In the Eurozone there are many ticking debt bombs.

Sir, I refer to “Europe’s plan: com­plete its single mar­ket” by Barbara Moens and Alice Hancock, FT Big Read June 24, 2025. It states that “Three decades after it was launched, hun­dreds of bar­ri­ers still per­sist within the EU. 

November 1998, few weeks before that launch, in an Op-ed titled “Burning the bridges in Europe”, I wrote: “The Euro has one characteristic that differentiates it from the Dollar. This characteristic makes me feel less optimistic as to its chances of success. The Dollar is backed by a solidly unified political entity, i.e., the United States of America. The Euro, on the other hand, seems to be aimed at creating unity and cohesion. It is not the result of these.”

Years later, during the 2018 Winter Olympics, seeing/hearing Sofia Goggia singing her Italian national anthem with such enthusiasm, that opinion got reinforced. Frankly, now 2025, how many Europeans know and sing EU’s anthem Joy to the World as theirs?

In the referenced Op-Ed I also wrote: “Exchange rates, while not perfect, are escape valves. By eliminating this valve, European nations must make their economic adjustments in real terms. This makes these adjustments much more explosive.”

And that was before I knew that, amazingly, even if none of the Eurozone sovereigns can print Euros on their own, EU’s bank regulators, for Basel’s risk weighted bank capital/equity requirements, decreed a 0 percent risk weight. What ticking debt-bombs! Imagine if US had done so with the debt of its 50 states.

Sir, could Brexit have happened if Britain had also burned its bridges by adopting the Euro? 

Sir, Bulgaria has no idea into what it wants to get into.

Sir, with bank regulations based on the Eurocrats knowing better what to do with credit, for which repayment they’re not personally responsible for, than EU’s private sectors, what chance does Europe have?

 

If Brexit goes hand in hand with a Baselexit, Britain will at least do better than now.

Sir, Martin Wolf titles, [and I add], “Irresponsible promises will hit brutal economic reality" November 15.

Just like the irresponsible and populist promise of “We will make bank systems safer with our risk weighted bank capital requirements" and that is based on that what bankers perceive as risky is more dangerous than what they perceive as safe, brutally hits our real economies.

Wolf quotes the Institute for Fiscal Studies with, “over the last 11 years [before any Brexit], productivity — as measured by output per hour worked — has grown by just 2.9 per cent. That is about as much as it grew on average every 15 months in the preceding 40 years.”

And I ask, could that have something to do with that Basel II that introduced capital requirements that allowed banks to leverage their equity much more with the “safer” present than with the “riskier” future, for instance 62.5 times with what has an AAA to AA rating while only 12.5 times with a loan to an unrated entrepreneur? Of course it has. With it regulators gave banks the incentives to dangerously overpopulate safe havens, and to abandon their most vital social purpose, which is to allocate credit efficiently to the real economy.

So compared to the damage done by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision any foreseen negative consequences of Brexit seem minuscule.

And with respect to obtaining financial resources for financing the investments in infrastructure that Wolf so much desires, and which would cause larger fiscal deficits he argues “a necessary condition would be the confidence of the world’s savers and investors in the good sense, self-discipline and realism of British policymakers.”

Indeed, what if British policymakers stated. “We abandon the Basel Committee’s regulations. Not only are these with their 0% risk weight to the sovereign and 100% the citizens outright communistic, but these also introduced a risk aversion that truly shames all those British bankers who in past times daringly took risks and with it bettered Britain’s future”. 

Sir, I hold that would be a much-needed example for the whole world of good sense, self-discipline and realism. “A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are for.” John A. Shedd.

Sir, Wolf seemingly thinks that remaining in a EU in which its authorities assigned a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone’s sovereign debts, even though none of these can print Euros is better for Britain. As I see it, that is a reason for running away from it even more speedily.

PS. Should not bank supervisors be mostly concerned with bankers not perceiving the risks correctly? Of course! So, with the risk weighted capital requirements, what are they doing betting our bank system on that the bankers will perceive credit risks correctly?

@PerKurowski

In the Eurozone’s sovereign debt mine there is a choir of canaries going silent but, seemingly, that shall not be heard.

Sir, Gideon Rachman concludes, “Almost all of the modern threats — from a resurgent Russia to climate change and trade wars — are much easier for Britain to deal with, by using the collective strength of the EU.” “Brexit is an idea left over from a bygone era” June 25, 2019.

