The risk weighted bank capital requirements, is just a lean and mean “regression to the mean” machine.

Sir, Tim Harford when discussing luck and reversal of fortunes, holds that genius followed by mediocrity [is] likely a “regression to the mean”, or in simple terms, a return to business as usual. “It can be hard to discern luck from judgment” May 25.

Indeed, but sometimes that reversal to the mean, has nothing to do with such mystical issues as luck, but is a direct consequence of a distortion. 

As I have often written to FT about, allowing banks regulatory privileges when financing what’s perceived as safe, like sovereigns or houses, will result in too much financing of the safe, which will cause “the safe”, sooner or later to revert to become very risky.

In the same vein, those who without correcting for a crisis are now considered triumphant, like ECB’s Mario Draghi, only because they’ve managed to kick a crisis-can forward, will one day be held much accountable, when that crisis can rolls back on some, as it sure must.

@PerKurowski

Italy’s mostly domestic debt is denominated and must be served, in a mostly foreign currency, the euro.

Sir, Isabelle Mateos y Lago informs that “the bulk of sovereign debt is owed to Italian residents rather than eurozone governments.” “Greek debt crisis echoes resound in Italy’s face-off with Brussels” October 25.

EU’s authorities assigned to all sovereigns using the euro, by means of something called “Sovereign Debt Privileges”, for purposes of the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, a 0% risk weight

The only way one could foreseeable defend such outright statist idiocy, is with the argument that nations are always able to nominally pay their debt by printing themselves out of too much debt. Unfortunately these euro nations do not have their own euro-printing machine.

The challenges with the adoption of the euro twenty years ago were immense and surely known by many. Myself, far away from Europe, in Venezuela, in November 1998 published an Op-Ed titled “Burning the bridges in Europe”. In it I wrote: 

“The possibility that the European countries will subordinate their political desires to the whims of a common Central Bank that may be theirs but really isn’t, is not a certainty. Exchange rates, while not perfect, are escape valves. By eliminating this valve, European countries must make their economic adjustments in real terms. This makes these adjustments much more explosive.”

So here we are with mindboggling little having been done to solve the euro challenges. Pushing more debt on needing sovereigns basically just kicked the can containing the euro’s problems down the road.

Mateos y Lago concludes: “Italy is too big and strong to be pushed around. So Italians will decide their own fate. The others should redouble efforts to survive this potential wrecking ball. This means adopting European Stability Mechanism instruments that would allow near instant access to OMT to well-run countries suffering from contagion, and provide some form of collective insurance against bank runs for institutions that meet agreed criteria” Indeed but that is again just pushing the euro challenge forward upon the next in line.

That, to me, sounds just like “Let’s kick the euro-problem can down the road again!”

Sir, as I’ve told you many times before, it is also mindboggling how in all the overheated Brexit/Remain discussions, so little attention has been given to the EUs very delicate conditions

@PerKurowski

To minimize the next unavoidable financial crisis, get rid of the dangerous risk weighted capital requirements for banks.

Sir, Martin Wolf backs IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report of October 2018 by requiring that “above all we must keep [bank] capital requirements up”, “How to avoid the next financial crisis”, October 9.

No one, except of course those bankers whose bonuses depend a lot on not having to compensate much capital, would argue against banks having to hold more capital. But, after a bank crisis that resulted exclusively from excessive bank exposures to assets especially perceived as safe, and that therefore regulators allowed banks to hold against especially little capital, it should be clear that even more important than more capital, it is to get rid of the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, those which so distort the allocation of bank credit.

Wolf writes: “The pre-crisis world was one of globalisation, belief in markets and confident democracies” Really? If so that’s because way too few knew what was happening.

“Confident democracies” In 1988, with the Basel Accord, one year before the Berlin Wall fell, bank regulators, without due consultations, smuggled in risk weights of 0% for the sovereign and 100% for the citizens. Sir, no matter how you see it, that is statism imposed by unelected autocrats that has nothing to do with democracy.

“Belief in markets” When regulators, with Basel II of 2004, assigned a risk weight of 150% to what was rated below BB- and only 20% to what was rated AAA to AA, they very clearly, stated, bankers don’t see shit, so we must help them out.

Sir, some might take comfort that current figures, even not as good as if the crisis had not happened, are still acceptable. They will soon wake up to the fact that these relative decent post crisis results, come from kicking the crisis can forward, and from the debt-financed anticipation of demand. That can, will soon start rolling back on our children and grandchildren. Great kicking authorities!

