Poor Italy! So squeezed between inept Brussels’ technocrats and their own redistribution profiteers.

Sir, I read Miles Johnson’s and Davide Ghiglione’s  “Italy’s welfare gamble angers Brussels and worries business” November 10, and I cannot but think “Poor Italy”, squeezed between inept Brussels’ technocrats and redistribution profiteers.

“Italy’s welfare gamble”? That welfare which Brussels’ technocrats, for the purpose of bank capital requirements have with their Sovereign Debt Privileges of a 0% risk weight helped finance? Italy’s public debt is now about €2.450 billion, meaning over €40.000 per citizen? 

That 0% risk weight is alive and kicking even though Moody’s recently downgraded Italy's debt to “Baa3”, one notch above junk status and that even though it might not have yet considered that the euro is de facto not a real domestic (printable) currency for Italy. If that is not a welfare gamble by statist regulators on governments being able to deliver more than the private sector, what is? Poor Italy.

But then I read about a government proposal that could increase welfare payments to poor and unemployed Italians to as much as €780 a month but which eligibility and distribution criteria remain unclear and again I shiver. That sounds just as one more of those conditional plans redistribution profiteers love to invent in order to increase the value of their franchise. Poor Italy. 

For me a way out that would leave hope for the younger generation of Italians would have to include a restructuring of their public debt with a big haircut for their creditors; hand in hand with an unconditional universal basic income, that starts low, perhaps €100 a month, so as to have a chance to be fiscally sustainable.

And if that does not help, then Italy will have to count (again… as usual) on its inventive and forceful strictly citizen based “economia sommersa”, something that is not that bad an option either.

PS. Oops! I just forgot that most of that Italy debt is held by Italian banks, so perhaps a type of Brady bonds EU version could be used. Like Italy issuing €2.4 trillion in 40 years zero-coupon debt, getting an ECB guarantee for a substantial percentage of its face value, and allowing banks in Europe to hold these on book on face value; all so that Italy can use it to pay off its creditors could be a shooting from the hip alternative… and then of course have all pray for some inflation to reduce the value of that debt.

PS. I am not the one first speaking about Nicholas Brady, then US Treasury Secretary, approach in 1989. Here is William R. Rhodes “Time to end the eurozone’s ad hoc fixes” in FT November 2012.

@PerKurowski

What’s a rule-based global system worth when the rules are crazy and rulers do not want to discuss these?

How would an ordinary European citizen answer the question: Is Greece a trustworthy borrower? Whatever his answer, what would you think he would say if he was then informed that the European Commission, for the purpose of bank capital requirements assigned Greece, and all other eurozone members, a 0% risk weight? As it is easy to understand that helped to cause the tragic over-indebtedness of Greece and of many other sovereigns, like Italy. 

Sir, you now write, “The Armistice anniversary is a time to reflect that the peace and stability of Europe will require responsible German leadership” “Drawing lessons from the inferno of 1914-1918” November 10.

So let me ask you do you really think The European Commission, the European Central Bank, the European Parliament, all of them, had, responsibly, the lessons of the Versailles Treaty in mind, when they imposed armistice conditions on that capitulating eurozone sovereign debtor of Greece?

Sir, you know that I consider requiring bankers to hold more capital against what they perceive as risky than against what they perceive as safe a total lunacy. Yet, those who imposed the risk weighted bank capital requirements global rule do not even wish to discuss it. Yet, “Without fear and without favour” FT has not dared to ask for an explanation.

The only explanation we have been given about the standardized risk weights imposed on bank by the Basel Committee; those that allow banks to leverage only 8.3 times with assets rated below BB-, and a mind-boggling 62.5 times with assets rated AAA, is “An Explanatory Note on the Basel II IRB Risk Weight Functions” of July 2005.

That document, which totally ignoring conditional probabilities equates ex ante perceived risks with ex post dangers also states, “The model [is] portfolio invariant [because] taking into account the actual portfolio composition when determining capital for each loan - as is done in more advanced credit portfolio models - would have been a too complex task for most banks and supervisors alike.”

Sir, I must tell you, if that’s the rule-based global system Donald Trump might now be threatening, we should at least be thankful for him shaking up many things that need to be shaken up.

I do not like autocrats in my country, but neither do I like them among the global order rules setter.

PS. In the case of the 0% risk weight of sovereigns in the Eurozone that is made even crazier by the fact that de facto the Euro is not their domestic currency.

PS. Where do I come from? Here is an extract of, “The riskiness of country risk”, September 2002: “What a difficult job to evaluate risk! If they underestimate the risk of a country, the latter will most assuredly be inundated with fresh loans and leveraged to the hilt. The result will be a serious wave of adjustments sometime down the line. If a country becomes bankrupt due to your mistake, it could drag you kicking and screaming before an International Court, accusing you of violating human rights. If I were to be in the position of evaluating country risk, I would insure that the process is totally transparent, even though this takes away some of the shine of the profession and obligates me to sacrifice some of my personal market value.”

@PerKurowski

Any banker, like Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein, who does not ask the borrower “What are you going to use the money for?” should not be allowed to be a banker.

Sir, David Crow and Laura Noonan, with respect to the Malaysian financier-cum-socialite known as Jho Low scandal that I know nothing about write, “Goldman has always maintained that it did not know how the proceeds of the bond offering were spent” “Blankfein revelation piles pressure on Goldman”

I guess just like Lloyd Blankfein was not interested in how that notoriously human rights violating regime of Maduro’s in Venezuela was going to use the funds Goldman Sachs provided it, because all he cared about was whether the risk premiums were juicy enough to support his bonus aspirations.

Sir, again, corrupting not some government official but the regime itself, by offering fresh money in return for the possibility of huge returns, sounds to me like something quite punishable by US’s Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

We are now in November 2018, and Mr Blankfein has not found it within himself to yet utter the smallest “Venezuelans, I am so sorry”

Sir, what kind of elite do we have when a Lloyd Blankfein still gets invited to all kind of academic and social engagements? If the elite gives up on holding their own accountable, it is lost. 

@PerKurowski

Why should Donald Trump or Gillian Tett worry about US’s public debt when the experts, the bank regulators, assign it a 0% risk?

Sir, Gillian Tett, making it a Democrat vs. Republican issue, expresses anxiety about the US debt and suggests “a new version of the bilateral Simpson-Bowles Commission” “Investors start to fret about ballooning US public debt” November 9.

Sir, you know the regulators, for the purpose of bank capital requirements, assigned a risk weight of 0% to the sovereign debt of the USA and one of 100% to unrated American citizens (except when buying houses). That translates into that the interest rate politicians see is a subsidized interest rate, not its real cost. That dooms the US public debt to become, sooner or later, unsustainable… and especially so if markets begin to feel the US is losing its absolute military supremacy.

The bilateral Simpson-Bowles Commissionin 2010 presented many important recommendations that should be pursued, but it did not even mention the need to eliminate the regulatory subsidy to public debt.

Sir, unfortunately, getting rid of that distortion is no easy task, as regulators have really painted themselves into a corner. Can you imagine if regulators where to announce that the risk weight of US debt has been increased from 0% to 0.01%?

PS. In 1988, when with Basel I, statist regulators assigned that 0% risk weight the US debt was $2.6 trillion, now it is more than $22 trillion... but what has that to do with anything?

 

@PerKurowski

If not in US dollar notes under Warren Buffet’s mattress, what is Berkshire Hathaway’s “$104bn cash pile invested in?

