Mr. Martin Wolf, what do you mean, is liberalism not broken?

Sir, I refer to “Liberalism is battered but not yet broken” Martin Wolf, FT January 10, 2024.

Since 1988, with Basel I, non-elected by the citizens bank regulators, with risk weighted bank capital requirements, in the name of making our banks safe, have allowed themselves to distort the allocation of bank credit to the economy. 

Wolf opines: “What liberals share is trust in human beings to decide things for themselves.” So, Mr. Wolf, why have you been silent on this clear breach of free market liberalism?

These days, in reference to the farmer’s protests in Berlin I have tweeted/Xd: “Would now John F. Kennedy have wanted to deliver his 1963 ‘Ich bin ein Berliner’ speech? - If the Berlin Wall was still up, would Ronald Reagan now have needed to tell Putin, ‘Tear down this wall’?”

My answer in both cases is NO! US and Russia – West and East Berlin, have been too long exposed to communistic weakening. But it’s coming to an end. More and more nations now need more public debt in order to service their current public debts, and are thereby, de facto, becoming zombie nations.

I pray someone with real political standing would dare to stand up and order: “Basel Committee, tear down your regulations.” I fear that might not happen until this “wall” has crumbled on its own. Those regulations have empowered bureaucracy autocracies, and way too many want to be members or beneficiaries of it. And by the way, if they speak up, they risk not being invited to the World Economic Forums in Davos; and we would not want to risk that, would we?

Sir, how can we make sure to capitalize on the opportunity of artificial intelligence helping to empower a citizens’ democracy? I mean before AI regulators decide to send it to Gulag too.

PS. I tweeted - Xd: "If there’s anything that could help focus on what has happened in the world, and on what’s going on, that is to have a record of all those who, since 1971, have assisted World Economic Forum #WEF meetings in #Davos."

Bank systems’ “Fifth Risk”: When shit really hits the fan, banks will be holding especially little capital.

Sir, Brooke Masters reviews Michael Lewis’ “The Fifth Risk”, a book that got its titled when John MacWilliams, a former Goldman Sachs investment banker told the author about the “fifth risk”, referring to ‘project management’, the risk society runs when it falls into the habit of responding to long-term risks with short-term solutions.” “Why boring government matters”, November 3.

Well-intentioned bank regulators, wanting to make our bank system safer, and came up with risk weighted capital requirements based on the perceived credit risks. If the perceived credit risks (those that bankers saw and used to adjust to with size of exposure and risk premiums) do not represent the most immediate short-term outlook on risk for banks what does? 

The real long-term risk is obviously that something that was ex ante perceived as safe, and with which banks could therefore build up large exposures, suddenly, ex post turned out very risky. The regulators with their short-term solutions only guaranteed that when shit really hit the fan, banks would stand naked with especially little capital.

Brooke Masters quotes Ronald Reagan with “the nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help’ ”.

Indeed! Just like when regulators told us “we credit rating agencies know all about risks so, with our regulations, we will make your bank systems safer”. As a result they gave us the 2008 crisis, way too much credit for house purchases, and mountains of 0% risk weighted sovereign debt around the world. If only they had stayed home.

Sir, “good boring government” is indeed needed, but beware, few things as dangerous as bored bureaucrats… they’re truly frightening.

@PerKurowski

Because of distortive bank regulations, current tax cuts will deliver much less growth than what could be expected.

Sir, I refer to George Magnus’ “New regime’s growth pledge poses challenge for the US central bank” December 14.

In it, like many other commentators, Magnus draws comparisons between current Trump/Steven Mnuchin economic plans, with the lowering of taxes, and the Reagan years. He find several differences, though again like most or perhaps all commentators, he ignores the fact that during Reagan years, there was no such thing as risk weighted capital requirements for banks that distorted the allocation of credit.

That regulation stops us from getting the most bang out for any stimulus, be it tax cuts, QEs, fiscal deficits, low interest rates, etc.

If adjusted for it, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s already worrying estimates would even seem too optimistic.

What is truly harrowing though, is that those distortions are not even discussed, as if these did not exist, as if these should not be named.

For instance I have been unable for more than a decade to get straight answers from the regulators to some very basic questions, zero contestability; and Sir, FT’s Establishment has also refused to ignore these questions, notwithstanding my soon 2.500 letters to you on “subprime bank regulations”

@PerKurowski

For tax cuts to work, regulations that distort the allocation of bank credit to real economy must first be removed

Sir, I refer to Chris Giles interview of Arthur Laffer “Reagan’s tax guru predicts US nirvana” December 8

Let me be brief. Reagan ended his presidency on January 20, 1989. The Basel Accord, with its risk weighted capital requirements, was approved in 1988 but entered into real effect in 1992. Basel II, with its even more distortionary risk weighting is dated June 2004.

I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade but, whether it is by tax cuts, fiscal deficits, QEs, low interest rates, or by any other thinkable stimulus, for these to work their way entirely into the real economy, the distortions in the allocation of bank credit must be removed.

Sir, as is, tax cuts will not produce what Laffer and other expect, and so resulting public deficits would increase dangerously the levels of public debt.

PS. Let me also invoking the spirit of Charlton Heston in Planet of the Apes: “Keep your stinking monkey paws off our banks, you dirty regulatory ape.

PS. Must one go on a hunger strike to have the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision answer some very basic questions?

@PerKurowski

What would Luke Johnson, Richard Branson, President Reagan and Lord Keynes say about Basel Committee’s risk aversion?

Sir Luke Johnson refers to that if entrepreneurs such as the Virgin founder, Richard Branson “did not take big gambles, society as a whole would be worse off” “The Virgin Galactic crash and the need for risk-takers” November 5.

And Johnson also writes: “pride and arrogance are required if the status quo is to be challenged with radical new ideas; after all, weak characters give up too soon – harried by regulators, safety obsessives and the overcautious. Change is never easy, but it must be embraced unless we want a life of stagnation and retreat.”

And he quotes President Reagan in that: “The future doesn’t belong to the fainthearted; it belongs to the brave”, and John Maynard Keynes in that: “If the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism falters, leaving us to depend on nothing but a mathematical expectation, enterprise will fade and die.”

Well contrast all that to the fact that current bank regulators, with their credit-risk-weighted equity requirements, are telling the banks that if they lend to what is perceived as absolutely safe, then they will be able to earn much higher risk adjusted returns on equity than if lending to what is perceived as risky.

I am doing what I can, but FT, how is it that you cannot find it in yourselves to protest regulations that slowly but surely, creating artificial risk-aversion, are killing our economies and perhaps even our civilization?

Mr. Regulator, tear down this Basel wall

Sir, John Kay writes “Without ringfencing it will soon be a case of ‘here we go again’, September 14. May I suggest that instead of thinking about ringfencing, we should be thinking more about tearing down walls. 

Basel bank regulations built a wall that, with its capital requirements, arbitrarily discriminates in favor of what is dangerously perceived as “not-risky” and against what wimpy regulators consider the dangerous “risky”. 

This wall drove the world to a crisis, by means of generating excessive bank exposures to what was ex-ante perceived as “not-risky”, and is stopping the world from getting out of it, by making it harder to enlist the help of the “risky”, the small businesses and entrepreneurs. 

Therefore, for the benefit of the future, Mr. Regulator, tear down this Basel wall!