PS. Again! Had regulators understood that risk-weighted capital requirements for banks only guarantee especially large exposures, against especially little capital, to what’s perceived or decreed as especially safe, an especially big crisis like that of 2008 would not have happened

@PerKurowski

EU needs to find a president of the European Central Bank quite different from Mario Draghi… whatever it takes

Sir, you opine, “The most worthwhile tribute that European governments can make Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, is to find a successor who most closely replicates his attributes and has the best chance of continuing his success. There are few harder acts to follow in global policymaking than his. He has helped rewrite the central banking handbook, shepherding the euro through an existential threat from the sovereign debt crisis and the danger of a deflationary recession. “Next ECB chief should be in the Draghi mould” August 30. 

I disagree and believe that FT, at some point down the road, will have to eat up these words of praise for Draghi; who alsopreviously served as the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board from 2009 to 2011 and Governor of the Bank of Italy from 2005 to 2011.

Draghi, as a regulator, with the risk weighted capital requirements for banks was partt of the team that introduced a risk-aversion, which ignored all the valuable services banks provided, when acting as the societies’ designated risk-takers.

Draghi, as a regulator, ignoring conditional probabilities, supported risk weighted capital requirements for banks based on the perceived risk of assets and not based on how banks could manage those assets dependent on their own perceptions of risk. That distorted the allocation of credit, causing among other banks to fall over a precipice when chasing those AAA to AA rated securities they were allowed to leverage a mind-blowing 62.5 times with.

Draghi, as a regulator, was, is, a statist of first degree, for agreeing with risk weights of 0% for the sovereign and 100% for the citizen.

Draghi, as a European central banker, who must have known that the challenges the euro posed had not been taken care of, irresponsibly agreed when Greece was assigned a 0% risk weight, which caused its current tragedy.

What Draghi did in ECB, was just to act as the principal member of that kicking team that kicked the crisis-can down the road, willfully ignoring the fact that European grandchildren will suffer when that can begins to roll back on them.

Sir, in summary, the next ECB chief should know about the importance of risk taking, about conditional probabilities, should not be a statist, and should be able to refuse punishing a EU nation, like Greece, for the mistakes of EU authorities. 

So, whatever it takes, he should be very different from Draghi. I would hold that EU’s own chances of survival depends much on that. 

@PerKurowski

What do we all have left to counter any major new round of debt-failures with?

Sir, Jonathan Wheatley reports that according to the Institute of International Finance “Total debt owed by households, governments, and financial and non-financial corporations were $247.2 tn at the end of March 2018 and, relative to gross domestic product, exceeded 318 per cent” “EM exposure Surging debt puts pressure on global financial system” July 12.

Emerging markets? What about all of us?

Households count on their income and worth of assets, basically houses, to pay back their debt… and their increased debt, anticipated demand, means they cannot help each other as much as they used to.

Non-financial corporates, which have become much more leveraged, count on business remaining healthy, though indebted households and governments will find it harder to keep up the demand they need.

Governments depend mostly on tax revenues, and these will depend on how it goes for households and non-financial corporations.

Financial corporates depend on deriving some profitability intermediating for the other three sectors, and on In God We Trust 

Looking at the harrowing figures three questions come to my mind.

The first, where would we all be if we in 2007-2008 had gone for the hard landing I suggested in 2006, instead of pushing the crisis can forward?

The second, where would our banks and all our debts be if banks had needed to hold for instance 10% in capital against all assets?

The third, WTF do we all have left to counter any major new round of debt-failures with?

@PerKurowski

The financial crisis can was just kicked forward. At any moment it will roll back on us, with vengeance.

Sir, Raghuram Rajan, though indicating problems, writes: “The world economy has finally managed to recover from the financial crisis” “Bond markets send signals of a looming recession” June 29.

Sir, on the surface the signs of a recovery are there but, under the surface there are huge build-ups of asset values, shares and house prices, and of personal, public and corporate debt, that herald difficult times.

In August 2006, when trouble was already in the air, you published my letter titled “The long term benefits of a hard landing”. Clearly nothing of what I there argued was considered.

With QEs, Tarps, Asset Purchase programs, fiscal deficits, low interest rates and the keeping of much of the insane low capital requirements for banks, the crisis can was just pushed forward. 

Add to that Eurozone, China, Brexit, robots grabbing jobs, trade wars, migrant issues and so many unresolved problems, and one can perhaps begin to understand a not to be named reason for how so many want to legalize the use of marihuana.

Sir, again, much of the current mess is directly produced by the frantic efforts of regulators and central bankers to hide their responsibility in causing the 2007-08 crisis and ensuing hardships.

For God’s sake! In Greece they are hauling in front of courts a statistician for telling the truth, while those that with their absurd and irresponsible 0% risk weighing of that nation doomed it to excessive public debt, are free to roam and lecture us about good economics. 

@PerKurowski

Now, ten years after, have not all quantitative easing and low interest rates just kicked the crisis can down the road?

