Showing posts with label crisis 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crisis 2008. Show all posts

May 30, 2020

Free markets were set up to go bad, because of bad bank regulations.

John Thornhill writes: “The global financial crisis of 2008 exploded the ideology that markets always deliver the goods” “Three game-changing ideas to shape the post-pandemic world” Life and Arts, May 30.

Sir, that is the problem, because that is exactly what all those against free markets want us to believe. 

The 2008 crisis resulted from huge exposures to securities collateralized with mortgages to the subprime sector in the USA, turning out risky. 

And those huge exposures were a direct result of: Regulators allowing European banks and US investment banks to hold these securities, if these were rated AAA to AA, which they were, against only 1.6% in capital; meaning banks could leverage their equity an amazing 62.5 times. 

Securitization, just like making sausages, is the most profitable when you pack the worst and are able to sell it of as the best. If you can sell someone a $300.000 mortgage at 11 percent for 30 years, which was a typical mortgage to the subprime sector, and then package it in a security that you could get rated a AAA to AA, so that someone would want to buy it if it offered a six percent return, then you would pocket an immediate profit of $210.000. 

The combination of those two temptations proved irresistible.

September 22, 2018

The pulmonary capacity of banks went from unlimited, through 62.5, 35.7 to 12.5 times of allowed leverage. Where do you think bubbles were blown?

Sir, I refer to John Authers review of “Ray Dalio’s” “A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises” September 22, 2018.

I have not read the book, and something in it could apply to other bubbles but, if Dalio left out mentioning the distortions produced by the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, those that caused the 2008 crises, he would surely have failed any class of mine on the subject.

Sir, let me be as clear as I can be. 100%, not 99%, 100% of the bank assets that caused the 2008 crisis were assets that, because they were perceived as especially safe, dumb regulators therefore allowed banks to hold these against especially little capital. 

The allowed leverages, after Basel II, that applied to European banks and American investment banks like Lehman Brothers were:

AAA rated sovereigns, including those the EU authorities authorized, like Greece, had a 0% risk weight, which translated into unlimited leverage.

AAA rated corporate assets, were assigned a risk weight of 20%, signifying a permissible 62.5 times leverage.

Residential mortgages were assigned a risk weight of 35%, translating into a 35.7 allowed leverage.

Of course, after the crisis broke out, any few “risky” assets banks held, like loans to entrepreneurs, those that banks could only leverage 12.5 times with went through, (and still do), a serious crisis of their own, when banks began to dump anything that could help them improve that absolutely meaningless Tier 1 capital ratio.


@PerKurowski