That is correct, but only if we exclude mentioning the problems within Europe. I refer specially to the sovereign debt bombs that are ticking within the Eurozone, the agents of “the EU’s most federalising project — the euro.”

Yes, that Germany “is stubbornly resisting demands from Brussels and Paris for deeper economic union” does surely not help but the real problem is that the biggest problem with the Euro, is not really acknowledged. 

When Greece turned into a dead coalmine canary, how much discussion were there about the fact that EU authorities had assigned Greece, as to all other Eurozone sovereigns, for purposes of bank capital requirements, a 0% risk weight? And that 0% risk weight was decreed even though all Eurozone sovereigns contract debt denominated in a currency that de facto is not their own domestic printable one.

Basically no discussion at all even though that 0% risk weight guarantees European banks are going to lend way too to the Eurozone’s sovereigns. Greece was small and ended being forced by ECB to walk the plank. But if Italy’s debt bomb explodes would it accept doing so? I doubt it.

Sir, to be a Remainer without requesting from EU a clear plan on how to defuse that still ticking debt bomb that could take the Euro down and perhaps the EU with it, seems not to be a very respectful position either.

@PerKurowski

On Brexit, as is usual these days in most issues, it would seem that both in Britain and EU, it is more profitable to divide than unite.

Sir, Martin Wolf writes that “In 2018 the EU’s exports to the UK were 79 per cent of its exports to the US and 153 per cent of its exports to China, though the UK economy was 14 per cent of that of the US and 21 per cent of China’s. The UK sent 47 per cent of its exports to the rest of the EU, against 13 per cent to the US and 6 per cent to China, though the US economy was 29 per cent bigger than the EU’s (excluding the UK), and China’s was only 16 per cent smaller.” “‘Global Britain’ is an illusion because distance has not died” May18.

It is not that very clear who depends most on whom for exports, Britain on EU, or EU on Britain? And I doubt you could really deduct that from these figures.

Nonetheless, that clearly evidences that it should also be in the interest of EU to come up with a counteroffer that could allow most of those who voted for Brexit to accept a Remain. As far as I know, there’s been nothing of that sort… even though, let me be very clear about it, neither does it seem Brexit proponents/negotiators have tried hard to propose something to EU that would make the Brexiters to accept a Remain.

In July 2017 in a letter to you I wrote: “I wonder why Martin Wolf, and most other influential Brexiters and Remainers, British foremost, supposedly, are not out there marketing the need for a very amicable Brexit, among all those Europeans that might wish the same, and who also the last thing they need, is for additional complications in their already hard as it is life.”

So why the lack of wanting to develop proposals that could bridge the differences between Brexiters and Remainers? Could it be, as is way too usual these days, that there is more political and financial profits in dividing than in uniting?

Sir, if so, what do we do about is, as that can only end up tragically bad, for all?

@PerKurowski

Any winner in a second Brexit referendum should want to make sure his would not be a Pyrrhic victory.

Sir, Simon Kuper writes: “Only voting Remain will end the stress and tedium (the national divide will remain whoever wins)”, “How Remain can win a second referendum” April 20.

Of course the national divide will remain, but the question is whether it will remain the same whoever wins the second referendum? Could the divide not increase? Who could, if winning, be more capable to set a course towards national unity, Brexiters or Remainers?

Kuper opines, “Remain needs to sound as patriotic as Leave. It must present the UK as a European power, not a sorry victim of Europe.”

Yes, of course, but have the Remainer done so? I don’t think so.

A powerful Remainer would have imposed conditions on Europe that would make it easier to convert Brexiters. Of that nothing has been seen. (A powerful Brexiteer would have looked for the same in order to convert Remainers).

A powerful Remainer might have started out for instance by questioning Michel Barnier as the European negotiator, as there were indications of him having conflicts of interest. (A powerful Brexiteer should have had to do so too).

A powerful Remainer would have asked Europe for a clear answer on how they intend to solve the problem with having assigned a 0% risk weight to all Eurozone sovereign that take on debt in a currency that de facto is not their own domestic (printable) one. I mean a powerful Remainer would not risk standing their with egg on his face having won the second referendum and then having nothing to remain in. (A powerful Brexiteer might not really have had to do so).

Kuper also opines “In a second referendum, Remainers can borrow the anti-elitist language of Leave to inveigh against privileged Brexiters.” 