Sir, Martin Wolf writes: “A… criticism is that easy money policies have worsened inequality, especially of wealth. But keeping the post-crisis economy in recession in order to reduce wealth inequality would have been insane. In any case, wealth inequality matters less than inequality of incomes, where the effect of raising asset prices is to lower returns for prospective owners, so improving inequality in the longer term. Above all, the worst form of inequality is to leave millions of people stuck unnecessarily in prolonged unemployment.” "Unusual times call for unusual strategies from central banks" November 13.

We are now into ten years of post-crisis. How can Mr. Wolf be so sure that if painkillers like Tarp and quantitative easing had not been prescribed, that we would now be in a worse position in terms of unemployment and in terms of inequality? Perhaps that all just kicked the can down the road, a can that could begin to violently roll back on us.

Sir, in August 2006 you published a letter of mine titled “Long-term benefits of a hard landing”. In it I wrote: 

“Why not try to go for a big immediate adjustment and get it over with? Yes, a collapse would ensue and we have to help the sufferer, but the morning after perhaps we could all breathe more easily and perhaps all those who, in the current housing boom could not afford to jump on the bandwagon, would then be able to do so, and take us on a new ride, towards a new housing boom in a couple of decades.

This is what the circle of life is all about and all the recent dabbling in topics such as debt sustainability just ignores the value of pruning or even, when urgently needed, of a timely amputation.”

I agree with that “wealth inequality matters less than inequality of incomes” but when Wolf then holds that “the effect of raising asset prices is to lower returns for prospective owners, so improving inequality in the longer term”, it would seem he would also agree with the benefits of a hard landing… that is as long as it is not on his watch.

In my Venezuela we have seen how millions of citizens who had reasonable expectations for the future, are now in desperate conditions. They have learned the hard way that no matter how much they might hold in assets, this means little if at the time you want to convert your assets into actual street purchasing capacity, there is no one there to buy these. And, as we sure have learned, to move from very good to very bad can be lightning fast. 

And I will keep on arguing… if government and regulators prioritize the financing of the sovereigns and of houses so much more than the financing of SMEs and entrepreneurs, we will be heading to a future of much poverty, lived out in an abundance of less and less maintained houses.

Wolf ends with: “given the instability of finance, today’s low neutral interest rates and the unwillingness of governments to use fiscal policy, the willingness of central banks to adopt unconventional policies may be all we have to manage the next big downturn.

Yes we might be in dire need of “unconventional policies”, but not necessarily from the central banks.

For instance we should urgently think of creating decent and worthy unemployments, to face the possibility of a structural lack of jobs. For that I would begin studying how to tax robots and artificial intelligence, and or how to reduce the margins of the redistribution profiteers, in such a way that it permits us to design and fund a universal basic income.

The UBI could initially be small, perhaps just US$ 100 per month, something to help you get out of bed, not so large as to help you stay in the bed, but the system has to be in place before social fabric breaks down, or before populists make hay of our problems.

PS. Today’s low neutral interest rates are artificially set low neutral interest rates

@PerKurowski

If kicking the can forward does not come with changing what caused the crisis, it will roll back and trample you

Sir, Wolfgang Münchau writes: “Herein lies the true tragedy of the ECB asset purchases… the ECB may never be able to stop them’, “An ailing eurozone still requires extreme treatment” October 30.

Europe is extremely dependent on bank lending and with the risk weighted capital requirements for banks regulators have hindered banks from lending to what the economy most need banks to lend to, namely small and medium sized businesses and entrepreneurs.

Their risk weights for their capital requirements says it all: sovereigns 0%, AAA rated 20%, mortgages on residential houses 35% and the SMEs and entrepreneurs 100%.

Did those perceived as risky SMEs and entrepreneurs cause the crisis? Of course not! They never do.

And keeping in place that same regulatory discrimination against the risky, has guaranteed that most stimuli imbedded in the ECB purchases of assets has not been able to go to where it could most help the economy. Ergo, Europe has a weak economy.

PS. Long term benefits from a hard landing

@PerKurowski

What extraordinary things since the crisis have central banks achieved? Having kicked the can down the road?

Sir, Alan Beattie writes: “By being prepared to embrace the radical in the face of ill-informed criticism… — central banks have achieved extraordinary things since the global financial crisis. It would be most peculiar if now, when the pressure on them has abated, they mistakenly returned to a model of monetary policy rooted in the pre-crisis era.” “Central banks have a duty to come clean about inflation” September 23.

Sir, since the global financial crisis have really central banks achieved extraordinary things for most? I am not so sure. In many ways it seems they have only dangerously kicked the crisis can forward, while leaving in place the regulatory distortions that caused the crisis

But indeed let’s come clean about inflation. What would the inflation be if:

Most stimuli had not gone to increase the value of what is not on the Consumer Price Index

If there had not been so much credit overhang resulting from anticipating demand for such a long time.

