In order to achieve any real economic and financial normalisation the regulatory distortion of bank credit must be eliminated.

Sir, Mohamed El-Erian holds that: “the move up in US interest rates has attracted lots of attention. It’s been blamed for a violent sell-off in stocks, and fuelled warnings not just of an end to the bull market in bonds but, perhaps, also equities. That, in turn, can engender concerns about the housing market, corporate funding, financial stability and economic growth. Yet the causes behind the rise in bond yields suggest that this is more likely to be part of a larger — and healthier — economic and financial normalisation.” “Don’t forget the good news behind higher bond yields” February 6

Let me be absolutely clear, before the credit distorting and danger enhancing risk weighted capital requirements for banks are eliminated, and the difficult and very delicate task of recapitalizing these completed, there will be no real economic and financial normalization.

http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2016/04/here-are-17-reasons-for-why-i-believe.html

@PerKurowski

The worst problem with the dangerously growing debt is what it has not financed

Sir, Pascal Blanque and Amin Rajan write: “for central banks, global debt is like the sword of Damocles — an ever-present danger. It stands at about 330 per cent of annual economic output, up from 225 per cent in 2008… No one knows all the cracks into which excess liquidity has seeped — or what risks are being stored up”, “Beware the butterfly: global economies are on borrowed time” January 7.

Sir, if central bankers are only now waking up to this fact, then you must agree with that we are in much bigger problems that we thought.

Central bankers, lacking in character and not wanting to live up to their own responsibilities, dared not do anything but to push the 2007/08 crisis cart down the road, with their QEs and low interest rates. For someone who argued back in 2006 the benefits of a hard landing, that is bad enough.

But it’s so much worse than that. Blanque and Rajan argue that “Debt means consumption brought forward while low rates mean the survival of zombie borrowers and companies… High debt is not intrinsically bad so long as it is used to fund investments that deliver profits or create financial assets worth more than the debt. Data on this score are hard to come by.”

And there lies the fundamental problem. Because of risk weighted capital requirements for banks, bank credit has been used to finance “safer” present consumption; to inflate values of mostly existing assets; and way too little to finance “riskier” future production. It amounts to having placed a reverse mortgage on our past and present economy, in order to extract all of its value now, not caring one iota about tomorrow, and much less about that holy social intergenerational contract Edmund Burke spoke about.

It is clear the experts Blanque and Rajan have yet not understood what happened as they write: “The origins of the current worries predate the 2008 crisis which was caused when lending standards went from responsible to reckless: the siphoning of money into dodgy ventures such as subprime mortgages, covenant-light loans or sovereign lending based on creative accounting.”

The truth is that without truly reckless regulatory standards, those which allowed banks to leverage over 62.5 time to 1 with securities rated by human fallible rating agencies AAA; and, at least in Europe, allowing banks to lend to a 0% risk weighted sovereign like Greece against no capital at all, nothing of the above would have happened.

What to do? In my mind, in order to extricate the world of this problem, we need first to rid us completely of the credit distorting risk weighted capital requirements; and second, to be able to manage the transition to for instance a 10% capital requirements against all assets, including sovereigns, without freezing the whole credit machinery, perhaps bank creditors would have to accept, in partial payment of their credits, negotiable non redeemable common fully voting shares issued by the banks. If that helps to bring back undistorted bank vitality, it might be the best shares to have ever.

PS. Blanque and Rajan reference “S&P 500 corporates… stashing cash reserves outside the US.” What cash? Treasurers have not stacked away cash under corporate mattresses. Those surpluses are all already invested in assets, of all sorts, and which could suffer losses just like any other assets.

@PerKurowski

More than tighter or looser, what EU needs are capital requirements that distort less the allocation of bank credit

Sir, I refer to Jim Brunsden’s “EU set to resist tighter capital requirements” September 30.

EU (and all other) needs to decide what’s more important for it, the short term stability of its banking sector, or the future perspectives of its real economy. If it is the first then increasing the capital requirements must be a priority.

But, if the real economy is more important, then instead of being more accommodating with the capital requirements, as is now being discussed, it needs much more to rid itself of those risk weighted requirements that so distort the allocation of bank credit.

