What if the State of Maryland USA, where I live, was treated by the Fed as Italy is by its EU bank regulators?

Sir, Tony Barber writes: “Paradoxically, as Italy’s debt has ballooned in size, it has become more manageable. Particularly over the past two years, the crucial factor has been European Central Bank support” “Reforms and ECB help are key to Italy debt sustainability” February 25.

Although already Maryland, as all other US states is already treated quite (too) generously by bank regulators, since it cannot print dollars on its own, the capital banks need to hold when lending to it, do at least depends on its credit ratings. 

Not so in the Eurozone. Though none of its sovereigns, like Italy, can print euros on their own, and independent of their credit ratings, the banks in EU can lend to all Eurozone sovereigns, against zero capital. Something much agreed by and pushed by Mario Draghi.

It’s been hard for me to understand, especially after Brexit, why FT has kept so much silence on this Eurozone’s sovereign debt ticking bomb.

@PerKurowski

What the Eurozone would need a common budget the most for, is to help rescue many of its members from their huge risky 0% risk weighted sovereign debts.

Sir, Martin Arnold reports that Mario Draghi, “the outgoing ECB boss repeated his call for eurozone governments to create a sizeable common budget that could be used to provide greater economic stability in the 19-member currency zone by supporting monetary policy during a downturn.” “ECB chief Draghi uses swansong to call for unity” October 29.

As I see it the eurozone, unwittingly, already had a sizable non transparent common budget, namely that of, for purposes of risk weighted bank capital requirements, having assigned to all eurozone sovereigns’ debts, a 0% risk-weight, even though none of these can print euros on their own.

Some of these sovereigns used that privilege, plus ECB’s QE purchases of it, to load up huge debts at very low interest rates, so as to spend all that money. Now things are turning hard for many of these. Greece was small and walked the plank, and had to mortgage its future. Italy might not be willing to do so. There is a clear redenomination risk, and it is being priced more and more. 

So when Draghi now says “We need a euro area fiscal capacity of adequate size and design: large enough to stabilize the monetary union” it is clear he is very subtle referring to the dangers of the euro breaking down.

But when Draghi mention that fiscal capacity should be designed as not “to create excessive moral hazard”, then its harder to understand how that moral hazard could be worse than that already present in that idiotic 0% risk weighting.

What is clear is that for a eurozone common budget to serve any real purpose, those privileged 0% risk weights have first to be eliminated.

Just like it is hard to see some states with good credit standing accepting a 0% risk weight of other in much worse conditions, it would be difficult to explain for instance to Germans why their banks need to hold around 8% in capital when lending to German private entrepreneurs, but no capital at all when lending to the Italian or Greek governments.

How to do that? Not easy but my instincts tell me it begins by allowing banks to keep all their current eurozone sovereign debts exposures against zero capital, but require these to put up 8% of capital against any new purchases of it. That would freeze bank purchases, put a pressure on interest rates to go up, and allow the usual buyers of sovereign debt to return to somewhat better conditions.

But, of course, that might all only be pure optimistic illusions, and all eurozone hell could break out. 

@PerKurowski

The dangerous distortions in the allocation of credit that risk weighted bank capital requirements cause, is seemingly something that shall not be discussed.

... not even by those former central bankers who refuse to fade away

Sir, with respects to “the attack on the European Central Bank’s by six former central bankers” you write “Only one thing can match the stature of the complainants and that is the hollowness of their complaint.” “The euro’s guardians face a roar of the dinosaurs” October 7.

In their memo we read: “The negative impact of the ultra-low interest environment extends from the banking system, through insurance companies and pension funds, to the entire financial sector. The re-distribution effects in favour of owners of real assets, create serious social tensions. The young generations consider themselves deprived of the opportunity to provide for their old age through safe interest-bearing investments… and also furthers a ‘zombification’ of the economy”

Of course in the short run low and even negative interest rates benefit those who borrow more than those who save but, hopefully, one always hopes that will be made up in the future, by means of increased productivity and economic growth.

Significantly though the “dinosaurs” left out mentioning the distortions in the allocation of credit produced by the risk weighted bank capital requirements, which benefits especially the borrowings of sovereigns, that which FT does not want to discuss either. 

I ask. Where would the Europe/Eurozone’s interest rates on sovereign be if banks, as it was for around 600 years before 1988’s Basel Accord, needed to hold the same amount of capital against loans to the sovereigns, currently 0%, than against loans to unrated European entrepreneurs, currently 8%? Dare try thinking about that. Ask your own journalists to try to answer that question.

