Showing posts with label economic recovery. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic recovery. Show all posts

April 28, 2014

We should not ignore the contentment of the structurally unemployed when measuring economic recovery.

Sir, though surely a healthy economy requires quite a dose of confidence, Wolfgang Münchau is quite correct in that “Confidence is a poor measure if economic health”, April 28.

And I sympathize entirely with the idea that time like ours “when the economy is inherently unstable, when it does not return to equilibrium-the steady state around which [we at least believe] it should normally fluctuate… [makes] forecasting difficult and unpleasant.

But I am not fully convinced that “the employment rate as a percentage of the working-age population” would be the best way to measure whether an economy is recovering. And I say that because a recovering economy might also signify an increase in the contentment of many structurally or voluntarily unemployed. For instance a recovering economy, would perhaps provide for a better return on the savings of all those who have been hit by the double whammy of losing a job and not earning enough on their savings.

Also, focusing more on the contentment of the unemployed might have a very special significance, as there can be little as socially disruptive as the discontent unemployed.