On Brexit, as is usual these days in most issues, it would seem that both in Britain and EU, it is more profitable to divide than unite.

Sir, Martin Wolf writes that “In 2018 the EU’s exports to the UK were 79 per cent of its exports to the US and 153 per cent of its exports to China, though the UK economy was 14 per cent of that of the US and 21 per cent of China’s. The UK sent 47 per cent of its exports to the rest of the EU, against 13 per cent to the US and 6 per cent to China, though the US economy was 29 per cent bigger than the EU’s (excluding the UK), and China’s was only 16 per cent smaller.” “‘Global Britain’ is an illusion because distance has not died” May18.

It is not that very clear who depends most on whom for exports, Britain on EU, or EU on Britain? And I doubt you could really deduct that from these figures.

Nonetheless, that clearly evidences that it should also be in the interest of EU to come up with a counteroffer that could allow most of those who voted for Brexit to accept a Remain. As far as I know, there’s been nothing of that sort… even though, let me be very clear about it, neither does it seem Brexit proponents/negotiators have tried hard to propose something to EU that would make the Brexiters to accept a Remain.

In July 2017 in a letter to you I wrote: “I wonder why Martin Wolf, and most other influential Brexiters and Remainers, British foremost, supposedly, are not out there marketing the need for a very amicable Brexit, among all those Europeans that might wish the same, and who also the last thing they need, is for additional complications in their already hard as it is life.”

So why the lack of wanting to develop proposals that could bridge the differences between Brexiters and Remainers? Could it be, as is way too usual these days, that there is more political and financial profits in dividing than in uniting?

Sir, if so, what do we do about is, as that can only end up tragically bad, for all?

@PerKurowski

To unite Britain, Brexiters and Remainers must negotiate a compromise. Sadly, its polarization profiteers object to that.

Sir, Martin Wolf writes: “Brexit, has weaponised identity, turning those differences into accusations of treason. … Once the idea of “treachery” becomes part of political debate, only total victory or total defeat are possible… The country is so evenly divided, and emotions are so intense, that resolution is at present impossible” “Britain is once again the sick man of Europe”, April 18.

Indeed, as I wrote to Martin Wolf on April 13th, when walking on Fleet Street I heard a 7-8 years old girl ask: "Mommy, what's worse murder or Brexit?” Thank God, in this case, the mother was clear about the answer. 

But that question must have popped up in this girl’s mind, as a consequence of a growing worldwide radicalization. Children elsewhere could also be thought asking similar questions, like: murder or Trump, murder or climate change, murder or filthy rich, murder or whatever.

Much of it is the direct result of that creating division, especially in these days when messages of hate, envy or fake news, can be sent out to millions at zero marginal cost, is a much better business proposition than uniting… or reporting real news.

Sir, honestly, how many efforts have been invested by Britain’s elite in requesting changes to EU that could make sense to Brexiters, or to design a Brexit that could be acceptable for Remainers? I believe way too little!

Now when Wolf’s asserts that Britain’s most important crisis is economicand that “Britain is once again the sick man of Europe”I am absolutely not sure about that. Wherever you look in Europe you find way too many symptoms of economic and social ailments. 

For instance, just the fact that Eurozone’s sovereign were assigned a 0% risk weight, even though they take on debt in a currency that de facto is not their domestic (printable) one, presents more dangers to EU, than a Brexit would present to a Britain with a Pound based economy.

Sir, has FT played a responsible role as a unifier? Since we all have to live with our own consciences, which is not for me but for you to respond.

Let me though here say that as much as the little girl’s question shocked me, more did your ample coverage/publicity given to a minuscule “Extinction Rebellion” “Inside the new climate change resistance” April 11. That group predicates and “plans mass civil disobedience”, and is one that has wet dreams such as: “After two previous attempts to get herself arrested, Farhana Yamin …hopes she will soon see the inside of a police cell”.

Finally, and back to Brexit, if as Wolf says: “only total victory or total defeat are possible”,what do you believe Sir poses the greatest opportunities for Britain to ever become united again, Brexit or Remain? (I have an inkling that each day that passes, makes me feel closer to have to give a somewhat reluctant Brexit response to that)

PS. London’s West End needs an Oklahoma revival adapted to Britain. “The Brexiters and the Remainers should be friends”

 @PerKurowski

If Brexit ends in tears, Theresa May is clearly not the only one that should be blamed and not be forgiven.