And neither do they discuss the special case of the 0% risk weight assigned to all Eurozone sovereigns’ debts, even though none of these can print euros. Could it be because of a bad conscience?

And with respect to the young generation what it really should be up in arms against, are the much lower capital requirements for banks when financing the safer present than when financing that riskier future on which its good outcome the young really depend on.

@PerKurowski

Two regulations will turn the beautiful dream of the European Union into a nightmare.

Sir, Ignazio Angeloni writing that “The ECB houses hundreds of experienced, dedicated [bank] supervisor” blames “fundamental weakness in the underlying laws and the “resolution” framework for dealing with ailing banks” for many of EU’s bank troubles. “A common thread runs through diverse EU financial misfortunes” September 13.

The lack of a good resolution framework is a problem when trying to solve difficulties but much worse is that which causes the problems, in this case two regulations that are endangering Europe and the euro. Seemingly none of EC’s experts were capable of doing anything about it.

First, something that also affects most other economies, the Basel Committee’s risk weighted bank capital requirements. These seriously distort the allocation of credit, and, to top it up, are stupidly based on that what’s ex ante perceived as risky is more dangerous ex post to our bank systems than what’s perceived as safe. 

And second, in this case only a homemade EU concoction, the lunacy of all times of having assigned a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone sovereigns’ debts, even though all that debt is not denominated in  their local/printable/fiat currency.

@PerKurowski

How can Eurozone’s sovereigns’ debts, not denominated in their own national/printable fiat currency, be considered 100% safe?

Sir, Laurence Fletcher in Tail Risk of August 28, writes: “Yields on German Bunds and other major government bonds have been moving steadily lower, as prices rise. That has burnished their credentials… as a safe haven in uncertain times”

Sir, how can Eurozone’s sovereigns’ debts, which are not denominated in their own national/printable fiat currency, be considered safe? 

The reasons the interest rates on that debt is low is the direct result of regulatory statism.

Risk weighted bank capital requirements that much favor the access to bank credit of the sovereign over that of the citizens.

That the European Commission assigned a Sovereign Debt Privilege of a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone sovereigns, even when these de facto do not take on debt in a national printable currency.

That ECB’s, with its QEs, have bought up huge amounts of Eurozone sovereign debts.

What would the interest rates on eurozone sovereign debt be if banks had to hold as much capital against their debts, than what they need to hold against European entrepreneurs?

@PerKurowski

With respect to Eurozone sovereign debts, European banks were officially allowed to ignore credit ratings.

Sir, Rachel Sanderson writes, “Data from the Bank of Italy on holdings of Italian government debt, usually the prime conduit of contagion, suggests any Italian crisis now will be more contained than in the 2011-12 European debt and banking crisis, argue analysts at Citi” “Rome political climate is uncomfortable even for seasoned Italy Inc.” August 22.

“But Citi [also] warns of sovereign downgrades. Italy is now closer to the subinvestment grade rating threshold compared with 2011, according to all three main rating agencies.”

But the European authorities, European Commission, ECB all, for purposes of Basel Committee’s risk weighted bank capital requirements, officially still consider Italy’s debt AAA to AA rated, as they still assign it a 0% risk weight.

So in fact all the about €400bn of Italian government debt Italian banks hold, and all what the European financial institutions hold of about €460bn of Italian sovereign debt, most of it, are held against none or extremely little bank capital. Had EU followed Basel regulations they would have at least 4% in capital against these holding, certainly way too little. Lending to any private sector Italian would with such ratings would require 8% in capital… the difference is explained by the pro-state bias of the Basel Committee. 

And that is a political reality that must also be extremely uncomfortable for the not sufficiently seasoned European Union Inc.

Sir, what will the rest of Europe say when they realize that it was not all Italy’s fault, as it was not all Greece’s fault?

@PerKurowski

Before ECB does one iota more, we must get rid of the loony portfolio invariant credit risk weighted bank capital requirements.

Sir, Rick Rieder writes, “A thoughtful consideration of where and how capital is being applied could have a positive influence that lasts decades. The status quo cannot be satisfactory for anyone hoping to see the eurozone continue as a global economic force in the century ahead” “ECB’s conventional tools will not solve eurozone woes” August 9.