That would not not necessarily entail having to increase too much bank capital. Some increases for holding what’s “safe” could be compensated by some decrease of capital required for holding what’s “risky”, like loans to unrated SMEs. The latter would not affect the stability of the banks since there is never excessive dangerous bank exposures built up with what is ex ante perceived as risky.

How to proceed? I do not have data to recommend something exact but, one way of doing it, could be that of assigning a risk-weight of 60% for all assets… and then increase it by 5% in order to reach 100% for all assets in eight years.

Another, much more cumbersome of course is to define individual capital requirements for each bank, starting with were each one of these currently find themselves.

And of course a Chilean type recapitalization plan that entails central banks taking much of the not performing loans off bank’s balance sheets, subject to conditions such a not paying dividends, and at one time having to repurchase those loans, would give a big needed boost to the whole credit market.

@PerKurowski ©

Wolfgang Münchau has not earned the right to now appear as the one demanding “banks to take on more risk”

Sir, Wolfgang Münchau writes “One useful measure that would bring immediate benefits would be purchases of non-performing loans in the banking sector…. The objective should be not to protect bank profits but to get banks to take on more risk” “Eurozone woes demand a much bolder response” March 7.

And he also writes that he favors helicopter droppings over QEs because that “policy would bypass governments and the financial sector. The financial markets would hate it. There is nothing in it for them. But who cares?”

Is he wrong? Of course not! But who is he to now demand that kind of bold action?

Over the years Münchau has kept mum on all letters I sent reminding him of the dangers of credit risk aversion caused by the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, like one in 2007. And equally mum on the letters were I informed him that, because of such risk weighing, the liquidity provided by QEs did not reach where it was most needed by the real economy, like one in 2012

Here is but one example of my many letters to Wolfgang Münchau and that by the way suggests the capitalization he now speaks of.

Sir, you can find many many more letters to Münchau here:

And even though ideas can be dressed up in different words Münchau should be careful. “Never plagiarize. Always attribute” is a simple, clear statement in the Society of Professional Journalists Code of Ethics that leaves no room for ambiguity.

@PerKurowski ©

Poor Greece is squeezed between a bad regulators’ rock and a leftist-ideological-blocking hard place.

Sir, Mark Mazover writes about “A last chance for Tsipras to choose country over party” June 25.

In it the Professor refers to “the country’s sky-high unemployment rates” and to “Greek banks on life support”.

That would call for two things:

First the elimination of the credit risk weighted capital requirements for banks which effectively blocks the fair access to bank credit of those perceived as “risky”, like the SMEs who could most help to generate sustainable jobs.

Second, something like Chile’s capitalization of its banks during the 1982-83 crisis, by purchasing their non-performing loans, in the understanding that these loans would be re-purchased by the banks before their dividend payments could resume.

But to get bank regulators, like the former Chair of the Financial Stability Board, Mario Draghi, to admit how wrong they have been is no easy task.

And to get Tsipras and Syriza, to back a plan executed during the Pinochet regime, that is no easy task either.

In my opinion, without doing both those things the chances of Greece recovering in a foreseeable time are nil. But, for Greece to get out of this trap between a rock and a hard place, would require some real strong leadership, from Greece and from Europe.

@PerKurowski

Here are two heartfelt recommendations to India.

Sir, I refer to Henny Sender’s very comprehensive “India’s shadow banks step in to lend where others fear to tread” May 26.

I just want to add the following:

First, India, as a developing country, can certainly not afford bank regulations that favors the allocation of bank credit to the safer past than to the riskier future… and so it urgently needs to get rid of the distortions that the Basel Committee’s credit risk weighted capital (equity) requirements for banks produce.

And second, with respect to its private sector banks, these could also benefit from a major re-capitalization plan, like the one Chile did in the early 80s. The central bank should issue bonds using the proceeds to acquire the banks’ non-performing loans (which will permit the reversal of all provisions) and the banks would commit to repurchase those loans from the Central bank, plus interests, before they can proceed with any dividend payments.

That could turn it around much faster for India.

Of course Europe would also benefit from implementing a similar plan.

@PerKurowski

Greece and Europe, allow your banks to function like banks again…look how Chile did it.

Martin Wolf writes: “It is Greece’s fault. Nobody was forced to lend to Greece.”, “Mythology that blocks progress in Greece” April 22.

