Free markets were set up to go bad, because of bad bank regulations.

John Thornhill writes: “The global financial crisis of 2008 exploded the ideology that markets always deliver the goods” “Three game-changing ideas to shape the post-pandemic world” Life and Arts, May 30.

Sir, that is the problem, because that is exactly what all those against free markets want us to believe. 

The 2008 crisis resulted from huge exposures to securities collateralized with mortgages to the subprime sector in the USA, turning out risky. 

And those huge exposures were a direct result of: Regulators allowing European banks and US investment banks to hold these securities, if these were rated AAA to AA, which they were, against only 1.6% in capital; meaning banks could leverage their equity an amazing 62.5 times. 

Securitization, just like making sausages, is the most profitable when you pack the worst and are able to sell it of as the best. If you can sell someone a $300.000 mortgage at 11 percent for 30 years, which was a typical mortgage to the subprime sector, and then package it in a security that you could get rated a AAA to AA, so that someone would want to buy it if it offered a six percent return, then you would pocket an immediate profit of $210.000. 

The combination of those two temptations proved irresistible.

Should the tax on robots be high or low?

Sir, John Thornhill writes that Carl Benedikt Frey’s “The Technology Trap” informs us that “the number of robots in the US increased by 50 per cent between 2008 and 2016, each of them replacing about 3.3 jobs” “The return of the Luddites” July 13, 2019.

Those who are so replaced must surely have been generating some non-wage labour costs, like social security, that robots don’t. Therefore I frequently pose a question that, with the exception of some Swedes, no one wants to give me a definite answer to. It is:

Should we tax robots low so they work for us humans, or high so that we humans remain competitive for the jobs?

In an Op-Ed from 2014 titled “We need decent and worthy unemployments” I wrote: “The power of a nation, and the productivity of its economy, which so far has depended primarily on the quality of its employees may, in the future, also depend on the quality of its unemployed, as a minimum in the sense of these not interrupting those working.”

And over the years I have become convinced that in a universal basic income, large enough to help us out of bed to reach up to what is available, and low enough to keep us from staying in bed, lies our best chances to find the basic social stability we need to avoid societal breakdown,.

The financing of that UBI could include that those who exploit data on us citizens shared with us part of their ad revenues, a high carbon tax, and perhaps taxing robots and AI (though I do not know with how much)

PS. I case you wonder why some Swedes answered the question that has primarily to do with the existence in Swedish of the magical word “lagom”, meaning something like not too much not too little but just right. J

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2017/02/here-some-disorderly-lose-cannon.html

@PerKurowski

Give us a “Family and Friends' Facebook” and a “No Man’s Land Facebook”

Sir, John Thornhill “Several proposals for “fixing” Facebook are flying around; none looks wholly convincing. Maybe Financial Times readers have some smarter ideas.” “How to fix Facebook” August 6. Here follows a response to that challenge:

If I use Facebook strictly with my friends and families, fake news, or obscene behavior would not be a major issue, since I have quite a clear idea who in my circle would want to engage with that, and I have therefore my own powers to contain it.

The problem is when suddenly a third unknown, or by me uninvited party gets access to my circle, in order to peddle us a news or an opinion, in which he has an interest and quite likely we don’t.

So one alternative would be to have a family and friend Facebook, in which the only thing third parties could do was to advertise products and services, not post opinions, nor of course try to sell us political pamphlets. Would I be happy with such a Facebook? If the number of those ads, in consideration to my limited attention span, were limited to two or three per hour why wouldn’t I? 

Then there could be an open access Facebook to which any person, not a family and friends circle, can subscribe to and that would resemble the current Facebook. A sort of “Throw anything you want at us” Facebook.When on it, we would all be quite clear with that we will be fed fake news, and odiously polarizing opinions, and that in all essence we are on our own, running under fire, in no mans land. 

Would such split hurt Facebook’s profits? Not necessarily but, if so, it would also reduce the general risks for Facebook (and alike) to be subject to fines, since it would be much harder to hold it responsible for any misbehaviors occurring in the No-Mans Land’s Facebook. 

That said, to also diminish the amount of “odiously polarizing opinions”, something that behooves us all, Facebook should try developing algorithms that, using the whole web, tries to establish and then keep out, those who are looking mostly for some monetary enrichment. That could get about half of the polarization profiteers, the other half being of course much harder to identify, since they are mostly looking for political enrichment.