Absolutely but, before having ECB by buying equities entering further into crony statism terrain, what should be done, sine qua none, is to get rid of those risk weighted bank capital requirements that so dangerously, both for the bank system and for the economy, distorts the allocation of credit. 

Precisely because banks need to hold more capital when lending to the riskier future than when lending to the sovereign, and safer present “the return on debt is not matching the risk. So potential lenders have retreated, leaving more expensive equity financing as the sole source of funding. That increases the overall cost of project financing. As a result, growth-enhancing projects never get off the ground, exacerbating today’s negative economic velocity.”

Precisely for the same reason, we are not getting enough of “What is needed is to improved productivity, which comes from innovation and technology.”

Sir, if that immense source of distortion is not eliminated then whatever ECB does will only kick the can further down the road from which one day it will roll back with vengeance on all of us.

My letter to the Financial Stability Board

My letter to IMF

@PerKurowski

If ECB’s original QEs stimuli had not been distorted by credit risk weighted bank capital requirements, there would be much less need for additional QEs.

Sir, Claire Jones writes: “EU treaties prevent the ECB from financing member governments by buying their debt, a tactic known as monetary financing. This rule aims to protect the central bank from political pressure and avoid stoking inflation. QE involves the central banks of eurozone states buying huge amounts of government bonds, financed by the ECB”… [Is QE legal?] “ECB argues that QE does not amount to monetary financing as it is only buying the bonds in secondary markets from other investors, rather than purchasing the debt directly from governments”, “Easing German constitutional court to rule on ECB bond buying” July 31.

Sir, as clearly the intent of ECB is to help financing member governments, and “stoking inflation” a publicized goal, I must say that sounds like a real weak defense.

But be that as it may, the question is also whether QE really helps the recovery in a sustainable way? ECB’s still so large outstanding ECB holdings of European sovereign debt suggest it does not. 

The main explanation for that is to be found in the many dangerous distortions in the allocation of bank credit that the risk weighted bank capital requirements produce.

Just an example, currently all Eurozone sovereigns, courtesy of EU authorities, have been assigned a Sovereign Debt Privilege of a 0% risk weight, and this even though not of them take on debt denominated in a currency that is their own printable one.

The sum of QEs, plus that regulatory favoring, basically premised upon the notion that European government bureaucrats know better what to do with money they are not personally responsible for than for instance European entrepreneurs is drowning Europe in way too much statism.

For the European Union to be saved financial power has to be taken away from its sovereigns (and Brussels) and devolved to its citizens.

http://teawithft.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-still-ticking-0-risk-weight.html

@PerKurowski

Does Christine Lagarde really know about the zero risk weighting of eurozone sovereigns bomb?

Sir, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany writes how Christine Lagarde was interrogated in 2016 about an incident while she was the finance minister in France, related to a vital memo she missed, and which led to herfailing in “preventing an allegedly fraudulent €403m state payout”. “Although spared prison and a fine, she was found guilty of negligence, though the court decided the conviction would not constitute a criminal record” “Lagarde’s lesson in how to deal with imposter syndrome” July 10.

That must have been a very uncomfortable experience for Ms. Lagarde. And in this respect I wonder if she has for instance read what Sharon Bowles the then European Parliament’s Chair Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee opined in 2011?

In a speech titled “Regulatory and Supervisory Reform of EU Financial Institutions – What Next?” given at the Financial Stability and Integration Conference, 2 May 2011 Bowles said: 

“I have frequently raised the effect of zero risk weighting for sovereign bonds within the Eurozone, and its contribution to removing market discipline by giving lower spreads than there should have been. It also created perverse incentives during the crisis.”

Sir, that was eight years ago… and Mario Draghi or anyone else did not defuse that bomb and so it is still ticking.

A zero risk weighting of any sovereign bond, for purposes of bank capital requirements anywhere is lunacy to me, as it de facto implies believing that government bureaucrats know better how to use bank credit they are not personally liable for, than for instance entrepreneurs. But, when it is assigned to sovereigns who take on debt denominated in a currency that is not their domestic printable one, as is the case in the eurozone, then it goes way beyond lunacy.

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany writes that againChristine Lagarde faces a chorus of doubters. Ms Lagarde is not a monetary policy specialist or an economist by training, skills which, in a perfect world, ought to be part of the job description to succeed Mario Draghi at the helm of the European Central Bank.

