents, most usually women, to be remunerated for their socially so important work of taking care of their children or elderly. Unfortunately housemothers, just as the unemployed, do not have unions to take care of their interests. 

@PerKurowski

Had our current bank regulators been instructed by robots, we might not be in this mess

Sir I refer to Jeevan Vasagar’s “My first robot” July 13.

Why do I argue the possibility indicated in the title? Because perhaps robots could have been able to help their students to shake off sentimentalities and primal emotions a bit more, and taught for instance our regulators that what is risky for banks, is not what they also intuitively could feel to be risky to our banks, but quite the opposite.

What is fervently believed safe, like something with an AAA rating, is what can cause banks to generate excessive and dangerous exposures; on the contrary, what is believed risky, as something rated below BB-, is what bankers won’t touch with a ten feet pole.

But what did the regulators educated by humans do? In Basel II they assigned a risk weight of 20% to what is AAA rated, and one of 150% to the below BB- rated.

And so we would not ended up with a 2007-08 crisis caused by an excessive exposure to AAA rated bonds and sovereigns like Greece; and we would not be suffering a slow response to all QE and low interest stimuli, caused by the lack of loans to “risky” SMEs and entrepreneurs.

@PerKurowski

Our societal radar does not record sufficiently many crucial problems and less do we discuss their possible solutions

Sir, Gillian Tett refers to JD Vance’s “Hillbilly Elegy” April 28.

The author, having faced “a family and culture in crisis” and in order to “combat a culture of instability, irresponsibility, anger and pessimism, made worse by opioid addiction’ suggests, besides the reintroduction of [some] military service, giving extended family members easier adoption rights over troubled children, enabling people receiving housing vouchers to move beyond poverty-stricken ghettos, and, most crucially, encouraging business to work with schools and community colleges to reshape education for teenagers, with more mentoring and apprenticeships.”

Ms. Tett concludes, “These are profoundly sensible steps. But they are also notably not measures that are getting much attention from Trump, let alone from the Democrats. Therein lies the tragedy of America today.”

Absolutely, it is a tragedy, but not only of America. Too much is not recorded timely by our social radars, or if identified then becomes horribly distorted, most often by those who want to profit, monetary or political, from the solutions.

For example: The world is facing structural unemployment, among other by robots and automation becoming more and more efficient. But was that talked about during the last election? No! It was not as politically juicy as going after, or defending, immigrants. If it had been discussed the Mexican wall could have been a non-issue.

In such a jobless world, in order to remain viable societies, we would have to create decent and worthy unemployments, which would probably have to include some sort of universal basic income? But was that talked about during the last election? No!

Also, for our economies to be able to move forward we have to stop current insanely risk adverse bank regulations, that refinances up to the tilt the safer present and past, while refusing financing the riskier future. Is that distortion discussed? No way Jose! If you do they might not invite you to Davos.

Instead populists agitate for instance with realities such as some few billionaires holding more wealth than half of the world’s population…while conveniently ignoring how un-transferrable such wealth really is… or scream about all the “cash stashed away” as if that cash was cash.

To have a chance to leave something reasonably workable to our grandchildren, we need to dramatically realign many incentives and fight those who are marketing solutions only to profit on these. In that respect here follows some of my wishes:

That we are able to keep the fiscal income lean since that is the only way to guarantee the fiscal spending does not get mean.

That we fight tooth and nail against all redistribution profiteers. By for instance creating carbon taxes that helps to save the environment, but that have all its revenues shared directly, equally, among citizens.

That we develop guidelines that help us classify credits, and as a consequence debts, into legitimate or odious.

That we make the pension plans of academics of the universities entirely contingent on how it goes for their students. As a minimum their pension funds should hold all the education loans that were given out in order to pay their salaries.

And of course, please, we must get rid of the so useless and so dangerous risk weighted capital requirements for banks.

@PerKurowski

World Bank: How can we create decent and worthy unemployments to help face a worldwide structural lack of jobs?