Sir, you conclude that “Regulators and governments would do well to study whether the huge increase in repurchases has damaged business growth and capital formation” “Record share buybacks should be raising alarms” November 8.

Of course they should but let us be very clear, since that has been going on for quite some time so, if they have not done it yet, then shame on them.

For instance in July 2014 Camilla Hall, in “Bankers warn over rising US business lending” wrote, “Charles Peabody, a bank analyst at Portales Partners in New York, has warned that while it is hard to extrapolate what is driving commercial and industrial lending, if it is to fund acquisitions or share buybacks it may not indicate a strengthening economy. “It is loan growth, just not sustainable,” he said.” 

And therein Hall also wrote, “A banking lending executive at a large regional lender said ‘Traditionally banks have been very cautious of that’.”Of course, you and I know Sir that banker should not be throwing the first stone, since bankers too have morphed, thanks to the risk weighted capital requirements, from being savvy loan officers into being financial engineers dedicated to minimizing the capital their bank is required to hold.

Also, in 2017, when discussing IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report, John Plender wrote: “Low yields, compressed spreads, abundant financing and the relatively high cost of equity capital, it observes, have encouraged a build-up of financial balance sheet leverage as corporations have bought back equity and raised debt levels…Rising debt has been accompanied by worsening credit quality and elevated default risk.”

But what really caught my attention today was your reference to Berkshire Hathaway’s “$104bn cash pile [it holds] keeping its powder mostly dry for future deals — if, say, the market correction continues.”

How do you keep that powder dry? Since most probably it is not in dollar notes under Warren Buffet’s mattress, what is it invested in? We know that in accounting terms “Cash” includes a lot of investments, but in the real life, “Cash” does not always turn out to be real cash. In Venezuela you could now fill a whole mattress with high denomination bolivar notes, and still not be able to buy yourself a coffee with it. 

In a world in which regulators have assigned a 0% risk weight to for instance the already $22tn and fast growing US debt, which, if nothing changes, would doom that safe-haven to become very dangerous, is not Cash just another speculative investment?

@PerKurowski

Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein has also a big question to answer us Venezuelans.

Sir, Brooke Masters writes that when “Sued by the US Securities and Exchange Commission over allegations it had misled clients about mortgage-backed securities… Lloyd Blankfein… launched a top-to-bottom cultural review and spent 18 months visiting clients to reassure them that Goldman had got the message on ethics.” “Goldman Sachs has big questions to answer” November 7.

So Masters rightly asks so what happened as “Last week, the US Department of Justice revealed that two former senior Goldman bankers had been criminally charged with helping to loot 1MDB, a Malaysian state investment fund that authorities allege was victim of one of the biggest frauds of all time.”

Sir, I have my own question. After Mr Blankfein’s much-touted ethics revamp in 2011, what on earth was he doing lending, in May 2017, to a notoriously human rights violating odious regime, namely Venezuela’s Maduro’s?

In fact, as I see it, corrupting not some government official but the regime itself, by offering fresh money in return for the possibility of huge returns, sounds to me as something quite punishable by US’s Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

We are now in November 2018, and Mr Blankfein has not found it within himself to yet utter the smallest “Venezuelans, I am so sorry”

Sir, what kind of elite do we have when a Lloyd Blankfein still gets invited to all kind of academic and social engagements?

@PerKurowski

What would happen to German Bunds, denominated in Euros, if Italy refuses to walk the plank like Greece?

Sir, I am not sure I follow Kate Allen’s discussion about the future of German Bunds. It is almost as she was discussing these as denominated in Deutsche Mark. The fact is these are in Euros, the same currency other weaker eurozone sovereign-debtors have their bonds denominated in. For instance, what would happen if Italy refuses to walk the plank like Greece? “German bond buyers bank on smooth withdrawal from QE”, November 6.

The European Union has clearly not dedicated itself wholeheartedly to solve the fundamental challenges posed by the adoption of the Euro by so many of its members, twenty years ago. For instance the European Commission has wasted its time on so many issues of minuscule importance that were really none of its business. As a result that Euro, which was created to unite Europe, might now disunite it. 

So what would happen if the Euro breaks in pieces? I have no idea but, in the case of Germany, if asked, I assume holders of German Bunds would probably accept to convert these into German Neo-DM Bunds. But of course that would also put an end to the eurozone “weaklings” subsidizing Germany’s competitiveness… like what if 1US$ = 0.75 Neo-DM? It would be a whole new ball game for everyone, Germany included!

Sir, as I recently wrote to you, for all those who want a peaceful European Union to thrive, which of course should include both Britain’s Brexiters and Remainers, the acts commemorating the end of WWI, provides an opportunity for important reflections.

In this respect the European Commission, the European Central Bank, the European Parliament, all of them, when imposing armistice conditions on capitulating eurozone sovereign debtors, should do well remembering the Versailles Treaty.

PS. Greece walked the plank

@PerKurowski

The people in the poorest part of the US have no reason whatsoever to blame Trump for their desperation… yet.

Sir, Rana Foroohar writes,“It never ceases to amaze me that a man I consider the most venal and rapacious president in history has managed to sell desperate people in the poorest parts of the US on the idea that he is their saviour”, “America’s vote marks a culture shift” November 5.

Why would that be surprising? The people in the poorest part of the US have no reason whatsoever to blame Trump for their desperation… yet.

Foroohar writes,“Most Americans, liberal and conservative, are united in their definition of what constitutes “just” business behaviour — they believe it is about spreading the wealth, and improving worker pay and treatment.”

Really? Would most Americans, liberal and conservative, not believe that what constitutes “just” business behaviour — is first and foremost to create that economic growth that could generate opportunities for them?

Foroohar concludes, “It would be wise for both politicians and business to focus on those ideas that bring people together, rather than those that drive them apart”. 

What does she mean by “And business”? Except for some truly minuscule exceptions we have not seen any ordinary business dedicating itself to driving people apart. That is normally very bad for business. What we sure have seen is way too many politicians, activists and journalists, being in the business of polarization… many of them even very happy of being able to exploit Trump in order to improve the profitability of their franchise.

What would they all be doing, and writing about, was there no Trump? They better thank their lucky star.

@PerKurowski

EU, when imposing armistice conditions on your capitulating eurozone sovereign debtors, remember the Versailles Treaty.

Sir, Simon Kuper referring to historical events like the Versailles Treaty writes, “In international relations, treat even your opponents like long-term business partners. You will meet again, and if you hurt them for short-term gain, they won’t forget.” “Lessons from 1918 for today’s world leaders”, November 3.

And Kuper follows it up with, “Peace in the region cannot remain the EU’s selling point. Precisely because Europeans have come to take peace for granted, they now (rightly) ask: ‘What have you done for me lately?’ ”

Sir, if I were a Greek citizen, and perhaps this would soon apply to an Italian too, I would ask and tell the European Union authorities, the European Commission, the following: 

“Why on earth did you assign our sovereign, who you must know that in terms of fiscal sustainability and efficient governing is not the brightest star by far, an absolute zero percent credit risk? That allowed banks all over Europe to lend to our sovereign against no capital at all, something that caused our sovereign to get hold of more and more easy money… until it could no more.

But besides this, what I really want to know is: Even though you have provided some cash flow easing, which helps of course, as it was partly or even mostly your fault, why did you force on us Greeks all that debt and did not ask European banks to share more in the losses? Thanks much to your mistake and your armistice terms, we are now saddled with about €345.000 million of debt, more than €30.000 million for each Greek, and it is all denominated in a currency which de facto is not entirely our domestic currency.

