The main ingredient of any safe pension system is a healthy and sturdy economy.

Sir, I refer to Martin Wolf’s “It is folly to make pensions safe by making them unaffordable” FT, June 28.

Wolf writes: “We also need true risk-sharing within and across generations, which is absent from today’s defined-contribution schemes”

But current risk weighted bank capital requirements, with lower risk weights for financing the “safer” present, e.g., loans to governments and residential mortgages, than when financing the riskier future, e.g., small businesses and entrepreneurs, is a clear example of how that intergenerational holy bond Edmund Burke wrote about has been violated.

John Kay and Mervyn King.“Radical uncertainty”? Please, give us a more stupid "radical certainty", than credit risk weighted bank capital requirements.

And way back, when observing how many Social Security System Reforms were based on the underlying assumption that they will be growing 5 to 7 percent in real terms, I also warned, time and time again, that it was not possible for the value of investment funds to grow, forever, at a higher rate than the underlying economy, unless they are just inflating it with air, or unless they are taking a chunk of the growth from someone else. In this respect the 'chickens are only coming home to roost'.

PS. Historically, through all economic cycles, there is nothing that has proven so valuable in terms of personal social security as having many well-educated loving children to take care of you, and that, in real terms, you can't beat with any social security reform.

A letter to Martin Wolf in 2015. An essential component of an Edmund Burke intergenerational holy bond, must be the willingness to take risks.

Another letter on this subject sent to Martin Wolf in in 2017

And another letter on the Covid response intergenerational conflict of monstrous proportions, also published by the Washington Post in 2020

How much lower fertility, less children, is caused by “habitual well-being”?

@PerKurowski

Bank regulators have clearly violated that holy social intergenerational contract Edmund Burke wrote about.

Sir, Marin Wolf writing that while “UK has messed up policy in five significant respects: growth; ageing; risk-sharing; housing; and redistribution.” argues that the focus on intergenerational equity is not helpful” “The focus on intergenerational inequity is a delusion” May 18.

In that I do not agree.

For the umpteenth time: The risk weighted capital requirements for banks, that which allow banks to leverage more and thereby earn higher expected risk adjusted returns on equity when financing what’s perceives as safe, like the present economy, houses and sovereigns; over what’s perceived as risky, like the riskier future and the entrepreneurs, is a direct violation of that very core of minimum intergenerational equity that should guide our actions.

And not only will our young pay dearly for it. Those young currently living in the basements of their parents' houses will one day shout out: “Now it's our turn to live upstairs, you move down to the basement!” And way too many of those elder who possess assets, like houses and shares will, when they really need, find it very hard to convert these into the main-street purchase capacity they hoped for.

I pray it will not come to that, but it is useful for everyone to look at Venezuela where their young are now all fleeing to find better opportunities abroad, while most of the elder are stuck in a society that is rotting. And from boom to bust can happen so fast.

@PerKurowski

Imposing on banks risk aversion more suitable to older than younger, regulators violated Edmund Burke’s holy intergenerational social contract

Vanessa Houlder when writing about Richard Thaler’s ‘nudge’ theory and how our hatred of losses affects risk taking mentions: “Investing in a portfolio tilted towards equities makes sense for the young, although — given that share prices can drop dramatically — the proportion should be reduced as people near retirement, according to Thaler.” “Be lazy, the first rule of investing” December 23.

Sir, that refers precisely to something on which I have written to you hundred of letters over the years.

Regulators, with their risk-weighted capital requirements, by allowing banks to hold less capital against what is perceived as “safe”, like mortgages, than against what is perceived as “risky”, like loans to entrepreneurs, they allow banks to earn higher risk adjusted returns on what’s perceived safe than on what’s perceived risky.

With it regulators top up the natural risk aversion of bankers with their own one, and by there doom banks to primarily work in the interest of the older and against those of the young. That, phrased in Edmund Burke’s terms, is a shameful breach of the holy intergenerational social contract that should guide our lives. How our society has managed to turn a blind eye on this makes me, a grandfather, very disappointed and sad.

But all that risk aversion is also so totally useless. Major bank crisis never ever result from excessive exposures to what has ex ante been perceived as risky; but always because of unexpected events or excessive exposures to what was perceived, decreed or concocted as safe but then turned out to be risky, like AAA rated securities backed by mortgages awarded to the subprime sector and loans to sovereigns like Greece.

PS. It would be great if Vanessa Houlder could ask Richard Thaler why he thinks regulators want banks to hold more capital against what perceived as risky is made innocous than against what is perceived as safe is therefore intrinsically more dangerous? My own explanation is that they mistook the ex ante perceived risk of bank assets for being the ex post risks for banks.