That is of little concern to me; there should be more than enough monetary policy specialist or economists and, seeing what many of them have been up to lately, perhaps even too many. 

But does Ms Lagarde really know what she is getting into? Does she really think she can help defuse that zero risk weighting for eurozone sovereign bonds bomb that, if it explodes, will take down the euro, and perhaps the European Union with it?

Someone should ask her that. That is many times more important than the vital memo she missed seeing. Why not the Financial Times?

But then again would anyone really be able to defuse that bomb?

PS. Perhaps the title of this should be "Does Christine Lagarde know she might be on a suicide mission?

@PerKurowski

In the Eurozone’s sovereign debt mine there is a choir of canaries going silent but, seemingly, that shall not be heard.

Sir, Gideon Rachman concludes, “Almost all of the modern threats — from a resurgent Russia to climate change and trade wars — are much easier for Britain to deal with, by using the collective strength of the EU.” “Brexit is an idea left over from a bygone era” June 25, 2019.

That is correct, but only if we exclude mentioning the problems within Europe. I refer specially to the sovereign debt bombs that are ticking within the Eurozone, the agents of “the EU’s most federalising project — the euro.”

Yes, that Germany “is stubbornly resisting demands from Brussels and Paris for deeper economic union” does surely not help but the real problem is that the biggest problem with the Euro, is not really acknowledged. 

When Greece turned into a dead coalmine canary, how much discussion were there about the fact that EU authorities had assigned Greece, as to all other Eurozone sovereigns, for purposes of bank capital requirements, a 0% risk weight? And that 0% risk weight was decreed even though all Eurozone sovereigns contract debt denominated in a currency that de facto is not their own domestic printable one.

Basically no discussion at all even though that 0% risk weight guarantees European banks are going to lend way too to the Eurozone’s sovereigns. Greece was small and ended being forced by ECB to walk the plank. But if Italy’s debt bomb explodes would it accept doing so? I doubt it.

Sir, to be a Remainer without requesting from EU a clear plan on how to defuse that still ticking debt bomb that could take the Euro down and perhaps the EU with it, seems not to be a very respectful position either.

@PerKurowski

The still ticking 0% Risk Weight Sovereign Debt Privilege bomb, awaits Mario Draghi’s successor at ECB

Sir, Martin Wolf, sort of implying Mario Draghi followed his recommendations, which of course could be true, holds that “Draghi did the right things, above all with his celebrated remark in July 2012 that ‘within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro’”. “Jens Weidmann casts a shadow over the ECB” June 11.

Did Draghi resolve that crisis for the better, or did he just postpone it for the worse?

That’s is not at all clear. In March 2015 the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) published a “Report on the regulatory treatment of sovereign exposures.” Let me quote from its foreword:

“The report argues that, from a macro-prudential point of view, the current regulatory framework may have led to excessive investment by financial institutions in government debt. 

The report recognizes the difficulty in reforming the existing framework without generating potential instability in sovereign debt markets. 

I trust that the report will help to foster a discussion that, in my view, is long overdue.” Signed Mario Draghi, ESRB Chair

The regulatory aspect that report most refers to is, for purposes of risk weighted capital requirements for banks (and insurance companies), the assignment of a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone sovereigns. 

Though the report states that: “Sovereign defaults… have occurred regularly throughout history, including for sovereign debt denominated and funded in domestic currency”, it does not put forward that all these eurozone sovereign debts are denominated in a currency that de facto is not a domestic printable one of any of these sovereigns.

Since Mario Draghi seems to have done little or nothing since then to diffuse this 0% Sovereign Debt Privilege bomb, which if it detonates could bring the euro down, and with it perhaps EU, this is the most important issue at hand. 

So when choosing a candidate to succeed Draghi as president of ECB the question that has to be made is whether that person is capable enough to handle that monstrous challenge. Who is? Jens Weidmann? I have no idea.

Sir, it would be interesting to hear what Martin Wolf would have to say to the new president of ECB about this. What would a “Do what it takes” imply in that case? 

PS. And when Greece was able to contract excessive debt precisely because its 0% risk weight should not the European Union have behaved with much more solidarity, instead of having Greece walk the plank alone?

PS. If I were one of those over 750 members of the European Parliament here are the questions I would make and, if these were not answered in simple understandable terms, I would resign, not wanting to be a part of a Banana Union.

PS. "The current regulatory framework may have led to excessive investment by financial institutions in government debt." Really?

