Chile can also set a great example for the developed world.

Sir, in “Chile can set an example for the developing world” FT, March 10, 2022, you refer to “the risk of European levels of debt”

With bank capital requirements mostly based on perceived credit risks, not on misperceived risks or unexpected events, like a pandemic or a war in Ukraine, you can bet that, at any moment, many banks will stand there naked, precisely when they’re most needed. 

When that happens Chile could set a great example for the developed world… and FT could provide much help with a Big Read that describes better than I can, how Chile so intelligently managed their huge 1981-1983 bank crisis.

The main elements of Chile’s plan were, in general terms:

a. The purchase of risky/defaulted loans by the Central Bank by means of long-term promissory notes accruing real interest rates and with a repurchase obligation out of the profits of the banks' shareholders before those promissory notes came due, plus some limitations on the use of their operative income… e.g., limits on bonuses. 

b. A forced recapitalization of the banks, in those pre-Basel days one capital requirement against all assets, and in which any shares not purchased by current shareholders, would be acquired by the Central Bank, and resold over a determined number of years. 

c. And finally also an extremely generous long-term plan for small investors to purchase equity of banks. 

Just think about where e.g., Deutsche Bank could be, if the Bundesbank and Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), had applied a similar mechanism during the 2008 crisis?

Here's more details on Chile's handling of its bank crisis

PS. Not the first time I suggest this

@PerKurowski

FT, on banking and finance who are you to believe, Francis Fukuyama or Paul Volcker?

Sir, Francis Fukuyama in “The war on liberalism” FT March 5, writes:

“Liberals understand the importance of free markets — but under the influence of economists such as Milton Friedman and the “Chicago School”, the market was worshipped and the state increasingly demonised as the enemy of economic growth and individual freedom. Advanced democracies under the spell of neoliberal ideas trimmed back welfare states and regulation, and advised developing countries to do the same under the “Washington Consensus”. Cuts to social spending and state sectors removed the buffers that protected individuals from market vagaries, leading to big increases in inequality over the past two generations.

While some of this retrenchment was justified, it was carried to extremes and led, for example, to deregulation of US financial markets in the 1980s and 1990s that destabilised them and brought on financial crises such as the subprime meltdown in 2008.”

Paul A. Volcker in his autobiography “Keeping at it” of 2018, penned together with Christine Harper, with respect to the risk weighted bank capital requirements he helped to promote and which were approved in 1988 under the name of Basel I wrote:

“The assets assigned the lowest risk, for which capital requirements were therefore low or nonexistent, were those that had the most political support: sovereign credits and home mortgages. Ironically, losses on those two types of assets would fuel the global crisis in 2008 and a subsequent European crisis in 2011. The American “overall leverage” approach had a disadvantage as well in the eyes of shareholders and executives focused on return on capital; it seemed to discourage holdings of the safest assets, in particular low-return US government securities."

Sir, in reference to advising developing countries with the “Washington Consensus”, in November 2004 you kindly published a letter in which I wrote:

“Our bank supervisors in Basel are unwittingly controlling the capital flows in the world. How many Basel propositions will it take before they start realizing the damage they are doing by favoring so much bank lending to the public sector? In some developing countries, access to credit for the private sector is all but gone, and the banks are up to the hilt in public credits.”

So, there are two completely different bank systems:

Before 1988, one in which banks needed to hold the same capital against all assets, credit was allocated based on risk adjusted interest rates and the market considering the bank’s portfolio, accurately or not, values its capital.

After 1988, one risk weighted capital requirement banks where credit is allocated based on risk adjusted returns on equity, something which clearly depends on how much regulators have allowed their capital to be leveraged with each asset... clearly favoring government credit, which de facto implies bureaucrats know better what to do with (taxpayers') credit than e.g., small businesses and entrepreneurs. Communism!

Sir, I am of course just small fry, not even a PhD, but, if you have to choose between describing what has happened in the financial markets since 1988 as a “deregulation”, as Fukuyama opines, or an absolute statist and politically influenced misregulation, as Volcker valiantly confesses, who do you believe?

Sir, is this topic taboo… or just a too hot potato for the “Without fear and without favour” Financial Times?

PS. In Steven Solomon’s “The Confidence Game” 1995 we read: “On September 2, 1986, the fine cutlery was laid once again at the Bank of England governor’s official residence at New Change… The occasion was an impromptu visit from Paul Volcker… When the Fed chairman sat down with Governor Robin Leigh-Pemberton and three senior BoE officials, the topic he raised was bank capital…”

@PerKurowski