Yes, that could help the Remainers to win the referendum, but that would also increase the chances of the divisions growing and they having won a Pyrrhic victory.

Sir, at the end of the day Britain’s problem is that the Brexit vs. Remain debate was taken over way too much by those wanting to profit on it by it turning it into a battle between good and evil. If you do not possess a sufficient strong elite capable of stopping such nonsense, you will pay the consequences, 

Sir, when thinking about what second referendum result would have the best possibilities over to regain some workable unit, each day that passes, makes me feel closer to have to give, a quite reluctant, “Brexit” response to that.

PS. London’s West End needs urgently an Oklahoma revival adapted to Britain. “The Brexiters and Remainers should be friends”

@PerKurowski

To unite Britain, Brexiters and Remainers must negotiate a compromise. Sadly, its polarization profiteers object to that.

Sir, Martin Wolf writes: “Brexit, has weaponised identity, turning those differences into accusations of treason. … Once the idea of “treachery” becomes part of political debate, only total victory or total defeat are possible… The country is so evenly divided, and emotions are so intense, that resolution is at present impossible” “Britain is once again the sick man of Europe”, April 18.

Indeed, as I wrote to Martin Wolf on April 13th, when walking on Fleet Street I heard a 7-8 years old girl ask: "Mommy, what's worse murder or Brexit?” Thank God, in this case, the mother was clear about the answer. 

But that question must have popped up in this girl’s mind, as a consequence of a growing worldwide radicalization. Children elsewhere could also be thought asking similar questions, like: murder or Trump, murder or climate change, murder or filthy rich, murder or whatever.

Much of it is the direct result of that creating division, especially in these days when messages of hate, envy or fake news, can be sent out to millions at zero marginal cost, is a much better business proposition than uniting… or reporting real news.

Sir, honestly, how many efforts have been invested by Britain’s elite in requesting changes to EU that could make sense to Brexiters, or to design a Brexit that could be acceptable for Remainers? I believe way too little!

Now when Wolf’s asserts that Britain’s most important crisis is economicand that “Britain is once again the sick man of Europe”I am absolutely not sure about that. Wherever you look in Europe you find way too many symptoms of economic and social ailments. 

For instance, just the fact that Eurozone’s sovereign were assigned a 0% risk weight, even though they take on debt in a currency that de facto is not their domestic (printable) one, presents more dangers to EU, than a Brexit would present to a Britain with a Pound based economy.

Sir, has FT played a responsible role as a unifier? Since we all have to live with our own consciences, which is not for me but for you to respond.

Let me though here say that as much as the little girl’s question shocked me, more did your ample coverage/publicity given to a minuscule “Extinction Rebellion” “Inside the new climate change resistance” April 11. That group predicates and “plans mass civil disobedience”, and is one that has wet dreams such as: “After two previous attempts to get herself arrested, Farhana Yamin …hopes she will soon see the inside of a police cell”.

Finally, and back to Brexit, if as Wolf says: “only total victory or total defeat are possible”,what do you believe Sir poses the greatest opportunities for Britain to ever become united again, Brexit or Remain? (I have an inkling that each day that passes, makes me feel closer to have to give a somewhat reluctant Brexit response to that)

PS. London’s West End needs an Oklahoma revival adapted to Britain. “The Brexiters and the Remainers should be friends”

 @PerKurowski

“Mommy, what’s worse, murder or Brexit?”

Sir, Bronwen Maddox writes: “Britain’s Parliament Square has returned to a kind of peace. MPs are off on their Easter break, thanks to the latest Brexit deadline extension. Most of the protesters are taking an Easter break too, it seems, and have suspended their pageantry of 12-foot banners and elaborate costumes, competing for the world’s attention. “Brexit has broken the political parties, not the constitution” April 16.

But Maddox predicts the peace is just temporary, because “the deadlock of Brexit is a political failure”.

Sir, I absolutely do not know enough about Britain’s constitution or political systems to opine on the article, but what I do know for sure is that in the Brexit vs. Remain type of deep divisions you are not alone. These odious divisions are happening everywhere, with all type of issues, as a result of polarization and redistribution profiteer being able, often anonymously, to send out their messages of hate, envy or fake news, on the web, at a marginal zero cost.

On April 13, briefly visiting London, while walking on Fleet Street, I heard a 7-8 years old girl ask: "Mommy, what's worse murder or Brexit?” “Thank God, in this case, the mother was at least very clear about the answer, but how could that question have popped in this girl’s mind? 

