October 28, 2008

When in a panic, think, for a millisecond at least!

Jeffrey Sachs tells us: 1.- Extend swap lines to all main emerging markets. 2.- Have IMF extend low-conditionality loans to all countries that request it. 3.- Discourage big banks from withdrawing credit lines from overseas operations. 4.- China, Japan, and North Korea should undertake a coordinated macroeconomic expansion. 5.- Middle East needs to recycle all their cash. 6.- US and Europe should expand exports credits for low and middle income countries. 7.- US and Europe should follow an expansionary fiscal policy. According to Sachs "At the least it would put a floor on the global contraction that is rapidly gaining strenght. "The best recipe for avoiding a global recession", October 28.

Even if we would accept Sachs very optimistic view on the fiscal outlook as true, we should ask whether this is wasting aspirins or throwing real medicine at the problems? Compare Mr Sachs´ advice with what Michael Skapinker, on the same page tells us that Wal-Mart is doing to enforce ´sustainability, demanding "rigorous environmental and social standards", "An ethics lesson from an unlikely quarter".

The big question becomes then, should we now pull out all the stops in order to regain equilibrium on what might be a path to unsustainability or should we use this crucially decisive moment to provide the incentives to explore other perhaps more sustainable routes? In the panic it is still wise to take a brief time-out and think about what door to use. In fact our world at large is not only looking for an escape door for a financial crisis, it is looking for a door that can lead it to a better place. But, of course, neither do we have all the time to make up our mind… it is burning out there.