September 04, 2018

What would happen to the yield curve if regulators dared to increase, ever so little, their current 0% risk weight for US Treasury debt?

Sir, Megan Greene discusses how the yield curve the spread between long- and short-term bonds may be influenced by, “The US Treasury is currently borrowing more money to finance predicted big budget deficits and it has mainly done so with short-term debt… and global quantitative easing has created a seemingly insatiable demand for five- to 10-year Treasuries, pushing down yields.” “How central banks distort the yield curve’s predictive power”, September 4.

But that’s not all the distortion in force. The risk weighted capital requirements for banks might distort even more; we recently saw how Greece was taken down by the 0% risk weigh EU authorities assigned to its debt, which caused European banks to drown in it, until they got rescued, by the victim Greece having to take on even more debt.

If the US, in face of its ever growing public debt, suddenly sees it as its responsibility to increase the risk weight of it, so that the interest rates send more correct signals, then I would hold that the rate on all longer term bonds would immediately shoot up, and many banks around the world would stand there with huge losses on their books. 

I here you “That will just not happen? Yes, they have with that 0% risk weight painted themselves into a corner but, sooner or later, there needs to be some adults in the room who start working against having to face a scenario of total collapse; this time with much less tools available than the last time they kicked the can down the road in 2007 2008 … or at least so we hope… or at least so we pray.


@PerKurowski