And I know that many children around the world might ask similar questions about for example: murder or Trump, murder or climate change, murder or filthy rich, murder or etc.

Sir, I do believe we should declare a worldwide emergency, before we lose all possibilities of a civilized social cohesion.

What to do? I don’t have a complete answer, but I would suggest the setting up parallel social media, in which no one that has not been completely identified can participate, so as that we can at least shame anyone producing excessive divisions.

To instate also a very small payment for each web contact produced by anyone that might be looking for some type of political funding, could be helpful.

PS. Yesterday I went to Speakers' Corner. There was no one speaking there.

@PerKurowski

Way too many have kept busier defeating Brexit than saving Britain, come what may.

Sir, Philip Stafford writes “City executives describe the EU’s no-deal plans as a ‘nakedly political’ grab for London’s business” “Tail risk” April 9.

Alex Barker in “Barnier vs the Brits” FT already in November 2011, wrote about the fears of Sir Mervin King held about that some Brussels reforms would reshape a vital British industry, banking, to the benefit of eurozone rivals. 

Specifically Barker mentioned: “Underlying the alarm in London is a more visceral fear: that Mr Barnier’s backers on the mainland are using this regulatory marathon to sap London’s strength as Europe’s pre-eminent financial centre.”

And that was when Michel Barnier was only the “European internal market commissioner – a perch giving him oversight of the continent’s financial industry. Arguably, no European Union job is of more consequence for the UK.”

Well yes, there was. Now Michel Barnier, since December 2016, is the European Chief Negotiator for the United Kingdom Exiting the European Union, a job with even more consequence for the UK.

Given the previous rough relationship between Britain and Monsieur Barnier, one could have made a very well argued case that his appointment served no one well. And I am sure many EU nations would have understood that.

As a friend of Britain, I have one way or other argued the previous on several occasions, but with no luck. I believe that is because way too many were kept too interested in just defeating Brexit and so, to try for a better Brexit, did not fit their plans.

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/2017/03/is-michel-barnier-really-sure-about.html

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/2017/07/european-citizens-must-solve-brexit.html

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/2017/07/should-not-mr-michel-barnier-negotiator.html

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/2018/04/what-kind-of-tariffs-is-protectionist.html

@PerKurowski

If Brexit ends in tears, Theresa May is clearly not the only one that should be blamed and not be forgiven.

Sir, Martin Wolf writes that Theresa May needed to begin Brexit negotiations “from the interests of the country. She has failed to do so… If the result is no deal, Mrs May could not be forgiven. “May is set on taking a hideous gamble” March 22.

Yes, for an outsider like me, Theresa May seems indeed to have managed very badly Brexit negotiations. But just as Lubomir Zaoralek the minister of foreign affairs of the Czech Republic wrote July 2016 in FT “Europe’s institutions must share the blame for Brexit”, the EU Brexit negotiators, like Michel Barnier, cannot be said to have no blame in any failure. 

And also, again for an outsider like me, I have seen little to nothing of all those Remainers giving, “from the interests of the country”, any constructive advice or cooperation in order to reach a more satisfactory solution. As I see it, the Brexit-failure political profiteers, as well as those eager to enhance their reputation by being able to point out “I told you so”, have refused to cooperate or to give any constructive advice, and so all they should also share the blame of a failure… and “not be forgiven.”

As far as I know a Hard Remain option that could have alleviated some of the Brexiters’ main justified concerns was never developed.

PS. A question: If because of the insane 0% risk weighting of their sovereigns the Eurozone breaks up, and drags down EU with it, would Britain be better off having Brexited or having remained in EU? 

@PerKurowski

If there’s a re-vote on Brexit, what will the Remainers suggest Britain remains in?

Sir, Jeff Colegrave makes a well reasoned case of why, if there is a new vote on Brexit, it is on the Remainers’ shoulders to make very clear what they are supporting to remain in. “Remainers risk hubris without a positive case for the union” December 17.

The three outstanding problems Colegrave wants to have a clear definition on are:

How the Eurozone can avoid that a generation of youth becomes again sacrificed, on the altar of the common currency.

How the EU can avoid manifestly failing to adequately address the issue of migration. 

And “the lack of democratic political architecture within the European project, [which] cannot lightly be dismissed as some kind of arcane irrelevance. 

