An adequate response to a Covid pandemic needs more views than what epidemiologists and statisticians can provide.

Sir, I refer to “Please put statisticians in charge of data for the next crisis” Sir David Norgrove, FT November 11.

July 2020, I tweeted:

Sweden kept all schools until 9th grade open. Parents of children in 9th grade are almost always less than 50 years of age. In Sweden, as of July 24, out of 5,687 Coronavirus deaths 71, 1.2%, were younger than 50 years.

Conclusion: Keep schools open, keep older teachers at home and have grandparents refrain from hugging their grandchildren. Disseminating data on COVID-19 without discriminating by age, is in essence misinformation.

https://x.com/PerKurowski/status/1287748338440314881?s=20

I had obtained the data for the above from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

October 2020 the Washington Post published a letter in which I opined:

“Roughly 90% of all coronavirus deaths will occur in those 60 years of age and older. 

Equally roughly 90% of the virus’s social and economic consequences will be paid by those younger than 60. It’s an intergenerational conflict of monstrous proportions."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/letters-to-the-editor/would-pursuing-herd-immunity-be-worth-it/2020/10/20/05a4f250-0fd0-11eb-b404-8d1e675ec701_story.html

March 2021 I tweeted:

“Georges Clemenceau’s “War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men” could be updated to: A Covid-19 response ‘is too serious a matter to entrust’ to epidemiologist”

https://twitter.com/PerKurowski/status/1373976328001687552?s=20

At this moment I feel that besides not entrusting epidemiologists I might have to include some statisticians e.g., from the UK Statistic Authority. They must have known it, so why did they not speak up?

June 2023 I asked ChatGPT-OpenAI:

"Suppose a virus hits a nation, and to its authorities it's evident that its mortality rate depends the most on age. In such a case, transmitting data to the population about the total number of deaths without discriminating this by age, could that be deemed to be misinformation?"

A.I. answered:

"In the scenario you described, if the authorities have clear evidence that the mortality rate of the virus is significantly influenced by age, transmitting data about the total number of deaths without providing any information or context about age distribution could be considered incomplete or potentially misleading information”

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2023/06/ai-chatgpt-openai-if-mortality-rate-of.html

Sir David Norgrove ends his opinion with “Churchill recognized the need for high quality statistics to help him run the war.”

In March 2020 I tweeted:

“In February, I visited Churchill War Rooms in London Reading UK’s plans of building up herd immunity against coronavirus, I have a feeling Winston would have agreed with such stiff upper lip policy: “I have nothing to offer but fever, coughing, chills and shortness of breath”

https://twitter.com/PerKurowski/status/1241749198971850758?s=20

Now I ask you Sir. Is this not a kind of document that should be presented to any Covid type of inquiry that, without fear and without favour, really dares to get to the bottom of the problems? 

@PerKurowski

A strong national spirit/character is what’s most needed for any preparedness, even against a pandemic.

Sir, I refer to Tim Harford’s “Is it even pos­sible for coun­tries to pre­pare for a pan­demic?” FT June 24, 2023.

“Be pre­pared! It’s the scout’s motto. But pre­pared for what?” I was never a boy-scout but as I have understood that movement it was to be prepared courageously for the unexpected, not silently accepting a lockdown; and to be able to lit a fire without matches, not to learn to deploy sewage monitors.

So sadly, though Harford does indeed know much of economy, here I think he does not even scratch the surface of what’s most needed, like:

First: The understanding that, for a nation/society as a whole, a response to the pandemic can be much more harmful than the pandemic itself.

Second: That just as George Clemenceau opined, “War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men”, a pandemic is also too serious a matter to entrust to epidemiologists” Any preparedness against a pandemic must include a wide diversity of opinions.

Third: Information, information and information: With respect to this Harford mentions: “Joshua Gans, eco­nom­ist and author of The Pan­demic Inform­a­tion Solu­tion (2021), argues that we’ve learnt that pan­dem­ics can be thought of as inform­a­tion and incentive problems.” No, begin by giving the people full information and then let them understand and decide if and what incentives are needed.

