Global supply chains should and will change, as robots and automation substitute more and more for cheap labor.

Sir, Shawn Donnan, referring to a recent report by the World Bank writes that a “report by World Bank economists yesterday highlights the fragile state of one historically important engine of global growth — trade” “Policy uncertainty threatens trade growth, says World Bank” February 22.

And he follows up with “One of the big consequences of the explosion in trade agreements in recent decades has been the emergence of global supply chains. Such chains are widely seen by economists to have made businesses more efficient and to have helped boost productivity”

Indeed, but certainly more than policy uncertainty, what could currently affect global supply chains, is that these were based on cheap labor, and more and more cheap labor is being substituted by even cheaper and cheaper robots and automation.

What amazes me is that it is almost impossible to find any statistics; from for instance the World Bank, IMF and OECD, on how many jobs have effectively been taken over by robots and automation, for instance the last year. That to me sure represents a big lacking of data required for projecting tomorrow. 

@PerKurowski

Too well tuned?

Sir, Stefan Stern in “The supply chains that could bind unsuspecting managers”, November 28, argues that when everyone strives to be lean and efficient this could on a global scale create greater risks and vulnerability. He is right though it extends to much more than supply chains.

Martial arts legend Bruce Lee, who died at the age of only 32 is an example of how an organism could be in such a highly tuned and perfect condition that it could not resist a small external shock if the rumors that his death were caused by some sort of aspirin are true. In the same vein companies nowadays, pressured by the stock market’s expectations for the next quarterly results; the latest theories in corporate finance as to how squeeze out the last drop in results; and, perhaps, even some bit of creative accounting, might be so well-tuned (no little reserve fat left) that they would not be able to withstand any minor recession.

PS. Whenever I expose this theory, I can see in my wife’s eyes that she believes this is just my preparing an excuse for my growing—ok, grown—midline.

Stefan Stern supply chains risk