I could not agree more. I would be a committed Remainer, only if EU shows clear intentions to stop being such a Banana Union. You do not build a real United European States with a bureaucracy such as that currently present in Brussels.

Let me be clearer yet. If a Remain wins, the last thing British citizen, or all of their other EU citizens colleagues need, is for that to be presented as a triumph or an endorsement of Brussels.

PS: With respect to the sacrifices on the altar of the common currency, I have sent you many letters, in which I have blamed EU authorities for the tragic over-indebtedness of many euro sovereigns, when assigning to the public debt contracted in a currency that de facto is not their domestic (printable) currency, for purposes of bank capital requirements, a 0% risk weight. But of course these letters are ignored, because Per Kurowski suffers just an obsession about current bank regulations. 

@PerKurowski

Should not a “State of the European Union” analysis be an indispensable document, when searching for a solution to the Brexit vs. Remain quantum entanglement?

George Parker and Alex Barker discussing the “brutal reception in cabinet and in parliament the Brexit withdrawal agreement received mention one cabinet minister saying: “The people who are criticising the deal don’t have any alternative, that was true before the Chequers meeting, it was true before this week’s cabinet meeting and it’s still true now. People can suck their teeth and say it’s a betrayal and talk about vassalage, but they don’t seem to have given any thought to what the alternative might be.” “May heads for a hard sell” November 17.

In terms of Brexit mechanism that might be true, but there is of course also the alternative of holding another referendum, which might provide a Remain instead. 

What I sorely miss in the whole Brexit vs. Remain heated discussions is a “State of the European Union” analysis that would help to bring some perspective on it all, and that could also be useful to all Europeans, independent from what happens down the line.

I say that because I sincerely think the EU is not doing well, and that there are huge problems brewing there, which sometimes, like yesterday, have me thinking that though Brexit is an absolutely awful solution, a Remain could be even worse.

Sir, could you imagine the national embarrassment for Britain to change its mind and go for a Remain, and then finding EU gone? 

PS. Quantum entanglement is a physical phenomenon which occurs when pairs or groups of particles are generated, interact, or share spatial proximity in ways such that the quantum state of each particle cannot be described independently of the state of the other(s), even when the particles are separated by a large distance—instead, a quantum state must be described for the system as a whole.

@PerKurowski

Brexit is sure a bad idea, but how can you be sure Remain is not even a worse one?

Sir, Alex Barker and Jim Brunsden quote Catherine Barnard, a professor of EU law at Cambridge university: “Never before has a treaty been constructed of this kind,” “The EU is a unique organization. What the Brexit process has revealed is just how deep the integration is in reality.” “Accord leaves Britain bound to Brussels” November 16.

On the first, indeed, to for instance adopt a Euro in order to push forward a union instead of letting a union produce a common currency, is a truly strange way to construct a union.

But, on the second “how deep the integration is in reality” I beg to differ. Having a member like Greece walk the plank, especially as EU authorities were most to blame for its problems, is not the doings of a real deep union.

Sir, let me refer to a speech delivered by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, given today, “The outlook for the euro area economy”. 

It concluded with: “I want to emphasize how completing Economic and Monetary Union has become more urgent over time not less urgent – and not only for the economic reasoning that has always underpinned my remarks, but also to preserve our European construction.”

I agree, because as is, Italy will not walk the plank as Greece did, and that could bring on the end of the euro, as we now know it, which could bring an end to the European Union, as we know now it, or, clearer yet, as we perhaps really don’t know it.

Sir, whether Brexit or Remain supporters, does not Britain (and all other UE members) have the right to know what “completing Economic and Monetary Union” to “preserve EU our European construction”, which Draghi urges really entails?

Draghi also mentioned “as urgent as the first steps were in euro area crisis management seven years ago”, “The completion of the banking union in all its dimensions, including risk reduction, and the start of the capital markets union through implementing all ongoing initiatives by 2019”

Sir, does not Britain, a nation where banking means so much, have the right to know exactly what that entails so that it banks are not castrated in the process?It is not just me a foreigner asking. Let me remind you that seven years ago, Alex Barker in [Mr. Brexit Negotiator] “Barnier vs. the Brits” wrote about the fears of Sir Mervin King that Brussels reforms would reshape a vital British industry, banking, to the benefit of eurozone rivals.