In July 2020 I tweeted:

“Sweden kept all schools until 9thgrade open. Parents of children in 9th grade are almost always less than 50 years of age. In Sweden, as of July 24, out of 5,687 Coronavirus deaths 71, 1.2%, were younger than 50 years.”

“Conclusion: Keep schools open, keep older teachers at home and have grandparents refrain from hugging their grandchildren. Disseminating data on Covid-19 without discriminating by age, is in essence misinformation.”

Clearly information on the relation between Covid-19 and age was available but was not sufficiently provided. One explanation could be that the Covid-19 pandemic hit the world in the midst of a polarization pandemic. 17 October 2020 I wrote in a letter to FT “way too many polarization profiteers just don’t want harmony vaccines to appear.”

March 2020 I tweeted: 

“In February, I visited Churchill War Rooms in London Reading UK’s plans of building up herd immunity against coronavirus, I have a feeling Winston would have agreed with such stiff upper lip policy: “I have nothing to offer but fever, coughing, chills and shortness of breath”

Sir, Neville Chamberlain’s spirit inspired UK’s pandemic answer. Just like he is present in the risk weighted bank capital requirements which incentivize much more the refinancing of the “safer” present than the financing of the “riskier future”

I summarized the result of the above three failings in a letter published by the Washington Post in October 2020 in which I stated: "Roughly 90% of all coronavirus deaths will occur in those 60 years of age and older. Equally roughly 90% of the virus’s social and economic consequences will be paid by those younger than 60. It’s an intergenerational conflict of monstrous proportions."

PS. Sir, if you are interested you might want to read what ChatGPT – OpenAI answered when I asked "Suppose a virus hits a nation, and to its authorities its evident that its mortality rate depends the most on age. In such a case, transmitting data to the population about the total number of deaths without discriminating this by age, could that be deemed to be misinformation?"

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2023/06/ai-chatgpt-openai-if-mortality-rate-of.html

PS. Sir, you should be interested in the above, it evidences how humans can begin dialoguing with artificial intelligence, so as to have a better chance of keeping their Human Masters and appointed experts in check.

@PerKurowski

In not listening sufficiently to the European people, which includes the British, resides great risks for the two technocrats negotiating Brexit

Sir I refer to George Parker and Alex Barker discussing Michel Barnier and David Davis, “Meet the Brexit negotiators” March 17.

For me the best of the Winter Olympics 2018 was seeing Sofia Goggia singing her Italian national anthem with such an enthusiasm. I am sure Europe has not been able to remotely capture the hearts of Europeans in such a way; and the reason for that must foremost be the technocratic haughtiness of Brussels.

I have not the faintest idea if it rests on some real event, it most probably doesn’t, but the most powerful moment depicted in “The darkest hour”, was when Churchill journeyed the London Underground to hear the voice of regular people in the subway.

And that is what I have a feeling neither Davis nor Barnett have done enough of. Whatever the result of Brexit, they might be in for a great surprise, because, much more than arteries and veins are at stake for Europe, including Britain, it is the heart that has to be nurtured and cared for.

What if for instance to Sofia Goggia the relation Italy-Britain is much more important than the relation Italy-EU-Britain?

I have no doubt those who voted for Brexit really wanted more out of Brussels than out of Europe... because that I can understand.

Sir, you don’t have to go underground and travel subways to know what people might want. Some well designed, not biased, public opinion research on the wished and not wished for outcomes of Brexit, in all countries involved, would be the minimum I would have required before any first Brexit meeting.

PS. Just in case you are curious, the worst for me of the Winter Olympics 2018, was having to suffer with Egvenia Medvedeva when not winning her gold.

@PerKurowski

While Brexit is only in the Limbo circle, Martin Wolf seems already convinced that all ye who entered there should shed all illusion and abandon all hope.

Sir, again Martin Wolf writes as if being convinced there’s no life, at least no good life for Britain, after Brexit. “Britain has more illusions to shed on Brexit” December 15.

Why? Of course Brexit is challenging, but not only for Britain. I have always thought of Britain as glue that helps holds the European Union together, so I am sure Brexit must be very challenging to EU too.