Sir, Kristalina Georgieva, writes about the needs for jobs, the difficulties involved with creating these jobs, everywhere, and of how the World Bank is trying to help. “Job insecurity is a fact of life for young people” April 22.

That is all very commendable but what I truly miss, for instance during the 2017 Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF, is a discussion, long overdue, about what to do if sufficient jobs are nowhere to be found.

The very real possibility of hundred of millions of young people soon facing the prospects of a lifelong lack of employment, perhaps only eased by some few temporary gigs, is a monstrous social challenge, that must be tackled in time.

For instance if in order to create jobs, we invest so much that there is little left over for taking care of if we fail to do so, then perhaps our problems could compound.

And I am of course not talking about the normal set of social safety nets to take care of a temporary lack of jobs, but of much more fundamental measures… like perhaps the need of a well funded universal basic income paid out to all.

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2012/04/we-need-worthy-and-decent-unemployments.html

Education is of utmost importance for creating jobs, but business as usual will not suffice. For instance some of the remuneration of teachers and professors need to be contingent on how it goes for the students. The current way of loading up university students with debt, that has to be repaid no matter what, basically in order to pay professors great salaries up front, smells a lot like a scam… or like bankers’ bonuses based on short-term results.

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2007/01/should-not-higher-education-be-more-of.html

PS. Had the issue of how robots and automation is impacting the job market been raised earlier, we would perhaps not have to be listening to useless Wall construction proposals.

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/02/here-some-disorderly-lose-cannon.html

@PerKurowski

How many university professors know they are educating kids for jobs not to be had?

Sir, Mo Ibrahim writes: “the more time young people in Africa spend in education, the more likely they are to be unemployed… It highlights the worrying mismatch between the skills our young people are taught and those needed by the contemporary job market. This is a recipe for frustration and anger” “Africa’s youth, frustrated and jobless, demand attention”, April 13.

Scary! But it is even scarier if we connect this to Rana Foroohar “Dangers of the college debt bubble”, April 10 and Alex Pollock’s letter of April 12, “Colleges are acting like subprime loan brokers”.

A question. In our universities how many of the professors might be aware of the slim chances of their students’ landing a job in the future that will allow them to service their student debt and have a life… and still say nothing?

In many occasions over the years I have written about the needs to better align the remuneration of professors, at least their pensions, with the future of their students.

It is amazing to see so many professors criticizing bankers for poaching their clients while they de facto behave just the same. Load up the kids with loans, so that we can collect (bonuses) today! 

It will not work, and it will come back and bite us all.

PS. If I owed a student loan I would ask for a debt to equity conversion, offering a percentage of my after tax earnings over a certain amount for a definite number of years.

http://teawithft.blogspot.com/2010/04/if-incentives-are-correctly-aligned-all.html

http://onechildonevote.blogspot.com/2007/01/should-not-higher-education-be-more-of.html

PS. We need worthy and decent unemployments

@PerKurowski

The greatest educational challenge is how to fight the extremism and groupthink now put on steroids by social media

Sir, Martin Wolf writes: “The belief that a degree is the only qualification that matters has had dysfunctional effects” “Simple-minded economics distorts the education debate”

Absolutely! “Ample evidence exists of graduates doing jobs that used not to need degrees” and all this when robots and artificial intelligence are only warming up.

But, in Venezuela, the educators supposed to educate our youngsters, don’t say a word about that, in a country in which the lack of food and medicines is killing people, petrol (gas) is sold for US$0.01 a litre (4 US$ cents per gallon).

But, in the developed world, reputable finance and economy professors, supposed to educate our professionals, don’t say a word about that the risk weighted capital requirements for banks dangerously and uselessly distort the allocation of bank credit; and as a consequence a Martin Wolf can get away with not writing about these regulations having dysfunctional effects.

