Politifact, Snopes, AFP, BFMTV, L’Express, Le Monde and Correctiv. Please check this fact for us! Pro-bono of course.

Sir, Madhumita Murgia reports “Facebook plans to pay fact-checkers to monitor news on its platforms in response to sustained criticism that it has not been doing enough to crack down on fake stories... So far, it has formed partnerships with third parties such as Politifact, Snopes, AFP, BFMTV, L’Express, Le Monde and Correctiv. “Facebook fights back against fake news” April 7.

Do I have a fact checking for these organizations to do? I mean pro bono, I am no Facebook.

Current bank regulators, the Basel Committee, in order to set the capital requirements for banks, so that we can all feel calm about the stability of our banking system, have for instance risk weighted those rated AAA to AA with 20%, and those rated below BB- with 150%.

I am absolutely sure no bank crisis has detonated because of major bank exposures to something that was perceived ex ante as risky so as to merit something like a below BB- rating. I am absolutely sure that if a bank crisis has been caused by something connected to the perception of risks, that has been because of excessive exposures to something ex ante perceived as very safe, like a AAA rated borrower, but that ex post turned out to be very risky.

Could you check that fact for us? Risk-weighing this way means that what is rated AAA has now more and cheaper access to bank credit than was the norm in the absence of such regulations; and that what is rated below BB- has now less and more expensive access to bank credit than usual. And that makes no sense.

In terms of how Mark Twain put it, this signifies that the banker is now even more willing than usual to lend you the umbrella when the sun shines, and even faster than usual to want to take that umbrella back as soon as it looks it could rain.

While checking these facts, if you happen to meet a bank regulator, I would appreciate it if you could try to get some answers from him on the questions I link to below. Though I have tried for years, I have had no such luck.

http://subprimeregulations.blogspot.com/2016/12/must-one-go-on-hunger-strike-to-have.html

@PerKurowski

When facts do not make those who should be the most curious curious, like FT journalists, what are we to do?

Sir, Tim Harford discusses “agnotology”, a term coined by Robert Proctor, a historian at Stanford University, which refers to the study of how ignorance is deliberately produced. “The problem with FACTS”, March 10.

Harford writes: “Facts rarely stand up for themselves – they need someone to make us care about them, to make us curious… Mainstream journalists, too, are starting to embrace the idea that lies or errors should be prominently identified… [but] We journalists and policy wonks can’t force anyone to pay attention to the facts... Curiosity is the seed from which sensible democratic decisions can grow.”

Indeed but here follows two facts about which I have written to the Financial Times more than 2.500 letters over the last decade but that has not been able to raise its curiosity or perhaps belong to the group of the facts that shall not be checked.

First fact: Regulators, with their Basel II of 2004, for the purpose of setting capital requirements for banks, assigned a risk weight of 20% to what was rated AAA to AA and one of 150% to what carried a below BB-rating.

A below BB-rating ex ante indicates a very high risk, something which precisely make clients so rated to signify no risk at all for the banking system.

What is rated AAA to AA ex ante indicates a very low risk, something that precisely induces banks to generate those excessive exposures capable of causing a major crisis, if ex post it turns out to really be very risky.

Second fact: By allowing for different capital requirements, the regulators allow banks to leverage differently their capital with different assets. That produces expected risk adjusted returns on equity that are quite different from what would have been the case in the absence of such regulations; something which clearly must distort the allocation of bank credit to the real economy.

Harford mentions the presence of “motivated reasoning” distraction, and lies can help to cloud or even make impossible the understanding of truths. In the case of bank regulations and the 2007-08 crisis, two that stand out.

Motivated reasoning: we do not want banks to fail. Just the phrase “risk weighted capital requirements for banks”, if compared to “not risk weighted capital requirements for banks”, indicates something so much more prudent… and therefore likable. It is hard for most to understand that risk weighing can in essence mean nothing if the risk weights are wrong, as they sometimes are; and also that since the clearing for risks already occurs by means of sizes of exposures and risk premiums, the doubling down on the same perceptions, now in the capital, makes it impossible to adjust for risks… even if the risks are ex ante perfectly perceived.

Distraction: derivatives. Does it not sound so delightfully sophisticated when we speak of the dangers of derivatives? How can anyone dare questioning the expertise of someone capable of that?

A qualified lie: deregulation of banks. Banks were effectively somewhat deregulated with the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1998. But that “deregulation” was really insignificant when compared to the imposition of such intrusive and distortive regulation as the risk weighted capital requirements for banks. Never ever have banks been so miss-regulated as now.

Harford writes: “Agnotology has never been more important” “We live in a golden age of ignorance,” says Proctor today. “And Trump and Brexit are part of that.”. To this I would have to add, Bank Regulations!

So Mr Undercover Economist, and you too Sir, why not begin by some fact checking on your own fact avoidance.

PS: Harford quotes Molière “A learned fool is more foolish than an ignorant one.” George Orwell also wrote in “Notes on Nationalism”: “one has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool.” 

And according to Edward Dolnick, Francis Fukuyama has heard Daniel Moynihan opining: “There are some mistakes it takes a Ph.D. to make”

@PerKurowski

Current bank regulating technocrats posing as scientifically knowledgeable are just vulgar impostors.

Sir, Anjana Ahuja refers to how Galileo was imprisoned by the Roman Catholic Church for his conviction that the Earth went round the Sun, and warns scientists may well feel the heat from those in power once again, referring here clearly to Donald Trump. “Echoes of Galileo in the populist retreat from reason” December 7.

Sir, careful there, often those in power masquerade as scientists. For instance bank regulators of the Basel Committee and the Financial Stability Board, behave much more like theologians than the scientists they purport themselves to be. Their creed is: Assets perceived ex ante perceived as risky are ex post risky, and so banks should therefore hold more capital against these.

And if a third, or much lesser class Galileo like me, dares to argue that what is perceived as risky, becomes less dangerous precisely because of that ex ante perception; while what is perceived as safe becomes more dangerous precisely because of that ex ante perception, then he has to be ignored and his questions should not be answered. 

Sir, you want further proof about these fake scientists? Ahuja writes: “Why is science under siege? One possible explanation is that it favours objective evidence over subjective experience.” Well, the Basel Committee never even researched in order obtain objective evidence of what has caused all previous major bank crises, before adopting their own subjectivity as their guiding light.

Lately I have been wondering whether I need to go on a hunger strike or take similar extreme actions, in order to get some response to some very basic questions from the impostors. But perhaps I should refrain from doing so, since I could be burned at the stake… and without the science respectful FT, perhaps also feeling alleviated, not even reporting on the incident.

Like Martin Luther I might just nail my questions on some Church door in Basel, and take it from there.

PS. Let us not forget that Galileo's views were at one moment considered "alternative facts" or "fake news"

@PerKurowski