What should be done? I would just go for it! Massive government tweeting: “Brexit is not about Britain not wanting to have anything to do with Europe. It has all to do with Britain not being comfortable with the decisions of the EU technocracy.”

And then tweet: If Britain is willing to pay such a large fine for being able to get out of the EU club, should you, as members of that same club not be concerned with that?

And incite the Europeans to take the Brexit opportunity for together with Britain redefining a better Europe.

Sir, I argue this as I am convinced that if you’ve already mentally surrendered, and think you must accept any conditions offered by a Neo-Versailles treaty, then you are really lost. And for many reasons I do not like that to happen to Britain.

Or as Violet Crawley would say, don't be so defeatist, it’s so middle class. 

Okay, I might have gone bonkers on this (too), but let me assure you that Martin Wolf is no Winston Churchill either.

PS. Freshening up on Dante’s “Inferno” I read that some sinners endure lesser torments than do “those consigned for committing acts of violence and fraud”. The latter, according to Dorothy L. Sayers’ translation, were guilty of "abuse of the specifically human faculty of reason". Oops, could that include bank regulators who require banks to hold more capital against what is perceived risky, when in fact it is when something perceived safe ends up being risky, that we all most need our banks to hold that?

Sorry, just asking, I have no intention of wanting to send for instance Mario Draghi to hell. Parading him down our main avenues wearing a dunce cap would suffice.

@PerKurowski

Martin Wolf, a country needs its elites to inspire much more the “possible” than to preach the “impossible”.

Sir, in “Way back Home”, about his World War II days, we hear Rod Stewart singing: “we always kept the laughter and the smile upon our face. In that good-old-fashion British way with pride and faultless grace”.

And then we read Martin Wolf, reciting six impossible, not one possible, and ending with: “The EU holds the cards and it knows it holds the cards…The UK is no longer its 19th-century self, but a second-rank power in decline”, “Six impossible notions about ‘global Britain’’ November 31.

How utterly depressing!

We saw when Holland got smacked with the Dutch disease, and instead of just taking it laying down, they forgot about manufacturing, and decided to become the distributors of Europe… (at least that is the version I have been told)

Just days ago, November 29, in “Challenges of a disembodied economy” Martin Wolf discussing Jonathan Haskel’s and Stian Westlake “Capitalism without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy” was illustrating the huge changes the world was going through, when for instance “Apple, the world’s most valuable company, owns virtually no physical assets. It is its intangible assets — integration of design and software into a brand — that create value.” In such a new world, is really the UK dependence on EU the same as previously seen? Does anyone really know what cards one holds nowadays? 

The day after Brexit, Britain will not be very different from EU, it will mostly be sharing the same old and new problems as EU and, unless Britain decides that is not to happen, there is nothing that eliminates the possibility of Britain’s relations with EU being more intensive and better than ever. A divorce, though it might be traumatic, does not mean the divorcees cannot get along splendidly.

Does that mean the Brexit road is easy rosy? Of course not, but there is a vital need for Britain, and for Wolf, to stop lamenting so much, and get down to work at doing the best, not out a bad situation, but out of an for everyone unknown situation.

Like when Rod Stewart’s song ends with hearing Churchill reciting: "We shall fight on the beaches. We shall fight on the landing grounds. We shall fight in the fields, and in the streets. We shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender." 

PS. To begin with you should reverse having surrendered your banks to dangerous risk aversion, and eliminate the loony risk weighted capital requirements for banks. 

@PerKurowski

Trump might have done Europeans a huge favor by reminding them they have to fight for their own future themselves

Sir, today, May 29, is Memorial Day in the US. That is the day I walk down to the World War II Memorial in Washington, to try to thank those Americans who rescued my polish father from the concentration camp of Buchenwald more than 70 years ago. Had they not done that, I would not be, it is as simple as that.

But today I read Patrick McGee’s and George Parker’s “Europe can no longer rely on US partnership, warns Merkel” all the result of “a new transatlantic rift that has emerged after two days of international summits with President Donald Trump last week.” 

