July 28, 2006

Should they now sue their Central Banks?

Warning, believing in your Central Bank is lethal for your pension plan!

Sir, Samuel Brittan, in “Central banks need not divine bubbles”, July 28, tells us, quite blasé, almost like shrugging some dust of his shoulders, that inflation, as measured, does not measure inflation, because although wheat, consumer goods, are cared for, cattle, capital assets, are royally ignored. 

The adjectives he uses in the process are ludicrous and absurd, but concludes in “Yet that is the perceived central bank doctrine today”. We are left a little bit confounded though with what he really means with “perceived” since reading further from what Brittan has to tell us it seems that it is indeed state of the art in how central banks try to measure inflation. 

Which leaves us now with the question, what are all those poor blokes that believed the inflation figures reported by their central bankers were for real and did such stupid things as invest in government debt, instead of a house, thinking it paid enough to cover for inflation? Should they now sue their central banks and central bankers for misrepresentation? 

Whatever, it sounds like making nursery rhymes out of Enrons and Parmalats. It is not that we believe it is easy to measure inflation and in fact it might be impossible. Nor can it be easy do to a central bank's job for that matter, but it is the arrogance by which they sell us the how good they are at it that really kills us.
 
It is a sad day when think-tanks are found out not to have been thinking for many years.