Do you think that newborn Greeks, when they grow up and find out, are going to keep a cool head about all this and be able to sing the EU’s anthem “Ode to Joy” with enthusiasm?”

Sir, in short European “world leaders gathering in Paris next week to commemorate 1918” should reflect on what they might be doing today when imposing unrealistic armistice conditions on those who have to capitulate on not being able to service their sovereign debt.

PS. Sir, as a Venezuelan I can assure you that those looking to bailout those of theirs financial profiteers who provided finance to our corrupt human right’s violating regime, will not find us Venezuelans accepting that without a fight.

@PerKurowski

Bank systems’ “Fifth Risk”: When shit really hits the fan, banks will be holding especially little capital.

Sir, Brooke Masters reviews Michael Lewis’ “The Fifth Risk”, a book that got its titled when John MacWilliams, a former Goldman Sachs investment banker told the author about the “fifth risk”, referring to ‘project management’, the risk society runs when it falls into the habit of responding to long-term risks with short-term solutions.” “Why boring government matters”, November 3.

Well-intentioned bank regulators, wanting to make our bank system safer, and came up with risk weighted capital requirements based on the perceived credit risks. If the perceived credit risks (those that bankers saw and used to adjust to with size of exposure and risk premiums) do not represent the most immediate short-term outlook on risk for banks what does? 

The real long-term risk is obviously that something that was ex ante perceived as safe, and with which banks could therefore build up large exposures, suddenly, ex post turned out very risky. The regulators with their short-term solutions only guaranteed that when shit really hit the fan, banks would stand naked with especially little capital.

Brooke Masters quotes Ronald Reagan with “the nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help’ ”.

Indeed! Just like when regulators told us “we credit rating agencies know all about risks so, with our regulations, we will make your bank systems safer”. As a result they gave us the 2008 crisis, way too much credit for house purchases, and mountains of 0% risk weighted sovereign debt around the world. If only they had stayed home.

Sir, “good boring government” is indeed needed, but beware, few things as dangerous as bored bureaucrats… they’re truly frightening.

@PerKurowski

Why is it good for all to allocate their risk premiums adjusted investments according to the needs of their portfolio… except for banks?

Sir, Jonathan Wheatley writes:“Here’s a mystery: if emerging market debt as an asset class has had such a torrid time this year, why has it not suffered more outflows?” And to answer it he quotes Paul Greer, portfolio manager at Fidelity International: “People will look at what they are getting in the rest of the world, and they’ll say you know what? We’re getting paid for the risks.” “EM bonds resilient as investors are well rewarded for risks” November 2.

That which sounds so perfectly logical, is not what the banks can do, since the risk weighted capital requirements take no consideration whatsoever of the risk premiums banks can obtain. 

To top it up, these weights are formally portfolio invariant. Since you might think that because I am obsessively against that regulation I will give a biased version of it, let me extract verbatim the following from the horse's mouth, “An Explanatory Note on the Basel II IRB (internal ratings-based) Risk Weight Functions” 

“The model [is] portfolio invariant and so the capital required for any given loan does only depend on the risk of that loan and must not depend on the portfolio it is added to.”

And the reason given for that mindboggling simplification is: “This characteristic has been deemed vital in order to make the new IRB framework applicable to a wider range of countries and institutions. Taking into account the actual portfolio composition when determining capital for each loan - as is done in more advanced credit portfolio models - would have been a too complex task for most banks and supervisors alike.”

Besides the disastrous effect in our economy the distortion in the allocation of credit, credit risk-weighted capital requirements produce, is to guarantee especially large exposures, to what’s perceived as especially safe, against especially little capital, which dooms or bank system to especially severe crises, like that in 2008.

And this has been going on during 30 years and no one is allowed to ask regulators: Why do you believe that what’s perceived as risky is more dangerous to our bank system than what’s perceived as safe?

Clearly that is seemingly one of those questions that shall not be asked.

@PerKurowski

With so much debt in a currency that is really not their domestic one, has Greece really made it to the other side?

Tony Barber opines “Greece is finding its way back to domestic stability and a secure place in the European order” “Greece shows how a maverick nation can recover from disorder” November 1.

Really? Greece debt is around €345bn euros, about €32.000 per citizen, in a currency that for real practical (printing) purposes is not their own?

That is a result of ignoring the fundamental Gordian Knot in European Union, by means of EC’s Sovereign Debt Privileges, that of assigning an absolute zero credit risk to sovereigns in the eurozone who are indebted in a currency that is really not their absolute own.

Britain and Sweden resisted adopting the euro. Had Britain done so, then Brexit would have been a reality almost unanimously supported, a long time ago.

I do sincerely suggest that any Remain proponents, if only to safeguard their own reputation, require a response from EU of how it will go about to unknot that knot, before it brings EU down.

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/2018/09/in-case-of-greece-eu-violated.html

https://teawithft.blogspot.com/2018/10/eu-authorities-assigning-italy-like.html

@PerKurowski

The Honduran migrants chase a more reachable American dream, so as to be able to chase a more unreachable Honduran dream

Sir, Jude Webber writes: The scope of Wilson Flores’ American dream — to send money home to his mother and younger siblings, and eventually to go back to Honduras and open a shop — is modest.” “Honduran migrants chase the American dream” October 31.

It is a sad dream. Even if Flores manages to get into America and get a job, the money he will send home to his mother and younger siblings, will also be helping to finance the permanence in power of the system that made him migrate in the first place, and so he might never be able to go back and realize his Honduran dream.

I was an Executive Director at the World Bank, 2002-04, representing, among other, Honduras. There I did what I could to remind everyone that when compared to the remittances sent home by the Central-American migrants, all other support by donors and multilateral institutions were peanuts. In fact I repeated whenever I could that for instance what the Honduran migrants earned gross in the US, was more than the GDP of Honduras, which should make you wonder sometimes where the real Honduras is.

And I protested loudly when by means of diaspora bonds many tried to capture even more of the migrants’ savings, to finance their governments even more. 

On top of it all, those Honduras migrants had/have much less influence in their homeland than foreigners…and so I frequently argued “No remittances Without Representation.” 

If host nations, like the United States wanted to reduce the flow of migrants, one way positive way would be to help the migrants gain political power in their homelands, so as to help them create the conditions that could allow them to return… and live their Honduran dream. As an absolute minimum the migrants should have a sizable representation in their respective congresses or parliaments.

Down the line, if a majority of the citizens of a nation have migrated, like 51%, and if they suddenly wanted to take back their country by democratic powers, or even with force, would that be classified as foreign intervention, as an intromission into a sovereign’s domains?

Sir, more than a decade later, these sincere concerns I had, are sadly not longer just about my friends from Honduras or El Salvador, they are much closer home; they are about my landsmen the Venezuelans. For a starter what would now be happening in Venezuela, without family remittances?

@PerKurowski

Our bank regulators, just like "Sulley" Sullivan and Mike Wazowski, fear the wrong thing.

Sir, Martin Wolf, discussing US-China relation ends with, “Our enemy is not China. Have confidence in our values of freedom and democracy. Understand that it is on the creation of new ideas that we depend, not the protection of old ones. That in turn depends on freedom of inquiry and openness to the best talent from around the world. If western countries lose these, they will lose the future. As the greatest US president of the 20th century declared: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” “America must reset its rhetoric on China’s rise” October 31.