Draghi also said: “Household net worth remains at solid levels on the back of rising house prices and is adding to continued consumption growth.” 

That is an untrue statement. A much truer one would be: “Household net worth remains very fragile since it rides almost exclusively on rising house prices, as a consequence of the distortion produced by too much and too favorable financing being offered for the purchase of houses. A distortion that helped to anticipate much of the consumption we have seen, but that will come back and hurt house owners, whether by house prices falling, or hurt everyone, by inflation eroding our real consumption power.

Sir, when that happens, and the crisis needs to be managed so as to impede the destruction of all social cohesion, would you prefer to do that on a national level, instead of on the level of a union in which very few know how to sing its anthem?

Sir, I’m no one to give a recommendation but, should not the Brexit vs. Remain discussions refer more fundamentally to the future of Britain and of EU, instead of being turned into another profitable venture for some opportunistic polarization profiteers?

Should not FT inform its readers, in a much more balanced way, of all challenges that lay ahead, not only those of a Brexit but also those of a Remain?

A long time friend and admirer of Britain 

@PerKurowski

Should not EU cut its grand bargain with all its over-indebted sovereigns before any Brexit vs. Remain voting took place?

David Folkerts-Landau, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank writes, “An Italian debt crisis poses an existential risk to the eurozone. The current game of chicken is irresponsible. It also ignores the dangers inherent in any financial crisis, the costs of which would dwarf those of having the ESM step in”, “Europe must cut a grand bargain with Italy” November13.

Of course Italy cannot be expected to pay €2.450 billion, meaning over €40.000 per citizen, denominated in a currency that is de facto not Italy’s real domestic (printable) currency. Be sure Sir, Italy will not walk the plank, as Greece had to do.

But of course what Folkerts-Landau writes, “The option of a debt write-down with private sector involvement is also unfeasible”, is not possible either.

One way to solve Italy’s (and Europe’s) sovereign debt crisis as painless as possible could be by using a Brady bond/zero coupon mechanism as used creatively by the US in 1989 during the Latin American debt crisis. I mentioned the use of those bonds to FT in a letter of 2008, “"Après us, le déluge", as did William R. Rhodes in 2012 with “Time to end the Eurozone's ad hoc fixes”.

A complementary tool to help fix Italy’s (Europe’s) banks, as I wrote to FT in 2012, would be to do what Chile did during its mega bank crisis in 1982 namely: a. having central banks issue bonds in order to buy “risky” loans not allowing banks to pay dividends until those notes had been repurchased; b. forcing banks to hold more capital with central banks subscribing shares not wanted by the market with these shares resold over a determined number of years and c. generous financing plans to allow small investors to purchase equity of the banks.

Obviously, for Italy’s (and Europe’s) banks to be really helpful to the real Italian economy, it would be imperative to get rid of the credit risk weighted equity requirements for banks, those which erode the incentives for banks to give credit to those who most could do good by receiving it, like SMEs and entrepreneurs.

What is absolutely true though is that to solve Italy’s (Europe’s) problems, more zero risk weighted loans to the sovereigns, in order for government bureaucrats to allocate the resources derived from bank credit, will just not cut it… no matter how much haircut on Italy’s (or other European sovereign’s) debt you accept.

Europe would need to start the process of helping Italy (and Europe) by getting rid of all current high-shot regulators. Not only would they be too busy, as until now, covering up their mistakes, but also, as Einstein said, “We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we createdthem.”

Sir, I suspect all in FT would vote for a Remain if given a chance, but before doing so, would you not prefer EU authorities to clearly explain to you how they intend to fix the European sovereign debts overhang. That which if not fixed will crash the Euro and thereby most probably also crash the European Union? Sir, would it not look truly silly Remaining in something gone?

PS. It is clear that without the help of those wanting immensely more to save the European Union than to save some cushy jobs, the future of the EU very sadly looks very bleak.

@PerKurowski

With so much debt in a currency that is really not their domestic one, has Greece really made it to the other side?

Tony Barber opines “Greece is finding its way back to domestic stability and a secure place in the European order” “Greece shows how a maverick nation can recover from disorder” November 1.

Really? Greece debt is around €345bn euros, about €32.000 per citizen, in a currency that for real practical (printing) purposes is not their own?

That is a result of ignoring the fundamental Gordian Knot in European Union, by means of EC’s Sovereign Debt Privileges, that of assigning an absolute zero credit risk to sovereigns in the eurozone who are indebted in a currency that is really not their absolute own.