Sir, Martin Wolf writes that Theresa May needed to begin Brexit negotiations “from the interests of the country. She has failed to do so… If the result is no deal, Mrs May could not be forgiven. “May is set on taking a hideous gamble” March 22.

Yes, for an outsider like me, Theresa May seems indeed to have managed very badly Brexit negotiations. But just as Lubomir Zaoralek the minister of foreign affairs of the Czech Republic wrote July 2016 in FT “Europe’s institutions must share the blame for Brexit”, the EU Brexit negotiators, like Michel Barnier, cannot be said to have no blame in any failure. 

And also, again for an outsider like me, I have seen little to nothing of all those Remainers giving, “from the interests of the country”, any constructive advice or cooperation in order to reach a more satisfactory solution. As I see it, the Brexit-failure political profiteers, as well as those eager to enhance their reputation by being able to point out “I told you so”, have refused to cooperate or to give any constructive advice, and so all they should also share the blame of a failure… and “not be forgiven.”

As far as I know a Hard Remain option that could have alleviated some of the Brexiters’ main justified concerns was never developed.

PS. A question: If because of the insane 0% risk weighting of their sovereigns the Eurozone breaks up, and drags down EU with it, would Britain be better off having Brexited or having remained in EU? 

@PerKurowski

If there’s a re-vote on Brexit, what will the Remainers suggest Britain remains in?

Sir, Jeff Colegrave makes a well reasoned case of why, if there is a new vote on Brexit, it is on the Remainers’ shoulders to make very clear what they are supporting to remain in. “Remainers risk hubris without a positive case for the union” December 17.

The three outstanding problems Colegrave wants to have a clear definition on are:

How the Eurozone can avoid that a generation of youth becomes again sacrificed, on the altar of the common currency.

How the EU can avoid manifestly failing to adequately address the issue of migration. 

And “the lack of democratic political architecture within the European project, [which] cannot lightly be dismissed as some kind of arcane irrelevance. 

I could not agree more. I would be a committed Remainer, only if EU shows clear intentions to stop being such a Banana Union. You do not build a real United European States with a bureaucracy such as that currently present in Brussels.

Let me be clearer yet. If a Remain wins, the last thing British citizen, or all of their other EU citizens colleagues need, is for that to be presented as a triumph or an endorsement of Brussels.

PS: With respect to the sacrifices on the altar of the common currency, I have sent you many letters, in which I have blamed EU authorities for the tragic over-indebtedness of many euro sovereigns, when assigning to the public debt contracted in a currency that de facto is not their domestic (printable) currency, for purposes of bank capital requirements, a 0% risk weight. But of course these letters are ignored, because Per Kurowski suffers just an obsession about current bank regulations. 

@PerKurowski

What if Britain could use a Remain to make the EU a more worthy union?

Sir, Martin Wolf writes “EU is a peace project that works by embedding mutual relations in a framework of equally-applicable and legally-binding rules. The mutual trust necessary to make the EU work depends on this.” “Misunderstanding the European project” October 5.

How beautiful, but does the reality stand up to this? I don’t think so. As example EU authorities, for the risk weighted capital requirements for banks decreed a 0% risk weight for Greece and, as a direct consequence Greece was offered too much credit and, unable to resist, took on too much debt. But then EU blamed Greece for it all, and left it alone to pay for it all.

Also, the number one EU challenge is to help many of its members meet the challenges the euro poses, challenges that were known from the very start. Have they done this? No, in the euro’s soon twenty years, EU techno/bureaucrats have spend more time on a lot of other minor issues that sometimes makes one think more of a Banana Union. 

How can/should a Remainder Britain respond to EU? Definitely not with a “sorry, we made a mistake” but much more by requiring EU to do whatever is needed to make it what Martin Wolf wants it to be.

Britain might need a EU but EU might need Britain just as much. So what a great historic opportunity it would be if Britain used a Remain to leverage EU into something much better?

If nothing comes from it that might be because the European Union dream might have been taken over by European Union profiteers and, if so, Brexit shines much better.

