Showing posts with label millennials. Show all posts
Showing posts with label millennials. Show all posts

August 18, 2018

For better transparency should newspapers have a section of “Journalism” and one of “Political Activism”?

Sir, Rana Foroohar discussing the issue of ever growing student debt, ends her review of Devin Fergus’s book “Land of the Fee”, with: “Perhaps the new generation of millennial socialists rising in the US should make this the issue they tackle first”, "Slow bleed" August 18.’

What’s wrong with plain millennials? Do they have to be socialists? Or is Foroohar more than a journalist an activist?

Sir, since many years I have been arguing that higher education should be much more of a joint venture between the students and their Alma Maters; and that financing preferentially educational costs would just leave over-indebted students and enriched professors. Just as financing preferentially house purchases benefits those who have invested in houses, much more than those who want a house just to be their home.

Here below are two of my tweets that I think cut over political lines, but that therefore might not be of too much interest to redistribution or polarization profiteers.

1. “Instead of taking on debt, perhaps students should go for crowdfunding their study costs, offering to pay a percentage of their incomes during their first 15 after graduation years. If so would not investors want their professors to have some skin in the game too?

2. “Would insurance companies be willing to invest in the future by financing students against a percentage of their first 15 after graduations years of income? Would IRS be willing to certificate the incomes of these students for the investors?”

I have now ordered, “Land of the Fee” and so I will keep my comments till after I read it. That said I am sure I will again have to ask: Where was FT when regulators risk weighted sovereigns 0% and citizens 100%? Where was FT when regulators allowed banks to leverage 62.5 times only because an AAA rating issued by human fallible rating agencies was present? Where is FT on that all the real benefits of securitization do not accrue those securitized, much the contrary securitization profits are maximized when hurting the most

@PerKurowski

July 25, 2018

More important than giving millenials affordable housing, is to help them afford houses. C'est pas la même chose.

Sarah O’Connor writes, “Home ownership rates for young people have been declining for decades as house prices have detached from incomes.” “It’s time for millennials to fight for our rights” July 25.

Not really so! It is the price of homes that have become detached from the price of houses, as these have turned into investment havens.

Access to credit in preferential terms (like generating for the banks low capital requirements) and the support O’Connor mentions of “Bank of England [with low] interest rates and quantitative easing [tried] to shore up the economy, in part by propping up house prices” has made houses “safe” investments in a turbulent world.

When O’Connor mentions, “Loosening credit standards to help more millennials buy homes would be one method” my answer would be in the form of the following riddle:

How much easy financing has now to be provided to house buyers, only in order to finance the easy finance provided all house buyers previously? 

O’ Connor recommends “It would be better to build more houses in areas of high demand, including more social housing” and to “take measures to boost productivity so incomes rise”.

The first is indeed a sensible recommendation, for all times, but the second requires among other to stop favoring with the risk weighted capital requirements for banks the access of credit for the safer present (consumption - houses) which means de facto disfavoring that of the “riskier” future (production - entrepreneurs).

Let me be clear much more important than helping to give the young access to affordable housing, is to help them to afford houses; which of course c'est pas la même chose.

What I most miss though in O’Connor’s article is a reference to a Universal Basic Income. If the society is not able to generate decent and worthy unemployments, then increasing social conflicts will prove to be the greatest menace to the millennials (and to us oldies too)

@PerKurowski

March 31, 2018

The “midlife crisis” of Generation X or the Millennials, could be piece of cake when compared to what seems to await for them down the years.

Tim Harford, making reference to a new research paper from Angus Deaton, Nobel laureate in economics, argues that “people who would have their wellbeing most improved by a cash injection are the middle-aged, people between their forties and their sixties.” “A monetary remedy for the midlife crisis” March 31.

It is a fun argument for Harford to use when “I will have a word with my father and my children”.

But what would Harford say if the answer he got from his children was: “Daddy, in terms of where you find yourself in your lifecycle, you are the one living most over your means… so no cash for you… spend less… save more (so that you might leave some to us as your father left to you)… and for God’s sake get rid of those risk weighted capital requirements for banks that hurt us so much.”