What made educators in Venezuela and professors in the developed world behave this way? And what are we to do when all educators are also being further groupthinked and radicalized by political agendas and social media? I really don’t know. But I do know that leaving it in the hands of governments as Wolf seems to suggest, would be a very childish and statist illusion.

(For the time being) I have two beautiful, bright and spiritual (Canadian) granddaughters. They make me spend much time trying to identify a Hogwarts School for them that could help me to keep them magic.

PS. Thinking back I must be so grateful for my parents, and grandparents, to have allowed me to go to a boarding school that, at least during that time, had something of Hogwarts, though luckily without the witchcraft. I refer to Sigtuna Humanistiska Läroverk in Sweden.

@PerKurowski

Universities, allow imperfect and perhaps even inadequate minds, to have a voice in your classrooms. That's diversity!

My daughter, an art fanatic, on hearing my explanation about the monstrous mistake of credit-risk weighted capital requirements for banks, pointed me to “The forger’s spell”, a book by Edward Dolnick about the falsification of Vermeer paintings. Was she right!

In it Dolnick makes a reference to Francis Fukuyama having heard Daniel Moynihan opining: “There are some mistakes it takes a Ph.D. to make”. And Dolnick also speculates that perhaps Fukuyama had in mind George Orwell’s comment, in “Notes on Nationalism”, that of: “one has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool.” 

That is why when now Della Bradshaw reports about “a growing recognition that the world’s intractable problems need business solutions means MBA directors are searching for students with a more diverse background to fill their classrooms” I say: “Way to Go!” “More variety is the spice of classroom life” October 5.

Of course we must inject some confident ordinary minds in the classes in order for these to pose the questions that must be made. My impression is that experts never really try sufficiently to convince other experts of why they are right and others wrong, but they do their utmost when it comes to convincing the non-experts that they are the best experts.

Oh if I only had been in those classes where the minds of sophisticated future bank regulators were trying to estimate unexpected losses in the same direction as those expected losses derived from perceived risks.

My ordinary mind would not have been able to hear such foolishness and keep silence. Don’t you know that out there, in the real world, what is really risky is that what we can wrongly perceive as absolutely safe? I have never heard of a substantial number of persons dying because of bungee jumping. Have you?

As an Executive Director in the World Bank I once stated: "A mixture of thousand solutions, many of them inadequate, may lead to a flexible world that can bend with the storms. A world obsessed with Best Practices may calcify its structure and break with any small wind.” So, universities, please allow for imperfect and even inadequate minds, to also have a voice in your classrooms.

That said, be careful though with what the calls for diversity really means. It could be modern Giuseppe di Lampedusa types wanting to diversify only in order to remain the same.

@PerKurowski ©

Here are two wicked questions for Gillian Tett on the Math and physics vs. English and history debate.

Sir, Gillian Tett, with a lot of good reasons and arguments, raises the issue of whether it is good for America that fewer students opt for, let us say harder science subjects and settle for, let us say easier English and history courses, “A need to change the subjects of desire” June 15. This is a really difficult topic and to prove here are two wicked questions for the debate:

If there were too many Americans studying science and therefore too many American scientists could be out of work, could that not provoke the kind of protectionist actions which could lead perhaps for some of the best scientists in the world not being able to get to America?

In terms of keeping the society strong, united and peaceful, what courses would you prefer that a forever-unemployed had taken…English or physics?

Lawrence Summers defends convincingly voucher programs in health and education

Sir, in “The US state will expand no matter the election result”, August 20, Lawrence Summers writes: 

“Increases in the price of what the federal government buys relative to what the private sector buys will inevitably increase the cost of state involvement in the economy. Since the early 1980s the price of hospital care and higher education has risen fivefold relative to the price of cars and clothing and more than 100-fold relative to the price of televisions.” 

Even when netting out of the technological advance’s impact on costs, it would seem that the above constitutes an extremely spirited defense of vouchers programs.

If the incentives are correctly aligned all bonuses make sense.

Sir, John Kay in “When a bonus culture is just a poor joke” April 28, that he would have felt insulted if as a teacher he were to receive a bonus from a student on the successful completion of a course.