PS. Is there a way to defuse that bomb? Perhaps but any which way you try presents risks. One way could be to allow all banks to continue to hold all eurozone sovereign debt they current posses, against a 0% risk weight, until these mature or are sold by the banks; and, in steps of 20% each year, bring the risk weight for any new sovereign debt they acquire up until it reaches 100%... or more daringly but perhaps more needed yet, set the risk weight for any new sovereign debt acquired immediately to 100%, so as to allow the market to send its real messages. 

The same procedure could/should be applied all other bank assets that currently have a risk weight below 100%, like for instance residential mortgages.

Would it work? I don’t really know, a lot depends on how the market prices the regulatory changes for debt and bank capital . But getting rid of risk weighted bank capital requirements is something that must happen, urgently, for the financial markets to regain some sense of sanity.

PS. An alternative would be doing it in a Chilean style. Being very flexible with bank capital requirements, even accepting 0%, even having ECB do repos with banks non-performing loans: BUT NO dividends, NO buybacks and NO big bonuses, until banks have 10% capital against all assets, sovereign debts included.

PS. I just discovered that Sharon Bowles, MEP, 
Chair Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee
 of the European Parliament, in a speech titled "Regulatory and Supervisory Reform of EU Financial Institutions – What Next?
 at the Financial Stability and Integration Conference,
 2 May 2011, said the following:

“I have frequently raised the effect of zero risk weighting for sovereign bonds within the Eurozone, and its contribution to removing market discipline by giving lower spreads than there should have been. It also created perverse incentives during the crisis.”

That is very clear warning that something is extremely wrong... and yet nothing was done about it.

PS. And in 2015 the European Commission also described the problem with the zero-risk weighted sovereign debts within the eurozone.

PS. https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/1998/11/burning-bridges-in-europe.html

PS. In Financial Times 2004: “How long before regulators realize the damage, they’re doing by favoring so much bank lending to the public sector? In some countries, access to credit for the private sector is all but gone, and the banks are up to the hilt in public credits”

The empowerment of the Bureaucracy Autocracy

“Assets for which bank capital requirements were nonexistent, were what had most political support: sovereign credits. A simple ‘leverage ratio’ discouraged holdings of low-return government securities” Paul Volcker

PS. December 6, 2025, because of:

https://subprimeregulations.blogspot.com/2025/12/ai-chatgpt-grok-does-basel-committees.html
I nominated ChatGPT and Grok, for the 2026 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.

https://x.com/PerKurowski/status/1996870656542330994

@PerKurowski

There are issues much more important for the future of the euro and the EU than who becomes Draghi’s successor at ECB

Sir, Wolfgang Münchau holds that “Draghi’s successor needs intellectual curiosity and a willingness to admit errors” “How not to select the next ECB president” June 3.

Of course, that should be a sine qua non quality of all candidates. The real problem though is that anyone chosen to become the new president of ECB could get trapped in a web of groupthink, and solidarity requirements, which impede the admittance of the mistakes.

Therefore, before choosing the next president some questions vital to the future of the euro and EU need to be made, not only to denounce mistakes, but to listen what the candidates have to say about it.

For instance if I was a newly elected first time European Union parliamentarian, at the first opportunity given I would ask: 

Fellow parliamentarians: I have heard rumors that even though all the Eurozone sovereigns take on debt denominated in a currency that de facto is not their own domestic printable one; their debts, for the purpose of the risk weighted bank capital requirements, have been assigned a 0% risk weight by European authorities. Is this true or not?

If true does that 0% risk weight, when compared to a 100% risk weight of us European citizens not translate into a subsidy of the Eurozone sovereigns’ bank borrowings or in fact of all Europe's sovereigns?

If so does that not distort the allocation of bank credit in the sense that sovereigns, like Greece, might get too much credit and the citizens, like European entrepreneurs, get too little? And if so would that not signify some regulators, behind our backs, have imposed an unabridged statism on our European Union?

If so, does that not mean that some Eurozone sovereign could run up so much debt they would be seriously tempted to abandon the euro and thereby perhaps endanger our European Union?

Colleagues, I do not know who should answer us these questions, but the candidates to succeed Mario Draghi as president of ECB, should they not at least give us their opinions on it?

@PerKurowski

When are the Italians citizens to speak up against their statist central bankers and regulators?

