May 25, 2019
Sir, Tim Harford when discussing luck and reversal of fortunes, holds that genius followed by mediocrity [is] likely a “regression to the mean”, or in simple terms, a return to business as usual. “It can be hard to discern luck from judgment” May 25.
Indeed, but sometimes that reversal to the mean, has nothing to do with such mystical issues as luck, but is a direct consequence of a distortion.
As I have often written to FT about, allowing banks regulatory privileges when financing what’s perceived as safe, like sovereigns or houses, will result in too much financing of the safe, which will cause “the safe”, sooner or later to revert to become very risky.
In the same vein, those who without correcting for a crisis are now considered triumphant, like ECB’s Mario Draghi, only because they’ve managed to kick a crisis-can forward, will one day be held much accountable, when that crisis can rolls back on some, as it sure must.
@PerKurowski