Perhaps not forced. But regulators produced irresistible temptations, like allowing banks to leverage their equity, and the support they receive from society, more than 60 to 1 when lending to Greece, comes extremely close to forcing. Put a plate with a good chocolate cake in front of children, and see what happens.

And then Wolf writes: “The ECB should not lend to clearly insolvent banks”… And I ask, why not? To have ECB competing with pension funds and widows and orphans for whatever little “safe” assets there is left does not make any sense.

Now if the ECB did like Chile did in 1982-83; capitalizing all banks by purchasing their non-performing loans; against an agreement that banks would not pay dividends until they had repurchased these loans from the ECB, then Greek banks would be fit to operate again as banks.

Of course, for the Greek banks to be helpful to the real Greek economy. you would have to get rid of the credit risk weighted equity requirements for banks, those which impede that banks will give credit to those who most could do good by receiving bank credit, like to the SMEs and entrepreneurs.

Whatever, to solve Greece’s problems, more zero risk weighted loans to the sovereign, in order for government bureaucrats to allocate the resources derived from bank credit, will just not cut it… no matter how much haircut on Greece’s debt you accept.

And “the Centre for Economic Policy Research notes that excessive debt hangs over the entire eurozone, not just Greece.”

Yes indeed, and that is why I would suggest applying the Chilean solution all over Europe.

Europe, allow your banks to finance the riskier future, and keep them from only refinancing the safer past.

PS. This was written before I discovered that, in the case of Europe the regulations were even worse than Basel II's. The European Commission adopted Sovereign Debt Privileges which assigned a 0% risk weight to all their sovereigns. That meant banks could lend to Greece without holding any capital at all. Holy moly! To top it up Eurozone sovereigns are indebted in a currency that de facto is not a real domestic (printable) currency for them.

@PerKurowski

How can I help free FT from its current severe bout of Stockholm syndrome?

Sir, in your “The self-defeating Greek rescue policy”, November 3 you write again about the need to have “banks recapitalized” But again, for the umpteenth time, over soon a decade now, you refuse to approach the question of “Capitalized in order to do what?”. 

The fact is that capitalizing the banks, for these to keep on doing what they did, namely lending or investing excessively in “The Infallible”, because there was where regulators allowed them to earn the highest ex ante risk adjusted returns, and to avoid excessively lending to “The Risky”, like to small businesses and entrepreneurs, because there the overly sissy nanny regulators did not want them to go, then no recapitalization of banks can lead to any sustainable good result, and these will all be just other examples of kicking the can down the road.

It is clear that FT has been hijacked by bank regulators, like Mario Draghi, and is suffering from a severe bout of the Stockholm syndrome that impedes it to criticize what needs to be criticized in harsh terms. How can I help you to free yourself from it?

I sure have tried a lot!

The eurozone might be better off fixing its banks the Chilean way

Sir, it is completely counterproductive for the economy if banks can comply with harsher capital requirements by switching to holding assets which require less capital. That is an aspect amiss in Philipp Hildebrand´s and Lee Sachs' “The eurozone should fix its banks in the US way". September 25. 

To have the ECB propose purchasing bank equity in order to blackmail private investor into increasing their bank equity while Basel II or III´s discrimination based on perceived risk is still in effect, does simply not work. 

Set instead a fix capital ratio for any asset, like 8 percent, for loans to infallible sovereigns the same as for loans small businesses, and then you will get some real action. 

If that would require too much capital then perhaps ECB, and Europe, could benefit from doing something along the way Chile did during its monstrously large bank crisis 1981-1983. Excluding for some foreign exchange considerations, those Chilean actions were in summary based on: 

a. The purchase of risky loans by the Central Bank by means of long term promissory notes accruing real interest rates and with a repurchase obligation out of the profits of the banks' shareholders before those promissory notes came due, plus some limitations on the use of their operative income. 

b. There was a forced recapitalization of the banks and in which any shares not purchased by current shareholders, would be acquired by the Central Bank, and resold over a determined number of years. 

c. And finally there was also an extremely generous long term plan for small investors to purchase equity of banks. 

The above, together with some strong revisions of bank regulations, helped to set Chile on a track that Europe would currently envy.