Nial Fergusson, do not blame Keynes, Keynesian economists do not give Keynesian policies a fair chance to work.

Sir, Niall Ferguson holds that Keynesians have lots of egg on their face after the elections in the UK where the conservatives won, by a lot “Labour should blame Keynes for their election defeat” May 11.

Indeed they should have, but the reason for it has little to do with what Ferguson thinks or wants to imply.

No Keynesian policy on earth, could deliver real positive and sustainable results, when bank regulations impede the liquidity their spending policies generate, to reach those who could make the most of it.

In 1988 with the Basel Accord, sort of when everyone was busy attacking the Washington Consensus for its private sector bias, the regulators (for ideological reasons), for purposes of defining the equity banks had to hold against assets, decided that the risk weight of the infallible sovereign was to be zero percent, while the risk weight for lending to the fallible citizen was to be 100%.

With that the regulators privileged government bureaucrats’ access to bank credit over the others in the markets.

Later, in 2006, with Basel II, they “half mended” it, by stating that some AAArisktocrats were good enough to have a risk weight of only 20%.

And so then everyone met happily in Davos, where of course no lowly “risky” SMEs are invited.

And here we are with for instance Paul Krugman preaching us about inequality, but keeping mum on the fact that the risk-weighted equity requirements for banks, by killing the opportunities of the risky to access bank credit in fair terms, is a great inequality driver.

The real problem might be that many of current Keynesians want much more statist governments than Keynes ever considered, and so the zero percent risk weighting of sovereigns, attracts them too much… and so they do not want to even give Keynesianism a fair chance to work.

Of course, the free-market defendants who failed to see how distorted the allocation of bank credit has become; or who do not want to cross banker friends who just adore the concept of being able to leverage immensely what is ex ante perceived as safe, and therefore keep silence on all this, will also end up having egg on their faces. (You too Niall Ferguson?) 

PS. How can you give a zero credit risk weight to a debtor who, right in your face, is pursuing financial repression, inflation (just another kind of haircut)?

@PerKurowski

If Peter Clarke is right, Keynes would be outraged about capital requirements for banks based on perceived risk.

Sir I do not know enough of economic history, or of Lord Keynes, to know whether Peter Clarke is correct when he says that Keynes “would have recognised the long gradual deterioration in income equality, and its consequences. He would also have been concerned about the redistributive effects of today’s extreme monetary policy. He would have recognised that today’s financial system is ineffective at channelling savings towards long-term productive investment and is configured more towards rent extraction”, “Reach of Keynes’ thinking deserves to be appreciated” October 2.

But, if that is what Keynes would opine, then I can swear he would be as outraged as I am, about the stupid capital requirements for banks based on ex ante perceived risk, and which allow for much higher risk adjusted returns on bank equity when lending to “The Infallible”, like sovereigns, housing and AAAristocracy, than when lending to “The Risky”, like the medium and small businesses, the entrepreneurs and the startups.

“Radical uncertainty” indicates regulators should stay away from “Bayesian subjective probabilities”

Sir, John Kay in “The other multiplier effect, or Keynes’s view of probability”, August 15, writes that “the largest and most famous Dutch book… a set of choices such that a seemingly attractive selection from it is certain to lose money for the person who makes the selection… would be the collection of ingenious structures products RBS acquired when it bought ABN Amro”. 

Forget it! That book, as a Dutch book, does not even come close to Basel II regulations. Those regulations, which offered a world without bank crises, set the bank capital requirements lower when the perceived risk were lower, and thereby doomed the banks to overdose on perceived risks, and create extremely dangerous and obese exposures to what was, and is, officially deemed as “absolutely not risky”. 

Kay mentions the possibility that one has to use “Bayesian subjective probabilities… because if they did not, people would devise schemes that made money at their expense”. That might or might not be true, but, at least, when it comes to bank regulators, the best is for them not even to engage in any sort of risk arbitration. One single capital requirement for any bank asset is the only rational response to any “radical uncertainty”.

Indeed what would Keynes be saying?

Sir we must be grateful for Peter Clarke’s very enjoyable “In the long run we are all dependent on Keynes” January 8, not the least for the timely reminder that “the General Theory had advocated regulating economy through investment, not consumption”.

It would be interesting to speculate about whether Keynes would have repeated his “I was the only non-Keynesian there” if witnessing how his name is now used to support the build-up of US public debt in order to create bailouts and stimulus packages to save the world from a monstrous depression, given the extremely high stake of said debt becoming so unsustainably large to cause the mother of all meltdowns.

Austrian surgery or Keynesian chemotherapy?

No Sir FT should not get away answering “Is your recession really necessary? January 2009 by painting a simplistic picture of some evil Austrian forces wanting to castigate the world by dragging down the economy into the doldrums of a severe and disciplining recession and an enlightened Englishman who understood that “in a crisis, demand would not necessarily fall back to the sustainable level”. What is happening is much too serious for that.

Our current alternatives are more like having to choose between Austrian surgery and Keynesian chemotherapy. Only as an example I would much prefer to cut out all the financial fatty tissue that was created like by magic when the subprime mortgages moved up to the Triple-A world, than use a general chemotherapy that can leave us so weak with masses of public debt and that could have us fall into a final coma.

Having said that, before any type of intervention, the patient needs to recover the will to live and that depends on us being able to explain to him in a credible way the full extent of his illness and its treatment. As an economic doctor I would start telling the patient about the sacrifices he will have to make, for instance the higher taxes he will have to pay, because the whole story of stimulus packages, tax rebates and expecting rational behaviour modification from the same financial regulators that got us into this mess, sounds too much of a tall tale to inspire any sort of confidence.

If I was Obama I would in the first 100 minutes of my presidency use my political capital to announce a one dollar per gallon of gas tax. That would absolutely sting a lot but that would also help the patient to believe that there is a rational way out and that someone is willing to go down that path.

Let us now pray this was the last waking up from a wish-dream for a while

Sir Martin Wolf rightly calls out the fact that “The world wakes from the wish-dream of decoupling” October 22, although, sincerely, I have yet to meet anyone that was not long in emerging markets that really believed in that.

But when Martin Wolf, sounding a bit like a financial policy macho-man, says “this requires Keynesian remedies. Budget deficits will end up at levels previously considered unimaginable. So be it.” we must now pray for not having to wake up from another wish-dream where budget deficits were decoupled from the lack of confidence in currencies and the consequential inflation.

I would be much more comfortable recognizing that there are some real limits to budget deficits and thereby force the need to assign priorities intelligently to what can be done.

In doing so, I would absolutely agree with Martin Wolf that one of the first things to be done has to be “enhanced procedures for restructuring debts of bankrupt households” since the only way we could be sure of that what in that area is being done is sufficient, is that whatever remains in the mortgages duly merit the triple-A rates previously wrongfully awarded.