Absolutely! But why then it is so hard to get Mr. Wolf to understand that current risk weighted capital requirements for banks, which so dangerously distorts the allocation of credit to the real economy, is nothing but an expression of fear… and to top it up a completely unfounded one. 

Just as "Sulley" Sullivan and Mike Wazowski in Monsters Inc. thought that children were toxic to them, the regulators are convinced that what’s perceived as risky is what’s dangerous to our bank system. Of course it is what’s perceived as safe that poses the real dangers.

Wolf asks, “What has been the most important event of 2018 so far?” He answers “arguably, it was the speech on US-China relations by Mike Pence, US vice-president, on October 4.”

I would hold that the most disastrous important event during the last three decades was the introduction, in 1988, with the Basel Accord, of these so utterly silly and naïve risk adverse regulations. That year the Western world said no ti the risk-taking that has been the oxygen of its development.

Sir, again, let me remind you that just for a starter, had no banks been allowed to leverage with assets over 60 times only because these were AAA rated, or limitless with loans to sovereigns like Greece and Italy, we would all be in a much different and surely better world.

When is Martin Wolf going to stop protecting old senseless fears?

God make us daring!

They inject loads of liquidity, keep interests ultra-low and distort bank credit… and then they call the system results, systemic risks

Sir, Colby Smith reports “the booming $1.3tn market for leveraged loans — or those extended to highly indebted companies that are then packaged up and sold to investors as bonds — has faced a tide of criticism from central bankers and financial watchdogs. Former US Fed chair Janet Yellen warned of the “systemic risk” rising from the loans.” “Systemic risk fears intensify over leveraged loan boom” October 30.

Smith quotes Douglas Peebles, the chief investment officer for fixed income at AllianceBernstein with “Investors are deathly afraid of rising interest rates so the floating rate component paired with the fact that these loans have seniority over unsecured bonds set up an easy elevator pitch to buyers that may not be fully aware of the risks”

Why are investors deathly afraid of rising interest rates? Clearly because the rates being so low for so long, paired with huge liquidity injections has built up a mountain of fix rate bonds that few dare touch; except those who by means of lower capital requirements are given strong incentives to go there, like banks and insurance companies.

In this respect “the booming $1.3tn market for leveraged loans” is not a systemic risk but a system result. That regulation that increases the exposure of banks and insurance companies to long term fixed rate bonds, and thereby increases the interest rate risk, that is a real systemic risk. The problem though is that central bankers and regulators will never want to understand they are the greatest generators of systemic risks… as Upton Sinclair said “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

@PerKurowski

If Paul Volcker leaves an explanation for why a person like he never saw the dangers of the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, it would be a truly important legacy.

Martin Wolf, the Chief Economics Commentator of the FT, rightly praises Paul Volcker for his gigantic work, as chairman of the Federal Reserve between August 1979 and July 1987 of slewing the run away inflation of those years. How could one like me who in 2006 wrote about the long-term benefits of a hard landing, disagree with that? “The last testament of Paul Volcker”, October 30.

But then Wolf opines: “Yet, unlike many who should have known better, he understood that the central bank is responsible for financial stability, too. The book is full of Volcker’s painful experiences with the financial sector and his deep doubts about it… 

It would be too much to insist that the financial crisis would not have happened if Volcker had been Fed chairman in the 2000s. But he would have done his best to prevent it.”

And there Wolf and I part ways, sadly, because Volcker was also a true hero of mine. As I found out, in March 2016, Volcker is one of the main original driving forces behind the insane risk weighted capital requirements for banks; so he sure helped to cause the crisis.

What could have come into the mind of a man like Wolf describes, “endowed to the highest degree with what the Romans called virtus (virtue): moral courage, integrity, sagacity, prudence and devotion to the service of country”, to consider that this way of interfering in the allocation of bank credit to the real economy, could bring stability without risking any other serious consequences? An effort to answer that would also be something very valuable to see included in a Paul Volcker’s testament,

PS: Charles Goodhart’s “The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision: A History of the early years 1974-1997” 2011, Cambridge Press Goodman (p.167) refers to Steven Solomon’s “The Confidence Game: How Unelected Central Bankers Are Governing the Changed Global Economy” (1995). In it we read:

On September 2, 1986, the fine cutlery was laid once again at the Bank of England governor’s official residence at New Change… The occasion was an impromptu visit from Paul Volcker… When the Fed chairman sat down with Governor Robin Leigh-Pemberton and three senior BoE officials, the topic he raised was bank capital…

At dinner the governor’s hopes had been modest: to find areas of sufficient convergence of goals and regulatory concepts to achieve separate but parallel upgrading moves… 

Yet the momentum it galvanized… produced an unanticipated breakthrough of a fully articulated, common bank capital adequacy regime for the United States and United Kingdom. This in turn catalyzed one of the 1980’s most remarkable achievements – the first worldwide protocol on the definitions, framework, and minimum standards for the capital adequacy of international active banks…

They literally wiped the blackboard clean, then explored designing a new risk-weighted capital adequacy for both countries… 

It included… a five-category framework of risk-weighted assets… It required banks to hold the full capital standard against the highest-risk loans, half the standard for the second riskiest category, a quarter for the middle category, and so on to zero capital for assets, such as government securities, without meaningful risk of credit default.”

@PerKurowski

EU authorities, assigning Italy, like Greece, a super duper investment grade status, are the original sinners.

Sir, Wolfgang Münchau writes,“The main instrument of coercion in the eurozone is not its fiscal rules, but the power of the European Central Bank to withdraw funding from national banks. This is not a discretionary power, but one that is automatically triggered once a country‘s sovereign debt loses investment grade status. If the banks have large holdings of their home countries’ debt, as is the case in Italy, they are setting themselves up for failure if their governments run an unsound fiscal policy” “Italy is setting itself up for a monumental fiscal failure” October 29.

“Triggered once a country‘s sovereign debt loses investment grade status”? Should in the first place Italy have gotten the super-duper investment grade status assigned to it by EU authorities? By mean of “sovereign debt preferences” they assigned it a 0% risk, which allow banks to hold Italian public debt against zero capital? Italy’s like Greece’s like many other and perhaps all other sovereign, the main problem is not losing that status but having been awarded it. 

And even if your 0% risk weight would be based on the nation being able, in nominal terms, to repay 100% of its debt, using the printer, the hard truth for Italy, and for all other eurozone countries is that though eurozone investors holding sovereign debt denominated in euros have the right to consider holding assets in their domestic currency, the eurozone sovereigns who owe such debt do not have  an absolute right to consider they owe it in their domestic currency.

In a 2002 Op-ed titled “The Riskiness of Country Risk” I wrote, “If the risk of a given country is underestimated it will most assuredly be leveraged to the hilt. The result will be a serious wave of adjustments sometime down the line.” That, which hit Greece, now awaits Italy, courtesy of EU.

Sir, it is not obsessive me again. September 2013, in FT, Jens Weidmann, the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank begged, “Stop encouraging banks to buy government debt”. What has EU done about that? Nada! 

Münchau ends with “The eurozone’s dysfunctionality has many origins. It would be unfair to blame it all on Italy. The rise in Italian spreads is evidence that the eurozone crisis never ended. It just fell dormant for a while.”

That is entirely correct, the saddest part though is that the challenges posed by the euro were known, from the get-go.

Sir, as I’ve told you many times before, it is truly mind-boggling how in all the overheated Brexit/Remain discussions that divide Britain, so little attention has been given to the EUs own very delicate conditions.