PS: Wolf writes “the parallel Jeremy Hunt drew between the EU and Soviet Union was so stupid and offensive. The Soviets sent tanks into East Berlin in 1953, Budapest in 1956 and Prague in 1968.” I am not that sure, the Basel Committee, with the enthusiastic approval of EU sent in 0% risk weights for sovereigns and 100% for citizens. These will prove to be more dangerous to the Western World than all Russian tanks multiplied by thousands.

PS. What would Martin Wolf suggest Britain says to the European Union if it backs down from Brexit? “Sorry EU we did not really mean it?

@PerKurowski

The main challenges for Greece are the same main challenges for the Euro and for EU

Sir, I refer to Jim Brunsden’s and Kerin Hope’s “Athens faces challenging road ahead as it reaches milestone exit from bailout programmes” August 20.

The authors summarize what Greece must do in order to grow out of its current tragic predicaments with: “In exchange for a big debt relief deal in June” Greece must “Hit the targets” like sustaining “a primary surplus of 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product annually until 2022.” “Stimulate the economy”, “Fix the banks” “Create an investor-friendly environment” and “build investor confidence by completing flagship privatisations”

What? “In exchange for a big debt relief” That’s laughable! Is it not more the case of cleaning up bank creditors balance sheets, or being able to keep Greek credits on the books, relief? How much would all EU creditors of Greece have been able to collect from Greece? Would EU have invaded a fellow EU nation?

No, if Greece is to have a chance of meeting any of its commitments then at least two things must happen: 

First: The EU must find a sustainable way for solving the challenges posed by the Euro. When the Euro was being launched in an Op-Ed I wrote: “Exchange rates, while not perfect, are escape valves. By eliminating this valve, European countries must make their economic adjustments in real terms. This makes these adjustments much more explosive” And Sir, that bomb, now soon 20 years later, has not been deactivated, and EU has wasted precious time on much more comfortable issues. EU needs to find sustainable solution to it, just pushing the debt-cans forward will not do.

Second: If EU wants to survive and become a Union, then it needs to act as an adult and learn to assume the costs of its own mistakes. Let me be clear, again for the umpteenth time. Had not EU authorities assigned a risk weight of 0% to the governments of Greece, and a 100% weight to the Greek tax paying citizens, then the difficulties of Greece, in comparison to those it now suffers, would be minuscule.

Sir, those opposed to Brexit, the Remainers, should be working at that. Otherwise the Brexiters might soon tell them: “You see, thanks to us, we got out of EU, in the nick of time.

@PerKurowski

If Remainers want Britain back in EU why do they not make the proposals that would make EU more attractive to other Europeans?

Sir, Tim Harford, with respect to the Brexit referendum writes: “It was always clear that asking an absurdly simple question about an absurdly complicated decision was unlikely to work out well.” “Picking a bread-maker is like choosing a Brexit”, May 19

Really? Was the real problem not more that the “experts” expected a simple answer that agreed with their take on an “absurdly complicated decision”? Sort of like what helped Trump to be elected. 

If Britain has problems with getting out of EU, it would seem that many EU nations have even more ingrained problems with staying in EU… having to live under the ever-growing reaches of an evermore distant European Commission.

This week the European Commission tweeted: “Today, municipalities will be able to apply for €15,000 EU financing to install free wireless internet hotspots in their public space. First-come first-served!” Would that not be a perfect opportunity for Remainers to come out in full force with a “See… that is one of the thousand of examples for why so many in Britain went for Brexit”?

With or without Brexit, Europe will remain, and Britain will be a part of it. Britain could be a leading voice proposing the reforms that would allow Britain to reenter EU. And I am sure they would find much sympathy with others equally fed up with having to live under the thumbs of besserwisser technocrats. 

The best of the Winter Olympics 2018 for me was seeing Sofia Goggia singing her Italian national anthem with such an enthusiasm. There was not one bit of Europe present in her voice… and that is an indication Europe is not going in a European direction.

PS. Just in case you are curious, the worst for me at the WO-2018 was to suffer with Egvenia Medvedeva when not winning gold.

