Are identified non-performing loans truly riskier to bank systems than those many still out there waiting to be identified as such?

Sir, Arthur Beesley reports that “ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism, a watchdog created in 2014 to oversee eurozone banks, is pressing Irish lenders to achieve a 5 per cent NPL ratio in line with European norms”,“Irish banks step up efforts to shed bad debts” August 22.

Of course it is in general terms good when banks clean up their balance sheets but, I must ask: Why should identified non-performing loans be more risky to a country’s financial stability than those loans that could be about to be identified as such?

“A 5 per cent NPL ratio in line with European norms” That sounds precisely like what deskbound regulators might invent in order to show everyone they’re working hard. How much better would it not be for all if these regulators took some time off in order to take a course on the meaning of conditional probabilities; I mean so that could move away from that simpleton idea of risk weighting the capital requirement for banks based on the risks that are perceived.

“There’s a very healthy demand for loan assets on Irish property,” said Owen Callan, equity analyst at Investec in Dublin…[so] it’s not a bad opportunity to get rid of some of these loans in what is a very strong market.”

Great! But if that was not the case, should Irish banks anyhow have to obey regulators sitting in Fankfurt am Main inventing general rules that should apply to all European banks, independent of their particular realities… like they did when they assigned a 0% risk weight to Greece?

Sir, I would never have voted for Brexit but, each day that goes by and I see how EU authorities do not confront the real EU challenges; like how to handle the absence of a foreign exchange adjustment mechanism lost with the Euro; and instead promote themselves with all type of small issues that are better handled by local authorities, I get the feeling it might have not been such a crazy vote.

@PerKurowski

Help! Our so serious looking bank regulating technocrats are guided by childish romantic illusions. That’s dangerous.

Sir, Arthur Beesley and Alex Barker quotes Frans Timmermans, vice-president of the European Commission with: “Politics is always a balance between the head and the heart. In European politics we’ve sort of forgotten about the heart for too long, just thinking with the head. Then you end up in the underbelly, apparently, in some of our member states.” “Timmermans urges EU ‘not to punish Brits’”, February 3.

For EU politics that could be correct, though I really don’t know, and besides there are always more or less intelligent heads. But, in the case of regulations where only heads should be at work, there I am 100% sure, at least in the case of bank regulators, that only hearts reign.

That is because anyone who thinks that what is ex-ante perceived as risky, is ex post more dangerous than what is perceived as safe, is a naïve romantic full of illusions. The smart heads, like Voltaire did, would say “May God defend me from my friends, I can defend myself from my enemies”

Now for those who like EU have embraced the Basel Committee’s principles, this means for instance that a bank is allowed to hold less capital (equity) when financing the purchase of a house, than when lending to a SME or an entrepreneur.

That means a bank can leverage its equity more when financing the purchase of a house than when lending to a SME or an entrepreneur.

That de facto means a bank can earn a higher expected risk-adjusted return on equity when financing the purchase of a house, than when lending to a SME or an entrepreneur.

Consequentially that means banks will much prefer financing the “safe” basements in which kids without jobs can live with their parents, than the “risky” SMEs or entrepreneurs that could help the kids get the jobs they need to be able to afford buying a house and become parents too.

If that is not extraordinarily dangerous for the future of EU, what is? Sir why don’t you suggest Timmermans that if he has some 100% head-applying technocrats available, then he should urgently have them to take over current bank regulations. 

@PerKurowski

Ms Merkel, Mr Renzi and Mr Hollande. Do you want to tackle growth and youth issues? Read the memo or give me a call.

Sir, Arthur Beesley, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in Paris and Stefan Wagstyl report on that the leaders of Germany, France and Italy will attempt to forge a common plan to bolster Europe’s economy; and that Sandro Gozi, Italian secretary of state for European affairs said: “Europe needs an immediate answer on growth, youth and security issues”, “European leaders seek to bolster economy” August 22.

Part of that is because the result of that a the €315bn investment plan introduced last year by Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission designed to tackle youth unemployment, during its first year, fell well short of expectations.

Here is what I would suggest they should do. They should ask their bank regulators whether when they regulated they gave any attention to the need that banks cooperate promoting sustainable growth and employment for the youth?

The answer they should receive, if the regulators were honest, would be: “Not one iota… all we cared about was for banks to avoid the risks we all perceive ex ante!”.

At that moment Ms Merkel Mr Renzi and Mr Hollande should begin to get an intuition that something is not smelling right.

In short, the current risk weighted capital requirements have banks avoiding the financing of the riskier future, and just keeping to the financing of the safer past, and that’s not the way for our economy to move forward, in order to not stall and fall.

Of course, if they want further explanation on how inept the current bank regulators are, they could read the following aide memoire, or they could give me a call.

@PerKurowski ©