Talking with a knowledgeable friend he expressed curiosity about how much Facebook used linguistic experts when trying to identify fake-news or other bad behavior. He’s got a good point, though my first reaction was, in this world with constant changes in how we express ourselves, how on earth do we identify a qualified linguistic expert? And if Facebook is able to identify a qualified and diversified linguistic expert team, with perhaps Oxford professors, hip-hoppers and young street wise kids, how do you get them to work together and keep them united? 

And how do you in general avoid fake-news experts being gamed? Perhaps randomly picking fake news identifiers out of a large universe of volunteers, and changing these every couple of minutes, paying them well for their few moments of dedication could be an alternative. An Uber for Fake-News hunting? Sir, it’s a hard knock web!

PS: Sir, what do you think Facebook’s experts would say about the Basel Committee’s news: “That which is perceived risky, is more dangerous to our banks than that which is perceived safe”? True or Fake? 

@PerKurowski

Beware, the more you trust data, the more you have to be absolutely sure about how to interpret it, and about what to do with it.

Sir, John Thornhill writes: “In his Alan Turing Institute lecture, MIT professor Sandy Pentland outlined the massive gains that could result from trusted data… the explosion of such information would give us the capability to understand our world in far more detail than ever before”, “Trustworthy data will transform the world” March 6.

Indeed, but that also leads to other bigger dangers, not only because we might trust that trusted data too much, but also because we might not know how to interpret or what to do with that trusted data.

Like for instance the regulators with their current risk weighted capital requirements for banks. These establish that the riskier an asset is perceived the larger the capital a bank has to hold against it. Does that make sense? Absolutely not!

It is not if the perceived risk is correct, meaning the ex ante risk perceived ends up being the real ex post risk, that poses any major danger for our banking system. It is if the risk perceived is incorrect, that the real big dangers arise. And, of course, the safer an asset is perceived, and the more bankers trust that perception to be right, the longer and the faster it can travel down the dangerous lane of wrong perceived risks.

What detonated the most the 2007 crisis? The securities backed with mortgages to the subprime sector rated AAA by “trustworthy” credit rating agencies, in fact so trusted that the Basel Committee, with Basel II, allowed banks to leverage 62.5 times their equity with such “safe” assets.

@PerKurowski

If AI was allowed to have a crack at the weights used by current risk weighted capital requirements for banks, the regulators would surely have a lot of explaining to do.

Sir, John Thornhill writes that he saw an artificial intelligence program crack in 12 minutes and 50 seconds the mindbendingly complex Enigma code used by the Germans during the second world war” “Competent computers still cannot comprehend” January 9.

I wish AI would also be asked to suggest some weights for the risk weighted capital requirements for banks.

For instance in Basel II the standardized risk weight assigned to something rated AAA, and therefore perceived as very safe, something to which banks could build up dangerous exposures, is 20%; while the risk weight for something rated below BB-, and therefore perceived to be very risky, and therefore banker won’t touch it with a ten feet pole, is 150%.

I would love to see for instance Mario Draghi’s, Mark Carney’s, and Stefan Ingves’ faces, if artificial intelligence, smilingly, came up with weights indicating a quite inverse relation between perceived risks and real dangers to a banking system.

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2016/04/here-are-17-reasons-for-why-i-believe.html

@PerKurowski

Beware, data, even when in data trusts, can be exploited in very dangerous dumb ways.

Sir, John Thornhill writes: “A country’s ability to exploit data in safe and creative ways will increasingly determine its success. It is high time for institutional innovation to encourage the process...” “Data trusts can stimulate the digital economy” October 30

Indeed but if data is exploited erroneously that can also cause great tragedies.

For example, even though there must exist loads of data on what caused bank failures, the regulators used data about the failures of the borrowers; something which of course c'est pas la même chose.

That explains how they could risk-weigh that rated so safe as AAA, and which could therefore create excessive exposures that could endanger bank systems, with only 20%, while that rated so risky as below BB-, and which bankers do not like to touch with a ten feet pole got 150%.

As a result we got a crisis because banks held too many securities rated AAA and too high exposures to what was also assigned very low risk-weights like sovereigns, like Greece.

