August 30, 2018

EU needs to find a president of the European Central Bank quite different from Mario Draghi… whatever it takes

Sir, you opine, “The most worthwhile tribute that European governments can make Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, is to find a successor who most closely replicates his attributes and has the best chance of continuing his success. There are few harder acts to follow in global policymaking than his. He has helped rewrite the central banking handbook, shepherding the euro through an existential threat from the sovereign debt crisis and the danger of a deflationary recession. “Next ECB chief should be in the Draghi mould” August 30. 

I disagree and believe that FT, at some point down the road, will have to eat up these words of praise for Draghi; who alsopreviously served as the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board from 2009 to 2011 and Governor of the Bank of Italy from 2005 to 2011.

Draghi, as a regulator, with the risk weighted capital requirements for banks was partt of the team that introduced a risk-aversion, which ignored all the valuable services banks provided, when acting as the societies’ designated risk-takers.

Draghi, as a regulator, ignoring conditional probabilities, supported risk weighted capital requirements for banks based on the perceived risk of assets and not based on how banks could manage those assets dependent on their own perceptions of risk. That distorted the allocation of credit, causing among other banks to fall over a precipice when chasing those AAA to AA rated securities they were allowed to leverage a mind-blowing 62.5 times with.

Draghi, as a regulator, was, is, a statist of first degree, for agreeing with risk weights of 0% for the sovereign and 100% for the citizen.

Draghi, as a European central banker, who must have known that the challenges the euro posed had not been taken care of, irresponsibly agreed when Greece was assigned a 0% risk weight, which caused its current tragedy.

What Draghi did in ECB, was just to act as the principal member of that kicking team that kicked the crisis-can down the road, willfully ignoring the fact that European grandchildren will suffer when that can begins to roll back on them.

Sir, in summary, the next ECB chief should know about the importance of risk taking, about conditional probabilities, should not be a statist, and should be able to refuse punishing a EU nation, like Greece, for the mistakes of EU authorities. 

So, whatever it takes, he should be very different from Draghi. I would hold that EU’s own chances of survival depends much on that. 

@PerKurowski