February 02, 2012

Let us hope we are not ordered to do or not to do something because of long term central-bank projections.

Sir, Charles Goodhart in “Longer-term central bank forecasts are a step backwards” February 2, writes: “If official predictions contain additional information beyond that implied by market forecasts of the term structure of short-term interest rates then well and good. If not, then all central bankers are doing is exposing that they are as clueless about the future as the rest of us.” 

That is correct, but at least a long-term central bank forecasts is, for now, not being pushed down the throat of a market which has already considered that information, like happens when the bank regulators, with their capital requirements based on perceived risk, and as primarily perceived by their outsourced official risk perceivers, the credit rating agencies, push that information again down the throats of the banks. 

But, who knows, any moment, someone could order us to do or not to do something based on those long-term central bank forecasts.