@PerKurowski

If you allow banks to earn higher risk adjusted returns on equity on mortgage lending than when lending to entrepreneurs, bad things will sure ensue

Sir, Jonathan Eley writes: “in the UK…younger people especially are being priced out of the market while their parents and grandparents benefit from decades of above-inflation rises in home values. The ruling Conservatives, traditionally the party of home ownership, now finds itself shunned by millennial voters frustrated by spiralling housing costs” “Why Budget fix will not repair market” November 21.

And among the long list of factors that has distorted the market in favor of houses Eley includes: “Mortgage securitisation facilitated further growth, as did the Basel II reforms cutting the risk weights applied to real estate. This made mortgage lending less capital-intensive for banks.”

This Sir is one of the very few recognitions, by FT journalists, of the fact that risk weighting the capital requirements for banks distorts the allocation of bank credit.

Indeed, Basel I in 1988 assigned a risk weight of 50% to loans fully secured by mortgage on residential property that is rented or is (or is intended to be) occupied by the borrower, and Basel II reduced that to 35%. Both Basel I and II assigned a risk weight of 100% to loans to unrated SMEs or entrepreneurs.

But the real bottom line significance of “mortgage lending [being] less capital-intensive for banks”, is that banks when being allowed to leverage more with mortgages than with loans to SMEs and entrepreneurs, earn higher expected risk adjusted returns on equity with mortgages than with loans to SMEs and entrepreneurs, and will therefore finance houses much much more than SMEs and entrepreneurs, than what they would have done in the absence of this distortion.

As I have written to you in many occasion before, this “causes banks to finance the basements where the kids can live with their parents, but not the necessary job creation required for the kids to be able to become themselves parents in the future.”

And the day the young will look up from their IPhones, and understand what has happened, they could/should become very angry with those regulators that so brazenly violated that holy intergenerational social bond Edmund Burke wrote about.

I can almost hear many millennials some years down the road telling (yelling) their parents “You go down to the basement, it’s now our turn to live upstairs!”

Eley also quotes Greg Davies, a behavioural economist with: “People like houses as an investment because they are tangible. They feel they understand them far more than funds or shares or bonds.”

But the real measurement of the worth of any investment happens the moment you want to convert it into current purchase capacity. In this respect people should think about to whom they could sell their house in the future, at its current real prices.

PS. In June 2017 you published a letter by Chris Watling that refers exactly to this, “Blame Basel capital rules for the UK’s house price bonanza”.

What most surprises me is that regulators don’t even acknowledge they distort, much less discuss it… and that the Financial Times refuses to call the regulators out on this… especially since all that distortion is for no stability purpose at all, much the contrary.

It is clear that no matter its motto of “Without fear and without favor”, FT does not have what it takes to for instance ask Mark Carney of BoE and FSB, to explain the reasoning behind Basel II’s meager risk weight of only 20% to the so dangerous AAA rated and its whopping 150% to the so innocous below BB- rated.

@PerKurowski

Lawrence Summers wants to get the quality infrastructure jobs now, and leave the bill to future generations

Sir, Lawrence Summers writes “Infrastructure investment can create quality jobs [and] expand the economy’s capacity in the medium term and mitigate the huge maintenance burden we would otherwise pass on to the next generation” “Building the case for greater infrastructure investment” September 12. 

And since that is based on taking on more public debt that shamefully sounds like: “Dear lets go out tonight to enjoy that great restaurant. We can leave the bill to our grandchildren, as the interest rates they have to pay are so low.”

Summers backs up his proposal with some calculations that start with “The McKinsey Global Institute has estimated a 20 per cent rate of return on such investments.”

Well Professor Summers, and McKinsey, and so many other, because they do not know, or because they are pushing a statist agenda, completely ignore the fact that currently the sovereign, meaning the government represented by government bureaucrats, for the purpose of setting the capital requirements for banks, is risk weighted at 0%; while We the People, represented by SMEs and entrepreneurs have to carry a risk weight of 100%.

That subsidizes the borrowing costs of the government, by the taxing the possibilities of accessing bank credit of those who we need most to have access to bank credit.

Of course much infrastructure investment needs to be done, but, in order for there being an economy that could use such infrastructure, much more important is it to take down that odious regulatory wall.

Sir, again, banks are no longer financing our grandchildren’s future, they are only refinancing mine, yours, Professor Summers’s and all McKinsey’s safer past.

What a disgraceful way of giving the finger to that intergenerational social contract Edmund Burke wrote about.

@PerKurowski ©

Gillian Tett writes of Apple’s $200bn of cash, as if that money was all stashed away in Tim Cook’s mattress

Sir, Gillian Tett writes that Apple could “repatriate some of the $200bn of cash that it stores overseas”, “It is hard to lure companies’ cash back home” September 9.

And Tett indicates three ideas about what could be done with all that money.

“One, for example, is that tax breaks will only be given to companies that raise employment and investment. Another is that the Federal government should use tax revenues for infrastructure spending. A third, is that companies should store some of their repatriated corporate cash in government-issued infrastructure bonds.”