Britain and Sweden resisted adopting the euro. Had Britain done so, then Brexit would have been a reality almost unanimously supported, a long time ago.

I do sincerely suggest that any Remain proponents, if only to safeguard their own reputation, require a response from EU of how it will go about to unknot that knot, before it brings EU down.

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/2018/09/in-case-of-greece-eu-violated.html

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/2018/10/eu-authorities-assigning-italy-like.html

@PerKurowski

What could “megaprojects” have taught us about the EU and the euro?

Sir, Tim Harford, with the help of Bent Flyvbjerg, “perhaps the world’s leading authority on ‘megaprojects’”, analyzes Brexit “What megaprojects can teach us about Brexit” October 26.

It is a useful exercise though I keep on being surprised by how little attention is given to other closely related megaprojects such as that of the European Union and the euro. 

A complete Brexit project should analyze the costs for Britain of EU not solving the much-ignored challenges the euro poses to EU, as these could be huge. Anyone proposing a Remain, should at least try to get a clear answer from EU on what it intends to do to make absolutely certain the euro will not bring EU down, or if that happens that at least non-euro members are not called to share in its costs.

I have no idea if the EU/euro project was “prepared thoroughly”, without “well-known cognitive biases”, or if it was carried out by “an experienced team”.

But when it comes to “try to break a large project into smaller, standalone chunks, so that the failure of one is not a failure of everything” clearly that’s not the case here, since the failure of the euro could quite likely bring the EU down.

The “everyone having an incentive to make things move smoothly” is doubtful too. Surplus countries find it easier to live with a euro weakened by deficit countries, though that does not work the other way round.

With respect to having an early warning system, so problems can be spotted and fixed before they grow, I seriously doubt it exists. Especially since EU authorities seriously compounded any euro challenges with statist “Sovereign Debt Privileges”, that which assigns a 0%capital requirements for banks when holding eurozone’ sovereign debts denominated in euros... a currency that in most generous terms could qualify as quasi domestic.

The challenges for EU of the euro must have been well known.

@PerKurowski

Is Italy’s 0% risk weighted sovereign debt in euros really denominated in their own currency? NO!

Sir, on the eve of the euro, November 1998, in an Op-ed titled “Burning the bridges in Europe” I wrote: “The possibility that the European countries will subordinate their political desires to the whims of a common Central Bank that may be theirs but really isn’t, is not a certainty. Exchange rates, while not perfect, are escape valves. By eliminating this valve, European countries must make their economic adjustments in real terms. This makes these adjustments much more explosive.”

Now you write: “On Tuesday the European Commission, taking a step without precedent in the euro’s 20-year life, demanded that Italy should re-submit its 2019 budget” “Roman theatre clashes with the EU rule book” October 25.

EC’s demand is the direct consequence of Italy no longer possessing the escape valve that a devaluation of their lira used to signify. Not only that. As Italy’s debt is no longer denominated in liras, it will not really have the domestic “benefit” of inflation in their own devalued currency. It is now supposed, like Greece, to serve its debt in euros partly made stronger, by surplus countries like Germany. 

To rub salt into the wound, EU authorities, the European Commission, for the purpose of the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, by means of something known as “Sovereign Debt Privileges” or “Equity Capital Privilege”, assigned a 0% risk weight to Italy, which of course had to doom it to unsustainable public debt.

Sir, it is mindboggling how little EU has done to really confront the challenges posed by the euro, those that if unresolved will bring the EU down.

Similarly, it is mindboggling how in all overheated Brexit/Remain discussions, so little attention has been given to the EUs very delicate conditions. How would history recount if the day after Britain capitulates and hands over its Remain, the EU would break up?

Sir, again, I am strongly in favor of the European Union, but not a Banana Union run by eurocrats whose children or grandchildren do most certainly not know how to sing the European Union’s anthem, and if they did, would never put as much enthusiasm into it as Sofia Goggia did when singing her Italy’s national anthem at the Winter Olympics of 2017. 

@PerKurowski

How naïve were we when regulators told us “We will risk weigh the capital requirements for banks to make these safer for you”?

Sir, Simon Kuper in reference to Brexit writes “It’s hard now to fathom how naive we were in 2016. I thought…you couldn’t just stick a false slogan on your campaign bus, could you? “Trust, lies and videotape” October 20.