@PerKurowski

Those who fell for the “We will make your bank systems safer with our risk weighted capital requirements” populism should not throw the first stone

Sir, Martin Wolf reviewing three books related to the rise of populism writes “Populist forces are on the rise across the transatlantic world … It may also prove to be a historical turning point, away from liberal democracy, global capitalism, or both.”“The price of populism” October 27.

Indeed, but to me that started some decades ago when bank regulators, as if they where clairvoyants, told us they could make our banks systems safe by imposing risk weighted capital requirements on banks. “Wow, risk-weighted, that’s sure scientific!” 

Sir, if that’s not populism what is? The world, FT and even Martin Wolf fell for it, lock stock and barrel.

Referring to Robert Kuttner’s “Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism?” Wolf agrees when Kuttner mentions the “incompetent deregulation of finance, especially the growth of short-term cross-border capital flows and the plethora of regulatory loopholes.”

Really? When regulators allowed with Basel II to leverage 62.5 times with assets human fallible credit rating agency have assigned AAA to AA rating, what more loopholes do you really need?

Kuttner also argues against “the disastrous counter-revolution of the 1980s and the relaunch of deregulated capitalism” NO! What “deregulated capitalism” can there be when regulators assign a risk weight of 0% to the sovereign and one of 100% to the unrated citizens? That Sir is regulated crony statism.

@PerKurowski

What could “megaprojects” have taught us about the EU and the euro?

Sir, Tim Harford, with the help of Bent Flyvbjerg, “perhaps the world’s leading authority on ‘megaprojects’”, analyzes Brexit “What megaprojects can teach us about Brexit” October 26.

It is a useful exercise though I keep on being surprised by how little attention is given to other closely related megaprojects such as that of the European Union and the euro. 

A complete Brexit project should analyze the costs for Britain of EU not solving the much-ignored challenges the euro poses to EU, as these could be huge. Anyone proposing a Remain, should at least try to get a clear answer from EU on what it intends to do to make absolutely certain the euro will not bring EU down, or if that happens that at least non-euro members are not called to share in its costs.

I have no idea if the EU/euro project was “prepared thoroughly”, without “well-known cognitive biases”, or if it was carried out by “an experienced team”.

But when it comes to “try to break a large project into smaller, standalone chunks, so that the failure of one is not a failure of everything” clearly that’s not the case here, since the failure of the euro could quite likely bring the EU down.

The “everyone having an incentive to make things move smoothly” is doubtful too. Surplus countries find it easier to live with a euro weakened by deficit countries, though that does not work the other way round.

With respect to having an early warning system, so problems can be spotted and fixed before they grow, I seriously doubt it exists. Especially since EU authorities seriously compounded any euro challenges with statist “Sovereign Debt Privileges”, that which assigns a 0%capital requirements for banks when holding eurozone’ sovereign debts denominated in euros... a currency that in most generous terms could qualify as quasi domestic.

The challenges for EU of the euro must have been well known.

@PerKurowski

Paul Volcker warns public administration training is no longer on universities’ radar. Neither seems conditional probabilities and Bayes’ rule to be

Sir, interviewed by Gillian Tett, Paul Volcker’s tells her, “I would like my legacy to be some attention to public service. When I grew up good government was a good slogan. But now the phrase ‘good government’ is a mockery [and] universities have effectively abandoned practical public administration training, focusing instead on ‘policy’",“Volcker sets a challenge for the next generation” October 26. 

And Ms. Tett laments, “Few students want to make the type of financial sacrifices that Mr Volcker did for many decades, in the name of public service”

That concern has great merits, especially because the alternative would be to see our public service posts filled with experts in negotiating what crony statism could have to offer.

The Paul Volcker as Fed chair in the 1970s crushing inflation was a hero of mine. Unfortunately I woke up to the fact he helped doom to failure our banking system.

Getting the clue from Charles Goodhart’s “The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision: A History of the Early Years 1974-1997”, in Steven Solomon's “The Confidence Game: How Unelected Central Bankers Are Governing the Changed Global Economy” of 1995 I read:

“On September 2, 1986, the fine cutlery was laid once again at the Bank of England governor’s official residence at New Change… The occasion was an impromptu visit from Paul Volcker… When the Fed chairman sat down with Governor Robin Leigh-Pemberton and three senior BoE officials, the topic he raised was bank capital…

Adequate capital – the bank’s buffer against bankrupting loss- was the keystone of a central banker’s mission to uphold financial system safety and soundness.

They literally wiped the blackboard clean, then explored designing a new risk-weighted capital adequacy for both countries… 

It included… a five-category framework of risk-weighted assets… It required banks to hold the full capital standard against the highest-risk loans, half the standard for the second riskiest category, a quarter for the middle category, and so on to zero capital for assets, such as government securities, without meaningful risk of credit default.”

That led to the Basel Accord, Basel I in 1988. And of course, setting the capital requirements for the banks based on the risks that bankers cleared the most for, credit risk, had to dangerously distort the allocation of bank credit to the real economy. As I say over and over again, any risk, even if perfectly perceived, will cause the wrong actions if excessively considered.

Suffices to say that 100% of the assets that caused the especially large 2007-08 crisis were assets that, because they were perceived as especially safe, generated especially low capital requirements for the banks.

When I consider the total silence by universities on the consequences for the stability of our banking system and for the dynamism of our economies produced by the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, I am also saddened.

Universities, like Harvard Business School, do have “Conditional Probabilities and Bayes’ rule” on the curriculum. Could it be that professors are kept too busy preparing these courses so to have time to look out at what’s happening in the world? Or could it be their students, like Paul Volcker, never understood them.

Sir, wake up! When hubris filled besserwisser regulators tell you: “We will make your bank system safer with our risk-weighted capital requirements”, as if they were great clairvoyants, and you believe them, you have fallen for some pure, unabridged and very dangerous populism. 

The risk weighted capital requirements for banks guarantee especially large exposures, to what’s perceived as especially safe, against especially little capital, which dooms bank systems to especially severe crises.

PS. If regulators want to use risk weighted bank capital requirements, these should be based not on the credit risk of assets per se, but on the risk for the bank system the assets pose, conditioned on how risks are perceived and acted on by bankers. Who has the power to tell them so?

@PerKurowski

Italy’s mostly domestic debt is denominated and must be served, in a mostly foreign currency, the euro.

Sir, Isabelle Mateos y Lago informs that “the bulk of sovereign debt is owed to Italian residents rather than eurozone governments.” “Greek debt crisis echoes resound in Italy’s face-off with Brussels” October 25.

EU’s authorities assigned to all sovereigns using the euro, by means of something called “Sovereign Debt Privileges”, for purposes of the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, a 0% risk weight

The only way one could foreseeable defend such outright statist idiocy, is with the argument that nations are always able to nominally pay their debt by printing themselves out of too much debt. Unfortunately these euro nations do not have their own euro-printing machine.

The challenges with the adoption of the euro twenty years ago were immense and surely known by many. Myself, far away from Europe, in Venezuela, in November 1998 published an Op-Ed titled “Burning the bridges in Europe”. In it I wrote: 

“The possibility that the European countries will subordinate their political desires to the whims of a common Central Bank that may be theirs but really isn’t, is not a certainty. Exchange rates, while not perfect, are escape valves. By eliminating this valve, European countries must make their economic adjustments in real terms. This makes these adjustments much more explosive.”

So here we are with mindboggling little having been done to solve the euro challenges. Pushing more debt on needing sovereigns basically just kicked the can containing the euro’s problems down the road.