Sir, Claire Jones and Miles Johnson write: “With economic growth non-existent and government debt at more than 130 per cent of gross domestic product, Italy would struggle without the aggressive monetary easing that Mr Draghi introduced.”, “Italy faces loss of influence in ECB after Draghi leaves” May 27.

Yes, short-term that’s true but, long-term, that’s much more questionable, especially if the regulatory distortions that favor bank credit to sovereigns over that to citizens are kept in place.

Sir, as far as I know, ECB/Draghi has never objected to that for the purpose of the risk weighted bank capital requirements, Italy has been assigned a 0% risk weight, and this even when its debt is not denominated in a domestic printable currency.

De facto that translates into expecting that Italian bureaucrats know better what to do with bank credit they are not personally responsible for, than what Italian entrepreneurs who would put their own name on the line can do with this; something that we all know can only weaken the economy, that is, unless you are a raving communist.

De facto it also translates into that, sooner or later, in the absence of galloping inflation in the Eurozone, the debt of Italy (and other sovereigns) will become unsustainable. When that happens Italy might have no choice but to give up the euro and return to the lira; something that could even bring the European Union down. If so, how sad that had to happen only because of inept statist central bankers and regulators, asked way too few question.

PS. I wonder how many in the European Union Parliament have asked what would be my first question if I had been elected a first time EU parliamentarian?

PS. My 2019 letter to the Financial Stability Board (FSB)

 

@PerKurowski

For banks to lend to businesses it takes two to tango, liquidity and bank capital.

Sir, Valentina Romei, with respect to ECB’s targeted longer term refinancing operationswrites “According to TS Lombard: In both Spain and Italy, TLTRO borrowing corresponds to about 15 per cent of gross domestic product… Yet in both Italy and Spain, growth in commercial bank loan books has been weak”. Francesca Vasciminno, of Fitch Ratings in Milan explains it with “Partially this is the result of banks using the cheap funds “opportunistically to invest in government bonds if yields are attractive” “ECB loans fail to ignite bank lending” April 10.

Does ECB not know that banks in Italy and Spain, which as most banks are not awash with capital to say the least, need to hold 8% in capital against risk weighted assets and currently, because of EU’s insane Sovereign Debt Privileges, 0% against loans (or bonds) to their government?

There simply is no way that a TLTRO, or any other fancy program, is going to sustainably result in more and in relative equitable terms business lending by banks, without the removal of the risk weighted bank capital requirements. One might think that the introduction of a leverage ratio might have reduced its distortions but the truth is that, on the margins, there where it most counts, the distortion pressure of these has only increased.

Sir, soon for the three thousands time, before the insane risk weighted bank capital requirements disappear, there will be no muscular economic growth, which requires risky proteins, and all we will see is increased bank obesity resulting from increased exposures to safe carbs.

@PerKurowski

Should we prohibit divergent perceptions of credit risk? No and yes!

Sir, Martin Wolf writes: “In a recent paper, Marcello Minenna of Con-sob (Italy’s securities regulator) argues that divergent perceptions of credit risk across member states reinforce divergent competitiveness in goods and services. This puts businesses in peripheral countries at a persistent disadvantage, which becomes worse in times of stress.” “The ECB must reconsider its plan to tighten” March 6.

So should we prohibit divergent perceptions of credit risk? No and Yes!

Absolutely no! The existence of divergent perceptions of credit risk is crucial for an effective allocation of credit.

Absolutely yes! Bank capital requirements based on divergent perceptions of credit risk guarantees an inefficient allocation of credit.

The truth is that businesses in peripheral countries are less at disadvantage for their countries being perceived risky, than for the regulators, or other authorities, considering that there are others much safer. The risk weight for the Italian sovereign, courtesy of the EU authorities is 0%, while the risk weight of an Italian unrated entrepreneur is 100%. Need I say more?

Wolf opines, “The painful truth is that the eurozone is very close to the danger zone [as] the spectres of sovereign default and ‘redenomination risk’ — that is, a break-up of the eurozone — may re-emerge”. Indeed, and the prime explanation for that is precisely the 0% risk weights assigned to its sovereigns, those de facto indebted in a currency that is not denominated in a domestic (printable) currency.

We’ve just celebrated the 20thanniversary of the Euro. The challenges its adoption posed were well known. What has EU done to really help confront those challenges? Very little to nothing! In truth, with its Sovereign Debt Privileges, they have managed to make it all so much only worse. Sir, considering that, for someone who truly wanted and wants the EU to succeed, it is truly nauseating to see the daily self-promoting tweets from the European Commission.