That mentioned piece of regulation, by favoring banks to finance the present safer consumption over the “riskier” future production, has already placed a reverse mortgage on the current economy, which is jeopardizing everyone’s future.

And also, since it amounts to a gross violation of Edmund Burke’s holy intergenerational contract, I would suggest Harford and his generation begin to prepare a very good defense speech for when they will have to respond to their children why they allowed that to happen.

And Harford, as a retiree, or at least his generation of retirees, will also suffer because, as I have argued so many times, there is no better pension plan than having children who love you and are able to work in a reasonable healthy economy.

Sir, my grandchildren will at least know how much their grandfather, obsessively, fought against that crazy risk aversion. Will yours?

PS. If you dare to see how the elderly could so unexpectedly for them be suffering horrors, have a look at what is happening in Venezuela.

December 15, 2017

Good intentions are not sufficient. Regulators, wanting to do good by making our banks safer, messed it up completely for us.

Sir, Gillian Tett writes a “survey by US Trust shows that three-quarters of millennials put a high priority on social goals when they invest; that is a stark contrast to baby-boomers, where the proportion was only a third.” “Making money and doing good” December 15.

“US millennials are slated to inherit around $12tn of assets in the next decade or two”

In Wikipedia, on millennials we read: “The Great Recession has had a major impact on this generation because it has caused historically high levels of unemployment among young people, and has led to speculation about possible long-term economic and social damage to this generation.

That great recession was caused by the financial crisis 2007-08, and that crisis was the result of well-intentioned regulators wanting to keep banks away from the “risky” allowed banks to leverage immensely with the “safe”. And so banks created excessive exposures to AAA rated securities, residential mortgages and sovereigns like Greece, which all blew up.

And if millennials understood how their future older age could be so much more difficult than their current elders, precisely because good intentioned risk-aversion have kept banks away from financing the risks needed in order to build their future, they would give less priority than baby-boomers to good intentions and consequentially by slightly more skeptical about investing in social goals.

A Ford Foundation has all the right in the world to pursue its goal as they feel fit, but it should not forget that the world is full of good intentions gone wrong.

Tett mentions that “one of Ford’s first projects, for example, will be to invest in affordable housing in Detroit and Newark; the idea (or hope) is that this will provide measurable returns and statistics about home formation”. I hope Ford, before that, analyzes well the prospects of getting jobs there because, much more important than giving someone an affordable home, is to help that someone to afford a home.

Basel Committee’s standardized risk weights of 35% for residential mortgages and 100% for loans to entrepreneurs just guarantees that so many more of the millennials will end up living in the basements of their parent houses… and if reverse mortgages keep on increasing, then without even the hope of inheriting the houses… severely reducing the expectations of “US millennials are slated to inherit around $12tn of assets in the next decade or two”

Sir, the real value of an inheritance only shows up at the moment of the inheritance… something that too many Venezuelan’s that inherited assets there can attest to.


Here is an alternative doing good proposal for the Ford Foundation. Capitalize a bank to hold 15% against all assets, except for loans that have great job creation or green ratings for which only 10% of capital is needed, and then pressure the management to obtain high returns on equity. That is taking risks with a purpose, that could somewhat help to neutralize the distortions produced in the allocation of credit to the real economy by the current risk weighting… and that is something definitely good…I think… though of course even I could also be wrong.

@PerKurowski

April 11, 2016

“Listen, do not forget that you are the millenial here, and so you are the one supposed to know”

Sir, Lucy Kellaway, enjoyable as always to read, discusses the jobs of millenials, and recommends managers to give them “something interesting to do, or at least be able to explain why filling in that particular spreadsheet really matters” “Don’t blame millennials if you can’t hang on to them” April 11.

Though that presumes the manager knows why the spreadsheet is filled out, which is definitely not always the case, it sounds like very good advice, something like “wash your hands and brush your teeth”

But if I was a manager confronting a recently hired unknown millenial, one of those who can find it interesting to spend hours on what seems utterly un-interesting actvities to me, I would suggest a more forthright approach:

“Look here young friend, I am giving you these spreadsheets to fill in. Try to figure why, and if you in the process find that something better could be done, tell me. Do not forget that you are the millenial here.” 

@PerKurowski ©