Mateos y Lago concludes: “Italy is too big and strong to be pushed around. So Italians will decide their own fate. The others should redouble efforts to survive this potential wrecking ball. This means adopting European Stability Mechanism instruments that would allow near instant access to OMT to well-run countries suffering from contagion, and provide some form of collective insurance against bank runs for institutions that meet agreed criteria” Indeed but that is again just pushing the euro challenge forward upon the next in line.

That, to me, sounds just like “Let’s kick the euro-problem can down the road again!”

Sir, as I’ve told you many times before, it is also mindboggling how in all the overheated Brexit/Remain discussions, so little attention has been given to the EUs very delicate conditions

@PerKurowski

Is Italy’s 0% risk weighted sovereign debt in euros really denominated in their own currency? NO!

Sir, on the eve of the euro, November 1998, in an Op-ed titled “Burning the bridges in Europe” I wrote: “The possibility that the European countries will subordinate their political desires to the whims of a common Central Bank that may be theirs but really isn’t, is not a certainty. Exchange rates, while not perfect, are escape valves. By eliminating this valve, European countries must make their economic adjustments in real terms. This makes these adjustments much more explosive.”

Now you write: “On Tuesday the European Commission, taking a step without precedent in the euro’s 20-year life, demanded that Italy should re-submit its 2019 budget” “Roman theatre clashes with the EU rule book” October 25.

EC’s demand is the direct consequence of Italy no longer possessing the escape valve that a devaluation of their lira used to signify. Not only that. As Italy’s debt is no longer denominated in liras, it will not really have the domestic “benefit” of inflation in their own devalued currency. It is now supposed, like Greece, to serve its debt in euros partly made stronger, by surplus countries like Germany. 

To rub salt into the wound, EU authorities, the European Commission, for the purpose of the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, by means of something known as “Sovereign Debt Privileges” or “Equity Capital Privilege”, assigned a 0% risk weight to Italy, which of course had to doom it to unsustainable public debt.

Sir, it is mindboggling how little EU has done to really confront the challenges posed by the euro, those that if unresolved will bring the EU down.

Similarly, it is mindboggling how in all overheated Brexit/Remain discussions, so little attention has been given to the EUs very delicate conditions. How would history recount if the day after Britain capitulates and hands over its Remain, the EU would break up?

Sir, again, I am strongly in favor of the European Union, but not a Banana Union run by eurocrats whose children or grandchildren do most certainly not know how to sing the European Union’s anthem, and if they did, would never put as much enthusiasm into it as Sofia Goggia did when singing her Italy’s national anthem at the Winter Olympics of 2017. 

@PerKurowski

It suffices for one single nation to set a high tax on carbon emissions and share out its revenues among all its citizens, to really begin saving our pied-a-terre.

Sir, Martin Wolf, whether it is true or not, is absolutely correct calling out: “It is five minutes to midnight on climate change”. We have no right to ignore that threat, even if its possibilities were low. “Inaction over climate change is shameful” October 23.

Wolf asks and answers: “So what needs to change? Net global CO2, methane and nitrous oxide emissions would need to fall to zero” though he also observes. “This is very unlikely to happen. That is no longer because it is technically impossible. It is because it is politically painful.”

It should not be! If only one nation went ahead and placed a big tax on carbon emissions, and shared out all resulting tax revenues equally, unconditionally, among all its citizens that would be a game changer… many would be politically pressured to jump aboard saving the planet that way.

Why does it not happen? Quite simply, the redistribution profiteers, those who profit from negotiating conditions, won’t touch with a ten feet pole an unconditional pay like this, less it spreads to other areas of their franchise, for instance by means of a Universal Basic Income.

Do I know? I come from Venezuela where nothing similar to its current tragedy would have happened had its oil revenues been shared out equally to all Venezuelans, and yet that possibility is rarely mentioned by the opposition, because there’s always an infinite pool of aspirants to be the next redistributors on turn.

Paris Accord? To me it was just a great photo-op for redistribution and fight against climate change profiteers that would do little to improve the chances for my grandchildren to live better.

More than a year ago the Climate Leadership Council proposed a carbon tax along the lines of what I describe here… seemingly they were silenced!

PS. For Mexico City, to combat pollution, I proposed just that..

@PerKurowski

Most of those who either preach or negotiate free trade are just like a Peeping Tom in a nudist camp.

Sir, Alan Beattie, referring to the possible escalation of trade wars writes: “At the time the WTO is most needed, its failings become ever more manifest. Without reform, the organization itself will suffer severe, possibly fatal, collateral damage from the US-China struggle” "A global trading system under fire” October 22.

Beattie also quotesPascal Lamy, a former head of the WTO: “Whether we like Trump or not — and I do not like Trump, I think he must be credited with one thing, which is to have put this issue of WTO reform on the table.”

Having been busy denouncing failed and dangerous bank regulations, I have not followed WTO for more than a decade but, back in 2006 and 2007, I remember Grant Aldonas, Fred Bergsten and Martin Wolf already opining strongly on the need for WTO to reform.

The reforms requested were not only about efficiency… they were about the real core of free trade.

For instance Grant Aldonas held that the success of any reforms, depended on “WTO negotiators recognizing where the conventional mercantilist approach has taken them [so as to] turn around, head back up the road and chart a new course to achieve the development goals that were their original destination” “Why trade negotiators need driving lessons” May 3, 2006.

In a letter, I agreed stating “Currently trade negotiations, instead of opening the doors to the greener pastures we all wish for, feels more like someone corralling you in, to brand you.”

Grant Aldonas later also suggested a “plurilateral agreement among all WTO members willing to move directly to free trade on a global basis”, “A fresh free trade agenda for Doha”, July 13, 2007.

Again I agreed: “Just like in a nudist camp, we need to separate the real nudists from the Peeping Toms. Only this would allow us to conform a true and honest free trade core. It is clear that many of those who profess a belief in free trade fake it, since how could you otherwise explain the sort of perverse satisfaction many show from entering into negotiating processes that hinders the free trade from really advancing. The true spirit of free trade does not stand a chance against these saboteurs and who are simply too scared of taking off their protections, but want to enjoy the view anyhow.”

When Martin Wolf in April 2007 opined “If free trade is really as good as we say it is, then why should we negotiate about it”, I responded: “Indeed,you do not go to a nudist camp to play strip-poker!”

Sir, most of those holier than thou free-traders bashing President Donald Trump for imposing restrictions on trade, are just like a Peeping Tom preaching the merits of nudity, for other.

WTO bureaucrats also help make WTO inutile, as a result of many of them being engaged, primarily, in the protection of their own turf.

Protectionism comes in all colors and shapes. Those tariffs and subsidies imbedded in the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, are many times more costly to the world than any trade tariffs Trump can come up with.

PS. I myself must confess that, even though I am in principle all for free trade, I often find myself worrying about that all deficits and surpluses are not made equal, some are better, some are much worse.

@PerKurowski

Allowing banks to hold sovereign debt against the lowest capital is evil, as it dooms nations to unsustainable levels of public debt.

Sir, Miles Johnson, Kate Allen and Federica Cocco report “Italian bank shares were hit yesterday after the Fitch credit rating agency said banks’ balance sheets were under pressure because of their exposure to Italian government debt.” “Italy’s central bank warns of slowdown” October 21.

Here we go again!