@PerKurowski

If Germany’s euro debt gets to be redenominated in Deutsche Marks, what would happen to its commercial surplus?

Sir, Kate Allen writes: “German bonds, or Bunds… are the eurozone’s safe asset… the spread against equivalent Italian bond yields to about 2.9 per cent.” “Tail Risk” February 19.

So if Bunds is the Eurozone’s safe asset, how come EU authorities assign it a risk weight that is just the same as all other Eurozone sovereigns’ debts, namely 0%? And this even when they all are indebted in a currency that is not really their own domestic (printable) one.

That 0% risk weight translates into that European banks do not have to hold any capital against debts of the Eurozone sovereigns… a clear subsidy... especially to those sovereigns most remote from earning that 0%.

So, had that not been the spreads of many eurozone sovereigns against Bunds would have been much larger, and in such case many of those sovereigns, like Greece, like Italy, like Spain, like Portugal would have had to borrow less, and would therefore have had to reduce their commercial deficits, reducing by that Germany’s commercial surplus.

Allen opines: “Investors need to put their money somewhere and [if there are not enough Bunds they are forced into substitutes which then rapidly become overloaded and suffer price bubbles.”

Indeed but when we consider that much of that investment money was supplied by ECB buying European sovereign debt, including Bunds, perhaps we should start by looking there before we might add fuel to a dangerous fire.

PS. Brexit,  the 0% risk weight and the EU

@PerKurowski

Europe, if you spoil your kids too much they will not grow strong. That goes for banks too.

Sir, Patrick Jenkins analyzes several concerns expressed about European banks when policymakers gathered to mark the retirement of Danièle Nouy from ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM); who is to be succeeded by Andrea Enria as the Eurozone’s chief banking regulator. “As European banks regulator retires, six big challenges remain” December 11.

The former Grand-Chair of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, in his recent book “Keeping at it”, co-written with Christine Harper, recounts the following when, in 1986, the G10 central banking group tried to establish an international consensus on bank regulations and capital requirements:

“The US practice had been to asses capital adequacy by using a simple “leverage ratio”-in other words, the bank’s total assets based compared with the margin of capital available to absorb any losses on those assets. (Historically, before, the 1931 banking collapse, a ten percent ratio was considered normal)

The Europeans, as a group, firmly insisted upon a “risk-based” approach, seemingly more sophisticated because it calculated assets based on how risky they seemed to be. They felt it was common sense that certain kind of assets –certainly including domestic government bonds but also home mortgages and other sovereign debt- shouldn’t require much if any capital. Commercial loans, by contrast, would have strict and high capital requirements, whatever the credit rating might be.”

Sir, even though the Basel Accord was signed in 1988 and further developed in 2004 with Basel II, and with which the European risk weighting was adopted, I am sure we can trace the differences between US and Europe banks to these original differences on capital requirements. The US has been much more strict on capital than Europe. In fact the problems with American banks during the 2008 crisis were mostly restricted to those investment banks, which supervised by the SEC, had been allowed in 2004 to adopt Basel II criteria.

In Europe meanwhile banks could do with much less capital, which meant that much more was left over for bankers’ bonuses. In essence, Europe’s banks were dangerously spoiled. The challenge these now faces is having to substitute their equity minimizing financial engineers with good old time loan officers; and convince the capital markets of that. Good luck!

@PerKurowski

An ESM European bond insurance scheme would make Eurozone sovereign debt crises bigger and more likely

Sir, Michael Heise, chief economist at Allianz writes: “An idea that might be capable of preventing or at least mitigating bond market dislocations is a European bond insurance scheme [operated by the European Stability Mechanism]… It avoids the heavy political burden of debt mutualisation and austerity regimes, actively encourages private sector lending and reduces contagion between sovereign debtors.” “Insurance tackles danger of sovereign bond shockwaves” December 4.

Heise explains:“A critical issue would be the setting of the premiums… A simple formula could apply: the triple A refinancing costs of the ESM, plus a risk premium that reflects both the rating of the country and any progress it has made on its public finances.”

It all sounds very rational, and such an insurance scheme would obviously be very useful for some in the case of a sovereign debt emergency. The harder and more important question though would be whether the existence of such scheme makes a sovereign debt crisis more likely or not.