Is that true? No! Even when the partnership in World War II depended on very few, in my mind on Roosevelt and Churchill, any long-term partnership of this nature cannot really depend on what temporary leaders opine. If it did, it never existed.

There are of course general concerns. Like should I ask the Americans in the Mall to forgive Europeans for not showing the same interest in carrying their fair share of the defense load? Like, in these times of outsourcing, are the European and American manufacturing sectors able to respond somewhat similar than America did when it built up what Roosevelt called the Arsenal of Democracy, and that without it would have given the war a totally different outcome? Like, in these times of drones doing more and more of the fighting, are our soldiers capable to keep sufficiently of that fighting spirit that at the end of the day will be needed? And there is more… like the huge public debt loads and other minutia.

Sir, and if Chancellor Angela Merkel is sort of indirectly excluding the UK from the European defense, does that mean perhaps Britain should begin thinking about the need of promoting some English Language Empire as a substitute?

I do agree though 100% with Ms Merkel when she says: “We have to fight for our own future ourselves.” That is always the case, no matter what partnership or alliance you find yourself in. Merkel should reflect on the irony that Trump might have done her and all Europeans a great favor of reminding them of that simple fact of life.

@PerKurowski

Rod Stewart, it would be hard for you to find your way back home, it has been castrated.

Sir, Martin Wolf opines: “The battle over Brexit matters to the world” February 10. But does that matter the most to Britain?

Rod Stewart in “Way Back Home” remembers his childhood with: “And we always kept the laughter and the smile upon our face. In that good-old-fashion British way with pride and faultless grace”

And his song ends with Winston Churchill reciting in the background: “We shall fight on the beaches. We shall fight on the landing grounds. We shall fight in the fields, and in the streets. We shall fight in the hills, we shall never surrender”

But Rod, for your info, Churchill’s England has indeed surrendered to risk aversion, thanks to its bank regulators.

In Britain the banking sector represented so much. And just to think about the reasoned and astute daring of their merchant banks should make any Britt proud.

But you have a Britain that now allows foreign bank regulators in the Basel Committee, to allow its banks to hold less equity against what is perceived as safe than against what is perceive as risky; and therefore Britain now allows its bankers to make higher expected risk adjusted profits when lending to “the safe” than when lending to “the risky”; which of course is de-testosteronizing, or outright castrating Britain’s banks.

Therefore much more important for Britain than a Brexit, is a Baselexit, which means ignoring all those regulators who ignore that: “A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for.” John Augustus Shedd, 1850-1926

@PerKurowski ©

Unbelievable that with so much history, Europe, instead of with a “Bang!”, could be going down with a whimper.

Sir, Robert D Kaplan, in “America is growing impatient with Europe’s appeasement”, April 7, states as a matter of fact “Gutsy is not a word one would use to describe Europe’s political class”. Sadly, very sadly, it is very hard to debate that.

And right below, giving credence to such an affirmation, we find Martin Wolf writing in “China will struggle to keep its momentum”, that “The world must pray the Chinese authorities manage this transition successfully. The alternative is not to be contemplated”; which basically reads like an anxious European convinced that his future is all-dependent on China’s.

Really, if Europe thinks it will be better off accommodating to Putin’s Russia; or if it thinks that its economy will be better off depending on China’s; (or if it feels that its bankers should earn their returns on equity solely with what is perceived as safe), then sadly it would seem that Europe is lost before the fight has even begun.

But hidden, somewhere in its gutters, there must be a reserve of European elites who can understand that it is time to stand firm… since it seems unbelievable that with so much history Europe, more than going out with a Bang! could be going down with a whimper.

Aren’t there any Bravehearts or Churchills in Europe anymore?

And, having observed the growing nanny mentality in America, its elite should be careful too. When drones are viewed as more convenient than boots on the ground, many strange things can happen.

@PerKurowski

Pablo Iglesia’s offer of a 35-hour workweek and a retirement age of 60 in Spain, sounds more like a “No se podrá”

Sir, I have surprised read Tobias Buck reporting that Pablo Iglesias, of Podemos (we can), suggests “a 35-hour work week and lowering the retirement age to 60”, “Spanish upstart party challenges status quo”, November 22.