As a result millions of not rated SMEs and entrepreneurs, and who were risks weighted 100%, have had their credit applications denied, as banks cannot leverage their equity as much as with other alternatives.

Sir, I suspect that “The EU’s sweeping General Data Protection Regulation, which comes into force in May and will be adopted by Britain also [though it] imposes strict restrictions on data use, will probably not contain any language with respect to dumb data use.

@PerKurowski

Could not artificial intelligence, AI, sometimes prove more intelligent and socially concerned than humans?

Sir, John Thornhill writes: “Mireille Hildebrandt, professor of law and technology at the Free University of Brussels, says one of the dangers of AI is that we become overly reliant on “mindless minds” that we do not fully comprehend. She argues that the purpose and effect of these algorithms must therefore be testable and contestable in a courtroom. “If you cannot meaningfully explain your system’s decisions then you cannot make them,” she says.” “Only human intelligence can solve the AI challenge” April 18.

Indeed, but that should go for humans too! For instance bank regulators should be hauled in front of a courtroom, in order to answer some very basic questions about their risk weighted capital requirements for banks.

I ask this because I am absolutely sure that, if AI regulated our banks, then at least the following two questions would have been asked:

What is the purpose of banks? And something like John A Shedd’s “A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for” would have been considered.

What causes big bank crises? And something like Voltaire’s “May God defend me from my friends, I can defend myself from my enemies” would have been considered.

As a consequence we would not be having our banks being regulated to avoid the risk taking the future of our grandchildren need, for no real bank stability purpose at all.

Here follows some of the questions that I would like to ask the current bank regulators in front of a court, since they do not even acknowledge hearing these.

http://subprimeregulations.blogspot.com/2016/12/must-one-go-on-hunger-strike-to-have.html

@PerKurowski

I don’t envy editors nowadays being forced to flexibilize journalistic ethics more than ever, in order to survive

Sir, John Thornhill describes many amazing innovations. “Bold claims for AI are hard to compute for economists” of February 21.

Without expressing the slightest doubt about Thornhill’s integrity one could still ask: are these innovations true, fake-news, or just one of those stories designed to sell you an investment? 

Sir, how extremely difficult it has to be an editor nowadays. If you’re too severe with the facts, you might loose the juiciness of your stories that your readers might demand; if you’re too generous, you will loose your paper’s reputation sooner or later. I surely don’t envy you.

But when Thornhill refers to that a “Master Algorithm”, named so by Pedro Domingos, a computer science professor at the University of Washington “will be the last invention that man makes. And that “It will be able to derive all knowledge in the world — past, present, and future — from data”, then I have to reply, as I often did to the former President of the World Bank James Wolfensohn, one who loved to refer to the bank as the “Knowledge Bank”, that knowledge means nothing if it is not tempered by wisdom.

@PerKurowski

The strongest opposition to a universal basic income (UBI) would come from the redistribution profiteers to be substituted

Sir, John Thornhill discusses an upcoming book of Andy Stern titled “Raising The Floor”. In it the author “argues powerfully for the US government to provide a universal basic income (UBI) of $1,000 a month to every citizen” “A basic income — welfare for the digital age” March 15.

Having seen a real fortune in oil income being wasted and stolen away in my homeland Venezuela, I have for soon two decades been proposing something similar… although clearly there we would be talking about much less money per citizen.

In Venezuela, during the years of XXI Century Socialism I seriously doubt its poor got more than 10% of what would have been their per capita share of the country’s net oil revenues.

And lately I have also proposed a Pro-Equality tax on the wealth of all paid out in equal shares to all.

But, when it comes to opposition to the idea, that will surely come the strongest from the redistribution profiteers… those who have a vested interest in doing the redistribution.

@PerKurowski ©

Regulators impede many who represent the driving force of capitalism from competing for bank credit in fair terms

Sir I refer to John Thornhill’s interesting discussion of organizations’ internal obstacles to competition and innovation “The path to enlightenment and profit starts inside the office” February 2.

Thornhill states “As the driving force of capitalism, competition gives companies a purpose, a mission and a sense of direction” but unfortunately “The incentive structures of many companies are to minimise risk rather than maximise opportunity. “Innovation is often a young company’s game.”

