November 08, 2018
Sir, you conclude that “Regulators and governments would do well to study whether the huge increase in repurchases has damaged business growth and capital formation” “Record share buybacks should be raising alarms” November 8.
Of course they should but let us be very clear, since that has been going on for quite some time so, if they have not done it yet, then shame on them.
For instance in July 2014 Camilla Hall, in “Bankers warn over rising US business lending” wrote, “Charles Peabody, a bank analyst at Portales Partners in New York, has warned that while it is hard to extrapolate what is driving commercial and industrial lending, if it is to fund acquisitions or share buybacks it may not indicate a strengthening economy. “It is loan growth, just not sustainable,” he said.”
And therein Hall also wrote, “A banking lending executive at a large regional lender said ‘Traditionally banks have been very cautious of that’.”Of course, you and I know Sir that banker should not be throwing the first stone, since bankers too have morphed, thanks to the risk weighted capital requirements, from being savvy loan officers into being financial engineers dedicated to minimizing the capital their bank is required to hold.
Also, in 2017, when discussing IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report, John Plender wrote: “Low yields, compressed spreads, abundant financing and the relatively high cost of equity capital, it observes, have encouraged a build-up of financial balance sheet leverage as corporations have bought back equity and raised debt levels…Rising debt has been accompanied by worsening credit quality and elevated default risk.”
But what really caught my attention today was your reference to Berkshire Hathaway’s “$104bn cash pile [it holds] keeping its powder mostly dry for future deals — if, say, the market correction continues.”
How do you keep that powder dry? Since most probably it is not in dollar notes under Warren Buffet’s mattress, what is it invested in? We know that in accounting terms “Cash” includes a lot of investments, but in the real life, “Cash” does not always turn out to be real cash. In Venezuela you could now fill a whole mattress with high denomination bolivar notes, and still not be able to buy yourself a coffee with it.
In a world in which regulators have assigned a 0% risk weight to for instance the already $22tn and fast growing US debt, which, if nothing changes, would doom that safe-haven to become very dangerous, is not Cash just another speculative investment?
@PerKurowski