If there had not been an ongoing reduction in the costs of retailing much of what is recorded on CPI.

If non-taxed robots and other automations had not put a squeeze on costs

Then the inflation could have been huge… so what are central bankers so fixated on the CPI?

PS. What would the inflation be, if the I-phone was in the CPI? J

@PerKurowski

ECB’s Mario Draghi’s star quality would evaporate had he to publicly answer some hard questions on bank regulations

Roger Blitz writes: “Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, will be the star at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming this year.” “Weak dollar remains centre stage” August 5.

Sir, if Mario Draghi, a former chair of the Financial Stability Board, and the current chair of the Group of Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS) of the Basel Committee, and therefore one of the most responsible for current bank regulations is the star of anything, that is only because he has never been made to fully answer some questions about current bank regulations in public, by his peers or by for instance FT’s journalist.

There are many many questions I could think of, but let me just indicate two:

First: Mr. Draghi. Do you not think that allowing banks to leverage more their equity with the net margins offered by those perceived safe than with those same margins when offered by those perceived risky; which means it is easier for banks to obtain higher returns on equity with “the safe” than with “the risky” does not distort the allocation of credit to the real economy?

If Draghi answers no, then there is nothing to do, as he would be evidencing he is clueless about finance on Main Street. If he answers yes then follow up with: Don’t you think this could be dangerous for the real economy and who authorized you and your colleagues to do so?

Second: Mr. Draghi, obviously current risk weighted capital requirements for banks, more perceived risk more capital, less risk less capital, indicates you the regulators believe that what is perceived as risky, is what is risky for the bank system. So, will you please tell us when there has ever been a bank crisis that has resulted from excessive exposures to what was perceived as risky when placed on the balance sheets of banks? As far as I gather from history all bank crisis, no exceptions, have been caused by unexpected events, criminal behavior or excessive exposures to what was perceived as safe when incorporated on banks’ balance sheet but that later, ex post, turned out to be very risky.

If Draghi answers yes, then he is deaf and has not heard the question. If he answers no, then ask him to explain why Basel II assigned a standard risk weight of 20% to what was AAA to AA rated and a 150% to what was rated below BB- and would therefore not be touched by bankers even with a ten feet pole.

Sir, Mario Draghi at ECB and others at the Fed with QEs and low interest rates, have just been kicking the 2008 crisis can down the road. The risk weighted capital requirements have caused that can to roll on the wrong roads. That is an act of terrorism against our economies.

@PerKurowski

Where would China be if western world had not placed a reverse mortgage on their economies, in order to keep on buying?

Sir, with interest I have read Martin Wolf’s “How the developed world lost its edge” July 20. In my opinion Wolf ignores two major events that had these not happened would have radically changed the current outlook.

First, regulators told banks: “Go out in the market and negotiate the best risk-adjusted net margins you can. And then, in order to make sure you do not take risks, we will allow you to multiply these margins much more in the case of assets perceived as safe than in the case of risky assets.”

That of course led to the accumulation of excessive exposures and against very little capital (equity), to something ex ante perceived decreed of concocted as safe, like AAA rated securities and sovereigns, which when ex-post turning out very risky caused the 2008-crisis.

And then central banks, with their QEs and ultralow interest rates, hindered the necessary market cleanup, and kicked the 2008-crisis can down the road, a road made unproductive by previous mentioned regulatory risk aversion.

So what resulted? No adjustment and further indebtedness, which allowed prices of assets to increase and demand (among other of Chinese production) to be sustained… further allowing the Chinese to save. 

Wolf writes: “The rapid growth of both trade and cross-border financial assets and liabilities and trade, relative to global output, has come to a halt. In the case of finance, plausible explanations are risk-aversion and re-regulation”. “Risk-aversion”? Yes, but not any new one but that which result from regulators loading up, on top of bankers’ natural risk aversion, there own aversion based on the same perceived risks. The bankers lend you the umbrella when the sun shine’s Mark Twain, would never have believed his eyes had he seen such regulatory nonsense.

Sir, as I’ve written to you many times before, never ever has a generation taken on so much debt to finance their own consumption, and shown so little respect for the needs of future generations, those needs that include bankers lending to risky SMEs and entrepreneurs.

How can a Western world made great by taking risks, not lose its edge by avoiding it?

Wolf concludes with: “Rising populist pressure across the high-income economies makes managing these shifts far more difficult.” Indeed, but let us not forget that this mess began when some truly inept populist technocrats, like real life Chauncey Gardiners, convinced governments they knew what they we doing.

PS. Martin Wolf also fell for it.

@PerKurowski