Sincerely, in a so job starved Spain, that sounds to me much more like a giving up, like lets share the leftovers, like a defeatist “No-Podemos”.

If that is what Spain wants, then Spain is truly in big trouble.

I hope Spain understands that speaking engagingly, emotionally and with great empathy of the problems of a nation, has absolutely nothing to do with the capacity of solving those problems, on the contrary, these are often worsened by experts in verbal populism. (See: Venezuela)

If I was a Spaniard, and a bit similar to Churchill’s “Blood, sweat and tears”, I would now be arguing: “We can (nosotros podemos) and must get out of this sorry mess, and make Spain great again, even if that takes a 60 hours working week and forces us to work until we’re 100”.

PS. When an Executive Director of the World Bank, 2002-2004, it was a great honor for me to be sitting in the chair which represented, among others, Spain and Venezuela.

La oferta de Pablo Iglesias de 35 horas de semana laboral y 60 años para la jubilación, me suena más a un ¡No Podemos¡ 

Señor Editor, sorprendido leí a Tobias Buck informando que Pablo Iglesias, de Podemos, sugiere "una semana laboral de 35 horas y la reducción de la edad de jubilación a los 60", "partido advenedizo español desafía status quo", 22 de noviembre. 

Sinceramente, en una España tan  hambrienta de empleos, eso me suena mucho más como un abandono, como a un vayamos a compartir las migajas sobrantes, como a un derrotista "¡No-Podemos!". 

Si eso es lo que España quiere, entonces España esta realmente en serios problemas. 

Espero que España entiende que el poder cautivar hablando con gran empatía de los problemas de una nación, no tiene absolutamente nada que ver con la capacidad de resolver tales problemas, por el contrario, éstos son a menudo agravados por los expertos en populismo verbal. (Ver: Venezuela) 

Si yo fuese español, y algo similar a lo de "sangre, sudor y lágrimas" de Churchill, yo estaría ahora argumentando: "Nosotros sí podemos y tenemos que salir de nuestra triste situación, y hacer de España de nuevo grande y fuerte, incluso si esto nos obliga trabajar 60 horas por semana hasta los 100 años". 

PD. Cuando fui un Director Ejecutivo del Banco Mundial, 2002-2004, fue un gran honor para mi estar sentado en la silla que representaba, entre otros, a España y a Venezuela. 

http://bombaaaa.blogspot.ca

“A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for” John Augustus Shedd, 1850-1926.

Sir, (and you other there) why is it so hard for FT and for regulators to understand that what applies to ships also applies to banks? 

The motto of the British Special Air service its “Who dares win”, and your own includes “Without fear”… and yet you find nothing wrong with regulators senselessly making banks avoid risks by allowing them dangerously immense leverages and therefore high risk-adjusted profits on what is ex ante perceived as “absolutely safe”… but which of course presents no absolute certainty about how it will turn out ex post.

The risk weighted capital requirements for banks has effectively destroyed the credit transmission mechanism to the real economy of the banks. Sir, why is that so hard to understand? 

FT, are you really proud of having your bank regulators turning your daring British banks into sissy banks?

PS. “Play the game for more than you can afford to lose… only then will you learn the game” so said also your very own Winston Churchill.

On responding to Russia and on Europe’s decline, Churchill and von Bismarck might have differed from Osborne and Schäuble.

Sir George Osborne and Wolfgang Schäuble write about responding to Russia in a “balanced and proportionate way”, “The eurozone cannot dictate Europe´s rules alone” March 28. Is that really enough? Might it not be so that history shows that Europe must respond to Russia in an unbalanced and disproportionate way?

And these two European gentlemen also write that “No one should assume that European decline is inevitable”. No… but it can happen! As long as regulators, with their risk weighted capital requirements allow banks to earn higher risk-adjusted returns on equity when lending to what is perceived as “safe” than when lending to what is perceived as “risky”, its decline is inevitable. In order to have a future Europe must risk continuing opening those risky doors behind which its luck might be hiding.