But let me pick up on that to remind you, for the umpteenth time, of the nasty consequences of current credit-risk-weighted capital requirements for banks. These allow banks to leverage more with exposures to the safe than on exposures to the risky; and so banks are therefore able to earn higher expected risk adjusted returns on equity when lending to the safe than when lending to the risky. And so the current regulatory incentives given to banks are set in order to minimize their exposure to any “risky” assets, rather than to maximize the opportunities that could easier result were banks free to allocate their credit to the real economy without distortions.

Thornhill mentions: “Innovation is often a young company’s game.” Yes and it is precisely “young companies” that usually are perceived as “risky” and are therefore now blocked from competing for access to bank credit in fair terms.

PS. Thornhill also refers to Herman Hesse’s “Knowledge can be communicated. Wisdom cannot.” In 2003, as an Executive Director of the World Bank, and in relation to the financial sector I wrote the following in a formal statement delivered at the Board:

“As the financial sector grows ever more sophisticated, making it less and less transparent and more difficult to understand for ordinary human beings, like EDs, it is of extreme importance that the World Bank remains prudently skeptical and vigilant, and not be carried away by the glamour of sophistication. In this particular sense, we truly believe that the World Bank has a role to play that is much more important than providing knowledge per-se and that is the role of looking on how to supply the wisdom-of-last-resort.”

Unfortunately, even though the World Bank is the world’s premier development bank, it has not yet explained to the world that risk-taking is the oxygen of any development.

@PerKurowski ©

#WEF, the world needs some ordinary people (like me) to ask the salon experts in #Davos2016 some awkward questions.

Sir, John Thornhill titles his review of World Economic Forum’s Klaus Schwab’s recent book, “The world’s problems solved the Davos way”, January 18. 

And he begins it with: “The World Economic Forum does a remarkable job of forging the conventional wisdom among the global elite. The trouble is that conventional wisdom is invariably wrong.”

Indeed, and that is especially true considering that among the experts there gathered, there will always be too many who, in John Kenneth Galbraith’s words, qualify as those who by pretending to knowledge they do not posses, cannot ask for explanations to support possible objections.

And there are many urgent questions waiting to be made about the nakedness of experts. Among these the following:

Regulators currently allow banks to leverage their equity, and the support the society gives them with deposit insurance schemes and implicit bailout promises, much more when lending to what is deemed or perceived as safe, like infallible sovereigns and the AAArisktocracy, than when lending to the risky, like SMEs and entrepreneurs.

For instance with Basel II, banks could leverage as much as they wanted with OECD sovereigns, over 60 times with what’s rated AAA, 12 times with what is not rated, and 8 times with what’s rated below BB-.

And that of course allows banks to earn much higher risk adjusted returns on equity when lending to “the safe” than when lending to “the risky”.

Why do regulators allow that?

Does that not, by distorting the allocation of bank credit to the real economy, impede banks to perform well what is perhaps their most important social function?

How on earth can something rated ‘highly speculative’ below BB-, be considered more dangerous to the banking system than something rated ‘prime’ AAA?

Do not regulators know that banks already took into consideration credit risk when setting interest rates and size of exposures, before requiring these to double down on ex ante perceived credit risk in their capital?

Do not regulators understand that all risks, even if perfectly perceived, cause the wrong actions if excessively considered?

Regulators know that bank equity is to cover for unexpected losses. Do they not understand that the safer something is perceived the larger its potential to deliver unexpected losses?

Do not regulators and central bankers understand that, while this distortion is in place, whatever fiscal or monetary stimulus they provide will be wasted and not reach where it is most needed?

Do not regulators understand that by favoring “the safe” over “the risky” they will increase inequality?

Do not regulators understand that by doing this, banks will no longer sufficiently finance the riskier future, which is what our young need, but will mostly keep to refinancing the safer past?

World Economic Forum, during #Davos2016, for the good of the world, especially for our young, have someone ask these questions to Stefan Ingves, Mark Carney, Mario Draghi, Jaime Caruana, Janet Yellen, Martin Gruenberg, Christine Lagarde or any similar experts present… and press them for full answers.

Mariana Mazzucato: What need rebalancing are the risk weights: Government 0% and private sector 100%, is statist lunacy.

Sir, I refer to John Thornhill's “You always need the state to roar”, “Lunch with the FT Mariana Mazzucato” August 15.

Thornhill writes: “The challenge, Mazzucato says, is to rebalance the relationship between the private sector, which is all too often overly financialised and parasitic, and the public sector, which is frequently unimaginative and fearful.” 

