Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts

October 21, 2015

If a credit from one sovereign to another were classified as a crime against humanity how would the IMF proceed?

Sir, in Venezuela going to the IMF for assistance, is such a hot potato that some might even be hauled in front of a court accused for antipatriotic behavior for even mentioning that possibility. But if at the end it has to go to the IMF, it is clear that Martin Wolf raises an extremely important issue, namely how the influence of some sovereign creditors could block constructive actions by the IMF to reach acceptable solutions. “Resist Russian blackmail over Ukraine’s debt” October 21.

And the same problem, of how to treat sovereign credits, would be present in any Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism. It has no easy solution… and the perfect might well prove to be the enemy of the good.

That said, a sovereign should have the right to go in front of some international court, in order to at least have the chance of getting the debts it owes, including to other sovereigns, classified as derived from odious credit, if for instance there is sufficient proof that substantial corruption was involved when the debt was contracted… and that the creditor had or should have had sufficient knowledge about it.

In the case of the most egregious malfeasance, where it can be sufficiently evidenced that many humans are suffering as a direct consequence of a debt having been contracted, one should be able to have that debt qualified as an economic crime against humanity.

And if a debt owed by a sovereign to a sovereign were to be qualified as resulting from an economic crime against humanity, by for instance the International Criminal Court in Hague, how would then IMF proceed? I really do not know… I am just an economist.

@PerKurowski ©

February 11, 2015

Perhaps crony-relation-weighted equity requirements for banks could be useful in Ukraine and other places?

Sir, I refer to Martin Wolf’s “Help Ukraine seize this chance” February 11.

Wolf writes: “Also important will be the reform of banking, particularly the elimination of lending by banks to the connected parts of larger business entities. This is aimed at limiting the dominance of the oligarchs, most of whom seized wealth in the early years after independence.”

That describes well a problem which affects the allocation of bank credit in many developing countries, and I would hold that has been the direct cause of most serious bank crises there.

In that respect perhaps crony-relation-weighted equity requirements for banks should substitute for those credit-risk-weighted regulations currently favored by the Basel Committee, and which so much benefits the "infallible" sovereigns and other members of the AAArisktocracy.

More-coziness-more equity… but then again there might not be someone daring o able to rate those relations objectively.

March 30, 2014

Believing too much in “the power of peace” can be hazardous to the health of your nation.

Sir, I refer to Simon Kuper’s “The surprising power of peace”, March 29.

It is always better to be skeptical and pleasantly surprised by “the power of peace” than naïve and unpleasantly surprised by its weakness. Most Venezuelans, including most of those who strongly protested the previous ways of Venezuela, and thereby perhaps unwittingly helped to open the way for Hugo Chavez, stand today in utter disbelief watching how everything has degenerated. I cannot but reflect on how much better off we could have been if we had believed much much less in “the power of peace”.

And I say this also in reference to George Osborne and Wolfgang Schäuble now recommending a “balanced and proportionate” response to Russia. That sounds a bit like believing too much in “the power of peace”.