Sir, do you believe Winston Churchill and Otto von Bismarck would have cosigned George Osborne´ and Wolfgang Schäuble´s article?

Regulators, thou shall not lead bankers into temptations, nor distort

Sir, Robert May writes “In finance too, complex ecosystems can be vulnerable”, October 20. The opinions of a zoology professor should be much welcomed since only a diversity of views could help us to avoid regulatory faux pas of such magnitude as the current. That said there are things I do not agree with him and would love to discuss. 

For instance when he writes that” it is hard to believe anyone could have been so beguiled by mathematical elaboration of silly assumptions as to rate grouped triple B mortgages as triple A”, he ignores first that well awarded triple B mortgages can indeed be grouped in such a way that most of those could be rated triple A, and secondly, completely, the power of incentives. 

When regulators offered the banks needing only to hold a meager 1.6 percent of capital against securities rated triple A, we are talking about Churchill´s initial "Madam, would you sleep with me for five million pounds?”, and not his "Would you sleep with me for five pounds?". The Lord´s Prayer prays for “lead us not into temptation”, but irresistible temptation was precisely what the regulators created. 

Then of course Professor May correctly supports the recent calls made by Andy Haldane in favor of simple leverage ratios for banks instead complex Basel styled risk-weighted ratios. 

But, unfortunately, and as Mr. Haldane, he has yet to understand that the most important argument for simple leverage ratios is that the risks that regulators have been and are weighing for, are already weighted for by the banks in terms of interest rates and amounts of exposure, and a weight on a weight, can only end up being too much weight. 

And that over-weighting ,in favor of “The Infallible” and against “The Risky”, is precisely the reason why our banks have become dangerous obese ingesting supposedly absolutely safe assets and anorexic on the for us so nourishing risky assets, like loans to small businesses and entrepreneurs. 

I am sure Professor May would never have done a dumb thing like that, to one of his complex and beloved ecosystems.

When regulatory madness is just that

Sir, Gillian Tett writes about “When political madness works” October 13, and in it refers to Lord Owen’s neurology paper “Hubris syndrome”, 2009. She also refers to Nassir Ghaemi’s “A first rate madness” which holds that some imbalances like depression, bipolar syndrome and hyperactive manias” could help leaders to better manage crisis. 

Hold it there! Before these imbalances become prerequisites of leadership let me state the following: 

Independently of what imbalances they suffered from, when bank regulators engaged in one of the greatest hubris exercises ever, that of believing themselves to be fully equipped to act as risk managers for the world, they utterly, and totally, failed… and their madness has not served them or us later either. 

Their regulatory discrimination in favor of The Infallible and against The Risky is killing our economies, and there is no way Gillian Tett is going to convince me they are doing us some Winston Churchill good.

And by the way... what about the hubris and or madness of some journalists? Is it good or bad?

But Roosevelt and Churchill would have saved us from the dumb bank regulators.

Sir, Edward Luce, in “The worst is still ahead for Obama’s chief firefighter” May 28 writes “If there’s just Roosevelt and Churchill sitting in a room with a brandy, that’s an easier negotiation” 

Absolutely! And this is what these two great gentlemen would say. 

“Franklin, why do we not get rid of this stupid bank regulations they sold us as being able to control for the risk of default, and which has only brought us obese bank exposures to what was officially perceived as absolutely not risky, generating so many losses in lousily awarded mortgages disguised as splendid triple-A’s, lousy loans to Icelandic banks, lousy bank loans by the Spanish banks to the real estate, lousy loans to a Greek government?” 

“Indeed dear Winston, and to top it up, as I believe you call it, they also hindered our banks to give loans to our “risky” small businesses and entrepreneurs, and which you and I know are the ones most likely to take our nations forwards”… and so… 

“We, Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill, in order to save the Western world, knowing that risk-taking is the oxygen of any development, hereby decree the closure of the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision and the expulsion, forever, of their silly wimpy nannies. We also declare substituting immediately a Financial Functionality Board for a purposeless Financial Stability Board”