August 02, 2016

QE-forever cycle of fiscal stimulus, with current bank regulations, can only generate a dangerously obese economy.

Sir, Satyajit Das opines that “QE-forever cycle of fiscal stimulus won’t generate a recovery” August 2.

He is absolutely right! A recovery, to be for real, to be sustainable, requires a dose of risk-taking, which is currently being negated as a result of the risk-weighted capital requirements for banks. Allowing banks to leverage more with what is perceived as safe, than with what is perceived as risky, allows banks to earn higher risk-adjusted returns on equity with what is perceived as safe than with what is perceived as risky… with expected consequences.

And credit to what is safe, mostly refinancing the safer past, provides mostly carbs to the economy, which results in flabby obesity. It is credit to the riskier future that can provide the best proteins an economy needs to grow muscular and sustainable.

And for sure, the negative rates, a subsidy for "the safe" doing something with money, is a clear expression of how obese our economies have already become.

@PerKurowski ©