For the purpose of the risk weighted bank capital requirements EU authorities assigned a 0% risk weight to all those sovereigns within the Eurozone, even though these de facto do not have their public debt denominated in a local domestic (printable) currency, the euro.

That stopped the markets from sending the correct signals and helped caused for instance Greece to contract public debt way in excess of what it should have done. 

Heise correctly states: “Set the insurance premiums too low and it degenerates into a disguised eurobond, a bond whose liability is jointly shared by eurozone countries.”

Sir, there is no doubt in my mind that those insurance premiums would be set way too low by any Eurocrats, and so in fact an ESM European bond insurance scheme would act as another non-transparent sovereign debt pusher, and thereby make any crises likelier and bigger. And that’s not the way to go about solving the challenges posed by the Euro twenty years ago.

@PerKurowski

In a “world full of uncertainties”, how come regulators are allowed to bet our banks on the certainty of perceived risks?

Claire Jones reports that Olli Rehn, a possible contender to replace Mario Draghi opines that Central bankers must have “the ability and agility to manoeuvre though the current world that’s full of uncertainties” “Central bankers face a ‘world full of uncertainties’” November 19.

This is exactly what is wrong, they do accept there are uncertainties all around, but then they are not capable to utter a word when regulators, with Basel II, bet the banks on certainty, by allowing banks to leverage 62.5 times their capital with an asset if only a human fallible credit rating agency had assigned it an AAA to AA rating. 

According to Jones, Rhen agrees with Draghi in that “if Italy wanted ECB help, it had to sign up to a bailout programme from the European Stability Mechanism”. That de facto means that Italy must have to walk the plank as Greece did. 

But, I see not a word about the European Commission “Sovereign Debt Privileges”, that which set a 0% risk weight on Italy’s Euro denominated public debt, that which allowed (or in reality forced) Italy’s banks to overload on that debt. Why should Italy (or Greece), in a Union, have to carry the whole costs of a mistake caused by the Union?

Rhen opines “The only legitimate way of making monetary policy, be it conventional or unconventional, is to look at the economic development in the euro area . . . in its entirety”. He is absolutely right, but then the question is, why have EU not done anything real, in 20 years, to solve the challenges posed by the Euro to the individual nations of that entirety?

Those challenges if not solved, soon, pose a real existential threat to the European Union. Does Olli Rhen really believe that completing a banking union would suffice to take care of that?

@PerKurowski

The regulators are responsible for the doom loop between Italy’s heavily indebted public finances and its banks

Sir, David Crow and Rachel Sanderson write: “Filippo Alloatti, senior credit analyst at Hermes, said that [Italian] banks were “super long” on Italian government debt, which accounts for between 13 and 15 per cent of their total assets… Such heavy exposure has revived the spectre of the doom loop, which describes the inextricable link between Italy’s heavily indebted public finances and its banks”, “Italy’s lenders feel heat as doom loop fears return” October 12.

In a letter published by Financial Times in November 2004 I asked: “How many Basel propositions will it take before they start realizing the damage they are doing by favoring so much bank lending to the public sector?”

And one of the most surprising things for someone like me who plays no formal role in the regulation of banks is why the world did not object to the horrors of banks regulators that, with Basel I in 1988, for the purpose of risk weighted capital requirements, assigned a risk weight of 0% to the [friendly] sovereign and one of 100% to the citizens.

That this regulation that so clearly favors crony statism was introduced a year before the Berlin Wall fell is evidence of how much can go wrong, if we allow unelected officials to engage in groupthink within a mutual admiration club.

Central bankers and regulators around the world have, with their especially low capital requirements against sovereigns, been setting our bank systems up to an especially monstrous crisis, and still they congratulate themselves for more resilient banks.

Just like they have set us up, to an equally especially monstrous disaster in waiting, with their especially low capital requirements for banks financing the purchase of houses; which has transformed houses from being safe homes into risky investment assets.

Central banks have of course made it all so much worse by keeping ultra low interest rates, and pouring huge amounts of QE liquidity on this structurally faulty regulatory fabric.

Our banks have been painted into a corner. What would happen if regulators suddenly announced that the risk weight of the sovereign had to increase from 0% to a meager 1%? 

If Italy goes down the tube will financial authorities lay the full blame on Italy, just as they did with Greece after they doomed it with that odious 0% risk weight?

Sir, you know I feel the Financial Times has kept complicit silence on all this.

@PerKurowski