Why should he feel that way if the incentives were well aligned? You see it is really not the completion of a course that matters, as Kay seems to believe, but what you do in life with that completion. In this respect let me share with Kay some brief paragraphs I posted on one of my umpteenth blogs a couple of years ago.

Don’t give your teacher an apple; offer him a couple of basis points in your earnings instead.

Parent and students need some way of sorting through the reams of college information in order to make rational investments, but may I remind you that even when finding the absolute perfect college that you might benefit from aligning the incentives better.

In this respect what I am currently recommending my young friends when they take off for their MBA is that they offer a couple of basis points on their first 10 years earnings to those teachers they feel could best advance their careers…it makes wonders! 

Aligning the incentives could in the long run also be the best way of getting information for the picking of a college to, as education should in fact be a joint venture between students, teachers, and colleges.

The education of your neighbor’s kids is part of your own kid’s education

Sir, Mr Manuel Riesco when arguing “Chile’s experience belies claims of those who believe in superiority of private schools”, February 24 is rightly concerned with “the poorest remaining in the public schools which have deteriorated” but somehow he seems to imply this would be the fault of the private schools, which obviously it is not. As I have always believed that the education of your own children might turn out to be dangerously useless if your neighbor’s children are left behind, I have always been a supporter of public education. Nonetheless, public education can be given through private mechanisms such as the vouchers and so Mr Riesco’s concern should perhaps be why the poorest of Chile have not received a sufficient large voucher to be able to access a private school. And of course this does neither imply that the public schools cannot or should not be good too.

We should make sure that the private education incentives are better aligned.

Sir, while we wholeheartedly agree with your support of “The private role in educating the poorest” February 17, we cannot but observe that perhaps everyone could benefit from having the incentives of the educators somewhat better aligned to the final results for the students. This could perhaps be achieved by having the educators, instead of collecting all their dues cash, upfront, receiving participation in the future earnings of those who they supposedly educate to be able to earn.

This idea of “Human Capital Contracts, that as far as we know was first advanced by Milton Friedman in 1954, is indeed a real education revolution waiting to happen, and a small company called Lumni is showing us the way having already managed to finance the education of some students in Chile and Colombia against a modest percentage of their future earnings, for some months or years.

You also mention the role that building brands could have in education by motivating the quest for quality, but there we should hope that those brands are not purely the result of advertising budgets and that the promises of those brands are backed up with the investment of some real money of their own. Ideally the “Human Capital Contracts” should be standardize in such a way as to permit their securitization, and thereby mobilize the resources that are much needed. Investing in the future earnings of our youth sounds more than reasonable, perhaps even for the professors’ retirement fund, that is of course if the professors really can deliver on their promises.

Following this route, will also diminish the risk of seeing someone suing their Alma Mater for failing in delivering its services.

Should not Higher Education be more of a joint venture?

Sir, hearing so many young professionals in the USA describing their problems with debts they incurred while studying, I guess that soon some of them could be suing their Alma Maters for misrepresentation or plain failure in delivering the services offered.

Perhaps the incentive structure of the education system needs to be revised so that at least some of the higher education providers offer to collect a part of their fees through a profit participation scheme, like for instance by receiving a small percentage of the student’s future earned gross income that is above the level that the student could have been estimated to earn without further education, during his first 20 years of work.

How are then the universities going to pay for their professors now? Easy, that is what the financial markets are for. These participations in the future of our youngsters could be securitized and sold in the markets, perhaps even as a good investment for a professor’s retirement fund… of course, that is if the professor delivers on his promises.

For a university to show a willingness to invest in their own students, because they are sure of what they are giving them, might be a better marketing tool than outright grants and “we invest our money in your future” is my slogan. Also, for students, the question of what university offers to invests the most present dollars against the smallest percentage of the expected future earnings... should rank among the first when selecting an Alma Mater into which to invest their own future.