In a 2002 Op-Ed titled "The Riskiness of Country Risk I wrote": “What a difficult job for those assigning credit ratings to sovereigns! If they overdo it and underestimate the risk of a given country, the latter will most assuredly be inundated with fresh loans and will be leveraged to the hilt. The result will be a serious wave of adjustments sometime down the line. If on the contrary, they exaggerate the country’s risk level, it can only result in a reduction in the market value of the national debt, increasing interest expense and making access to international financial markets difficult. The initial mistake will unfortunately turn out to be true, a self-fulfilling prophecy. Any which way, either extreme will cause hunger and human misery.

In his book The Future of Ideas: The Fate of the Commons in a Connected World” Lawrence Lessig maintains that an era is identified not so much by what is debated, but by what is actually accepted as true and so is not debated at all. In this sense, given the risk that the perceived country risk actually becomes the real country risk, it is best not to assign an AAA rating blithely to credit rating agencies—perhaps not even a two-thumbs-up.”

In 2004, in a letter published by FT I asked “How many Basel propositions it will take before they start realizing the damage they are doing by favoring so much bank lending to the public sector?” 

Then by means of the “Sovereign Debt Privileges” or “Equity Capital Privilege” enacted by EU authorities, Greece was assigned, for the purpose of the risk weighted capital requirements for banks, a 0% risk weight... and consequently it went down the tubes.

A 2017 paper by Dominik Meyland and Dorothea Schäfer titled “Risk weighting for government bonds: challenge for Italian banks” and produced by the German research institute DIW Berlin states: “Although banks are required to document their equity capital for loans, corporate bonds, and other receivables, they are currently exempted from the procedure when investing in government bonds: they enjoy an “equity capital privilege.” As part of the Basel III regulatory framework redraft, the privilege may be eliminated in order to disentangle the default risks between sovereigns and banks. The present study examines how much additional equity capital the banks of the euro area’s major nations would require if the equity capital privilege were eliminated. At nine billion euros, the estimates show the highest capital requirement for Italian banks… The primary reason for this is that Italian banks hold relatively large amounts of Italian government bonds” 

That paper was written when “Italian government bonds had a Fitch Rating of BBB+, yielding a risk weight of 50 percent based on the [Basel II] standard approach.”On August 31 Reuters reported “Fitch Ratings on Friday cut Italy’s sovereign debt outlook to ‘negative’, citing expectations that the new coalition government’s fiscal loosening would leave the country’s high levels of debt more exposed to potential shocks.” If Italy’s rating drops further, those capital requirements would only increase… or worse losses having to be recorded.

I wonder if EU will put the blame solely on Italy as they did with Greece, ignoring they caused the tragedy with their “Sovereign Debt Privileges”.

The DIW Berlin paper also states: “German banks also exhibited a strong home bias, but German government bonds have an AAA rating. Unlike the Italian banks, the German banks’ home bias is thus inconsequential regarding the banks’ capital needs.”

So I would say that Germany is also on the same 0% sovereign risk weight road that took down Greece, and sadly, perhaps Italy too.

When will they ever learn? 

@PerKurowski

John Kenneth Galbraith would probably include Alan Greenspan among men of wisdom that missed the point.

Sir, Robert Gordon, reviewing Alan Greenspan’s and Adrian Wooldridge’s “Capitalism in America: A history” writes: “Three themes are highlighted — productivity as the measure of economic progress; the “Siamese twins of creation and destruction” as the sources of productivity growth; and the political reaction to the consequences of creative destruction.”, “After the gold rush”, October 20.

I have not read that book yet, I will; creative destruction plays absolutely an important role in the acceleration and sustainability of growth.

I do not know Adrian Woodridge, but, when it comes to the former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, I have an inkling that if John Kenneth Galbraith was still around, he would suggest Greenspan does not have all what it takes to write that book.

Let me explain that by quoting from Galbraith’s “Money: Whence it came where it went” 1975: “For the new parts of the country [USA’s West]… there was the right to create banks at will and therewith the notes and deposits that resulted from their loans…[if] the bank failed…someone was left holding the worthless notes… but some borrowers from this bank were now in business...[jobs created]

It was an arrangement which reputable bankers and merchants in the East viewed with extreme distaste… Men of economic wisdom, then as later expressing the views of the reputable business community, spoke of the anarchy of unstable banking… The men of wisdom missed the point. The anarchy served the frontier far better than a more orderly system that kept a tight hand on credit would have done…. what is called sound economics is very often what mirrors the needs of the respectfully affluent.”

Alan Greenspan clearly fits in with those “Men of economic wisdom” (of the East) who are distasted by unstable banking. To make banks stable, he supported risk-adverse risk weighted capital requirements, much lower for what’s perceived safe (the present) than for what’s perceived risky (the future). 

Sir, and if one is to tellthe real “full, epic story of America's evolution from a small patchwork of threadbare colonies to the most powerful engine of wealth and innovation the world has ever seen”; which is how this book is being promoted, one would need to begin with the willingness of its people to take risks.

What would have happened to America if banks with risk-weighted capital requirements had met its immigrants? Probably that imagined 1620 meeting in Davos about the future world, in which “one region goes unmentioned: North America. The region is nothing more than an empty space on the map” would not have found its way into this book.

The saddest part of all this is that our current generation of central bankers and regulators, like Alan Greenspan, those who prioritized bank stability over growth, as if these two aspects could be separated, anyhow did it totally wrong. With their risk weighted capital requirements, they only guarantee that banks will end up with especially big exposures, against what’s perceived as especially safe, against especially little capital; something which can only cause especially big crises, like that of 2007-08.

PS. Galbraith’s book also explained that, de-facto, regulators had also decreed inequality

PS. Gordon writes about “millions of immigrants being drawn in from Europe as the ever-expanding railroads, enjoying massive government subsidies in the form of free land, in turn subsidised the new arrivals so that they would populate the west.”.  I am not sure that amounted to “massive government subsidies”. If not zero, most of it must have been extremely low valued land. It was those migrants who with their sweat, inventiveness and willingness to take risks built up the value of that land.

PS. Gordon complains the book has “only a page or two reckons the human cost of underpaid labourers, including the consequences of malnutrition [and on] labour unrest”. That reads just like political correctness’ flag waving; and belief in that if only the task of development was assigned to the right kind of central planners, his kind, it would be achieved in a nice and fair way, with no sufferings and no inequality.

PS. In Venezuela, during a conference, 1978, forty years ago, John Kenneth Galbraith autographed “Money” for me. Mine was the only one he signed explaining he did so because it was a pocket book and much underlined  J His book inspired the first Op-Ed that I wrote, more than twenty years ago.

@PerKurowski

How naïve were we when regulators told us “We will risk weigh the capital requirements for banks to make these safer for you”?

Sir, Simon Kuper in reference to Brexit writes “It’s hard now to fathom how naive we were in 2016. I thought…you couldn’t just stick a false slogan on your campaign bus, could you? “Trust, lies and videotape” October 20.

Sure you could! Like when or bank regulators told the world that what’s perceived as risky is more dangerous to our bank systems than what’s perceived as safe, and the world, including Simon Kuper, and the Financial Times, believed that to be true.

Kuper holds the popular gold standard of truth being, “I saw it with my own eyes.” Well not in this case! 100% of the assets that caused the 2007-08 crisis were assets that because these were perceived as safe, allowed banks to hold especially little capital, and that has yet to even be formally noticed.

Kuper quotes Umberto Ecco: “The genuine problem . . . does not consist of proving something false but in proving that the authentic object is authentic.”

