March 11, 2008

Better confused than wrong!

Sir Saskia Scholtes writes that “Agencies’ differences add to confusion” March 11, describing how credit rating agencies differ in their appreciation of companies in this case of bond insurance companies, to which I would just have to add a Hallelujah!, since it is clearly better being confused than wrong.

It is precisely the fact that the whole concept of risk relates to so many different variables that can be analyzed with so many possible methodologies over so many different time horizons, and that makes it impossible to come up with a true risk assessment, that the world should never have allotted so much power and influence to some few credit rating agencies.

The mess these credit rating agencies got the world into by all three of them giving prime ratings to securities collateralized with junk mortgages, is bust just a small example of why we should welcome more of the confusion that reigns in real life and that real investments are all about.