Sure you could! Like when or bank regulators told the world that what’s perceived as risky is more dangerous to our bank systems than what’s perceived as safe, and the world, including Simon Kuper, and the Financial Times, believed that to be true.

Kuper holds the popular gold standard of truth being, “I saw it with my own eyes.” Well not in this case! 100% of the assets that caused the 2007-08 crisis were assets that because these were perceived as safe, allowed banks to hold especially little capital, and that has yet to even be formally noticed.

Kuper quotes Umberto Ecco: “The genuine problem . . . does not consist of proving something false but in proving that the authentic object is authentic.”

Yes, like the problem I have had surpassing that seemingly unsormountable barrier of “what is risky is risky”, in order to warn regulators that what is “safe”, is even more dangerous… at least to our bank systems.

@PerKurowski

The dangers of the unknown unknowns are greater than those of the known unknowns.

Sir, Martin Wolf asks, “Is it possible to know the state of the UK public finances under present conditions?” He answers “No. The unknowns are too great.” “Some ‘known unknowns’ about the UK economy”, October 19.

Indeed, but to me, the most dangerous unknowns for the UK, and for much of the rest of the world, are the “unknown” unknowns. 

Like how much of the savings for the future, of those who are the least able to manage major upheavals, has been invested in houses; those homes that because of so much preferential finance increased their prices so much, that they were turned into also being risky investment assets?

Houses are good investments… until too many want to convert them simultaneously into main-street purchasing capacity.

Like how much of the illusion of public debt sustainability is solely the result of preferential regulations, like the Basel Accord of 1988 decreeing a 0% risk weight to sovereigns and a 100% risk weight to citizens?

Any sector given more preferential access to credit than other is doomed to unsustainable debt… just like Greece was doomed by the 0% risk weight some yet unknown EU authorities awarded it.

Sir, when compared to these in general unknown unknowns, the known unknowns, like Brexit or trade wars, are just peanuts. 

@PerKurowski

Sometimes, quite often, a government’s help costs you more than it is worth

Sir, Sarah Gordon with respect to the possible consequences of Brexit for small business writes: “The British government has failed to provide the support that is needed” “Aloof state abandons UK small businesses to their Brexit fate” October 18.

Since any government assistance way too often goes hand in hand with having to waste your time, or your money paying their crony consultants for a lot of tasks not necessarily relevant to the problem at hand, I’m not really sure small businesses are here net losers as a result of that lack of support.

Besides what’s to be expected from a government that allows banks to hold much less capital when lending to the sovereign and financing house purchases, than when lending to small businesses?

@PerKurowski

Instead of working on a Brexit, Britain should do all Europeans a favor and negotiate a very tough EU Remainer

Sir, Simon Kuper, in a back and forth discussion on Brexit, ends upcontemplating “a soft Brexit or Brino, in which Britain becomes a poorer Norway, accepting all European rules including freedom of movement to keep trade and travel flowing.” “Why there won’t be a no-deal Brexit” October 4.

As a reason for that Kuper opines “Few European officials want the UK back now, anyway”. Indeed I can understand that EU’s Brussels bureaucrats feeling rejected and questioned want to spank the Brits for Brexit, but do Europeans want that too? I don’t think so.

Sir, as I see it, and as I have been writing to you for some time, the best way out is a tough Remainder offer in which Britain lays clear what it wants the EU to do, in order to want to remain a member of it.

I am not a Brit, and I do not live in Europe, but my list of request would include:

1. EU needs to solve the challenges that the euro poses to it and about which they have done little to nothing in the twenty years since its inception. If they do not do that, the EU has no future. And don’t let them tell you those challenges were not known.

2. EU must make sure never again treat one of its members like it treated Greece, which for the risk weighted capital requirement it assigned a risk weight of 0%, and thereby doomed it to tragic excessive indebtedness, only to later put the whole blame, and costs of that, mistake on Greece.

3. Understand that Europe has no future with risk adverse risk weighted capital requirements for banks that distort the allocation of credit to the real economy, and sets it up to a financial crisis of monstrous proportions, by means of incentivizing dangerous excessive bank exposures to something considered especially safe, against especially little capital. 

4. That EU stops behaving like a Banana Union getting involved into such issues as regulating the entry fees to Romanian monasteries.

Sir, if those requests would come to fruition, many Europeans would be immensely thankful to Britain… again.

@PerKurowski