Yes, like the problem I have had surpassing that seemingly unsormountable barrier of “what is risky is risky”, in order to warn regulators that what is “safe”, is even more dangerous… at least to our bank systems.

@PerKurowski

The risk premiums for a suspect of human rights violating nation will increase, which, sadly, will also attract investors

Sir, Gillian Tett, with respect to how business should or could behave in cases of human rights violations, like that of Khashoggi, if confirmed, writes: “since western businesses are scrambling to maintain their investments there at a time of rising Sino-American tensions. “What will we do the next time that the Chinese toss dissidents in jail or clamp down on local journalists?” asks one chief executive. The answer is not clear.” “The Khashoggi case puts US businesses in a moral bind”, October 19.

How much has the risk premiums required by anyone wanting to invest in Saudi Arabia gone up after the Khashoggi incident, and after how Saudi Arabia reacted against Canada when its Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland tweeted concerns about the news that several social activists had been arrested in Saudi Arabia? These must have increased a lot, and an initial public offering of the Saudi oil giant Aramco is rumored cancelled.

That costs of course the human rights violating nation a lot… but those higher risk premiums also attract… as we can notice when a Goldman Sachs finances a notorious human rights violating regime like Venezuela’s Maduro’s.

The answer to the chief executive’s what to do question, should have to include “what our shareholders have mandated us”. Unfortunately too many shareholders also turn a blind eye to ugly realities, when for instance a Goldman Sachs announces record returns on equity.

What do we lack? Perhaps the will of a responsible elite that is willing to shame those who behave in a disgraceful manner, in a completely apolitical way. We need a society whose members would not invite Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein to have tea at their homes. 

Sir, I have not been able to find the reference to it on the web but, some years ago, in Swedish television, I remember having heard something about a Swedish king who said he feared more the opinions of Stockholm’s high societies ladies than Russia. 

@PerKurowski

The dangers of the unknown unknowns are greater than those of the known unknowns.

Sir, Martin Wolf asks, “Is it possible to know the state of the UK public finances under present conditions?” He answers “No. The unknowns are too great.” “Some ‘known unknowns’ about the UK economy”, October 19.

Indeed, but to me, the most dangerous unknowns for the UK, and for much of the rest of the world, are the “unknown” unknowns. 

Like how much of the savings for the future, of those who are the least able to manage major upheavals, has been invested in houses; those homes that because of so much preferential finance increased their prices so much, that they were turned into also being risky investment assets?

Houses are good investments… until too many want to convert them simultaneously into main-street purchasing capacity.

Like how much of the illusion of public debt sustainability is solely the result of preferential regulations, like the Basel Accord of 1988 decreeing a 0% risk weight to sovereigns and a 100% risk weight to citizens?

Any sector given more preferential access to credit than other is doomed to unsustainable debt… just like Greece was doomed by the 0% risk weight some yet unknown EU authorities awarded it.

Sir, when compared to these in general unknown unknowns, the known unknowns, like Brexit or trade wars, are just peanuts. 

@PerKurowski

Artificial intelligence could help humanity to overcome some of its very human frailties.

Zia Chishti, the chairman and chief executive of Afiniti holds that AI is especially good at “the identification of patterns in complex data.” “Do not believe the hype about artificial intelligence” October 18.

I agree but sometimes we also need help identifying what we humans for some reasons are unable or find hard to see in very simple data. 

That’s why I have often tweeted out asking for IBM’s Watson’s (or Goggle's DeepMind) help, in making bank regulators understand that their risk weighted capital requirements for banks have gotten it all wrong. Had they really looked at simple data on bank crises, they would have immediately seen these were never caused by assets perceived ex ante as risky, but always by assets that when booked by banks were perceived as especially safe.

Perhaps the safe-is-risky and the risky-is-safe might just be a too hard concept for humans to swallow and act on. If that’s the case, in AI’s assistance we trust.

PS. Another useful factor is that AI has the advantage of being able to admit mistakes easier, as it has (I pray) a smaller ego than humans

PS. Here is an aide memoire on the mistakes in the risk weighted capital requirements for banks.

@PerKurowski

Sometimes, quite often, a government’s help costs you more than it is worth

Sir, Sarah Gordon with respect to the possible consequences of Brexit for small business writes: “The British government has failed to provide the support that is needed” “Aloof state abandons UK small businesses to their Brexit fate” October 18.

Since any government assistance way too often goes hand in hand with having to waste your time, or your money paying their crony consultants for a lot of tasks not necessarily relevant to the problem at hand, I’m not really sure small businesses are here net losers as a result of that lack of support.

Besides what’s to be expected from a government that allows banks to hold much less capital when lending to the sovereign and financing house purchases, than when lending to small businesses?

@PerKurowski

Our banking systems have been made especially fragile, because of especially bad bank regulations.

Sir, Martin Wolf writes “The world’s economy and financial systems are fragile … the most important source of fragility is political… In country after country, populists and nationalists are in, or close to, power. Salient characteristics of such politicians are myopia and entrenched ignorance. Inevitably, they spread uncertainty.” “Politics puts the skids under bull market” October 17.

In April 2003, as an Executive Director of the World Bank I delivered a statement that contained the following: "A mixture of thousand solutions, many of them inadequate, may lead to a flexible world that can bend with the storms. A world obsessed with Best Practices may calcify its structure and break with any small wind."

One of those “Best Practices” has been the risk weighted capital requirement for banks. These give banks incentives to create especially large exposures to what is perceived or decreed as especially safe, against especially little capital; making our banks, and the sector lending thereby favored, like sovereigns and houses, extremely fragile.

Populism? Sir, few things as brazenly populists as “We will make our bank systems with our risk weighted capital requirements because we sure know about risks. 

PS. Wolf, during the last annual meetings of IMF and the World Bank in Bali when interviewing Christine Lagarde, mentioned: “As a journalist I am paid to be skeptical”

But Wolf refuses to ask bank regulators about what they were thinking when they assigned a meager 20% risk weight to assets that because rated AAA represents great dangers to bank systems, compared to a whopping 150% for the so innocous below BB- rated. Sir, could it be you are not paying Wolf enough?

PS. In a similar vein during the interview Mme Lagarde said, “In IMF’s view capital flow management measures should: not be first order of priority, only be used in exceptional circumstances, not be a substitute for macroeconomic and macroprudential policies.”

So why does IMF keep mum about the risk weighted bank capital requirements? In a letter FT published in November 2004 I wrote: “our bank supervisors in Basel are unwittingly controlling the capital flows in the world.” Could it be that IMF still does not understand that that regulation distorts, controlling credit flows in favor of the “safe” present and against the “risky” future

PS. Ref the same interview: Trade protectionism? What neo-Bretton Woods Conference will be needed to help us get rid of bank regulations made to protect banks but that only endangers bank systems?

PS. Ref the same interview: Balance sheet vulnerabilities. Are not the consequences of central banks huge liquidity injections, with QEs, especially for emerging countries, precisely the same as those of the 1974 to 1981 recycling of oil revenues surpluses?

PS. Ref the same interview: Is the eurozone crisis over? “No!” says Mme Lagarde. After 20 years way too little has been done about solving the challenges of the euro and that, if not solved could bring EU down… and still Wolf categorizes his homeland Britain as “my idiotic country” because of Brexit.

PS. Ref the same interview: With respect to Greece, not a word was said about the EU authorities 0% risk weighting of Greece, which doomed it to its excessive public indebtedness.

@PerKurowski