@PerKurowski

Anyone jumping ship on the delusion that risk-weighted capital requirements make banks safer and economies better, has a better chance to survive

Sir, Wolfgang Münchau discusses many delusions held by both Brexiters and Remainers, and argues correctly: “To make the best of Brexit, the UK will need to embrace a more entrepreneurial and innovative economy” “An old-fashioned economy heads towards a downfall” November 20.

But when he writes: “For Brexit to succeed the UK will end up becoming more — dare I say it — European”, I disagree.

That because when Münchau holds that Britain “has an entrepreneurial culture to build on”, that is unfortunately no longer the case. No country with an active “entrepreneurial culture” would ever have allowed the de facto anti entrepreneurial risk-weighted capital requirements for banks.

Sir, if I had to choose between a Britain that did not hold back its risk takers, and one that was comfortably living off a larger European market then, if thinking about my grandchildren, I would without any doubt prefer the first one.

As I see it the European Union, governed by unelected risk adverse technocrats, who like old soviet central planners paint from their desks roads to the future, is doomed to fail… and that no matter how much “Universities… work more closely with industry”. In that Europe, the faster you jump ships the better.

If I were a British citizen I would instead be calling out to Europe proposing a different EU. Who knows what answer I would get from Poland, Italy, Spain, Portugal and others? Why for instance should they stay with those who most benefit from a Euro made weaker by the weaker?

PS. For those who do not know me in the context of any European Union and Euro debate, perhaps the following Op-Ed could help as an introduction. 

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/1998/11/burning-bridges-in-europe.html

@PerKurowski

For Britain’s and EU’s sake, Brexit negotiations should not be left exclusively in hands of Leavers and Brusselites.

Sir, most of the opinions on Brexit I have read in FT over the last year, seem to me have more to do with Remainers wanting it to turn out so bad so they can gorge on the “we told you so”, than with making the best out of something difficult.

In the same vein, on EU’s side, it seems to me that the Brusselites want to negotiate more in order to satisfy their by Brexit vote hurt egos, than with making the best out of something difficult.

Janan Ganesh writes in “The real saboteurs of Brexit are its own amateur leaders” November 14. So, if Leavers do not have what’s needed to negotiate Brexit well, as, that does not exculpate the Remainers from helping out in any which way they can… (or move out of Britain)

Gideon Rachman writes in namely: “Imposing a humiliating settlement on Britain might even seem economically advantageous. But the long term political and strategic consequences of a bitter Brexit are much harder to calculate.” “Britain is at the mercy of Brussels” November 14. And so, in a similar vein, the Brusselites need to be continuously reminded of that they could also be hold accountable for a bad Brexit.

If I were a British national and a Remainer, the first thing I would do is to launch a campaign messaging the following:

“Europeans since Britain will remain close to you… and since you could be next, it behooves you to keep an eye on your Brusselites so that Brexit goes well for all of us. The last thing we need in Europe at this moment is a neo-Versailles treaty.”

PS. As a Polish citizen, I would argue: “Brusselites, remember that many of us in EU have more in common with Britain than with some of our other Europeans”

@PerKurowski

Our biggest problem with Internet, Google, Facebook, Twitter, is that our attention span scarcity is not duly valued

Sir, you write: “It is clear that Google, Facebook, Twitter and a few others have become an important part of the social fabric. The dissemination of fake political news around elections in the US and Europe has illustrated as much”, “New realities confront a maturing Internet” September 12.

I don’t get it. If there was any “fake political news around elections in the US and Europe” that was that Hillary and Remain were shoe-ins. And although the dissemination is important the fact is that others produced these news… mostly the political correctness clans.

But let me get to the real issue here. We humans do not have more than 7 days a week with 24 hours each with 60 minutes each and 60 seconds each. That’s all! And social media is claiming more and more of that limited attention span and there is little we can do about it, if we do not want to disconnect entirely.

Perhaps if anyone outside our circle of friends would want to send us a message, like a fake news or an irresistible click-ad, had to pay us something, then we could perhaps align the incentives better. Some could charge one cent per message, others one dollar and perhaps a Nobel Prize winner or an important politician 100 dollars for 30 seconds.

If it were so, many more would think differently about losing their time with their silly useless messages… and we would all live happier.

@PerKurowski

European citizens must solve the Brexit affair, not EU technocrats with their egos hurt by that love spat

Sir, let me address some of Martin Wolf specific opinions expressed in “Britain is incapable of managing Brexit and calamity will follow” July 14.

“Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, patiently explains, as if to inattentive children, that ‘the clock is ticking’.” Does Wolf really think that Michel Barnier has been authorized by EU, and especially by the Europeans, to impatiently allow the clock on Brexit negotiations to run out? If Barnier does that, on his own, to show off his toughness, they will run him out.

“Brexiters fail to understand the weakness of the UK’s hand” “Does that mean that EU understands their hand to be strong?

“Damage to access to the EU market would, for example, be far worse for the UK than vice versa, because the EU’s economy is some five times bigger than Britain’s.” What? I can’t believe Wolf says this. Whatever damage might in fact result, has very little to do with the size of the economy. A larger economy, on a per capita basis, could be just as sensitive.

“The EU is a creature of law. Members would view a [no deal] violation of UK obligations as heinous.” What members, the not so popular EU technocrats?

“The UK government is stuck between a rock and a hard place.” Does Wolf really think the governments in EU are feeling comfortable? They have their own need of votes.

“Another referendum would be dynamite, further aggravating the deep splits over the European issue” Does that not depend partly on the results of the referendum?

“Whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad. So it now is over Brexit”

There I agree. Because I wonder why Martin Wolf, and most other influential Brexiteers and Remainers, British foremost, supposedly, are not out there marketing the need for a very amicable Brexit, among all those Europeans that might wish the same, and who also the last thing they need, is for additional complications in their already hard as it is life.

PS. Did you not see how Trump and Macron got along well even with Trump’s Paris agreement exit?

Per Kurowski

I am besides a Venezuelan, also a Polish, and therefore a European citizen.

@PerKurowski

Should not Mr. Michel Barnier, The Negotiator, ask EU’s citizens how they want Britain to be treated during its Brexit?

Sir, I refer to Alex Barker’s report on “a tough speech on future relations” in which Michel Barnier opined that “the consequences of leaving the union had not been “fully understood across the Channel” and that Britain has yet to “face the facts” on the negative consequences of Brexit “EU top negotiator warns Britain to ‘face the facts’ on Brexit” July 7.

And I ask the question posed in the title because, for instance when in 2013 acting as the European Union Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, and wanting to impose his bank regulatory wills on the US, I perceived him like wanting to play a tough guy, “barnstorming the U.S.”, and this can have unexpected and unwelcomed consequences for both sides of the Channel.

What would Barnier do if on a scale of 1 to ten, from gentle to firm, the Europeans voted to treat Britain with a 2? Would he be capable to deliver?

Sir, again, I also detect a clear masochistic strain in all those Remainers who seem to want Britain to be severely mistreated, just in order to tell the Brexiters “See, we told you so!”

Britain, you should not sell yourself short. You have many many friends over the channel and who want to remain close friends. 

@PerKurowski

Does Britain risk more with Brexit than EU? Not really. So has Britain any special wishes for if EU offers a Remain?

Sir, Martin Wolf writes: “The chances of a calamitous outcome, with poisonous long-term results, are high. Some of the more fanatical Brexiters would appear to desire this.” “Britain plays with fire over Brexit” March 8.

That’s true, but do not some fanatical Remainers seem to wish that too, so that they could later rub in all over our faces their “ See I told you so!”

Now Tony Blair argues, “If our government were conducting a negotiation which genuinely sought to advance our country’s interests, that negotiation would include the possibility of Britain staying in a reformed Europe”. Martin Wolf is also quite open to this idea, although he finds that “in practice, this option is highly implausible".

Plausible or not, I think the idea has a lot of merit, specially because at this particular junction it seems to me that EU has more to lose from Brexit than Britain.

So, if Britain I would ask EU, what would you like to offer for us to remain in EU? But, for that, Britain should know and spell out what that offer has to include, as a minimum. Does Britain know? Who knows, perhaps the Wish List would contain all that which EU also needs in order not to crumble on its own.

Besides, even if a Remain offer is not extended and the Brexit process follows its course, going this route has clear advantages. That because it would define Brexit not so much as a “We against you EU affair” but more a reaction to mutual problems; and that could only make life more amiable between partners discussing divorce terms… that is unless one partner does not want to see any difficulties divulged.

@PerKurowski