Showing posts with label Chermany. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chermany. Show all posts

March 17, 2010

But Germany could always make an offer no one could refuse!

Sir Martin Wolf in “China and Germany unite to weaken the world economy” March 17, writes that “Since… Germany… has no chance of expelling any member it disapproves of from the eurozone it would have to leave itself”.

I am not at all sure about that. Germany could always make an offer to Greece and to Greece´s creditors that no one could refuse, especially if things go from bad to worse.

Germany could for instance guarantee 20 percent of Greece current debt in Euros if creditors are willing to convert the remaining 80 percent into New Drachmas at reasonable rates and with reasonable maturities. This would allow Greece to devalue and perhaps even keep the option of returning to the euro-fold at a more propitious moment.

Play it maestros!

Sir I do agree with all of Martin Wolf´s good and absolutely cut clear “Chermany calling”, March 17, except for his last phrase “Forget all the self-righteous moralizing. Try some plain common sense instead.” That call unfortunately carries also a ring of self-righteous moralizing, since what common sense really tells us is that what is on the line is not the avoidance of some truly harsh adjustments, but more the timing of those. Are they to occur during our baby-boomers' time or after we have retired from the scene?

The world has two alternatives, one is to grow itself out of the crisis in the hope that it will find a sustainable economic down the road, the other is to readjust in the hope it can find a political sustainable and decent way to do that. Which way you prefer depends much on your starting point. Deficit countries are naturally more inclined to go for growth, surplus countries less so, if only because they have not the same keen urgency. Again, as usual, little will be done… until, as they say, the shit hits the fan, or the music stops.

Meanwhile I would be glad, and honored, to sit in a chair on deck, next to Martin Wolf, listening to some hopefully not too bad music we can both whistle to.