What is Mazzucato talking about? In 1998, with the Basel Accord, regulators introduced risk weighted capital requirements for banks. Those determined (God knows why and how) that lending to the governments was so safe it should carry a zero percent risk-weight, while lending to the private sector was so risky, that it should have a 100 percent-risk weight. 

In other words bank regulators de facto opined it was the government’s role to take risks, because it is so safe, while the private sector needs to stay away from risks, because it is so unsafe.

What happened? Banks stopped lending to the real risky risk-takers, like to SMEs and entrepreneurs (the real lions); while governments used the regulatory subsidy of their borrowings to finance, not much of real risk-taking, but mostly their political conveniences; and central banks, with their QE’s, bought solely “safe” assets; which injected liquidity to those who already hold assets, like corporations, of whom many proceeded to repurchase shares, responding naturally like kittens to the incentives.

If there is some urgent rebalancing to do, that is to eliminate all the differences in risk weights that lead to differences in capital requirements for banks and that have been imposed by the statist regulators.

Mazzucato holds: “Academics have a duty to use their expertise t challenge false political narratives”. Indeed but that includes her as well, since rarely has their been a more false political narrative than that of a sovereign being less risky than its citizens.

@PerKurowski

Is the economic establishment really dumb or, much worse, playing dumb and conspiring? Draghinomics or Drachulanomics?

Sir when I read “Economists hail birth of ‘Draghinomics” September 7, and see the photo included, I know the establishment is circling the wagons, as all whose members therein referred to are, by defending Mario Draghi, only defending themselves.

The pillar of current bank regulations is, as you should know, the credit risk-weighted capital requirements, which allow bank to earn much higher credit risk adjusted returns on equity when lending to what is perceived, ex ante, as absolutely safe, than on what is perceived, ex ante, as risky. And that stops bank credit from flowing freely and fairly to all the medium and small business, entrepreneurs and start-ups. And anyone who does not understand that the economy cannot move forward without that type of credit has never walked on Main Street.

To therefore speak well of any sort of injection of liquidity in Europe, whether by governments or the ECB, before removing that huge unsurpassable boulder that hinders banks from allocating credit efficiently to the economy, is pure dangerous nonsense.

Yes, the establishment dutifully speaks about needed “structural reforms”, but it never includes a reference to the above, to what the economy most needs.

I do not know really know whether the Establishment is truly dumb and doesn’t get it, or is just making out to be dumb. For their sake I pray it is the first, because the second option would make them co-conspirators against the chances of our young ones being able to access the new generation of jobs, which only the financing with reasoned audacity, or intelligent risk-taking, can provide for.

With respect to the future being sucked out by regulatory risk aversion, and remembering that Mario Draghi was for years the chair of the Financial Stability Board, we might perhaps better talk about “Drachulanomics”.

The problem with Marxism is that it does not have an owner like Coca Cola

Sir, if we look at how globalization like a sunflower that looks for the sun orients its production facilities towards low salary environments and if we instead of the ownership of physical productive capital assets think about intellectual property rights and other modern means to acquire the control of markets that allows for the extraction of surplus rents, well then of course John Thornhill could argue his rebirth of Marxism in “Behold Marx’s twitch” December 28. But, we also need to remember that is we really set our mind to it we could in fact take any philosophers book or treaty and twitch and read anything we want into it.

Coca Cola was launched after Karl Marx death but long before the last volume of Das Kapital was published and it contained cocaine; was sold in fountains; bears very little resemblance to today’s vanilla coke but is still 100% more Coca Cola than what today’s so many Marxism are an original or even a Classic Marxism… whatever that now signified. The problem with Marxism is that contrary to Coca Cola there is no owner of the brand and so anyone is allowed to lift his hand up and proclaims himself a Marxist or a communist and, if he finds enough people to scare and are willing to serve as his amplifiers, then he can bask in the shine of a historical movement and sell himself as an ideologue with a vision.

Of course we all know it would be difficult for politicians to market themselves as brittneyspearists even when such a label could be more indicative of their movements but, as so many real problem exists out there in the world and for which so many new solutions have to be developed, it really behooves us all not to make things more difficult by allowing for the use of misleading labels. Marx missed his train, it is over, let us now please move on.

Thornhill Marxism IPR