But that cash is not stashed away in Tim Cook’s mattress, it is invested somewhere somehow, and for the government to lay its hands on a part of it, some assets would need to be sold.

For instance what if all that cash is already invested in US Treasury yielding basically nothing? What if it is invested in shares?

And why should “tax breaks will only be given to companies that raise employment and investment”? It might not be the role of those companies to channel funds to those who could produce jobs. Apple, is not a bank!

Frankly, the strategic plan of our current economic thinkers is as lousy as can be.

It states: With high risk weights, limit the fair access to bank credit of SMEs and entrepreneurs, those who could create the jobs for the future; and with low risk weights increase the possibilities of government bureaucrats building bridges to nowhere.

Is that what you want Sir. If you do, I would then have to ask you: Do you have children and grandchildren? “No?” Ok, that explains it all.

@PerKurowski ©

The inactivity and passivity the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee reflects must despair the upcoming generations.

Sir, I read twice your “The Bank of England augurs a year on hold”, and twice Richard Barwell’s “The great Monetary Policy Committee mystery”, November 6.

My conclusion is that were I 40 and some years younger, about to start working and thinking about a family, I would not be looking with kind eyes on the inactivity that is there reflected... 25 bp up or down or no change at all.

But, if I also knew that bank regulations, by means of capital requirements, were in Mark Twain’s terms giving banks further incentives to lend the umbrella when the sun was out, and to take it away when it looked like it was going to rain, then I would really be pissed off. What do these bank regulators mean? Is the avoidance by banks of perceived credit risks, more important than my future?

And from John Kenneth Galbraith’s “Money: Whence it came where it went” 1975, I would quote to those respectable and so political correct bank regulators the following:

“For the new parts of the country [USA’s West]… there was the right to create banks at will and therewith the notes and deposits that resulted from their loans…[if] the bank failed…someone was left holding the worthless notes… but some borrowers from this bank were now in business...[jobs created]..

It was an arrangement which reputable bankers and merchants in the East viewed with extreme distaste… Men of economic wisdom, then as later expressing the views of the reputable business community, spoke of the anarchy of unstable banking… The men of wisdom missed the point. The anarchy served the frontier far better than a more orderly system that kept a tight hand on credit would have done…. what is called sound economics is very often what mirrors the needs of the respectfully affluent…

The function of credit in a simple society is, in fact, remarkably egalitarian. It allows the man with energy and no money to participate in the economy more or less on a par with the man who has capital of his own. And the more casual the conditions under which credit is granted and hence the more impecunious those accommodated, the more egalitarian credit is… Bad banks, unlike good, loaned to the poor risk, which is another name for the poor man.”

Bank regulators do you not know that the upcoming generation is already living new economic Wild West realities, made worse by having to suffer these under the thumb of a West Coast type bank regulatory establishment?

@PerKurowski ©

Martin Wolf. An essential component of an Edmund Burke intergenerational holy bond must be the willingness to take risks

Sir, Martin Wolf appeals to Edmund Burke when stating, “the value of tried and tested institutions ought to guide any Conservative government. The BBC is a great legacy from past generations. It must be passed on even stronger into the future.” “A public broadcaster is the property of the people not the elite” October 30.

Absolutely, BBC is to be defended and those who out in the world have heard it shine light on some very dark moments should be its staunchest defenders.

But that said, I do not think Martin Wolf has really earned the right to appeal to Edmund Burke’s assistance. Burke in his “Reflections on the French Revolution” wrote: 

“Society is indeed a contract…. It is to be looked on with other reverence; because it is not a partnership in things subservient only to the gross animal existence of a temporary and perishable nature. It is a partnership in all science; a partnership in all art; a partnership in every virtue, and in all perfection. As the ends of such a partnership cannot be obtained in many generations, it becomes a partnership not only between those who are living, but between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are to be born. Each contract of each particular state is but a clause in the great primæval contract of eternal society, linking the lower with the higher natures, connecting the visible and invisible world, according to a fixed compact sanctioned by the inviolable oath which holds all physical and all moral natures, each in their appointed place. 

This law is not subject to the will of those, who by an obligation above them, and infinitely superior, are bound to submit their will to that law. The municipal corporations of that universal kingdom are not morally at liberty at their pleasure, and on their speculations of a contingent improvement, wholly to separate and tear asunder the bands of their subordinate community, and to dissolve it into an unsocial, uncivil, unconnected chaos of elementary principles.”

And one of the main components of such an intergenerational holy bond must be, no doubt, the willingness to take risks. That willingness that an immoral Basel Committee has seen fit to restrict, by imposing their absurd credit-risk-only weighted capital requirements for banks… those on which Martin Wolf keeps mum.

@PerKurowski ©